What Should I Expect This Season?

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Obviously, we'll all know more after a few games are played but, before that additional knowledge, I expect them to be better than last year. At this point, I don't expect them to win a lot more regular season games but I expect them to be able to win games by a more comfortable margin than last year's team and I would hope for fewer lopsided losses. If I had to pick a regular season record right now, I'd go with 18-13.
 

On a purely opinionated optimistic note, if MN has that stat line I listed above, they should be solidly in the NCAA tournament discussion--the ceiling.
I may be wrong but I think Iowa, Indiana, Ohio St., Wisconsin, USC have overrated expectations by media sources. Looking at roster losses/addns those teams may have stepped back. Ex: Iowa kept one guy, lost coach and brought in 6 players from Drake.. Indiana lost everyone, coach, and has downgraded their roster adding 7 double digit scorers from small schools as replacements of a stacked roster '24. Ohio St. kept Thornton/Royal but after that, is a Wright St. transfer going to score 19ppg? USC has Williams back (10.6ppg). Wisconsin is just overdue to underperform. They brought in nobody noteworthy and will rely on 2 good returners. Northwestern has no one after Martinelli. NEB has Mast and ?.. Penn St. and Rutgers could be terrible. To be fair, MN can be said to also have brought in unproven commodities, but in Minnesota's favor, the Big Ten may be down overall next year despite the cash influx. If so, this Gopher team could be able to battle solidly in the middle of the conference.
 

Roland Brooks said:
NCAA Tournament… Why not??

Can’t wait to see a Gopher offense that will cut and move without the ball.. and use both sides of the court offensively.. the last couple years were putrid… should be exciting..
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12 years of trash. Amazing how they fired Pitino and thought Ben was the answer.
 


SplitDecision said:
Wisconsin is just overdue to underperform. They brought in nobody noteworthy and will rely on 2 good returners.
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Lather, rinse, repeat. Someday it'll happen. But that's a program that everyone says this same thing literally every year. Tonje was nobody noteworthy. Before that, Storr was nobody noteworthy.
 



SplitDecision said:
On a purely opinionated optimistic note, if MN has that stat line I listed above, they should be solidly in the NCAA tournament discussion--the ceiling.
I may be wrong but I think Iowa, Indiana, Ohio St., Wisconsin, USC have overrated expectations by media sources. Looking at roster losses/addns those teams may have stepped back. Ex: Iowa kept one guy, lost coach and brought in 6 players from Drake.. Indiana lost everyone, coach, and has downgraded their roster adding 7 double digit scorers from small schools as replacements of a stacked roster '24. Ohio St. kept Thornton/Royal but after that, is a Wright St. transfer going to score 19ppg? USC has Williams back (10.6ppg). Wisconsin is just overdue to underperform. They brought in nobody noteworthy and will rely on 2 good returners. Northwestern has no one after Martinelli. NEB has Mast and ?.. Penn St. and Rutgers could be terrible. To be fair, MN can be said to also have brought in unproven commodities, but in Minnesota's favor, the Big Ten may be down overall next year despite the cash influx. If so, this Gopher team could be able to battle solidly in the middle of the conference.
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You could be right but Minnesota has to surprise a LOT of people to finish Top 10 in the conference. 13 teams are pretty unanimously picked to finish ahead of them by many different people.

ESPN Story. ESPN for instance picks the Top 13 Transfer Portal teams in the country...I'm citing because you mention 3 of them as teams you think we'll finish ahead of...yet ESPN has them as 3 of the 13 best hauls in the country. Big Ten has 5 total of their 13 best. Michigan, Washington, Indiana, USC and Iowa. And they don't include Illinois lauded by many and Maryland given a B+ for their transformation by the other thread writer.

Several people have Iowa top 5. I think you are forgetting the coach...the National championships, what he did in one season at Drake winning the conference title and an 11 seed beating a 6 seed in the NCAA...now he has better players at Iowa.

In my opinion the Big Ten is much stronger...not down. Everybody pretty much in any conference has a new team except Purdue...exaggeration but some truth too.
 




60's Guy said:
You could be right but Minnesota has to surprise a LOT of people to finish Top 10 in the conference. 13 teams are pretty unanimously picked to finish ahead of them by many different people.

ESPN Story. ESPN for instance picks the Top 13 Transfer Portal teams in the country...I'm citing because you mention 3 of them as teams you think we'll finish ahead of...yet ESPN has them as 3 of the 13 best hauls in the country. Big Ten has 5 total of their 13 best. Michigan, Washington, Indiana, USC and Iowa. And they don't include Illinois lauded by many and Maryland given a B+ for their transformation by the other thread writer.

