Ignatius L Hoops
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Watch Lists 2019-20
- Thread starter Ignatius L Hoops
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Ignatius L Hoops
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GringaGopher
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We need both of them to have big seasons .
CutDownTheNet
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As you know, Destiny Pitts is on the 20-person Watch List for the 2020 Ann Meyers Drysdale Shooting Guard Award. For more on that award, see http://www.hoophallawards.com/drysdale.php (last year's winner was Asia Durr of Louisville).Let's support Pitts and Bello by doing our part. We can cast 1 vote per position per day. Every little bit helps.
I'm sure recruits would love to know an award winner came from this school.
I was planning to put in a last-minute vote for Destiny, but learned that the voting is now closed, pending the mid-February down-selection from 20 candidates to 10 candidates. After that, voting will re-open again for the next reduction from 10 to the final 5 candidates, from which the selection committee will choose the awardee.
Of course, it will be a rather interesting decision by the committee as to whether Pitts should make the first cut to 10 players, given what went down in Minnesota and the fact that she is no longer on a team at the moment. In justifying my "vote" for moving her forward to the list of 10, I put together some statistics (see below) that I believe demonstrate that, interestingly, she is actually (by the numbers) the top candidate, or at least one of the top 2-3 candidates of the 20 on the watch list for the 2020 Ann Meyers Drysdale Shooting Guard Award.
Of course, when it gets down to the final 5 nominees, I think it's fairly certain that the committee will have eliminated Destiny by then - if not because she doesn't have a locker, then because the team that she was on may not even make the NCAA playoffs (whereas I presume that most of the final-5 candidates will come from Elite-8 (or at least Sweet-16) teams.
My argument (to the committee) is basically that Destiny should at least receive some recognition for her efforts, and that the suitable recognition would be to promote her to the list of 10 (but then, obviously, eliminate her from the final-5-candidate list).
The following is a table of important statistics (as of early evening, Feb 5, 2020) that compares all 20 candidates for the Ann Meyers Drysdale Shooting Guard Award. This table is sorted in decreasing order by three-point shooting percentage. The idea is that, for a shooting guard, probably the most important statistic is their shooting percentage from deep - since they are going to spend much of their time lined up on the three-point line waiting for an open shot (or else stepping back for a triple).
| Name | School (Yr) | 3FG% | 3FG- 3FGA | FT% | FT-FTA | Avg Points/ Game |
| Destiny Pitts | Minnesota (Jr) | 45.9% | 45-98 | 85.7% | 48-56 | 16.3 |
| Juicy Landrum | Baylor (Sr) | 45.7% | 43-94 | 75.9% | 17-23 | 11.3 |
| Taylor Robertson | Oklahoma (Sr) | 45.1% | 105-233 | 90.0% | 81-90 | 20.7 |
| Lauren Loven | Denver (Sr) | 41.4% | 65-157 | 87.8% | 36-41 | 13.9 |
| Taylor Mikesell | Maryland (So) | 41.0% | 57-139 | 90.5% | 19-21 | 11.0 |
| Jocelyn Willoughby | Virginia (Sr) | 40.8% | 29-71 | 87.3% | 117-134 | 19.4 |
| Aislinn Konig | NC State (Sr) | 37.3% | 59-158 | 73.7% | 14-19 | 11.1 |
| Becca Hittner | Drake (Sr) | 35.8% | 44-123 | 86.4% | 102-118 | 17.7 |
| Haley Gorecki | Duke (Gr) | 33.9% | 40-118 | 85.0% | 108-127 | 18.0 |
| Kathleen Doyle | Iowa (Sr) | 33.8% | 27-80 | 79.2% | 114-144 | 18.7 |
| Lindsey Pulliam | Northwestern (Jr) | 33.3% | 30-90 | 71.8% | 84-117 | 19.2 |
| Minyon Moore | Oregon (Sr) | 33.3% | 13-39 | 77.8% | 35-45 | 8.1 |
