When we beat Penn State by 17+, how high will our ranking get?

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We will be the worst undefeated team in the country, but not by far.
 


Face The Facts said:
The offense from last year moved the ball, but it wasn't a disciplined Tanner Morgan throwing the ball. Also, SS had his worst first half ever at right tackle in that game. Also, TJ Hockenson caught two TD's and he's not there anymore. Also, our defense is far better.

Expecting us to score 31 on Iowa again shouldn't be unreasonable.
Expecting us to hold Iowa to less than 28 shouldn't be impossible either. Rutgers held Iowa to 30.
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Iowa doesn’t scare me much. Their offense isn’t as explosive as ours, and their defense might potentially be just a small up-tick better than ours. But if you read about October stats by Ryan Burns, our defense has actually been incredible in Big Ten play so far.


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mjfelton15 said:
Iowa doesn’t scare me much. Their offense isn’t as explosive as ours, and their defense might potentially be just a small up-tick better than ours. But if you read about October stats by Ryan Burns, our defense has actually been incredible in Big Ten play so far.


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That's just it.
Our defense is playing solid.

Far better than last year.
Our offense hopefully won't give Iowa 4 turnovers. We had a lot of deep shots vs Iowa last year. We were just throwing the ball all over trying to beat them deep. With better first half line play, we should do better this year offensively.

Defensively, Iowa isn't racking up many points this year in general, so I don't expect the high scoring affair of last year.

Penn State.
It's all about making sure Morgan has time to throw.
I think the wrinkle this year for Penn State is Seth Green and the wildcat.
I think we'll give them a dose of jumbo package and Spann-Ford catching passes out of it.
 

Face The Facts said:
That's just it.
Our defense is playing solid.

Far better than last year.
Our offense hopefully won't give Iowa 4 turnovers. We had a lot of deep shots vs Iowa last year. We were just throwing the ball all over trying to beat them deep. With better first half line play, we should do better this year offensively.

Defensively, Iowa isn't racking up many points this year in general, so I don't expect the high scoring affair of last year.

Penn State.
It's all about making sure Morgan has time to throw.
I think the wrinkle this year for Penn State is Seth Green and the wildcat.
I think we'll give them a dose of jumbo package and Spann-Ford catching passes out of it.
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I was just about to say that about the wildcat. I think if we can run some Seth Green wildcat, and have him actually pass the ball instead of run, that could be deadly. Penn State is the perfect team to use it on. They’ll be expecting him to tuck it more times than not, I’d say let’s flip that script. Have him pass it more than tuck it.

I put the image of the Ryan Burns quote breaking down the Gopher defense for October. Those numbers look unbelievable to me, regardless of what our schedule for October was.

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I saw KJ Hamler went to IMG, but is originally from Farmington, MI. I'm guessing he's used to playing in cold games.
If we get him to feel like he doesn't want to be here that day, it would sure help to limit PSU's offense.

I'm still thinking a 34-17 / 38-14 win for the Gophers feels about right.
 

In discussing where the Gophers would be ranked if we beat PSU, it's instructive to look at this week's schedule for the teams ahead of us and consequently what might happen to our ranking before the PSU game is even played.

Florida vs. Georgia @ Jacksonville (Georgia -6.5)
Oregon @ USC (Oregon -4.5)
Utah @ Washington (Utah -3.5)
Auburn vs. Ole Miss (Auburn -19.5)
Baylor vs. West Virginia (Baylor -18.5)

I think the loser of the Florida-Georgia game drops behind us (especially if it's Georgia), and I could easily see USC and Washington both winning, particularly given that they're home dogs like we will be against PSU. If that comes to pass, we could very well be in the top 10 going into the PSU game. The other two games could even go in our favor, but the odds are long. You never know, though, and the Baylor-WVU game is tonight - so we'll see that first domino fall soon.
 

dpodoll68 said:
In discussing where the Gophers would be ranked if we beat PSU, it's instructive to look at this week's schedule for the teams ahead of us and consequently what might happen to our ranking before the PSU game is even played.

Florida vs. Georgia @ Jacksonville (Georgia -6.5)
Oregon @ USC (Oregon -4.5)
Utah @ Washington (Utah -3.5)
Auburn vs. Ole Miss (Auburn -19.5)
Baylor vs. West Virginia (Baylor -18.5)

I think the loser of the Florida-Georgia game drops behind us (especially if it's Georgia), and I could easily see USC and Washington both winning, particularly given that they're home dogs like we will be against PSU. If that comes to pass, we could very well be in the top 10 going into the PSU game. The other two games could even go in our favor, but the odds are long. You never know, though, and the Baylor-WVU game is tonight - so we'll see that first domino fall soon.
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We also can't forget that the committee will release their first ranking ahead of the MN/PSU game and I have a feeling they will rank us higher than the AP and Coach's poll has. I fully anticipate being in the top 10 by the time we kickoff.
 

dpodoll68 said:
In discussing where the Gophers would be ranked if we beat PSU, it's instructive to look at this week's schedule for the teams ahead of us and consequently what might happen to our ranking before the PSU game is even played.

Florida vs. Georgia @ Jacksonville (Georgia -6.5)
Oregon @ USC (Oregon -4.5)
Utah @ Washington (Utah -3.5)
Auburn vs. Ole Miss (Auburn -19.5)
Baylor vs. West Virginia (Baylor -18.5)

I think the loser of the Florida-Georgia game drops behind us (especially if it's Georgia), and I could easily see USC and Washington both winning, particularly given that they're home dogs like we will be against PSU. If that comes to pass, we could very well be in the top 10 going into the PSU game. The other two games could even go in our favor, but the odds are long. You never know, though, and the Baylor-WVU game is tonight - so we'll see that first domino fall soon.
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Typically I would agree with you, but when you have two unbeatens playing, and the lower one wins, I think a possible "Flip-flop" can occur.
If Minnesota loses, we would drop 3-10 spots and PSU will stay the same or move up a spot depending on what happened above.
If Minnesota wins, I would expect we get a jump nearer the "legit 8-0" group of teams, and Penn State would only move down a couple spots.
 



