What Risk? We have nothing but upside

GopherinPhilly

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I don't understand the naysayers speaking of risk of hiring a young or inexperienced head coach. Whether it be a guy like Rich Pitino or an MSU Asst. or whoever...what have really got to lose?

Assuming we are not speaking of NCAA infractions...is the worst case scenario we lose 65% of our B1G games and don't make the tournament? Well check that box. Are we afraid of losing out on top recruits to other schools? Check that box. Are we afraid that top players will transfer because they are unhappy? Check. Are we afraid that our revenues and attendance will drop off? Check. Are we afraid that we won't be able to raise the money needed for a practice facility? Check. Are we afraid we will have to make a multimillion dollar payout when we fire a coach that fails? Check.

What I am saying is the things we can fear have already come true. Even the NCAA infractions (but I am not afraid of that going forward - only thing I really think Maturi did well).

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself...lets take a chance on an up and coming young head coach or Asst that can recruit, has big time experience under coaches that are proven winners and roll the dice. It isn't like we might destroy a dynasty here like a UCLA or KY hire could...this is MN, we need to risk more.

I don't want Joe Mauer running our teams...I want blasts over the walls, not singles up the middle...and if we strike out, so what. Babe Ruth is the HOF for hitting home runs (even though he also has more strike outs than anyone too)!
 

I think the risk is that while we aren't where we WANT to be in terms of our basketball program. We aren't the bottom of the barrel. We had an ok year last year (despite it being a disappointment) and a terrible coach could see Iowa, PSU, Nebraska and maybe NWestern leapfrog us
 


A bad hire and we win 4 or fewer games in the B1G each of the next four years, and essentially drop into true oblivion - not small drops in attendance or fundraising, big drops. It's not that far off from happening. Five of our last 10 seasons have had 6 or fewer conference wins. String a bunch of 4-14/3-15 seasons together and you're talking 5,000 people in the Barn. Penn State West.

There is plenty to lose.
 

I don't understand the naysayers speaking of risk of hiring a young or inexperienced head coach. Whether it be a guy like Rich Pitino or an MSU Asst. or whoever...what have really got to lose?

Assuming we are not speaking of NCAA infractions...is the worst case scenario we lose 65% of our B1G games and don't make the tournament? Well check that box. Are we afraid of losing out on top recruits to other schools? Check that box. Are we afraid that top players will transfer because they are unhappy? Check. Are we afraid that our revenues and attendance will drop off? Check. Are we afraid that we won't be able to raise the money needed for a practice facility? Check. Are we afraid we will have to make a multimillion dollar payout when we fire a coach that fails? Check.

What I am saying is the things we can fear have already come true. Even the NCAA infractions (but I am not afraid of that going forward - only thing I really think Maturi did well).

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself...lets take a chance on an up and coming young head coach or Asst that can recruit, has big time experience under coaches that are proven winners and roll the dice. It isn't like we might destroy a dynasty here like a UCLA or KY hire could...this is MN, we need to risk more.

I don't want Joe Mauer running our teams...I want blasts over the walls, not singles up the middle...and if we strike out, so what. Babe Ruth is the HOF for hitting home runs (even though he also has more strike outs than anyone too)!

Damn right. Can I co-sign anything?
 


If what it seems to be true in that a name coach or at least a recognizable named coach isn't taking the job I see no reason to not take the risk.

Probably all gun shy from the Brewster hire but this is the new AD's first hire should give him a chance before expecting it will end up being Maturi like.
 

A bad hire and we win 4 or fewer games in the B1G each of the next four years, and essentially drop into true oblivion - not small drops in attendance or fundraising, big drops. It's not that far off from happening. Five of our last 10 seasons have had 6 or fewer conference wins. String a bunch of 4-14/3-15 seasons together and you're talking 5,000 people in the Barn. Penn State West.

There is plenty to lose.

So we should hire someone to replace Tubby that will win 6-8 Big Ten Games per year like Tubby did?

I have been saying for a year now that firing Tubby would be a mistake because we just don't have the program to get a top coach to come in here...and that is proving true. So we have two choices...get a guy that we feel secure will perform at Tubby's level (see his B1G record and you will know why he was fired) or take a risk on a big upside/downside young gun.