| Stephanie Watts | USC (Gr) | 31.6% | 6-19 | 90.0% | 9-10 | 10.3 |
| Kiana Williams | Stanford (Jr) | 30.0% | 30-100 | 89.1% | 41-46 | 12.7 |
| Chelsea Dungee | Arkansas (RJr) | 29.8% | 36-121 | 78.6% | 110-140 | 17.9 |
| Christyn Williams | Connecticut (So) | 29.4% | 25-85 | 66.7% | 40-60 | 15.3 |
| Tynice Martin | West Virginia (RSr) | 28.9% | 33-114 | 86.6% | 58-67 | 15.8 |
| Aari McDonald | Arizona (Jr) | 26.8% | 30-112 | 79.6% | 109-137 | 20.8 |
| Amber Melgoza | Washington (Sr) | 26.0% | 13-50 | 77.6% | 66-85 | 15.6 |
| Erica Ogwumike | Rice (Sr) | 15.2% | 10-66 | 78.0% | 78-100 | 17.2 |
Based on that assumption, one can make a legitimate claim that Destiny Pitts (with a three-point shooting percentage of 45.9%) is the best shooting guard in NCAA Division I for the 2019-2020 season, thus far (among the 20 candidates, that is). Granted, Destiny's statistics are for the 15 games before she was suspended, and many of the other players are for about 21 games - but in spite of 2/3 the data for Destiny, that is enough to be statistically significant. So based on shooting percentage from deep, Destiny Pitts is (so far) the best candidate for the Ann Meyers Drysdale Shooting Guard Award. (Is the loss of a good chance of earning this award another casualty of the sad chain events that led to Pitts leaving the Gophers?)
There are other players in the NCAA Div I that have higher 3FG% than Pitts, but they (generally) play different positions (or just weren't candidates), and thus they are not on the list of 20 shooting guards that are potential winners of the Ann Meyers Drysdale Shooting Guard Award. Juicy Landrum (3FG% = 45.7%) and Taylor Robertson (3FG% = 45.1%) are right behind Destiny Pitts, occupying the top three slots. Following that are players with three-point shooting percentages from 45.1% ranging on down to as low as 15.2%. (Apparently some of the players on the bottom of the list make their living in the paint, not on the three-point line.)
Another important skill for a shooting guard is accurate free-throw shooting. They are going to get fouled a lot, and it's desirable for them to be able to knock it down from the charity stripe. So next we look at free-throw shooting percentage. To do that, we first restrict the candidates to those (from the first table) that have good three-point shooting skills, for which we define a cutoff of 40% or higher from deep. This leaves us with 6 candidates, which we then sort in order of free-throw shooting percentage, as listed below.
| Name | School (Yr) | 3FG% | 3FG- 3FGA | FT% | FT-FTA | Avg Points/ Game |
| Taylor Mikesell | Maryland (So) | 41.0% | 57-139 | 90.5% | 19-21 | 11.0 |
| Taylor Robertson | Oklahoma (Sr) | 45.1% | 105-233 | 90.0% | 81-90 | 20.7 |
| Lauren Loven | Denver (Sr) | 41.4% | 65-157 | 87.8% | 36-41 | 13.9 |
| Jocelyn Willoughby | Virginia (Sr) | 40.8% | 29-71 | 87.3% | 117-134 | 19.4 |
| Destiny Pitts | Minnesota (Jr) | 45.9% | 45-98 | 85.7% | 48-56 | 16.3 |
| Juicy Landrum | Baylor (Sr) | 45.7% | 43-94 | 75.9% | 17-23 | 11.3 |
Destiny Pitts does quite well at 85.7% free-throw shooting (as of her last game). Earlier in the year she was shooting over 90%. (In fact, around that time I wrote a post in which I worried that Pitts might set the all-time Gopher record for free-throw shooting, yet be denied acknowledgement as such, since she wasn't on track for taking 100 free throws on the season, which would be an instance of application of incompetent statistics. This still may be an issue that prevents Scalia and Brunson from getting their proper due for good free-throw shooting.) After that, her free-throw shooting dropped off a bit. There are, however, five players in the above table that have good free-throw shooting - as good as 90% in the case of Taylor Robertson and Taylor MIkesell (reminder to team: don't foul Mikesell when we play Maryland).