Several people have Iowa top 5. I think you are forgetting the coach...the National championships, what he did in one season at Drake winning the conference title and an 11 seed beating a 6 seed in the NCAA...now he has better players at Iowa.

In my opinion the Big Ten is much stronger...not down. Everybody pretty much in any conference has a new team except Purdue...exaggeration but some truth too.
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I am just not buying the idea that Iowa is going to be great. That is a lot to ask from a bunch of guys that started in D2. We’ll see…
 

bga1 said:
I am just not buying the idea that Iowa is going to be great. That is a lot to ask from a bunch of guys that started in D2. We’ll see…
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You might be right...Vegas has them lower than I would.
I think Iowa finishes top third of the conference.
Vegas
Purdue 1000
Michigan 1600
Michigan St 3300
UCLA 4000
Illinois 5000
Wisconsin 5000
Indiana 5000
Oregon 6000
Iowa 6000
Ohio St 6600
Maryland 10000
USC 12500
Washington 15000
Nebraska 20000
Penn St 25000
Minnesota 25000
Northwestern 25000
#18 Rutgers...I don't see listed
 

IMO, I think after Purdue, Michigan and UCLA, the rest of the league will be pretty wide open, and slightly down from last year. I can see Wisconsin, MSU and MD taking a step back from being top 15 teams, and I'm not sure there's anyone to step in take over being a top 15 team outside of UCLA. Purdue and Michigan already were that last year. The best thing for the Gophers is that the league and us win our OOC games. That way we don't need to get to 11 or 12 wins to make the tournament.

I like the setup of our roster and the potential. And I think we have the potential to sneak into the tournament in year 1.
 



I think we need a very good big. Otherwise it’s 15th.
 

60's Guy said:
You could be right but Minnesota has to surprise a LOT of people to finish Top 10 in the conference. 13 teams are pretty unanimously picked to finish ahead of them by many different people.

ESPN Story. ESPN for instance picks the Top 13 Transfer Portal teams in the country...I'm citing because you mention 3 of them as teams you think we'll finish ahead of...yet ESPN has them as 3 of the 13 best hauls in the country. Big Ten has 5 total of their 13 best. Michigan, Washington, Indiana, USC and Iowa. And they don't include Illinois lauded by many and Maryland given a B+ for their transformation by the other thread writer.

Several people have Iowa top 5. I think you are forgetting the coach...the National championships, what he did in one season at Drake winning the conference title and an 11 seed beating a 6 seed in the NCAA...now he has better players at Iowa.

In my opinion the Big Ten is much stronger...not down. Everybody pretty much in any conference has a new team except Purdue...exaggeration but some truth too.
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Illinois is not listed as a top portal team as they only had two transfers. The other top players were Euros who count as recruits.
 

Minnesara said:
I think we need a very good big. Otherwise it’s 15th.
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You do realize that there have been teams from the Big Ten that made the Final Four with no regulars over 6’8”? You don’t always need a big to excel.
 

Outsider said:
You do realize that there have been teams from the Big Ten that made the Final Four with no regulars over 6’8”? You don’t always need a big to excel.
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Of course not. But it’s more the exception than the rule that a team becomes elite without a rim protector and serviceable big man.
 

Holy Man said:
Of course not. But it’s more the exception than the rule that a team becomes elite without a rim protector and serviceable big man.
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And most of those teams have a couple of excellent smaller players, which I don’t know the gophers have
 

I am expecting the players to play hard. Defense should be emphasized individually and as a team. I expect the players to play unselfishly on offense and moving the ball. I expect the players to move without the ball and not stand around. I expect the players to have positive attitudes and have each other's back on and off the court. I expect the players to work hard in school in their day to day classes. They should be humble and good people helping others whenever needed. And they should embrace and celebrate this great opportunity to be a Golden Gopher!
 

Don't expect the same run in his first year, but I expect a team that is fun to watch, just like Colorado State was in the tournament last year. Everybody was moving, sharing the ball, and playing hard.
 


How about a first year that is good enough that making the NIT isn't some kind of stretch goal in year 2?
 


Its a dead zone now, with the roster set, I've been crunching numbers to come up with reasonable expectations for each player (For team, see above) in '25/'26 season. Big Ten toughness, non-conf stat padding, finding rotations, injuries?..
Purely looking at the Gopher roster, the ten most likely contributors to the bulk of stat lines should be Willis,Jr, Asuma, Durkin, Turner, Crocker-Johnson, Reynolds, Tyson, Stephens, Omot, Vaihola. Those guys all come in with MIN/gm adding up to 249, so 49 min. need to be trimmed from that group's historical PT.
The Impactful 10-- come in averaging a cumulative 100pts/gm scoring (even adjusted for 200min/gm they still ave 80pts/gm) and I believe about 73/gm would be reasonable for MN/gm including non-conf.
That group--assists averaging 21.1/gm (adjusted 16.9asst/gm) and a MN expectation of 16.6/gm.
--TO averaging 15/gm (adjusted -12TO/gm) but getting that down to 11/gm would be nice. As long as MN has more possessions/gm and plays energetically, the turnovers/gm may not be a huge concern.
-- comes in averaging 41 REB/gm (adjusted 33reb/gm) but for MN I think 34/gm would be ok if they make shots as expected.
Reasonable hopeful expectations for '25/'26:

