We currently are favored in 3 more games

[Dano564]

If you look at ESPN's matchup predictor, here are the Gophers chances to win each of their remaining games:

Nebraska 40%
Marland 68%
NW 62%
Illinois 79%
IA 15.6%
IN 40%
Wisconsin 42%

That puts us at 6 wins.
If we can get 7, that will be a really good finish to get us to 7-5.

 

[upnorthkid]

If you look at ESPN's matchup predictor, here are the Gophers chances to win each of their remaining games:

Nebraska 40%
Marland 68%
NW 62%
Illinois 79%
IA 15.6%
IN 40%
Wisconsin 42%

That puts us at 6 wins.
If we can get 7, that will be a really good finish to get us to 7-5.

If we only get to 7 wins I will continue to be disappointed with those results and PJ should catch flack for that as well

 

[noamfromm]

If we only get to 7 wins I will continue to be disappointed with those results and PJ should catch flack for that as well

I agree. Indiana, Wisconsin and Nebraska should all be games we have a punchers chance. I would hope that we can get 1 or two of these.

 

[upnorthkid]

I agree. Indiana, Wisconsin and Nebraska should all be games we have a punchers chance. I would hope that we can get 1 or two of these.

Coupled with that If you win against Nebraska, the numbers should change and we will be favored against all but Iowa. Unless we think in watching this team we’ve gotten far worse, there’s no reason they can’t beat every team left on the schedule (the team preaching the ball is the program should be able to hang onto it and have a chance against Iowa’s anemic offense)

 

[Dano564]

Coupled with that If you win against Nebraska, the numbers should change and we will be favored against all but Iowa. Unless we think in watching this team we’ve gotten far worse, there’s no reason they can’t beat every team left on the schedule (the team preaching the ball is the program should be able to hang onto it and have a chance against Iowa’s anemic offense)

They got worse when they lost their best player.
They got worse than that when they lost his backup.

 

[Dano564]

If we only get to 7 wins I will continue to be disappointed with those results and PJ should catch flack for that as well

Is there a betting line on disappointment somewhere, because at this point, I'm going to go ahead and project that you WILL INDEED be disappointed.

Just alerting you now so you can prepare yourself.

What number of wins do you need to not be disappointed?

 

[MplsGopher]

They got worse when they lost their best player.
They got worse than that when they lost his backup.

Will force them to rely on the pass more, which I think they should. Vikings offense vs Seattle was better without Cook. Granted, the true comparison is without Cook and without Mattison.

Let Tanner get the ball and try to win games putting it in the hands of our talented receivers and TEs.

 

[MplsGopher]

If you look at ESPN's matchup predictor, here are the Gophers chances to win each of their remaining games:

Nebraska 40%
Marland 68%
NW 62%
Illinois 79%
IA 15.6%
IN 40%
Wisconsin 42%

That puts us at 6 wins.
If we can get 7, that will be a really good finish to get us to 7-5.

We're 3-2 and even with the RB situation as it is, we should beat Mary, NW, and Ill. That's 6-2.

Neb, Indiana, and even Wisconsin, we should have a decent chance. Take 2/3 and that's 8-3, manage to take all three and that's 9-2 (and would make most people ecstatic to beat Wisconsin at the end of the regular season). Iowa in Pig City, is what it is.

If we somehow had managed to finish off the Bowling Green game, then it would've been like 2019, where we managed to finish off the Georgia Southern game.

 

[MNVCGUY]

If we only get to 7 wins I will continue to be disappointed with those results and PJ should catch flack for that as well

A 7-5 finish would definitely be a let down given the amount of experience this team has.

We have to be a super hard team to predict given how our first 5 games have gone along with the injury issues at RB. All the games left on the schedule are winnable, but none feel like sure things either.

If we play decent we should beat Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana. Wisconsin, Maryland and Nebraska are all very winnable games as well assuming our offense has some things figured out. Then it comes down to the Iowa game. We will be heavy underdogs most likely but if someone figures out how not to turn the ball over against that defense they have a shot of taking Iowa down.

 

[Boomtime]

Given how Indiana has basically collapsed, that's a win right now. If Wisky loses to Iowa, they'll be toast.