Maybe I'm missing something, but in my mind the polls are now almost irrelevant.

If we win out, the polls don't matter. We'll have our 8th National Championship, and the forum name will be changed.

If we lose a game or two but succeed in winning the West, we'll go to Indianapolis and then to a prestigious bowl game, but no chance whatsoever at being in the CFP. If we're 10-2, win the West, and even beat the East champion, the 2 losses will keep us out of the playoff. For us, an unbeaten B1G Championship is the only route to the CFP.

If we lose all 4 remaining games (I consider this unlikely), we'll be looking at the all-too-familiar list of second- or third-tier bowls.

None of these outcomes will be impacted by the polls.
 

Face The Facts said:
Typically I would agree with you, but when you have two unbeatens playing, and the lower one wins, I think a possible "Flip-flop" can occur.
If Minnesota loses, we would drop 3-10 spots and PSU will stay the same or move up a spot depending on what happened above.
If Minnesota wins, I would expect we get a jump nearer the "legit 8-0" group of teams, and Penn State would only move down a couple spots.
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I was talking about what's going to happen this week, not next week after the PSU game.
 

WE WANT BAMA!*

*we can worry about them after we somehow get to them...
 

RememberMurray said:
Maybe I'm missing something, but in my mind the polls are now almost irrelevant.

If we win out, the polls don't matter. We'll have our 8th National Championship, and the forum name will be changed.

If we lose a game or two but succeed in winning the West, we'll go to Indianapolis and then to a prestigious bowl game, but no chance whatsoever at being in the CFP. If we're 10-2, win the West, and even beat the East champion, the 2 losses will keep us out of the playoff. For us, an unbeaten B1G Championship is the only route to the CFP.

If we lose all 4 remaining games (I consider this unlikely), we'll be looking at the all-too-familiar list of second- or third-tier bowls.

None of these outcomes will be impacted by the polls.
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What if we lose close to Penn St. Then we resume rolling all of the other teams.
We play an unbeaten OSU team in the BTT game and win big.

We are 11-1 with a big win over OSU and BTT Champs.

Does a one-loss PSU got to CFP instead of us, or do we go because we are BTT Champs? Does OSU make it despite losing to us?

PSU, OSU, and Minn could all have 1 loss with us being BTT Champs.

I think they matter, but it's good we control our own destiny regardless.
 



A new concern with the cold weather is, what if PSU arrives and they "don't want to be here" and we win.
I presume that since the opposition didn't want to be here, any possible win would be discounted and therefore our ranking wouldn't move much.

We've seen it frequently with bowl games, and in our win over Purdue last year, as well as anytime an SEC or ACC team loses to the Big Ten.
It will be hard to determine the value of any win this week because of the impact weather may have on PSU wanting to be here.
 

If Minnesota were to win by 17+ as the OP posited, I think no worse than 3rd would be the fair ranking. Behind the winner of Bama/LSU and Ohio State. Clemson and Baylor would suddenly have inferior resumes and everyone else has lost. If LSU were to lose I could see them ahead with 3 major wins and only a loss to Bama.

Actual ranking? Probably 9th or 10th. Past Penn State and maybe a couple teams like Auburn, Florida, or Baylor. Most would still leave Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU/Bama loser, Utah and Oregon all ahead with a loss.
 

fmlizard said:
If Minnesota were to win by 17+ as the OP posited, I think no worse than 3rd would be the fair ranking. Behind the winner of Bama/LSU and Ohio State. Clemson and Baylor would suddenly have inferior resumes and everyone else has lost. If LSU were to lose I could see them ahead with 3 major wins and only a loss to Bama.

Actual ranking? Probably 9th or 10th. Past Penn State and maybe a couple teams like Auburn, Florida, or Baylor. Most would still leave Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU/Bama loser, Utah and Oregon all ahead with a loss.
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If we win by 17+ I think we jump to 5th, assuming Alabama and LSU is a close game. If one of those two wins in a blow out we might jump to 4.

Winning this game period should get us to 7th or 8th overall in the CFP next week.
 

Face The Facts said:
A new concern with the cold weather is, what if PSU arrives and they "don't want to be here" and we win.
I presume that since the opposition didn't want to be here, any possible win would be discounted and therefore our ranking wouldn't move much.

We've seen it frequently with bowl games, and in our win over Purdue last year, as well as anytime an SEC or ACC team loses to the Big Ten.
It will be hard to determine the value of any win this week because of the impact weather may have on PSU wanting to be here.
Click to expand...

Obey your username and "face the facts". That won't happen. Penn State is in line for the National Championship. There will be none of what you speak. If we win this game it will be hard fought and because we were the better team. There will be no "give up" or "don't want to be here" in this game.
 


I'd say in the 6-8 range. The headlines will be more that we exposed PSU than that we are even better than the #5 team.
 

Florida and Auburn will remain ahead of us because they each have two quality losses and play in the SEC
 

mcal24 said:
Florida and Auburn will remain ahead of us because they each have two quality losses and play in the SEC
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We should really schedule some SEC teams just for the quality losses.
Would losing to Vandy or Arkansas do much for us?
 

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