In order to (finally) look at average points scored, we eliminated the one lower (good, but not that good) free-throw shooter, Juicy Landrum, from the table, and then sorted in decreasing order by average points per game, as shown below.
| Name | School (Yr) | 3FG% | 3FG- 3FGA | FT% | FT-FTA | Avg Points/ Game |
| Taylor Robertson | Oklahoma (Sr) | 45.1% | 105-233 | 90.0% | 81-90 | 20.7 |
| Jocelyn Willoughby | Virginia (Sr) | 40.8% | 29-71 | 87.3% | 117-134 | 19.4 |
| Destiny Pitts | Minnesota (Jr) | 45.9% | 45-98 | 85.7% | 48-56 | 16.3 |
| Lauren Loven | Denver (Sr) | 41.4% | 65-157 | 87.8% | 36-41 | 13.9 |
| Taylor Mikesell | Maryland (So) | 41.0% | 57-139 | 90.5% | 19-21 | 11.0 |
Destiny's 16.3 points per game comes in third place in this final sort. In contrast, Taylor MIkesell is more of a role player with 11 points per game. In first and second place (nearly tied at 20.7 ad 19.4 points per game, respectively) are Taylor Robertson and Jocelyn Willoughby. I would argue that average points per game is more a function of team composition and whether or not it is a high-scoring team, in general, than a strict figure of merit for evaluating shooting guards. In any event, even if you want to incorporate average points as in the above table, Destiny Pitts still lands within the top three in terms of average points per game. And, among the top three points-per-game entries, Destiny Pitts wins the title for best three-point shooting percentage - just narrowly edging out Taylor Robertson.
Based on the above logic, you could argue that Destiny Pitts is either the best of the 20 watch-list shooting guards (based on three-point shooting percentage alone) or else is in the top two (based on being among the top-three three-point shooting percentages plus (within that) among the top-two in average points per game.
So to the committee who will soon down-select from 20 candidates to 10 candidates for the 2020 Ann Meyers Drysdale Shooting Guard Award, I argue that Destiny Pitts *needs to be* among the 10 selected. It would be a travesty to reject Destiny Pitts, who is currently either the top candidate or at least among the top-two candidates. She certainly is not in the bottom 10 candidates!
Of course, I'm aware that there might be some sentiment that she no longer belongs on the candidate list, just as a technicality due to being team-less at the moment. And I suppose you might argue that she may get another chance in her senior year. But after a year of being dormant due to the mandatory NCAA transfer wait, she may no longer be in the minds of the committee to even make it to the pre-season watch list of 20 at that time. So put her on the list of 10. And let us vote for her a few more times. There's plenty of time to winnow her off of the final list of 5 (and plenty of reason too, since the Gophers will not be an Elite-8 team this year).
Last edited:
thatjanelpick
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I respect your passion and data but I have a hard time imagining them picking someone for this award who is not currently playing and, regardless of the specific circumstances, quit on her team in mid-season.
I think it's time to put this whole Destiny Pitts episode to rest. She's gone, and we'll probably never know exactly what happened. For my part, I'm going to support the team that's on the floor, and look forward to (hopefully) a brighter future.
CutDownTheNet
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As you know, Taiye Bello is on the 20-person Watch List for the 2020 Katrina McClain Power Forward Award. For more on that award, see http://www.hoophallawards.com/mcclain.php . Last year, the winner was Napheesa Collier (UConn), who was drafted by the Lynx and went on to become the WNBA Rookie of the Year, playing a mix of power forward and small forward.
I learned that the voting is now closed, pending the mid-February down-selection from 20 candidates to 10 candidates. After that, voting will re-open again for the next reduction from 10 to the 5 finalists, from which the selection committee will choose the awardee.
This post constitutes my rationale and suggestion for the Katrina McClain committee to include Taiye in the more select list of 10 power forwards to be further considered for the Katrina McClain Award. We should first ask, "what traits should a good power forward have?"
One thing that comes to mind is double-doubles. Around these parts, Taiye Bello is known by the nickname of "Double-Double Machine" - so she certainly qualifies in that aspect, which we'll look at later. A broader definition of what qualifies for a good power forward might stem from the player I consider to be the "gold standard" for the job - namely, Rebekkah Brunson. I had the privilege of watching her play alongside LIndsay Whalen on the Lynx for many years. I have long thought that, as Taiye Bello honed her craft, she was becoming more and more like "Rebekkah Brunson, Jr." Recently, Lindsay Whalen herself seconded that motion in her post-game presser following the Rutgers game in which she described Bello's All-American caliber performance in that game as follows ...
