From a national perspective and from just considering recent history and not digging too deeply into particulars of any team, that's about where it should be I think. They noted the schedule in the top piece above. We have a harder eastern crossover schedule this year and, from a preseason perspective, would be an underdog in both of those away games. That would lower us from last year's 8 regular season wins to 7. On the other hand, we should be able to avoid a Bowling Green this season. That would put us back to 8 wins. So, 7.5 splits the difference.
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Wald: Vegas sets Gophers football 2022 win total at 6.5, is it too low?
- Thread starter BleedGopher
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From a national perspective and from just considering recent history and not digging too deeply into particulars of any team, that's about where it should be I think. They noted the schedule in the top piece above. We have a harder eastern crossover schedule this year and, from a preseason perspective, would be an underdog in both of those away games. That would lower us from last year's 8 regular season wins to 7. On the other hand, we should be able to avoid a Bowling Green this season. That would put us back to 8 wins. So, 7.5 splits the difference.
10 win big ten teams aren’t #22The Athletic disagrees....they rank the Gophers as the number 22 team in the country.
As such, I'd say they expect us to win 9 or 10 games minimum. Most Top 25 teams do.
They’re like 6-12
Top 25 2021-22 https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll10 win big ten teams aren’t #22
They’re like 6-12
Iowa was #23 with 10 wins. Vegas doesn't care much about conferences when setting the numbers...I'd say schedule is more important.
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10-3 Iowa was 17th (15th playoff poll)Top 25 2021-22 https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll
Iowa was #23 with 10 wins. Vegas doesn't care much about conferences when setting the numbers...I'd say schedule is more important.
10-2 Iowa was 12th in coaches (13th in playoff poll)
The end of the regular season was what I was talking about.
A 10-2 big ten team is typically going to be in the 6-12 range though could be lower with a bad SOS
A 10 win big ten team after 13 or 14 games is a different metric than a 10 win team after 12 games.
I assumed you were talking about regular season wins. If I had known you were talking about including post season wins I wouldn’t have said what I said
upnorthkid
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yup all depends on the vig. i'd still feel pretty good about over 7.5 but would be interested to see if the money pours in on perceived line alteration and drives the money for over 7.5 up or if people still are full steam ahead on the over (which I'd imagine they would be with our OOC schedule and production coming back at the skill positions on paper)I've seen the O/U at 6.5, but only with stupid vig on the over -- like -170. Other places have at 7.5 with the over around -120. I'd probably lean towards the latter as I feel comfortable with 8 wins, but you can now see how they're trapping this bet.
The other things that help are:yup all depends on the vig. i'd still feel pretty good about over 7.5 but would be interested to see if the money pours in on perceived line alteration and drives the money for over 7.5 up or if people still are full steam ahead on the over (which I'd imagine they would be with our OOC schedule and production coming back at the skill positions on paper)
Had a trap game loss to bowling green last year….not related but the mind makes you think a loss in the first two is less likely because of it.
Colorado just hired a guy we fired because he didn’t get the job done. Unlikely to overlook them.
Lost to Illinois last year. Unlikely to overlook them:
Crossover games avoid Ohio state and Michigan.
Get Purdue and Iowa at home (2 of the top 3 in the division who aren’t the gophers IMO).