Wald: Vegas sets Gophers football 2022 win total at 6.5, is it too low?

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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per Wald:

According to Vegas Insider, the over/under for Minnesota’s win total next season is 6.5.

On the surface, that seems low. But Vegas has a method to its madness when it comes to gambling. Here are factors that could lead one who wagers in either direction.

WHY THE GOPHERS WILL WIN 7 OR MORE GAMES

  • The Encore 4 – Four of the Gophers’ top offensive players are back for one more season, gaining an extra year of eligibility due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Tanner Morgan, Mo Ibrahim, John Michael Schmitz and Chris Autman-Bell are all back for Minnesota. Morgan set all kinds of passing records in 2019. His offensive coordinator that year, Kirk Ciarrocca, is back. Ibrahim as the Big Ten Running Back of the Year in 2020, and is back after leg injury against Ohio State ended his season after just one game. Autman-Bell led the Gophers in receiving last year, despite missing three of the first four games with an injury.
  • Best secondary under Fleck? Minnesota might feature its best secondary in 2022, in Fleck’s sixth season. The group will be led by safeties Jordan Howden, and Tyler Nubin. They’ve added transfers Beanie Bishop and Ryan Stapp and defensive back, and return Justin Walley and Terrell Smith.
  • The schedule: Right out of the gate, the Gophers get three straight home games against New Mexico State, Western Illinois and Colorado. Those should be three wins. We’ll know a lot more about Minnesota after it heads to Michigan State to open the Big Ten slate. The league home games are also against Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern and Iowa. Defend your home field alone, and you’re at seven wins. That said, the Gophers had inexplicable home losses last year to Bowling Green and Illinois.
WHY THE GOPHERS WILL WIN 6 OR FEWER GAMES

  • Revamped offensive line: The Gophers lost four starters from an offensive line that played together for most of the last three seasons. Only Schmitz is back at center, and the returning players got snaps during the 2020 season. They’ll need transfers Quinn Carroll and Chuck Filiaga to step up.
  • Questions on the defensive line: Thomas Rush and Trill Carter are the proven veterans back on the defensive line. After that, it’s a lot of names that haven’t seen a ton of game action. They’ll need players like Gage Keys, Jah Joyner, Austin Booker and transfers Lorenza Surgers and Darnell Jefferies to step up.
  • The schedule: As evidenced by Bowling Green and Illinois last year, no game on the schedule is a guarantee. Not even New Mexico State, with former Gophers’ coach Jerry Kill coming back to town. Minnesota’s Big Ten road slate includes Michigan State, Illinois, Penn State, Nebraska and Wisconsin. The Spartans and Nittany Lions will be tough, Scott Frost is on the hot seat and a rivalry game that could have Big Ten West implications at Camp Randall will be a huge challenge.
www.fox9.com

Vegas sets Gophers football 2022 win total at 6.5, is it too low?

Las Vegas oddsmakers don't believe 2022 will be a big year for the Gophers football team, setting their over/under win total at 6.5.
www.fox9.com www.fox9.com

Go Gophers!!
 

Gophers are still in "prove it" mode and will be for a while until they get the preseason benefit of the doubt from anyone else.

With Vegas odds I always ask:

1) Can you even put money on it?

2) Is the person taking the bet going to be punished (lose money) for being wrong.

If either are "no" then it's just off-season talk / doesn't mean anything.
 

I would personally say 6.5 is easy money.

New Mexico State = win
Western Illinois = win
Colorado = 80/20 win to me
@ Michigan state = 60/40 win (I think they were flash in the pan a bit last year…will be solid but not top 15 in the nation)
Purdue = 55-45 win (Minnesota is my favorite in the west and Purdue is my dark horse…I think 1-2 games will separate top 4…if it was road I’d go 55-45 Purdue)
@ Illinois 80/20 win…they’ll take a step back and they won’t catch us napping two years in a row. If it was at home this would be a lock win for me.
@ Penn state 60-40 loss. I think they’re solid but not top 15. Road game. Kind of like Michigan state in a tougher environment.
Rutgers = win
@ Nebraska = 80/20 win if I’m right about Nebraska…they’ll be playing for an interim coach for this game is my estimation
Northwestern = win…so bad on offense
Iowa = 50/50….they aren’t as good as last year but I can’t make us the favorite when we haven’t beat them in so long (I have Iowa 4th in the division after picking them to win the division last year)
@ wisconsin = 51-49 win this game is for the division assuming wisconsin and Minnesota both beat Purdue (I have Minnesota winning the game and the division)

6.5 easy over
7.5 over
8.5 over but I wouldn’t bet it
9.5 not confident
10.5 under

**assuming the bet is even split for a win-loss
 


Some guy said:
I would personally say 6.5 is easy money.

New Mexico State = win
Western Illinois = win
Colorado = 80/20 win to me
@ Michigan state = 60/40 win (I think they were flash in the pan a bit last year…will be solid but not top 15 in the nation)
Purdue = 55-45 win (Minnesota is my favorite in the west and Purdue is my dark horse…I think 1-2 games will separate top 4…if it was road I’d go 55-45 Purdue)
@ Illinois 80/20 win…they’ll take a step back and they won’t catch us napping two years in a row. If it was at home this would be a lock win for me.
@ Penn state 60-40 loss. I think they’re solid but not top 15. Road game. Kind of like Michigan state in a tougher environment.
Rutgers = win
@ Nebraska = 80/20 win if I’m right about Nebraska…they’ll be playing for an interim coach for this game is my estimation
Northwestern = win…so bad on offense
Iowa = 50/50….they aren’t as good as last year but I can’t make us the favorite when we haven’t beat them in so long (I have Iowa 4th in the division after picking them to win the division last year)
@ wisconsin = 51-49 win this game is for the division assuming wisconsin and Minnesota both beat Purdue (I have Minnesota winning the game and the division)

6.5 easy over
7.5 over
8.5 over but I wouldn’t bet it
9.5 not confident
10.5 under

**assuming the bet is even split for a win-loss
Click to expand...
Colorado should be significantly easier than Illinois or Nebraska in my opinion.
 



Some guy said:
I would personally say 6.5 is easy money.

New Mexico State = win
Western Illinois = win
Colorado = 80/20 win to me
@ Michigan state = 60/40 win (I think they were flash in the pan a bit last year…will be solid but not top 15 in the nation)
Purdue = 55-45 win (Minnesota is my favorite in the west and Purdue is my dark horse…I think 1-2 games will separate top 4…if it was road I’d go 55-45 Purdue)
@ Illinois 80/20 win…they’ll take a step back and they won’t catch us napping two years in a row. If it was at home this would be a lock win for me.
@ Penn state 60-40 loss. I think they’re solid but not top 15. Road game. Kind of like Michigan state in a tougher environment.
Rutgers = win
@ Nebraska = 80/20 win if I’m right about Nebraska…they’ll be playing for an interim coach for this game is my estimation
Northwestern = win…so bad on offense
Iowa = 50/50….they aren’t as good as last year but I can’t make us the favorite when we haven’t beat them in so long (I have Iowa 4th in the division after picking them to win the division last year)
@ wisconsin = 51-49 win this game is for the division assuming wisconsin and Minnesota both beat Purdue (I have Minnesota winning the game and the division)

6.5 easy over
7.5 over
8.5 over but I wouldn’t bet it
9.5 not confident
10.5 under

**assuming the bet is even split for a win-loss
Click to expand...
I think we do go over, but I see Illinois as more like 60/40, Nebraska 50/50, and Wisconsin 40/60. Michigan state I see closer to 40/60 than 60/40. I actually give us slightly more than 50/50 vs Iowa.
 





BleedGopher said:
This.

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...
The last 4 years of Gopher football under Fleck have taught me to not expect them to blowout bad teams. If anything, the opposite.

Regardless, that win total is too low for a team with a 6th year QB. I think there is going to be some ugly line play next year, but I certainly don't expect the Gophers to be scraping for bowl eligibility down the stretch.

I get the argument though. Look at what happened to the Gophers in 2020 after losing two players along the line. Wasn't pretty. Now they lose four.
 

Gophers1992 said:
I think we do go over, but I see Illinois as more like 60/40, Nebraska 50/50, and Wisconsin 40/60. Michigan state I see closer to 40/60 than 60/40. I actually give us slightly more than 50/50 vs Iowa.
Click to expand...
Gophers outplayed Iowa in 2019 and 2021. They're going to win that game eventually and Iowa is replacing its QB.
 






kisarazu said:
I think this year's offense will surprise. Also, unsurprisingly, Colorado will have no passing game
Click to expand...
I think Colorado’s passing game will be much more wide open than what we saw last year but about equally as effective.


Meaning I foresee us forcing 3-4 turnovers
 

Vegas wants people to bet.

they set their point spreads and propositions at a level that they believe will produce the most action.

this is not Vegas saying "The Gophers will win 6 or 7 games."

This is Vegas saying "setting the over/under at 6.5 will generate the most action."

only this, and nothing more. (literary reference)
 




We will win more than 6.5 games easy. We have a "very" veteran QB, and a running game, where we can just run the ball and keep the other team off the field. MO may even be a Heisman trophy finalist, if he stays healthy.
 


This is a case where I wish sports betting were legal in MN. I'd hit the over.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Vegas wants people to bet.

they set their point spreads and propositions at a level that they believe will produce the most action.

this is not Vegas saying "The Gophers will win 6 or 7 games."

This is Vegas saying "setting the over/under at 6.5 will generate the most action."

only this, and nothing more. (literary reference)
Click to expand...
That's not correct.
Vegas sets futures bets--like over/unders--at the level they feel will produce bets but not expose them to a beat down. If the pro futures predictors put the over/under at 6.5, you can be assured they feel 6 or 7 are the most reasonable numbers. If all they wanted to do was generate the most action, they'd put the number at 0. They'd get a ton of action...a ton more than they want, because they'd lose a ton.

Point spreads (for example Gophers +17 vs New Mexico State) work differently. They want equal amounts bet on both sides, whereby they have zero exposure and simply keep 5% of the total bet (the 10% vig from the losing side.)
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Vegas wants people to bet.

they set their point spreads and propositions at a level that they believe will produce the most action.

this is not Vegas saying "The Gophers will win 6 or 7 games."

This is Vegas saying "setting the over/under at 6.5 will generate the most action."

only this, and nothing more. (literary reference)
Click to expand...
I got that but why is the over not getting hit like a piñata? Again, I don't make bets but if I did I would bet my bail money on it.
 



I've seen the O/U at 6.5, but only with stupid vig on the over -- like -170. Other places have at 7.5 with the over around -120. I'd probably lean towards the latter as I feel comfortable with 8 wins, but you can now see how they're trapping this bet.
 




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