"Taiye Bello and Rebekkah Brunson have a different will to go get the ball, the way they move as the ball is going to the basket. They read their teammates' shots to figure out where it is coming off. But then at the end of the day, rebounding is just all about heart. I have been very fortunate in my career to play with Rebekah Brunson for nine years and now coach Taiye for these first years in my coaching career. To have somebody that just has that much heart to get the ball that many times and never stop. It is just something that they have. They just have that heart and the will to go get it done."
In the sequel, we'll try to analyze the relevant statistics to assess where Taiye falls among the spectrum of 20 current candidates for the Katrina McClain Award - with an eye toward determining whether she should be considered to land within the top ten that will be moving forward in the awards process.
The following is a table of important statistics (as of early evening, Feb 5, 2020) that compares all 20 candidates for the Katrina McClean Power Forward Award. It contains many season-to-date statistics for the 20 candidates being considered for the top-ten candidates.
For the first phase of this analysis, I've introduced a hybrid statistic that is intended to emphasize the value of double-doubles, but is not the double-double statistic per se (to be looked at later). The problem with double-doubles is that in each game, it is a binary statistic - either you do or don't get one in that game - thus making for a rather harsh square wave curve (over games) that does not put enough emphasis on how the player played in those games where a double-double was not attained. So instead, we first focus on the hybrid statistic of average "points plus rebounds" - with the gold standard being having this hybrid statistic at 20 or more (since 20 would be a prerequisite for getting a double-double in any given game). This first version of the cumulative (to date) statistics table is thus sorted in decreasing order by points + rebounds.
Note that Summer Hemphill of Buffalo (Sr) did not play. She was on the roster but no statistics for this season, and I did not find any explanation of this. Perhaps she was ill, or maybe decided to graduate early (she was a Senior) - not sure what the story is there.
From that initial sorting that is representative of the "potential ability" to produce double-doubles, one can note that the (19) candidates are quite impressive. Just based on the hybrid statistic points + rebounds alone, Taiye Bello comes in 10th place (so she's in the top-half so far). She has a points + rebounds = 23.0. There are other candidates ranking higher than her on this hybrid statistic, who are typically higher scorers - that is, they are probably the primary scorer on their team, whereas Taiye is the second-highest scorer on the Gophers, and thus more of a role player. So, while high scoring is certainly a good thing, the extent of your scoring is also a function of your role on your team - so that it should no be considered the primary factor (in my opinion).
Right next to the points + rebounds statistic is the actual number of double-doubles logged by each player, and further to the right is another column measuring double-doubles per game played. (Note that "< 7" or a similar text message for per-game variant means that the NCAA statistics on double-doubles did not go low enough to report that player. They may have had no double-doubles at all, for all we know. I may update these later with actual numbers if I have time.) Unique Thompson is the clear winner in terms of double-doubles - with 19 double-doubles in 20 games played, and with an average of 17 points per game, for a hybrid points + rebounds of 29.15 (about 6 higher than Taiye's 23.0).
Let's eliminate from consideration the bottom six contenders from the above table, all of whom have points + rebounds less than 21, and none of whom are in contention based on double-doubles alone. Interestingly, note that this method of prioritizing candidates eliminates Lauren Cox of Baylor (and implies that Taiye Bello is a better candidate than Lauren Cox, at least by my method of analysis). There was speculation last year that (because of her age, apparently) she might jump ship from Baylor and enter the WNBA Draft. She did not do so, wanting to stick around for her Senior year. She must have had an injury, as noted by her 13 games played versus typically 21 games for the others.
Then let's sort the remaining players in order of offensive rebounds (and in order of defensive rebounds if there's a tie).
