Vingegaard or Pogacar?

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Full Speed Ahead said:
Per my daughter - there's a good chance of rain in tomorrow's stage so, with the large time gap, she thinks the attacks will come much earlier - namely in the climb before the one you circled and then that downhill section before your circle. UAE will put it all on the line, hoping Jumbo won't want to take the risk that they will be taking. If UAE can put Pogacar in front coming over the second to last peak, and have support riders behind him, those support riders can effectively block Jumbo from catching up during the downhill (again, wet roads limits passing during a high-speed downhill). It then becomes a mano-mano race up the last hill for Pogacar to maintain whatever gap he's created. My view is that the yellow is already decided. If it was 30 seconds, maybe, but the gap is just too large. But I like my daughter's hope that it's still a race.
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Listening to one of the Tour podcasts, the rumblings were that the Jumbo team actually targeted tomorrow's stage as the one where they were going to put the screws to Tadej and seal the deal with the Tour. I wonder if the current gap changes that strategy at all?

Been way too many times in the last several mountain stages, towards the end, where Jonas has been in front of Tadej. I just don't get it. Let Tadej pull, and you can see when he starts to attack immediately in front of you, probably even more easily than if he were behind you. No clue why Jonas stays in front and then just constantly looks back for when the attack will come. Just let him get in front of you and stay on that wheel. OH well...
 

Brutal stage tomorrow (Wednesday). Holy crap. 103.5 miles but over 5,000 meters of elevation gain, 16,044 feet!!! That's just nuts.

I haven't done it for a couple years but I used to do a ride south of Lake Tahoe called Death Ride; Tour of the California Alps. They've cut it down a LITTLE bit the last couple years but the 3 years I did it, it was 130 miles, with 15,000 feet of elevation gain (climbed over five 3,000 ft mountain passes). Looks like this year (it was just last weekend), it was "reduced" to 103 miles and a touch over 14,000 feet of climbing.

Both the Jumbo and the UAE team will be up all night revising their strategies considering how the gap has changed so dramatically. It should be some great theater, no doubt about it.
 


Full Speed Ahead said:
Per my daughter - there's a good chance of rain in tomorrow's stage so, with the large time gap, she thinks the attacks will come much earlier - namely in the climb before the one you circled and then that downhill section before your circle.
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I was thinking the same thing after this stage and looking at the stage tomorrow, but I was unaware of the potential rain. Even then, I thought the attack by UAE would come earlier than you described just to allow for further game-plan alterations depending on the response from other factions.

To me, the wild card is when there is a big group (more than 12, probably up to 20) that try to breakaway, and I think it will start somewhere on the downhill before the first Cat 1 climb, about 14k into the start. That should probably include Ciccone and Powless trying to snag polka dot points early, but it will be the response of the GC teams that will tell the tale. I think they will let them extend themselves, but If they get away, they probably don't overload and try to extend the lead going into the next climb, but reserve for the last two climbs of the day and try to stay away from the rabbits on the last climb and get a stage win. I think the Cat 2 climb is where Jumbo and UAE start to try to pressure the breakaway.

I agree that this could be over as of today, but a lot of things can happen with rain, mechanicals, etc. And I really don't know who to cheer for, in a good way. Through all the interviews with Jonas, and Tadej (sorry for the first name use, the last names are just too much) they both seem like grounded, good people. That's also why I'm really cheering for Powless, because he seems to be just beaming and thrilled to be in the mix for a jersey. I don't cheer for flags, I cheer for people. And I'm kind of happy that Cavendish crashed out and did not get the chance to take the overall stage wins from "The Cannibal" Eddie Merckx.
 



Well, nobody would have expected that to happen. Everything is settled except for who will win the remaining stages and the KOM jersey.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
Brutal stage tomorrow (Wednesday). Holy crap. 103.5 miles but over 5,000 meters of elevation gain, 16,044 feet!!! That's just nuts.

I haven't done it for a couple years but I used to do a ride south of Lake Tahoe called Death Ride; Tour of the California Alps. They've cut it down a LITTLE bit the last couple years but the 3 years I did it, it was 130 miles, with 15,000 feet of elevation gain (climbed over five 3,000 ft mountain passes). Looks like this year (it was just last weekend), it was "reduced" to 103 miles and a touch over 14,000 feet of climbing.

Both the Jumbo and the UAE team will be up all night revising their strategies considering how the gap has changed so dramatically. It should be some great theater, no doubt about it.
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My hardest ride was in 2004. TCBC had a ride in Western Wisconsin that was 120 miles with 10,000 ft of climbing.

I was so beat, that I can't imagine doing another 5,000 of climbing.
 

Ski U Mah Gopher said:
My hardest ride was in 2004. TCBC had a ride in Western Wisconsin that was 120 miles with 10,000 ft of climbing.

I was so beat, that I can't imagine doing another 5,000 of climbing.
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I've done basically zero racing, but in the past did quite a bit of bike touring, such as riding around Lake Superior. And I used to ride to work every day, but these days I'm working from home, so that ride has gone away. Mostly now I'm just riding trails up north, and there are a lot of nice ones between Duluth and Grand Marais.
 




fan of Ray Williams said:
Sepp Kuss doing a fantastic job in support of Jonas.

velo.outsideonline.com

Sepp Kuss interview: 'I’d love an opportunity to race grand tour GC'

American flying high in GC feels example needs to be made of crash-causing spectators and reflects on the special qualities he brings to Vingegaard and Jumbo-Visma.
velo.outsideonline.com velo.outsideonline.com
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I do hope he gets the chance to ride for a GC, but it's a bit of a long shot. He's 28 now, and his contract with Jumbo runs through the 2024 season, so he'd be 30 by the time he could join a new team, which is starting to get up there in age. I do think if he was lead on a team he could win a lot of stages and very likely the KOM jersey.
 

Before opening this thread I tried to guess what the actual subject was (no joke), and my best hunch was Formula 1.

I'm not knocking it, just have zero familiarity with the Tour since Armstrong.
 

Tomorrow, Stage 18
 

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Ski U Mah Gopher said:
My hardest ride was in 2004. TCBC had a ride in Western Wisconsin that was 120 miles with 10,000 ft of climbing.

I was so beat, that I can't imagine doing another 5,000 of climbing.
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I finally stopped doing it. I'm not very bright sometimes, it took me doing it 3 times to realize it wasn't that much fun. Not even so much the brutal climbing but just not fun; the ride is largely either 7-10 mph uphill, or 40-50 mph downhill. There's just not a lot of fun in that. The descents, you're hands are just HURTING from working and holding the brakes.

Give me a good century or more with some nice scenery and good terrain, get some good riding in. Ironically enough, it's called Death Ride (if I'm not mistaken) not because of the brutal climbing but because of the descents; someone gets airlifted away almost every year, missing a turn at high speed on the descents, it's dangerous shit.

It was tough watching Pogacar hit the wall. As soon as I saw that gap in front of him just 3 meters or so, I knew he was fucked. Either a bad day or too many matches burned in the TT the day before.
 




Stage 20 tomorrow. Kasper Asgreen winning yesterday’s stage and getting 2nd today.
 

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Dang it. Had to head out and missed the finish with the sprint of Pogacar and Vingegaard.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
Not sure what to think about the Tour being almost entirely streamed on Peacock; I paid my $5-$10 to get Peacock just to watch the Tour. The jury is still out on whether or not I actually like Peacock enough to keep it.

I suspect NBC will be putting more and more events on there so I imagine I'll be keeping it for a little bit anyway?
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Just went to cancel Peacock and an offer popped up for 1.99 per month for 6 months. Accepted it.
 

fan of Ray Williams said:
Just went to cancel Peacock and an offer popped up for 1.99 per month for 6 months. Accepted it.
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OH! I may have to take a look at that.

I think I have another 6-7 days on my trial or whatever it is. I'll wait as long as possible, never know what I'll need Peacock for this fall/winter.
 

Just watched the replay of the end of stage 20.
Pogacar was extremely happy about his victory. Good to see.
 

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