Week 7 Bowl Projections

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Also interesting.

Would the committee be able to keep the 2-loss Gophers out of the playoff? Especially if, for example, they avenged the first week loss to Ohio State, in Indy, and looked damn good doing it?

Again, the damn Bowling Green loss.


That said, I'd almost rather go to the Rose Bowl in this case, and win it, then have to face Alabama or Georgia as the #4 seed.

Depends on a lot of things. Helps if we get to avenge a loss to one loss OSU. If Michigan runs the table, might be interesting if it is 11-2 Minnesota who just beat Michigan in the title game against a 12-1 Michigan team with wins against PSU, OSU, and MSU. I don't remember the exact circumstances of when OSU got in over PSU even though PSU won the conference, but might risk a similar situation (which I think is BS, I feel like a champion should almost always get in over a non-champion from the same conference unless there is something ridiculous like a four-loss division winner who pulls off an upset in the title game).

Assuming that doesn't happen, here is who I think they would take before us out of our conference:
-two one-loss SEC teams
-a 0 or 1 loss Big 12 champ (presumably Oklahoma)
-a 1 or 2 loss Oregon team that wins the Pac 12 and also has a win against OSU
-undefeated Cincinnati
-Wake Forest if they some how run the table and go 13-0 (or maybe a 1 loss ACC champ, but I don't think so) (also, I don't think there is any way Wake Forest actually wins out, but a 2 loss Minnesota team wouldn't go before an undefeated ACC champ)

There are four spots, so I think we need the Michigan BS to not happen, and then for there to be 3 or less of the other threats left standing. I think the ACC thing will take care of itself, and Oregon will slip up a few times in conference. So for as long as we keep winning the dream is still alive, I'll be pulling for carnage in the SEC, Oklahoma to lose, or Cincinnati to drop one and open up a slot for us.

 

[MplsGopher]

Depends on a lot of things. Helps if we get to avenge a loss to one loss OSU. If Michigan runs the table, might be interesting if it is 11-2 Minnesota who just beat Michigan in the title game against a 12-1 Michigan team with wins against PSU, OSU, and MSU. I don't remember the exact circumstances of when OSU got in over PSU even though PSU won the conference, but might risk a similar situation (which I think is BS, I feel like a champion should almost always get in over a non-champion from the same conference unless there is something ridiculous like a four-loss division winner who pulls off an upset in the title game).

Assuming that doesn't happen, here is who I think they would take before us out of our conference:
-two one-loss SEC teams
-a 0 or 1 loss Big 12 champ (presumably Oklahoma)
-a 1 or 2 loss Oregon team that wins the Pac 12 and also has a win against OSU
-undefeated Cincinnati
-Wake Forest if they some how run the table and go 13-0 (or maybe a 1 loss ACC champ, but I don't think so) (also, I don't think there is any way Wake Forest actually wins out, but a 2 loss Minnesota team wouldn't go before an undefeated ACC champ)

There are four spots, so I think we need the Michigan BS to not happen, and then for there to be 3 or less of the other threats left standing. I think the ACC thing will take care of itself, and Oregon will slip up a few times in conference. So for as long as we keep winning the dream is still alive, I'll be pulling for carnage in the SEC, Oklahoma to lose, or Cincinnati to drop one and open up a slot for us.

Nice post.

2016 - Penn St got stomped in Ann Arbor, but beat Ohio St at home, Ohio St only loss to Penn St and beat Michigan (in OT) in the last game, Michigan also lost at Iowa (while Penn St beat Iowa at home).

But Penn St lost early in the year at Pitt (huge rivalry game). So they end up ranked #5 while OSU ends up #2. OSU then gets stomped by Clemson in the semi. Would have been interesting to see if Penn St could've fared better against Dabo's boys.


Your scenarios look correct. Notre Dame is in the convo too, if they only have a loss to Cincy. But I don't think they survive like that, I guess we'll see.

 

[cjbfbp]

I was at the Music City Bowl when we beat Alabama (Shula coaching Al.). Wow! What a great time - as I remember it. Stayed in the hotel right be the bridge, parked my car Thursday night in the ramp and never moved it again until Sunday. Perfect accommodations. Would go back on a heart beat.

Yeah, it's a great city with a wonderful and very walkable downtown. I just wouldn't like it very much if we would have to play Tennessee or Auburn there. I don't think Tennessee should be allowed to play there and we just played Auburn in our last bowl appearance. Arkansas or some other SEC also ran would be fine.

 

[cjbfbp]

Also interesting.

Would the committee be able to keep the 2-loss Gophers out of the playoff?

I would say yes because no two loss team has made the playoff since it began in the 2014-15 season and I can't see them being very likely to break that tradition with the Gophers.

 

[MplsGopher]

Well, there hasn't yet been a scenario where they would have solid footing to pull off such a move.

But yes, very good point.

 

[noamfromm]

Well, there hasn't yet been a scenario where they would have solid footing to pull off such a move.

But yes, very good point.

we'd need Purdue to run the table, Iowa to only lose to us, and defeat an undefeated Michigan/Mi State or a 1 loss OSU. Without that happening I don't think we'd have a shot.

 

[MplsGopher]

Along with Cincy losing, and Notre Dame losing again. And we'll assume the ACC champ has 2 losses. Likely Clemson. And maybe Oregon will be PAC champ with 2 losses.

 

[noamfromm]

Along with Cincy losing, and Notre Dame losing again. And we'll assume the ACC champ has 2 losses.

I think it'd be Georgia, Cincy, Oklahoma, Minnesota -- presupposing that the other three win out -- and my above scenario happened so that we have great wins, heck lets have Bowling Green run the table the rest of the way for some insurance

 

[MplsGopher]

I think it'd be Georgia, Cincy, Oklahoma, Minnesota -- presupposing that the other three win out -- and my above scenario happened so that we have great wins, heck lets have Bowling Green run the table the rest of the way for some insurance

I edited my post, but I think 1-loss Oregon PAC champ would get in ahead of us, even with your great wins scenario.

 

[noamfromm]

I edited my post, but I think 1-loss Oregon PAC champ would get in ahead of us, even with your great wins scenario.

That is a fair point -- I didn't consider them because I think they have a couple more losses in them, but in the win-out scenario they have a better case than we do. Also, I think that Pitt had a good shot to beat Clemson this week. DJ U has not been playing well and it seems like you just need to score 20 to beat them this year.

 

[Some guy]

Could the Gophers win out and be the first team to lose to Bowling Green and qualify for the CFPin the same season?

No because they aren’t winning out. But I believe a 2 loss big ten champ is in the playoff game. Especially if the win is over Ohio state for a 1-1 split

 

[Zugester]

Las Vegas Bowl all the way (if a NYD Bowl is out)

Went to the Gophers vs UNLV game back in what…2016? Anyways, it was at their old stadium, but LV is really a great place for a college bowl game from a fans perspective. A million entertainment options on top of the game! Lots of Gopher alumni etc came for the game from the west coast great time.