That said, If we lose to Nebraska this week, our season could cascade, too.

 

[Dano564]

Given how Indiana has basically collapsed, that's a win right now. If Wisky loses to Iowa, they'll be toast.

That said, If we lose to Nebraska this week, our season could cascade, too.

It's really hard to predict wins against teams you "should have a chance to beat".
Yeh, we're at 40% to beat Indiana. So we have a chance, same with Nebraska.

But then are we also okay with Northwestern (38%) being the same odds of beating us?

Right now, there would be a lot more people upset about Northwestern at 38% beating Minnesota than elation of us pulling an upset against Nebraska or Indiana.

Fans seem to get in this mindset, the one's we are favored in should count at W's and the one's we aren't favored in are half W's.

 

[upnorthkid]

Is there a betting line on disappointment somewhere, because at this point, I'm going to go ahead and project that you WILL INDEED be disappointed.

Just alerting you now so you can prepare yourself.

What number of wins do you need to not be disappointed?

Nm

 

[upnorthkid]

It's really hard to predict wins against teams you "should have a chance to beat".
Yeh, we're at 40% to beat Indiana. So we have a chance, same with Nebraska.

But then are we also okay with Northwestern (38%) being the same odds of beating us?

Right now, there would be a lot more people upset about Northwestern at 38% beating Minnesota than elation of us pulling an upset against Nebraska or Indiana.

Fans seem to get in this mindset, the one's we are favored in should count at W's and the one's we aren't favored in are half W's.

Agree with this and it’s hard to use ESPNs % chance predictor. I feel like using the S&P makes more sense or you could try do it with point spreads and gambling lines

 

[Gophers1992]

It's really hard to predict wins against teams you "should have a chance to beat".
Yeh, we're at 40% to beat Indiana. So we have a chance, same with Nebraska.

But then are we also okay with Northwestern (38%) being the same odds of beating us?

Right now, there would be a lot more people upset about Northwestern at 38% beating Minnesota than elation of us pulling an upset against Nebraska or Indiana.

Fans seem to get in this mindset, the one's we are favored in should count at W's and the one's we aren't favored in are half W's.

Spot on

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

It's really hard to predict wins against teams you "should have a chance to beat".
Yeh, we're at 40% to beat Indiana. So we have a chance, same with Nebraska.

But then are we also okay with Northwestern (38%) being the same odds of beating us?

Right now, there would be a lot more people upset about Northwestern at 38% beating Minnesota than elation of us pulling an upset against Nebraska or Indiana.

Fans seem to get in this mindset, the one's we are favored in should count at W's and the one's we aren't favored in are half W's.

It's also the case that the Bowling Green game is one that I think most everyone on here feels is a game we should have won, and that is relevant for two reasons. First, all of those percentages factor in the fact that we lost to Bowling Green (which I assume is a pretty heavy weight to have around our shoulders). So, if that game was an anomaly that we should disregard, then all of those percentages should be understated. If those percentages are good projections about our chances going forward, then that game is a valid reflection of the quality of this team.

Second, virtually everyone's expectations for this team had us beating Bowling Green. By losing that game, we gave up game that we all felt should have been in the win column. That means, to meet our expectations, we need to steal one that we shouldn't win That means either winning one as a big underdog (and unless we go to the CFP, we won't have an opportunity to beat anyone as favored over us as we were over BGSU), or win all the ones we should and at least one of the ones we shouldn't.

For me personally, the BGSU doesn't make the season a disappointment in and of itself. But it does mean that, to meet my expectations, the team needs to win that one back by out-performing my expectations in the other 11 games.

 

[MaxyJR1]

Anything 60/40 is really a toss-up.

 

[Plato]

There seemed to be sort of a consensus here that the chances of MN beating NE would depend on how NE did against MI.

 

[XMan]

After Bowling Green I don’t take any game as a sure win. We have to play out best football every game. And this team has a lot of work to do.

 

[Goldmember]

MD > IN

 

[Great Plains Gopher]

Will be interesting to see if the Gophers can avoid being blown out by Nebraska and can win at least one of the road games - Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern. Bowling Green (2-4 now) looms large. A huge effort in a blizzard against Wisconsin at home could be the sixth win. Maryland can score and has a history of giving us fits. Ky and Bucky may be crucial now and Tanner and his receivers have to come through.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

No matter what happens the rest of the way, the Bowling Green game is going to be the blot on this season.

