We have line movement

Donate To GopherHole
P

Plinnius

Active member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
3,101
Reaction score
5
Points
38
The line fell to 3 at Bookmaker before being pulled. It's now at 3.5 at most other books. Fell a full 2 points at the LV Hilton.
 

I'm guessing that simply reflects the uncertainty of the situation. I would have to think that if Dasher doesn't play, we would be favored. I know one guy does not make a team, but Dasher is really SOME guy.
 

The night the rumor came out I locked in the line at +4. Glad I did. I might play the money line when the game gets near if the Gophers are still dogs.
 

Line movement has nothing to do with money coming in on the Gophers. The movement is the books reacting to the Dasher news.
 



DarrenTheGreek said:
The night the rumor came out I locked in the line at +4. Glad I did. I might play the money line when the game gets near if the Gophers are still dogs.
Click to expand...

I have never put money on a game before, but I tried to put money on the game that night as well - pulling a Gophers/under. Unfortunately, the first site I tried had all the games locked, and they weren't supposed to open until 2 days before the event. I wasn't that motivated, so I just gave up.
 

Knowing Vegas casinos', if Dasher does not play, they will pull the game if there is more money out on the Gophers that the other team.
 

eker0016 said:
I'm guessing that simply reflects the uncertainty of the situation. I would have to think that if Dasher doesn't play, we would be favored. I know one guy does not make a team, but Dasher is really SOME guy.
Click to expand...

I agree. Without Dasher, I'm sure Minnesota will be favored. If he does play, then MTSU will probably be favored by 4 or 5. I don't really put too much into the spreads, though.
 

dlw4gophers said:
Knowing Vegas casinos', if Dasher does not play, they will pull the game if there is more money out on the Gophers that the other team.
Click to expand...

This movement is simply due to money on the Gophers. Vegas isn't going to move the line a point based on something like Dasher being under investigation.

If the oddsmakers knew about the Dasher situation (which I would imagine they will shortly), the game would have been pulled. My guess is this is due to a large number of people learning about the situation and placing some money on the Rodents.... like I'm going to as soon as it's convenient to swing by the window.

The oddsmakers are smarter than hell but don't make the mistake of thinking they know about all of this stuff as soon as it happens. Doesn't always happen that way. Perfect example;

In 2005, the Wisconsin game (yes, the blocked punt). Gophers were favored by 5 (which I thought was high to begin with) and the MSP media and MN team said all week that a banged up Cupito WAS going to play on Saturday. Article came out in the Star Tribune for Saturday's paper, but came out like 10pm Friday night Vegas time, saying that Cupito wasn't going to play, Mortenson was going to get the start. Line never moved, I cleaned up, Gophers lose in nightmarish fashion.

Point being, they're good, but they don't know everything that's going on, particularly in the "lower profile" games like MN vs MTSU.
 



hyaluronic said:
I have never put money on a game before, but I tried to put money on the game that night as well - pulling a Gophers/under. Unfortunately, the first site I tried had all the games locked, and they weren't supposed to open until 2 days before the event. I wasn't that motivated, so I just gave up.
Click to expand...

I use allpro.com. The line is now 3.5.
 


Ogee Oglethorpe said:
This movement is simply due to money on the Gophers. Vegas isn't going to move the line a point based on something like Dasher being under investigation.

If the oddsmakers knew about the Dasher situation (which I would imagine they will shortly), the game would have been pulled. My guess is this is due to a large number of people learning about the situation and placing some money on the Rodents.... like I'm going to as soon as it's convenient to swing by the window.

The oddsmakers are smarter than hell but don't make the mistake of thinking they know about all of this stuff as soon as it happens. Doesn't always happen that way. Perfect example;

In 2005, the Wisconsin game (yes, the blocked punt). Gophers were favored by 5 (which I thought was high to begin with) and the MSP media and MN team said all week that a banged up Cupito WAS going to play on Saturday. Article came out in the Star Tribune for Saturday's paper, but came out like 10pm Friday night Vegas time, saying that Cupito wasn't going to play, Mortenson was going to get the start. Line never moved, I cleaned up, Gophers lose in nightmarish fashion.

Point being, they're good, but they don't know everything that's going on, particularly in the "lower profile" games like MN vs MTSU.
Click to expand...


News about Dasher came out on the 20th on the 21st LV Hilton moved down to - 3.5 and other books have pulled the game as well. This has nothing to do with money on the Gophers.

Money would have came in on Minnesota right away if the professional gamblers thought the line was off. Everything to do with the investigation.
 

scools12 said:
Line movement has nothing to do with money coming in on the Gophers. The movement is the books reacting to the Dasher news.
Click to expand...