Offensive rebounding is a crucial skill for a power forward. Unless they're double- or triple-teamed (which happens a lot, actually), a power forward can usually convert an offensive rebound into either a putback for two points (with high probability), or a kick-out for the potentiality of a three-point score. The Gophers are averaging around 40% shooting from deep, so the expected point production from a kickout that results in a good look and clean shot is about 3 * 40% = 1.2 points. A putback is worth up to 2 points if made. So, for a power forward at the University of MInnesota, for instance, the expected value of an offensive rebound is somewhere between 1.2 to 2 points.
Taiye Bello was third-best in the NCAA Division I last year in offensive rebounds per game. The two players that beat her out last year were much taller Centers Teaira McCowan (Mississippi St) and Kristine Anigwe (Cal) at 5.72 and 5.45 offensive rebounds per game, respectively (both of whom were drafted and played in the WNBA). Last year, Taiye logged an average of 4.90 offensive rebounds per game, to take third place. Thus far this year, Taiye is averaging 4.48 offensive rebounds per game - a little less than last year (perhaps due to a taller Big Ten), but good for second place within the 19 candidates for the 2020 Katrina McClain Power Forward Award. She is edged out by Unique Thompson (who has 5.25 offensive rebounds per game) among the McClain contenders.
Taiye also averages 1.9 blocks per game, which beats all remaining contenders except Vermont's Hanna Crymble (of Champlin). She has a respectable free-throw percentage over 70% (improved this year over prior years) that is among the top 7 of the remaining contenders. Her field-goal percentage is 53.8%, which is in the top 5 remaining contenders. During the non-conference season she was shooting over 60%.
In short, it seems fairly obvious that Taiye Bello is among the top half-dozen or so remaining contenders for the 2020 Katrina McClain Power Forward Award.
So to the committee who will soon down-select from 20 candidates to 10 candidates for the 2020 Katrina McClain Power Forward Award, I argue that Taiye Bello *needs to be* among the 10 selected.
I learned that the voting is now closed, pending the mid-February down-selection from 20 candidates to 10 candidates. After that, voting will re-open again for the next reduction from 10 to the 5 finalists, from which the selection committee will choose the awardee.
This post constitutes my rationale and suggestion for the Katrina McClain committee to include Taiye in the more select list of 10 power forwards to be further considered for the Katrina McClain Award. We should first ask, "what traits should a good power forward have?"
One thing that comes to mind is double-doubles. Around these parts, Taiye Bello is known by the nickname of "Double-Double Machine" - so she certainly qualifies in that aspect, which we'll look at later. A broader definition of what qualifies for a good power forward might stem from the player I consider to be the "gold standard" for the job - namely, Rebekkah Brunson. I had the privilege of watching her play alongside LIndsay Whalen on the Lynx for many years. I have long thought that, as Taiye Bello honed her craft, she was becoming more and more like "Rebekkah Brunson, Jr." Recently, Lindsay Whalen herself seconded that motion in her post-game presser following the Rutgers game in which she described Bello's All-American caliber performance in that game as follows ...
"Taiye Bello and Rebekkah Brunson have a different will to go get the ball, the way they move as the ball is going to the basket. They read their teammates' shots to figure out where it is coming off. But then at the end of the day, rebounding is just all about heart. I have been very fortunate in my career to play with Rebekah Brunson for nine years and now coach Taiye for these first years in my coaching career. To have somebody that just has that much heart to get the ball that many times and never stop. It is just something that they have. They just have that heart and the will to go get it done."
In the sequel, we'll try to analyze the relevant statistics to assess where Taiye falls among the spectrum of 20 current candidates for the Katrina McClain Award - with an eye toward determining whether she should be considered to land within the top ten that will be moving forward in the awards process.
The following is a table of important statistics (as of early evening, Feb 5, 2020) that compares all 20 candidates for the Katrina McClean Power Forward Award. It contains many season-to-date statistics for the 20 candidates being considered for the top-ten candidates.
For the first phase of this analysis, I've introduced a hybrid statistic that is intended to emphasize the value of double-doubles, but is not the double-double statistic per se (to be looked at later). The problem with double-doubles is that in each game, it is a binary statistic - either you do or don't get one in that game - thus making for a rather harsh square wave curve (over games) that does not put enough emphasis on how the player played in those games where a double-double was not attained. So instead, we first focus on the hybrid statistic of average "points plus rebounds" - with the gold standard being having this hybrid statistic at 20 or more (since 20 would be a prerequisite for getting a double-double in any given game). This first version of the cumulative (to date) statistics table is thus sorted in decreasing order by points + rebounds.