Willis, Jr. 29min/10pts/4.3asst/2.9TO/.2903P%
Asuma 23min/6pts/1.9asst/1TO/.3503P%
Durkin 29min/13pts/2asst/1TO/.3603P%
Turner 6min*/2pts/.2asst/.2TO
Crocker-Johnson 22min/8pts/1.2asst/1TO/.3503P%
Reynolds 23min/11pts/2.4asst/2.2TO/?3P%
Tyson 24min/11pts/1asst/.6TO/.3703P%
Stephens 6min/3pts/.1asst/.1TO/.3703P%
Omot 8min*/2pts/.4asst/.3TO/.2903P%
Vaihola 28min/7pts/3asst/1.5TO
Bench 2min/.1asst/.2TO
 

SplitDecision said:
Its a dead zone now, with the roster set, I've been crunching numbers to come up with reasonable expectations for each player (For team, see above) in '25/'26 season. Big Ten toughness, non-conf stat padding, finding rotations, injuries?..
Purely looking at the Gopher roster, the ten most likely contributors to the bulk of stat lines should be Willis,Jr, Asuma, Durkin, Turner, Crocker-Johnson, Reynolds, Tyson, Stephens, Omot, Vaihola. Those guys all come in with MIN/gm adding up to 249, so 49 min. need to be trimmed from that group's historical PT.
The Impactful 10-- come in averaging a cumulative 100pts/gm scoring (even adjusted for 200min/gm they still ave 80pts/gm) and I believe about 73/gm would be reasonable for MN/gm including non-conf.
That group--assists averaging 21.1/gm (adjusted 16.9asst/gm) and a MN expectation of 16.6/gm.
--TO averaging 15/gm (adjusted -12TO/gm) but getting that down to 11/gm would be nice. As long as MN has more possessions/gm and plays energetically, the turnovers/gm may not be a huge concern.
-- comes in averaging 41 REB/gm (adjusted 33reb/gm) but for MN I think 34/gm would be ok if they make shots as expected.
Reasonable hopeful expectations for '25/'26:

Willis, Jr. 29min/10pts/4.3asst/2.9TO/.2903P%
Asuma 23min/6pts/1.9asst/1TO/.3503P%
Durkin 29min/13pts/2asst/1TO/.3603P%
Turner 6min*/2pts/.2asst/.2TO
Crocker-Johnson 22min/8pts/1.2asst/1TO/.3503P%
Reynolds 23min/11pts/2.4asst/2.2TO/?3P%
Tyson 24min/11pts/1asst/.6TO/.3703P%
Stephens 6min/3pts/.1asst/.1TO/.3703P%
Omot 8min*/2pts/.4asst/.3TO/.2903P%
Vaihola 28min/7pts/3asst/1.5TO
Bench 2min/.1asst/.2TO
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Nice work. I like the chances of Turner getting 15+ minutes as we will need size. I think Tysons minutes are shortened by Durkin as I feel like they are similar(?). I also think Grove is going to get minutes. It is going to be a battle for playing time to be sure.
 

bga1 said:
Nice work. I like the chances of Turner getting 15+ minutes as we will need size. I think Tysons minutes are shortened by Durkin as I feel like they are similar(?). I also think Grove is going to get minutes. It is going to be a battle for playing time to be sure.
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Yea its all guess work, but the optimism comes from having multiple pieces that could over-perform expectations and fill holes competitively.
 

Zeppelin Gopher said:
I honestly think we are gonna make the tournament.

It's going to be refreshingly obvious after a couple of games that we have a real coach. Ball movement and an actual offensive system will do wonders.
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Which tournament?
 

I disagree with his conclusion. The MN roster doesn’t have to be 6x stronger based on funding. And, yes we do still have excuses because every other Big Ten school got an infusion of money. Its a beginning, but we are just now starting to compete at a more level playing field. Should be more competitive though, as the money disparity has decreased.

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Total Minnesota Gophers MBB RevShare + NIL Budget Revealed for 2025-26

We've been told the Minnesota Gophers men's basketball would be infused with cash this season... and now we know exactly how much.
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The biggest thing for me is do I feel some optimism after the season for the future instead of feeling like every season is a complete 'start over'. Creating an identity and foundation.
 

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