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Ogee Ogilthorpe

Ogee Ogilthorpe

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Last year, the Rebels basically rolled the dice and sold out against the Gopher running game, completely aware of Gray's passing abilities. It almost worked for them.

I'd be surprised if they did much different this time around. Nelson hasn't shown just yet that he's a major threat throwing the ball, although I certainly think he's more proficient winging it than last year's opening day starter. Contrary to popular belief, I'd like to see the Gophers come out with a healthy dose of play action and down field passing. It will be there for the taking.

It would be nice to see the Gophers line up and ram it down UNLV's throat but I'm not sure that happens, at least until the Gophers loosen up the Rebel defense with some success throwing the ball. UNLV will gear up for the run, in a big way, and again roll the dice that MN can't beat them through the air.

I think the one and only story line in this one is, can Nelson and the Rodents make them pay?
 

I am with you on this Ogee. I bet their defense will stack and bite hard on play actions. Might we see TEs with some nice catches over the middle?
 

If it rains as it's supposed to that's a big advantage to the Gophers as UNLV relies heavily on their passing game.
 

I'm willing to bet that the coaching staff, has a list of check down passing plays, if UNLV starts to sell out against the run. I think that Nelson will be checking down and passing a lot in the first couple of series. If we get the ball outside our 35 yard line I wouldn't be surprised at a play action pass deep for the first play.
 

nsmike said:
I'm willing to bet that the coaching staff, has a list of check down passing plays, if UNLV starts to sell out against the run. I think that Nelson will be checking down and passing a lot in the first couple of series. If we get the ball outside our 35 yard line I wouldn't be surprised at a play action pass deep for the first play.
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A lot depends on the weather. If it's raining, you don't want to pass the ball. When the ball is slick bad things happen. Balls slip out of QB hands as they're trying to pass. Balls slip out of WR hands as they're trying to catch. QB can't get the same velocity on the ball causing the ball to float. WR's can't see the ball as well causing drops, tips, etc.
 


Costa Rican Gopher said:
A lot depends on the weather. If it's raining, you don't want to pass the ball. When the ball is slick bad things happen. Balls slip out of QB hands as they're trying to pass. Balls slip out of WR hands as they're trying to catch. QB can't get the same velocity on the ball causing the ball to float. WR's can't see the ball as well causing drops, tips, etc.
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And the defensive back can slip and fall on his ass making for an easy long TD.
 

The slight chance of a thunderstorm goes down to near zero after 4pm so I don't think it's an issue.
 


I've always believed that rain helps a passing team, as long as you can keep the balls dry in between plays.

WR's know where they're going; DB's have to react & have a good chance of slipping.
Pass blocking slows down; DE's can't get any traction.
 






nsmike said:
The NWS doesn't think that that that system will come far enough south. Flip a coin as to which one is right!
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Just got home from doing a few errands and the radio made it sound like NWS should be right. Therefor I am voting for them.
 



Dr.Don, the God of the Heavens from Moorhead, hereby declares nice weather for the game.
 

FireDaveLee said:
I've always believed that rain helps a passing team, as long as you can keep the balls dry in between plays.

WR's know where they're going; DB's have to react & have a good chance of slipping.
Pass blocking slows down; DE's can't get any traction.
Click to expand...

I remember once reading a study somewhere that statistically validated what you're saying. Rain has a greater positive impact on passing, not running.
 

wind and our DB's are the only factors that effectively slow down passing teams...
 



Yikes.

The line just moved from 14 to 13.5, which is a good jump from a key number like 14. That might just prompt a wager at the book on the way home!! Apparently a fair amount of local money going on the Rebels late. I wonder if it makes it to 13 by kickoff?
 

Been a while since I actually played so not sure how workable this is but I would line up to run it and audible into play action or designed qb run if it looks like they are selling out.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Yikes.

The line just moved from 14 to 13.5, which is a good jump from a key number like 14. That might just prompt a wager at the book on the way home!! Apparently a fair amount of local money going on the Rebels late. I wonder if it makes it to 13 by kickoff?
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Today's games are off the board on scoresandodds.com, but espn.com/NCAAF/odds still has Gophers at -14.

Take the Gophers @ -13.5
 

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