Note that Summer Hemphill of Buffalo (Sr) did not play. She was on the roster but no statistics for this season, and I did not find any explanation of this. Perhaps she was ill, or maybe decided to graduate early (she was a Senior) - not sure what the story is there.
| Name | School (Cl) | G | Dbl-Dbl | Pts + Reb | Pts/G | Off Reb/G | Def Reb/G | Reb/G | Blk/G | Stl/G | FG% | FT% | Dbl-Dbl/G |
| Unique Thompson | Auburn (Jr) | 20 | 19 | 29.15 | 17.00 | 5.25 | 6.90 | 12.15 | 0.50 | 1.70 | 58.7% | 71.4% | 0.95 |
| Bella Alarie | Princeton (Sr) | 12 | < 7 | 28.50 | 20.08 | 2.33 | 6.08 | 8.42 | ? | ? | 49.7% | 78.7% | < 0.58 |
| Peyton Williams | Kansas State (Sr) | 19 | 11 | 28.37 | 16.53 | 3.79 | 8.05 | 11.84 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 46.8% | 74.4% | 0.58 |
| Hanna Crymble | Vermont (Sr) | 23 | 9 | 26.96 | 18.52 | 2.17 | 6.26 | 8.43 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 45.3% | 81.9% | 0.39 |
| Kiah Gillespie | Florida State () | 22 | 9 | 26.86 | 17.95 | 2.27 | 6.64 | 8.91 | 0.45 | 0.68 | 44.4% | 68.9% | 0.41 |
| Ruthy Hebard | Oregon (Sr) | 22 | 11 | 26.23 | 16.50 | 3.64 | 6.09 | 9.73 | 1.36 | 1.09 | 66.8% | 64.9% | 0.50 |
| Naz Hillmon | Michigan (So) | 21 | 6 | 26.10 | 17.29 | 4.33 | 4.48 | 8.81 | 0.19 | 0.81 | 57.1% | 65.2% | 0.29 |
| Sara Rhine | Drake (RSr) | 21 | < 7 | 24.95 | 17.95 | 1.57 | 5.43 | 7.00 | 1.19 | 0.76 | 65.5% | 84.1% | < 0.33 |
| Cate Reese | Arizona (So) | 21 | < 7 | 23.43 | 15.05 | 2.38 | 6.00 | 8.38 | 0.86 | 1.33 | 49.4% | 79.0% | < 0.33 |
| Taiye Bello | Minnesota (Sr) | 21 | 11 | 23.00 | 12.52 | 4.48 | 6.00 | 10.48 | 1.90 | 1.10 | 53.8% | 70.8% | 0.52 |
| Ayana Mitchell | LSU (Sr) | 21 | 9 | 22.95 | 14.05 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 8.90 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 67.9% | 45.8% | 0.43 |
| Joyner Holmes | Texas (Sr) | 20 | 11 | 22.90 | 14.00 | 2.20 | 6.70 | 8.90 | 0.85 | 1.35 | 44.0% | 62.9% | 0.55 |
| N'dea Jones | Texas A&M (Jr) | 22 | 12 | 22.32 | 11.36 | 3.59 | 7.36 | 10.95 | 0.68 | 1.45 | 50.8% | 68.6% | 0.55 |
| Lauren Cox | Baylor (Sr) | 13 | < 7 | 20.31 | 12.23 | 2.38 | 5.69 | 8.08 | 2.38 | 1.15 | 43.6% | 60.5% | < 0.54 |
| Brooklyn McDavid | Pacific (Jr) | 22 | < 7 | 20.23 | 15.09 | 2.00 | 3.14 | 5.14 | 0.23 | 1.14 | 51.3% | 76.2% | < 0.32 |
| Leaonna Odom | Duke (Sr) | 19 | < 7 | 20.16 | 14.37 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 5.79 | 0.63 | 2.00 | 53.7% | 65.4% | < 0.37 |
| Eleah Parker | Penn (Jr) | 16 | < 7 | 16.88 | 10.31 | 2.88 | 3.69 | 6.56 | 2.25 | 0.88 | 46.3% | 33.3% | < 0.44 |
| Stephanie Jones | Maryland (Sr) | 22 | < 7 | 15.50 | 10.27 | 2.59 | 2.64 | 5.23 | 0.82 | 1.41 | 56.9% | 68.8% | < 0.32 |
| Francesca Belibi | Stanford (Fr) | 21 | < 7 | 11.81 | 6.81 | 1.90 | 3.10 | 5.00 | 0.67 | 0.76 | 56.9% | 61.4% | < 0.33 |
From that initial sorting that is representative of the "potential ability" to produce double-doubles, one can note that the (19) candidates are quite impressive. Just based on the hybrid statistic points + rebounds alone, Taiye Bello comes in 10th place (so she's in the top-half so far). She has a points + rebounds = 23.0. There are other candidates ranking higher than her on this hybrid statistic, who are typically higher scorers - that is, they are probably the primary scorer on their team, whereas Taiye is the second-highest scorer on the Gophers, and thus more of a role player. So, while high scoring is certainly a good thing, the extent of your scoring is also a function of your role on your team - so that it should no be considered the primary factor (in my opinion).
