What do you think the line will be for the Purdue game?

What will the line be for the Purdue game?

  • Purdue -4+

    Votes: 12 16.2%

  • Purdue -3

    Votes: 17 23.0%

  • Purdue -2

    Votes: 8 10.8%

  • Purdue -1

    Votes: 3 4.1%

  • Pickem

    Votes: 6 8.1%

  • Gophers -1

    Votes: 5 6.8%

  • Gophers-2

    Votes: 9 12.2%

  • Gophers -3

    Votes: 10 13.5%

  • Gophers -4

    Votes: 1 1.4%

  • Gophers -5+

    Votes: 3 4.1%
  • Total voters
    74
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caliGopher said:
Awesome. Does that mean we don't have to play, just chalk up the win? Nothing more predictable than college football!
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Why are you being a jerk? This thread is literally about guessing the line.
Advanced stats like FPI are a big part of how these lines are generated.
 


hello-world said:
Why are you being a jerk? This thread is literally about guessing the line.
Advanced stats like FPI are a big part of how these lines are generated.
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Not to mention it's only a 61% chance, so we also have a 39% chance of losing so we don't get to just "chalk up the win."
 

die hard gopher said:
Currently down 31-17, about to be halftime.
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Yeah, I mean, Purdue is 1-2 right now.
They lost to Nevada who turned around and got blasted 77-6 by Oregon.
They lost to TCU, who looks not very good today.

Their only win was against Vandy who hasn't won a game this year.

I'm not sure that I understand why GopherHole is so high on Purdue.

I thought Minnesota -1.5, but after watching TCU this week, I might be inclined to move that closer to Minnesota -3.
 
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hello-world said:
Yeah, I mean, Purdue is 1-2 right now.
They lost to Nevada who turned around and got blasted 77-6 by Oregon.
They lost to TCU, who looks not very good today.

<b>Their only win was against Vandy who hasn't won a game this year.</b>

I'm not sure that I understand why GopherHole is so high on Purdue.

I thought Minnesota -1.5, but after watching TCU this week, I might be inclined to move that closer to Minnesota -3.
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Did you happen to look at who Vandy’s other 2 opponents were? I’ll give you a hint - they are both ranked in the Top 5.


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Spoofin said:
Did you happen to look at who Vandy’s other 2 opponents were? I’ll give you a hint - they are both ranked in the Top 5.
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My dude. You chose 'pick em'. We're not even that far off on our expectation for this game.
I just don't understand the people picking Purdue to be favored.
 
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hello-world said:
My dude. You chose 'pick em'. We're not even that far off on our expectation for this game.
I just don't understand the people picking Purdue to be favored.
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I was asking about your “and Vandy hasn’t won a game this year” statement. They have lost to Purdue, LSU, and Georgia. Vandy may end up being a dumpster fire, but losing to 3 P5 teams, 2 of which are top 5, surely doesn’t prove that.


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Spoofin said:
I was asking about your “and Vandy hasn’t won a game this year” statement. They have lost to Purdue, LSU, and Georgia. Vandy may end up being a dumpster fire, but losing to 3 P5 teams, 2 of which are top 5, surely doesn’t prove that.
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That’s true, but getting destroyed by 1-2 Purdue, who lost to Nevada, who lost by 70 to Oregon isn’t a good look.


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PitinoFan said:
That’s true, but getting destroyed by 1-2 Purdue, who lost to Nevada, who lost by 70 to Oregon isn’t a good look.

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Transitive property applies to Purdue. Not liberty. Got it.


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I recently built a website that takes four well-respected advanced models (SP+, FPI, Massey and Entropy), blends them together, predicts the margin for each game and simulates the entire season week by week.

The blended line, including the 2.5 point adjustment for home field advantage, has the Gophers as 1.5 point favorites.

Sounds about right to me, line will likely fall in the Purdue -1 to Gophers -3 range.

Check out the simulations and projected margins by game for yourself:

https://www.simulations.run/


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Hollinsanity said:
I recently built a website that takes four well-respected advanced models (SP+, FPI, Massey and Entropy), blends them together, predicts the margin for each game and simulates the entire season week by week.

The blended line, including the 2.5 point adjustment for home field advantage, has the Gophers as 1.5 point favorites.

Sounds about right to me, line will likely fall in the Purdue -1 to Gophers -3 range.

Check out the simulations and projected margins by game for yourself:

https://www.simulations.run/


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Didn't think I'd find another web dev on all places here... but anyway nice site.
 



Hollinsanity said:
I recently built a website that takes four well-respected advanced models (SP+, FPI, Massey and Entropy), blends them together, predicts the margin for each game and simulates the entire season week by week.

The blended line, including the 2.5 point adjustment for home field advantage, has the Gophers as 1.5 point favorites.

Sounds about right to me, line will likely fall in the Purdue -1 to Gophers -3 range.

Check out the simulations and projected margins by game for yourself:

https://www.simulations.run/
Click to expand...

As a design pro, I appreciate the attention to detail in this project - a nice improvement on most other rankings systems and tools I have seen. Those tools tend to be put together by stat-heads who prefer the "huge dump of data" method of communication. Nice work!
 

Hollinsanity said:
I recently built a website that takes four well-respected advanced models (SP+, FPI, Massey and Entropy), blends them together, predicts the margin for each game and simulates the entire season week by week.

The blended line, including the 2.5 point adjustment for home field advantage, has the Gophers as 1.5 point favorites.

Sounds about right to me, line will likely fall in the Purdue -1 to Gophers -3 range.

Check out the simulations and projected margins by game for yourself:

https://www.simulations.run/


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Click to expand...

Wow. I usually watch Netflix in my free time.


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Hollinsanity said:
I recently built a website that takes four well-respected advanced models (SP+, FPI, Massey and Entropy), blends them together, predicts the margin for each game and simulates the entire season week by week.

The blended line, including the 2.5 point adjustment for home field advantage, has the Gophers as 1.5 point favorites.

Sounds about right to me, line will likely fall in the Purdue -1 to Gophers -3 range.

Check out the simulations and projected margins by game for yourself:

https://www.simulations.run/


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Click to expand...

Awesome!
 

Hollinsanity said:
I recently built a website that takes four well-respected advanced models (SP+, FPI, Massey and Entropy), blends them together, predicts the margin for each game and simulates the entire season week by week.

The blended line, including the 2.5 point adjustment for home field advantage, has the Gophers as 1.5 point favorites.

Sounds about right to me, line will likely fall in the Purdue -1 to Gophers -3 range.

Check out the simulations and projected margins by game for yourself:

https://www.simulations.run/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Is home field in college really 2.5 pts? I would have put it at 4-5 points? NFL is 2.5-3 points and I would think it would be more in college.


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gall0249 said:
Is home field in college really 2.5 pts? I would have put it at 4-5 points? NFL is 2.5-3 points and I would think it would be more in college.


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IMO I think home field should count for a lot less when playing at a place like Purdue or Ryan Field compared to OSU or Nebraska, and 11 AM start should give home field less of an advantage than a big night game.
 


fmlizard said:
As a design pro, I appreciate the attention to detail in this project - a nice improvement on most other rankings systems and tools I have seen. Those tools tend to be put together by stat-heads who prefer the "huge dump of data" method of communication. Nice work!
Click to expand...

There is often a lot of "I put a lot of stuff in my blender and this came out" ... and everything is kinda a mystery.
 


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