It's pretty much the same thing. The Dasher news affects how people place bets.
 



Could be...

scools12 said:
News about Dasher came out on the 20th on the 21st LV Hilton moved down to - 3.5 and other books have pulled the game as well. This has nothing to do with money on the Gophers.

Money would have came in on Minnesota right away if the professional gamblers thought the line was off. Everything to do with the investigation.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't bet my life on it but I guess I disagree. A starting QB is worth a good 6 point swing; one of Dasher's caliber, particularly at a smaller school and in comparison to the backups, would even be more.

0.5 to 1.5 point movement us USUALLY because of money moving around. Most of the casinos don't even have the lines for the first games posted yet. Hilton prides itself on having the best book in Vegas and having the most opportunities available for betting and they're sticking their neck out if they still have this game up.
 

"I'd like to place a bet."
Book: "What game?"
Middle Tennessee and Gophers.
Book: "How much and for which team?"
Umm, $hundo on Dasher under investigation.
Book: What? MTSU?
No.
Book: "on the Gophers then?"
no, not on the gophers, no money on the gophers, on Dasher under investigation.
Book: "Ahhmmmmmm, ok, either on Minnesota or MTSU bud, which is it?"
MTSU to lose, but no money on Minnesota, I want my money to go on Dasher's investigation.
Book: "SECURITY!!"
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
I wouldn't bet my life on it but I guess I disagree. A starting QB is worth a good 6 point swing; one of Dasher's caliber, particularly at a smaller school and in comparison to the backups, would even be more.

0.5 to 1.5 point movement us USUALLY because of money moving around. Most of the casinos don't even have the lines for the first games posted yet. Hilton prides itself on having the best book in Vegas and having the most opportunities available for betting and they're sticking their neck out if they still have this game up.
Click to expand...

They pulled it.
 

RodentRampage said:
It's pretty much the same thing. The Dasher news affects how people place bets.
Click to expand...

I understannd the Dasher news would affect how people bet that is why the book moved the line down to reflect that Dasher may not play.

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
I Hilton prides itself on having the best book in Vegas and having the most opportunities available for betting and they're sticking their neck out if they still have this game up.
Click to expand...

I agee with your take on this but I think other books taking the game off for now is indicates this is about Dasher not money on Minnesota.
 

The thing is, they don't care about the news itself, only on how it affects how people bet. It might not be more money on Minnesota, it could be less on MTSU, but it still has the same effect.
 



scools12 said:
I agee with your take on this but I think other books taking the game off for now is indicates this is about Dasher not money on Minnesota.
Click to expand...

Actually, I haven't seen any indication that any of the other books HAVE pulled the game. Prior to the Dasher news, MGM and Mirage had not posted lines for ANY of the opening college football games. Station Casinos has posted lines for SOME games but not all of them, including the MN-MTSU game along with the FAU-UAB game. According to the local site I'm looking at right now, Caesars and the Hilton still have the game up.

Some books just don't post lines very long before the games. For college basketball for example, Station Casinos in particular frequently doesn't post lines until the morning of the game.

Again, who knows how the Dasher news is affecting this, from the bettors standpoint or from the oddsmakers standpoint. The only thing we know for sure is the line, where there WAS one, was MTSU (-4.5) for quite a while and has since moved to Minnesota (-3).
 

Bookmaker put the game back up. Gophers are now 2 point favorites.
 

Seems low if Dasher's not out there....I woulda gone more 4, 4.5
 

Maturi says he's o.k. with the line moving up or the line moving down, either way he's all right with it.
 

Bookmaker took one big hit on the Gophers @ + 4.5 from one of the pros who got the Dasher info before it became public. As is the custom, a pro will tell the bookie after he makes his bet so the bookie can protect themselves. Bookmaker took the line down at that point, as did most other places. It's back up now at -2 which is a great bet if you took +4.5 and can now take -2. If MTS wins by -3 you win BOTH bets ;)

I also had them put up a season total (over/under) wins and it's at 5 games (the "over" lays $150 to win $100, the "under" lays $10 to win $130)

In addition they're offering great bonus options 1) 100% bonus if you deposit $100. i.e. Deposit $100 and they match it with $100, so you have $200 total in your account. 2) a 50% bonus if you Deposit $101-$250. i.e. Deposit $250 and have $375 in your account and 3) 25% bonus on deposit of $251-$500 (for 1st tome depositors, returning customers can use this promo up to $2500). You also earn bet points which can be redeemed for poker/blackjack tourney entries, merchandise and free payouts.

Bookmaker also offers baseball, basketball, MMA, Nascar, casino & poker + is compatible with I-Phone, Blackberry & Andriod.

http://www.bookmaker.com/?cmpid=15468_1425
 


You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom