We really could see an NFL game where nobody plays football and just kneels all game

[Ope3]

If I go take every dollar I own down to Mystic Lake to bet on red, and I end up winning, it doesn't mean it was a smart decision. Coaches don't get the benefit of hindsight when they make these choices.

Does Mystic Lake have roulette (or craps)? I thought it was just cards.

 

[Some guy]

When you play a game of chance focusing on results is a sure fire way to lose. You focus on Playing correctly according to the probabilities. Should be common sense but sadly it isn't.

In this case, a team with a weak defense. It means you should go for it on fourth down more often, much more often than your intuition would tell you.

Hey everyone, let's play not to lose.


Sadly PJ needs to improve in this area, it is his weakness and could prevent us from being truly great.

The probabilities happen in a vacuum. The game doesn’t.


here is something people don’t know:
If everyone played the analytics, the analytics numbers would change

 

[Gophers1992]

Does Mystic Lake have roulette (or craps)? I thought it was just cards.

Good point, make that Diamond Joe's. Although I think they might have the electronic roulette, which is not nearly as fun.

 

[Some guy]

If I go take every dollar I own down to Mystic Lake to bet on red, and I end up winning, it doesn't mean it was a smart decision. Coaches don't get the benefit of hindsight when they make these choices.

The probability of red is like 47.5
Doesn’t matter when you play. Where you play. How you throw it. Who throws it.
47.5%


if I go on 4th and 3 my odds are X% overall of winning the game by punting and Y% by going for it. But those numbers X and Y change in every game and in different 4th and 3s in the same game given other variables

 

[Gophers1992]

The probability of red is like 47.5
Doesn’t matter when you play. Where you play. How you throw it. Who throws it.
47.5%


if I go on 4th and 3 my odds are X% overall of winning the game by punting and Y% by going for it. But those numbers X and Y change in every game and in different 4th and 3s in the same game given other variables

I'm not trying to argue whether or not they made the right call, I'm simply saying you can't judge the right call purely based on the outcome, which wasn't known at the time of the decision.

 

[Some guy]

I'm not trying to argue whether or not they made the right call, I'm simply saying you can't judge the right call purely based on the outcome, which wasn't known at the time of the decision.

You 100% judge the call based on the outcome.

if it’s a close call and what you chose didn’t work…you made the wrong call. And the reason you have a coach make the decision instead of a computer is to know when to go which direction.

 

[Gophers1992]

You 100% judge the call based on the outcome.

if it’s a close call and what you chose didn’t work…you made the wrong call. And the reason you have a coach make the decision instead of a computer is to know when to go which direction.

So in your world, if I hit a 16 against a 5 in blackjack and end up winning, I made the right call?

 

[Ope3]

Good point, make that Diamond Joe's. Although I think they might have the electronic roulette, which is not nearly as fun.

Agree, not nearly as fun.

I'm also predisposed against wagering on electronic games of chance, other than $20 in a Poker machine. Are those algorithms on the up and up?

 

[Gophers1992]

Agree, not nearly as fun.

I'm also predisposed against wagering on electronic games of chance, other than $20 in a Poker machine. Are those algorithms on the up and up?

They're definitely not designed for you and me to win, though I'd be surprised if the casinos were rigging them (any more than the game is already "rigged"). I imagine the potential liability is too bi to risk for a game that's already guaranteed profit for the casino. But then again I'm not an expert in this area.

 

[Some guy]

So in your world, if I hit a 16 against a 5 in blackjack and end up winning, I made the right call?

In my world, that’s a terrible comparison because one happens in a vacuum and the other has many moving parts

 

[Gophers1992]

In my world, that’s a terrible comparison because one happens in a vacuum and the other has many moving parts

I suppose that's true to an extent. If they decided to punt there, and the punt gets blocked, was that a bad decision?

 

[Some guy]

I suppose that's true to an extent. If they decided to punt there, and the punt gets blocked, was that a bad decision?

If a punt ever gets blocked it’s bad scheme or technique that is probably a bad coaching decision at some point. Yeah