Can't unfire Tubby and Shaka aint coming here...we are the short stack and there isn't a Jerry Kill type guy out their...time to place our bet, roll the dice and see if we can't get a little lucky.
 

So we should hire someone to replace Tubby that will win 6-8 Big Ten Games per year like Tubby did?

I have been saying for a year now that firing Tubby would be a mistake because we just don't have the program to get a top coach to come in here...and that is proving true. So we have two choices...get a guy that we feel secure will perform at Tubby's level (see his B1G record and you will know why he was fired) or take a risk on a big upside/downside young gun.

Can't unfire Tubby and Shaka aint coming here...we are the short stack and there isn't a Jerry Kill type guy out their...time to place our bet, roll the dice and see if we can't get a little lucky.

That's fine, and I have no problem shooting for a diamond in the rough in order to hit it big, but to act like there isn't any risk with the hire or that "the worst case scenario we lose 65% of our B1G games and don't make the tournament" isn't genuine, IMO. The worst (realistic) scenario is, we lose 80% of our B1G games, miss the tournament, and home attendance gets cut in half.
 

A bad hire and we win 4 or fewer games in the B1G each of the next four years, and essentially drop into true oblivion - not small drops in attendance or fundraising, big drops. It's not that far off from happening. Five of our last 10 seasons have had 6 or fewer conference wins. String a bunch of 4-14/3-15 seasons together and you're talking 5,000 people in the Barn. Penn State West.

There is plenty to lose.

There is also plenty to gain.
 




I don't understand the naysayers speaking of risk of hiring a young or inexperienced head coach. Whether it be a guy like Rich Pitino or an MSU Asst. or whoever...what have really got to lose?

Assuming we are not speaking of NCAA infractions...is the worst case scenario we lose 65% of our B1G games and don't make the tournament? Well check that box. Are we afraid of losing out on top recruits to other schools? Check that box. Are we afraid that top players will transfer because they are unhappy? Check. Are we afraid that our revenues and attendance will drop off? Check. Are we afraid that we won't be able to raise the money needed for a practice facility? Check. Are we afraid we will have to make a multimillion dollar payout when we fire a coach that fails? Check.

What I am saying is the things we can fear have already come true. Even the NCAA infractions (but I am not afraid of that going forward - only thing I really think Maturi did well).

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself...lets take a chance on an up and coming young head coach or Asst that can recruit, has big time experience under coaches that are proven winners and roll the dice. It isn't like we might destroy a dynasty here like a UCLA or KY hire could...this is MN, we need to risk more.

I don't want Joe Mauer running our teams...I want blasts over the walls, not singles up the middle...and if we strike out, so what. Babe Ruth is the HOF for hitting home runs (even though he also has more strike outs than anyone too)!

Not true we can go a lot further backwards...but I like your optimism, hopefully the boosters with money agree with you or it could get really ugly
 

They don't say Minnesota is where coaches careers go down the tubes for no reason....theres some obvious risk involved
 

The thing I like about a younger coach is they are going to go all out trying to make their mark. This program could use a boost of energy like that.

Of course there is risk - there is risk with an established coach as well. I know when Tubby was hired I had hopes for a lot more than what we got. Not to say he was a bad coach but I expected more given his record.
 



That's fine, and I have no problem shooting for a diamond in the rough in order to hit it big, but to act like there isn't any risk with the hire or that "the worst case scenario we lose 65% of our B1G games and don't make the tournament" isn't genuine, IMO. The worst (realistic) scenario is, we lose 80% of our B1G games, miss the tournament, and home attendance gets cut in half.

I disagree...the worst case scenario is 20 more years of mediocrity. Total flop results in coaching change after two years and rebuilding...Tubby Flop results in what we have...continued mediocrity and a split fan base and boosters. The only way to get out of a rut is with a major change...and we are in a position where we have two options - Big Money or High Risk. We know Big Money is out so it has to be high risk. We have no other options. If we weren't willing to take this on, then Tubby should not have been fired. I suspect Teague knew this when he fired Tubby...so expect a high risk hire once our two best safe choices (Shaka & Flip) turned us down.
 

I don't understand the naysayers speaking of risk of hiring a young or inexperienced head coach. Whether it be a guy like Rich Pitino or an MSU Asst. or whoever...what have really got to lose?