If the Gophers win 7 games, fans can say "should have won 8."
if the Gophers win 8 games, fans can say "should have won 9" and so forth.

 

[Some guy]

MD > IN

Early in the season sure. But Maryland always manages to fall apart by the end.

 

[Some guy]

No matter what happens the rest of the way, the Bowling Green game is going to be the blot on this season.

If the Gophers win 7 games, fans can say "should have won 8."
if the Gophers win 8 games, fans can say "should have won 9" and so forth.

Tend to agree short of sweeping Iowa and wisconsin and winning the west

 

[MNVCGUY]

No matter what happens the rest of the way, the Bowling Green game is going to be the blot on this season.

If the Gophers win 7 games, fans can say "should have won 8."
if the Gophers win 8 games, fans can say "should have won 9" and so forth.

Yes and No.....of course the BG game will always be viewed as a missed opportunity. It was a game we flat out should have won but didn't. However that game has zero impact on the West and whether or not we are a factor in it.

In the end it comes down to how you choose to look at things. Do you dwell on the missed opportunity or do you move on? Teams lay eggs, it happens, as long as that game is the exception and not the rule it isn't a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

Every team and coach has games they lost that they shouldn't have during the course of their career. This will definitely be one of those games for Fleck. The hope is that those unexpected loses are few and far between and that the unexpected wins outnumber them.

 

[Dano564]

I think the only way you offset a BG loss on the season is if you win a game you really didn't expect to win.

Fans seem to believe that if we sweep the games in the 40/60 to 60/40 range (NW, NEB, IND, PUR, COL) that is what should be expected because we are better than those teams because we won (should we win them).

The only way I think you make up the BG loss is if you beat OSU, which didn't happen, or you sweep all the other games where you have a chance. (Essentially, winning out from this point sweeping Iowa and Wisconsin).

There aren't any other big games out there.

The last best big game we have other than Iowa and WI might be this Nebraska game.

 

[Taji34]

2014 National Championship OSU lost to an eventual 7-6 Virginia Tech team. While it's not the same, since VT is P5, even National Champions have boneheaded losses that should not have happened every once and a while.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I think the only way you offset a BG loss on the season is if you win a game you really didn't expect to win.

Fans seem to believe that if we sweep the games in the 40/60 to 60/40 range (NW, NEB, IND, PUR, COL) that is what should be expected because we are better than those teams because we won (should we win them).

The only way I think you make up the BG loss is if you beat OSU, which didn't happen, or you sweep all the other games where you have a chance. (Essentially, winning out from this point sweeping Iowa and Wisconsin).

There aren't any other big games out there.

The last best big game we have other than Iowa and WI might be this Nebraska game.

Again, I would contend you don't need to offset anything. The goal heading into the season was to win the West, the BG game has zero impact on that other than to make people lower our chances of doing it since we lost to a bad team.

Any fan dwelling on the result from one game is giving it way too much thought. If we were legitimately in the hunt for a National Title, then that BG game would be killer, we aren't on that level. So for us it was just a disappointing bump in the road and hopefully one that taught our coaches/players they need to approach non-conf games against weaker teams differently in the future. Unfortunately we won't be able to find out if they learned a lesson until next season.

 

[Unregistered User]

...one that taught our coaches/players they need to approach non-conf games against weaker teams differently in the future. Unfortunately we won't be able to find out if they learned a lesson until next season.

We'll have another non-conf shot against a weaker team when we face 'Bama in the first round.

 

[stocker08]

Iowa and Illinois are the only two outliers. The rest should be considered tossups. But a result falling either way for any one of those games wouldn't surprise me considering the way the team plays when they at their best and their worst.

 

[imthewalrus]

I say: play the damn games. This is Big Ten Football we are talking about and anything…everything is possible. And, when the winds and the rain and the snow and ice of late October through November come calling throw all the darn predictions out the window.

Bring on the weather and play the damn games!

Beat the Vegas fair weather gamblers GOPHER!