Right next to the points + rebounds statistic is the actual number of double-doubles logged by each player, and further to the right is another column measuring double-doubles per game played. (Note that "< 7" or a similar text message for per-game variant means that the NCAA statistics on double-doubles did not go low enough to report that player. They may have had no double-doubles at all, for all we know. I may update these later with actual numbers if I have time.) Unique Thompson is the clear winner in terms of double-doubles - with 19 double-doubles in 20 games played, and with an average of 17 points per game, for a hybrid points + rebounds of 29.15 (about 6 higher than Taiye's 23.0).
Let's eliminate from consideration the bottom six contenders from the above table, all of whom have points + rebounds less than 21, and none of whom are in contention based on double-doubles alone. Interestingly, note that this method of prioritizing candidates eliminates Lauren Cox of Baylor (and implies that Taiye Bello is a better candidate than Lauren Cox, at least by my method of analysis). There was speculation last year that (because of her age, apparently) she might jump ship from Baylor and enter the WNBA Draft. She did not do so, wanting to stick around for her Senior year. She must have had an injury, as noted by her 13 games played versus typically 21 games for the others.
Then let's sort the remaining players in order of offensive rebounds (and in order of defensive rebounds if there's a tie).
| Name | School (Cl) | G | Dbl-Dbl | Pts + Reb | Pts/G | Off Reb/G | Def Reb/G | Reb/G | Blk/G | Stl/G | FG% | FT% |
| Unique Thompson | Auburn (Jr) | 20 | 19 | 29.15 | 17.00 | 5.25 | 6.90 | 12.15 | 0.50 | 1.70 | 58.7% | 71.4% |
| Taiye Bello | Minnesota (Sr) | 21 | 11 | 23.00 | 12.52 | 4.48 | 6.00 | 10.48 | 1.90 | 1.10 | 53.8% | 70.8% |
| Naz Hillmon | Michigan (So) | 21 | 6 | 26.10 | 17.29 | 4.33 | 4.48 | 8.81 | 0.19 | 0.81 | 57.1% | 65.2% |
| Ayana Mitchell | LSU (Sr) | 21 | 9 | 22.95 | 14.05 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 8.90 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 67.9% | 45.8% |
| Peyton Williams | Kansas State (Sr) | 19 | 11 | 28.37 | 16.53 | 3.79 | 8.05 | 11.84 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 46.8% | 74.4% |
| Ruthy Hebard | Oregon (Sr) | 22 | 11 | 26.23 | 16.50 | 3.64 | 6.09 | 9.73 | 1.36 | 1.09 | 66.8% | 64.9% |
| N'dea Jones | Texas A&M (Jr) | 22 | 12 | 22.32 | 11.36 | 3.59 | 7.36 | 10.95 | 0.68 | 1.45 | 50.8% | 68.6% |
| Cate Reese | Arizona (So) | 21 | < 7 | 23.43 | 15.05 | 2.38 | 6.00 | 8.38 | 0.86 | 1.33 | 49.4% | 79.0% |
| Bella Alarie | Princeton (Sr) | 12 | < 7 | 28.50 | 20.08 | 2.33 | 6.08 | 8.42 | ? | ? | 49.7% | 78.7% |
| Kiah Gillespie | Florida State () | 22 | 9 | 26.86 | 17.95 | 2.27 | 6.64 | 8.91 | 0.45 | 0.68 | 44.4% | 68.9% |
| Joyner Holmes | Texas (Sr) | 20 | 11 | 22.90 | 14.00 | 2.20 | 6.70 | 8.90 | 0.85 | 1.35 | 44.0% | 62.9% |
| Hanna Crymble | Vermont (Sr) | 23 | 9 | 26.96 | 18.52 | 2.17 | 6.26 | 8.43 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 45.3% | 81.9% |
| Sara Rhine | Drake (RSr) | 21 | < 7 | 24.95 | 17.95 | 1.57 | 5.43 | 7.00 | 1.19 | 0.76 | 65.5% | 84.1% |