Assuming we are not speaking of NCAA infractions...is the worst case scenario we lose 65% of our B1G games and don't make the tournament? Well check that box. Are we afraid of losing out on top recruits to other schools? Check that box. Are we afraid that top players will transfer because they are unhappy? Check. Are we afraid that our revenues and attendance will drop off? Check. Are we afraid that we won't be able to raise the money needed for a practice facility? Check. Are we afraid we will have to make a multimillion dollar payout when we fire a coach that fails? Check.

What I am saying is the things we can fear have already come true. Even the NCAA infractions (but I am not afraid of that going forward - only thing I really think Maturi did well).

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself...lets take a chance on an up and coming young head coach or Asst that can recruit, has big time experience under coaches that are proven winners and roll the dice. It isn't like we might destroy a dynasty here like a UCLA or KY hire could...this is MN, we need to risk more.

I don't want Joe Mauer running our teams...I want blasts over the walls, not singles up the middle...and if we strike out, so what. Babe Ruth is the HOF for hitting home runs (even though he also has more strike outs than anyone too)!

Amen. Minnesotans (I am one of them) are so afraid to take risks. They would rather complain about things than change them. They will complain all day long, but when they are put on the spot to take action, their arses pucker up tighter than something that is extremely tight.

Swinging and missing is ok. Yes, there is risk.

Brewster hurt. But tet's give Teague the benefit of the doubt on this one. It would be very nice to find our own young Tom Izzo.

The Michigans and Ohio States of the world think we are a joke already. So is the risk that they might think we are a super duper joke?

Play for B1G championships.
 

He'll be a good hire. He's young, and will adapt his coaching style. Not like some old guy that refuses to change his, win or lose.
 

I don't understand the naysayers speaking of risk of hiring a young or inexperienced head coach. Whether it be a guy like Rich Pitino or an MSU Asst. or whoever...what have really got to lose?

Assuming we are not speaking of NCAA infractions...is the worst case scenario we lose 65% of our B1G games and don't make the tournament? Well check that box. Are we afraid of losing out on top recruits to other schools? Check that box. Are we afraid that top players will transfer because they are unhappy? Check. Are we afraid that our revenues and attendance will drop off? Check. Are we afraid that we won't be able to raise the money needed for a practice facility? Check. Are we afraid we will have to make a multimillion dollar payout when we fire a coach that fails? Check.

What I am saying is the things we can fear have already come true. Even the NCAA infractions (but I am not afraid of that going forward - only thing I really think Maturi did well).

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself...lets take a chance on an up and coming young head coach or Asst that can recruit, has big time experience under coaches that are proven winners and roll the dice. It isn't like we might destroy a dynasty here like a UCLA or KY hire could...this is MN, we need to risk more.

I don't want Joe Mauer running our teams...I want blasts over the walls, not singles up the middle...and if we strike out, so what. Babe Ruth is the HOF for hitting home runs (even though he also has more strike outs than anyone too)!

This is not OVC or SEC. It is B1G. This conference is loaded with good teams. How can you say that no risk is involoved????
 

The risk is in landing a Tim Brewster-type coach who will drag our program to the bottom of the B1G at a time when we need significant booster and financial support just to catch up with our competition. Asking an inexperienced coach to build a program that is already at a competitive disadvantage facilities-wise and that competes against some of the best and most established coaches in the country is very risky.

If we've been impatient for a practice facility/other investments in the bball program now, wait and see how much longer it will take to make those same investments if we're a B1G bottom feeder (in a 14+ team conference)....
 

The thing I like about a younger coach is they are going to go all out trying to make their mark. This program could use a boost of energy like that.

Of course there is risk - there is risk with an established coach as well. I know when Tubby was hired I had hopes for a lot more than what we got. Not to say he was a bad coach but I expected more given his record.

I was just about to say that same thing. We hired Tubby Smith, that felt like about as low risk as we could possibly get. And we were solid, but I mean, if anyone expected back to back 6-12 conference seasons in the midst of his tenure here when he was hired, they are lying. I thought for sure there was no way we'd see multiple seasons like that, but yet, five years in, there we were. Let alone never getting over .500.

Still, with a bad hire, things could definitely be a lot worse. But I just don't think Teague will make THAT kind of hire. I just don't know if he'll make a hire that will really elevate this program in any way. His best chance for that though, if not a major prospect coach, is likely with a younger, up and comer who hasn't had the chance to prove his chops at this level. The effort should most definitely be there, so that's a plus. And Minnesota has some good prospects coming up (beyond 2014), so that would help matters.
 

I disagree...the worst case scenario is 20 more years of mediocrity. Total flop results in coaching change after two years and rebuilding...Tubby Flop results in what we have...continued mediocrity and a split fan base and boosters. The only way to get out of a rut is with a major change...and we are in a position where we have two options - Big Money or High Risk. We know Big Money is out so it has to be high risk. We have no other options. If we weren't willing to take this on, then Tubby should not have been fired. I suspect Teague knew this when he fired Tubby...so expect a high risk hire once our two best safe choices (Shaka & Flip) turned us down.

You really can't see past your hatred for tubby. Tubby didnt do a bad job here. He made the program relevant again. We didnt meet expectations this season without an injury or transfer and that cost him his job. You are nuts to act like tubby ran the program into the dirt. That was the case for monson, tubby gave us some national relevancy and if you don't believe that you are blinded by your dislike for smith. The program is in a far better place now compared to when tubby arrived. I'm not upset he was fired, but tubby wasn't. Failure here
 

You really can't see past your hatred for tubby. Tubby didnt do a bad job here. He made the program relevant again. We didnt meet expectations this season without an injury or transfer and that cost him his job. You are nuts to act like tubby ran the program into the dirt. That was the case for monson, tubby gave us some national relevancy and if you don't believe that you are blinded by your dislike for smith. The program is in a far better place now compared to when tubby arrived. I'm not upset he was fired, but tubby wasn't. Failure here

You are such an idiot it is hard to take you seriously...you can look at my posts on this board...I have posted at least ten times that I was against firing Tubby because we had no chance of landing a top replacement...well he got fired...so now we have to actually find a way to get out of this hole we have been wallowing in...kind of like your Mom's basement...it is time to get moving.

I never said Tubby ran us into the ground, that we weren't better off than when he got here or that I had anything but respect and appreciation for his work here. That said, we need to make a major change in philosophy to get a different result.
 

I don't understand the naysayers speaking of risk of hiring a young or inexperienced head coach. Whether it be a guy like Rich Pitino or an MSU Asst. or whoever...what have really got to lose?

Assuming we are not speaking of NCAA infractions...is the worst case scenario we lose 65% of our B1G games and don't make the tournament? Well check that box. Are we afraid of losing out on top recruits to other schools? Check that box. Are we afraid that top players will transfer because they are unhappy? Check. Are we afraid that our revenues and attendance will drop off? Check. Are we afraid that we won't be able to raise the money needed for a practice facility? Check. Are we afraid we will have to make a multimillion dollar payout when we fire a coach that fails? Check.

What I am saying is the things we can fear have already come true. Even the NCAA infractions (but I am not afraid of that going forward - only thing I really think Maturi did well).

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself...lets take a chance on an up and coming young head coach or Asst that can recruit, has big time experience under coaches that are proven winners and roll the dice. It isn't like we might destroy a dynasty here like a UCLA or KY hire could...this is MN, we need to risk more.

I don't want Joe Mauer running our teams...I want blasts over the walls, not singles up the middle...and if we strike out, so what. Babe Ruth is the HOF for hitting home runs (even though he also has more strike outs than anyone too)!

Well said! I think about Purdue, and how Painter was brought in (with limited experience) to replace a successful Gene Keady. Painter had only head coached for a few years at Southern Illinois, but that proved to be an excellent hire for Purdue. Young and unproven certainly benefited Purdue. Purdue's program in 2005 could be considered comparable to ours now, and look where Painter's leadership took them over the next several years (BTT title in 2009, Reg Season title in 2010, 6 straight NCAA's from 07-12, 2 S16's).

Does Purdue's potential exceed ours?

It's about the RIGHT leader at the RIGHT time.

Go Gophers!
 

I think the risk was choosing to dismiss Smith. When you make that decision, you go from the known to the unknown and you place your program in the hands of the people making the hire. There's a lot that can happen when you release from one trapeze and before you catch the other one. But that decision is in the rear view mirror now.

I just can't see having gone on the way it had been going without taking the risk of firing Tubby.