Offensive rebounding is a crucial skill for a power forward. Unless they're double- or triple-teamed (which happens a lot, actually), a power forward can usually convert an offensive rebound into either a putback for two points (with high probability), or a kick-out for the potentiality of a three-point score. The Gophers are averaging around 40% shooting from deep, so the expected point production from a kickout that results in a good look and clean shot is about 3 * 40% = 1.2 points. A putback is worth up to 2 points if made. So, for a power forward at the University of MInnesota, for instance, the expected value of an offensive rebound is somewhere between 1.2 to 2 points.
Taiye Bello was third-best in the NCAA Division I last year in offensive rebounds per game. The two players that beat her out last year were much taller Centers Teaira McCowan (Mississippi St) and Kristine Anigwe (Cal) at 5.72 and 5.45 offensive rebounds per game, respectively (both of whom were drafted and played in the WNBA). Last year, Taiye logged an average of 4.90 offensive rebounds per game, to take third place. Thus far this year, Taiye is averaging 4.48 offensive rebounds per game - a little less than last year (perhaps due to a taller Big Ten), but good for second place within the 19 candidates for the 2020 Katrina McClain Power Forward Award. She is edged out by Unique Thompson (who has 5.25 offensive rebounds per game) among the McClain contenders.
Taiye also averages 1.9 blocks per game, which beats all remaining contenders except Vermont's Hanna Crymble (of Champlin). She has a respectable free-throw percentage over 70% (improved this year over prior years) that is among the top 7 of the remaining contenders. Her field-goal percentage is 53.8%, which is in the top 5 remaining contenders. During the non-conference season she was shooting over 60%.
In short, it seems fairly obvious that Taiye Bello is among the top half-dozen or so remaining contenders for the 2020 Katrina McClain Power Forward Award.
So to the committee who will soon down-select from 20 candidates to 10 candidates for the 2020 Katrina McClain Power Forward Award, I argue that Taiye Bello *needs to be* among the 10 selected.
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CutDownTheNet
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I’m not suggesting she’s going to win the award, nor should she under the circumstances. I wrote this from two perspectives. One to say, oh look, Destiny *was* on a trajectory toward possibly (or maybe the correct word is probably) being among the 5 finalists for this award (before everything fell apart). Second, I wrote from the perspective of “as if” I had an audience with the award selection committee (yeah, I know, fat chance), and was trying to convince them that although she will/should not be the winner, and (given the unusual situation) probably should not be one of 5 finalists, my plea was to honor her achievements simply by promoting her to one of the 10 semifinalists. What’s the harm in that? After all, she was one of 1-3 leading candidates when the sky started falling.I respect your passion and data but I have a hard time imagining them picking someone for this award who is not currently playing and, regardless of the specific circumstances, quit on her team in mid-season.
And I know one could argue against that too, which is fine. But just my opinion that she deserves some bit of recognition.
Also, I thought that fans would appreciate a mini-summary of her half-season worth of statistics - many of which are very impressive. I was working on award-down-selection-time stats for Taiye as well, so wanted to publish both (even though perhaps a moot point for Destiny).
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