In terms of who you hire, I would make the point that the bigger risk is not hiring the available person you think is best. Sort of like the Terry Ryan conundrum. I'd like to make the point to him that it's just as big a risk signing three low-salary free agent pitchers than it is signing one high-salary pitcher, even if it's for more years - as long as you include the prospect of losing games as part of the risk.
 

Brewster ran our FB program into the ground and we are rebuilding (much harder in FB that BB) and if we have a bad hire, we will recover. Might be the second or third shot we take that finally gets us the guy to bring us to the top, but I would rather swing for the fences...that is all I am saying. Tired of the safe and mediocre choice.
 

You are such an idiot it is hard to take you seriously...you can look at my posts on this board...I have posted at least ten times that I was against firing Tubby because we had no chance of landing a top replacement...well he got fired...so now we have to actually find a way to get out of this hole we have been wallowing in...kind of like your Mom's basement...it is time to get moving.

I never said Tubby ran us into the ground, that we weren't better off than when he got here or that I had anything but respect and appreciation for his work here. That said, we need to make a major change in philosophy to get a different result.

F u... You sit and imply like the program can't get worse. wtf does that mean other than tubby ran the program into the ground and there is no where to go but up? Are you f'ing kidding? Calling me an idiot is fine, have your opinion, but the fact you stated, CLEARLY, that the program can take risks because it can't get worse is one of the dumbest things I have read on gopherhole and that says something!
 

Well said! I think about Purdue, and how Painter was brought in (with limited experience) to replace a successful Gene Keady. Painter had only head coached for a few years at Southern Illinois, but that proved to be an excellent hire for Purdue. Young and unproven certainly benefited Purdue. Purdue's program in 2005 could be considered comparable to ours now, and look where Painter's leadership took them over the next several years (BTT title in 2009, Reg Season title in 2010, 6 straight NCAA's from 07-12, 2 S16's).

Does Purdue's potential exceed ours?

It's about the RIGHT leader at the RIGHT time.

Go Gophers!

Very good point. In my opinion, Painter's coaching is identical to Keady's. I said that in my other posts. I wish NT would have brought in somebody to learn a few things from Tubby and then let him retire. bga1 mentioned that maybe Tubby did not like the idea and that's why he got fired. I think based on the talent level these days, a young coach might have a good season or two but at the end it is about the type of players you bring in. Until UofM upgrades the facilities, we will not see big name players come here no matter who is coaching.
 


^^ solid 13th post, would read again
 

F u... You sit and imply like the program can't get worse. wtf does that mean other than tubby ran the program into the ground and there is no where to go but up? Are you f'ing kidding? Calling me an idiot is fine, have your opinion, but the fact you stated, CLEARLY, that the program can take risks because it can't get worse is one of the dumbest things I have read on gopherhole and that says something!

It is almost like you want to be a dbag so bad that you will write and make up things at will just to prove you are a dbag....we get it...you are now king of the dbags...please stop trying so hard.

You can try and take what I said to fit whatever angle you want...but I did not say what you are claiming as fact...not in this post or your last one in this thread...and my posts prove it.

It isn't like we are going to hire you to be the next coach...what I am saying, and will be proven with the Pitino hire...is that taking a risk isn't the end of the world and, if Pitino fails here over the next three years, will not lead to our leaving the Big Ten or dropping MBB as a sport..we will fire him and hire another. We simply are not going to attract a top name to this program and this time...so instead of hiring the "safe" choice that will get us Tubby results, lets roll the dice (like we are) and see if we can't get out of this rut. Can't get worse off....no. Is being worse off the worst thing that can happen? No, not in my opinion...IMO if we are having this same conversation in 10 years...that is the worst thing that can happen.

Doesn't mean it can't end badly...but then Tubby ended badly (see Tubby was fired). The idea that my post was in a bubble of idiocy as you suggest is why you are King of the Dbags...just like when you said I hated Tubby in other post.

You snipe all the time and take everything to black and white...what are you 12 or a cop that wears ladies underwear?
 

At least we won't have to worry about him wanting to hire his son. He only has a daughter.

I don't get the Tubby bashing and I was fine with the firing. The program was in a total shambles when he got it and the situation has improved. Not to where any one of us would want it to ideally be, but better than it was. In other words, I view Tubby as a more laid back version of Glen Mason. Is this a Brewster hire? I guess we'll find out.
 




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