Possibly, possibly not. Simple supply and demand. Sure the supply would go down, but what if demand for college drops more?
University of Minnesota Board of Regents member not anticipating on-campus classes in fall
- Thread starter FredCoxRocks
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Possibly, possibly not. Simple supply and demand. Sure the supply would go down, but what if demand for college drops more?
Veritas
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Your thesis that keeping everyone locked down will spare people Covid 19 is now demonstrated to be false. Look at both various states and various countries and you will clearly see that those who have done the most damage to their economies have done no better with their deaths. I get nothing from either the state of Minnesota or the Feds. I worked in another country for forty years. The solution to the COVID 19 problem is to stop paying people to stay home and let them decide themselves what they want to do.
For sure. Demand for education will certainly drop as the world population grows.
Even though the exact opposite has been true in the entire history of humanity
I guess, if you think that population growth is the only factor in demand for education. Or if you think that for profit education has been around since the history of humanity.
Pompous Elitist
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Paid a plumber $500 for an hour of work and ~$50 in materials that couldn’t wait the other day. Maybe a reformed lawyer ??
Flecknation
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Time and a half really add up for emergency service calls! clogged drain?
If you think the demand for education in our society is going to drop you’re on something. It might change a bit, but it’s not going to drop
For sure that plumber didn’t go to a school to get trained.
Tech schools going broke and shuttering will for sure not impact plumbers, welders, and electricians being trained.
Pompous Elitist
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Obviously tradesmen need a training program and apprenticeship prior to being licensed. TMK trade school costs are a small fraction of cost of attendance for most 4 year colleges. Perhaps that will change with industry consolidation and reduced state funding - I’m not really an expert on vocational schools.
Simply pointing out for some select individuals without a clear purpose pushing for a $$$ 4 year degree, particularly if said degree in practical terms only qualifies one to repost Daily Kos rants, is maybe not the best investment vs a learned skill/trade.
It’s not just 4 year liberal arts colleges that will be in dire financial situations if there is no school in person in the fall.
In states without strong support for post secondary education community colleges and tech/training schools will be in dire budget situations.
The original post I was responded was an anti-Fed conspiracy theorist.
it is fine to hate the Fed. But he should acknowledge the economic ramifications of not supporting good monetary policy.
Pompous Elitist
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Well now we’re getting into the weeds.
If the current mindset of leadership is a zero risk tolerance - that implies no school until Fall of 2021 at the earliest. Obviously that is absurd considering the overall low relative risk involved for the vast majority. Once we accept that is an unacceptable path then minimizing risk (not eliminating) becomes the mindset and life can go on with some scheduling and spacing considerations.
If the current mindset of leadership is a zero risk tolerance - that implies no school until Fall of 2021 at the earliest. Obviously that is absurd considering the overall low relative risk involved for the vast majority. Once we accept that is an unacceptable path then minimizing risk (not eliminating) becomes the mindset and life can go on with some scheduling and spacing considerations.
short ornery norwegian
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Brett McMurphy has a long article posted on watchstadium.com.
He talked to commissioners from 7 of the 10 FBS conferences. (Kevin Warren from the B1G declined to be interviewed).
The gist was that opinions seem to be turning on some of these issues. Several commissioners said they would be OK with playing games even if there were no students on campus. Some said it might even be safer covid-wise as opposed to having a full campus.
and - the interesting part - a few commissioners suggested that they could see their conferences going ahead and playing games even if one or two members said they were not going to play. the PAC-12 guy said it would have to be all or nothing, but other commissioners, including some Group of 5 leagues, said they could have a season as long as most of the teams were willing to play.
that could be very interesting or very messy. How do you draw up a schedule on that basis? Play some teams twice like HS's will when they have an odd number of teams in the conference?
2020 is going to be one wacky year.
He talked to commissioners from 7 of the 10 FBS conferences. (Kevin Warren from the B1G declined to be interviewed).
The gist was that opinions seem to be turning on some of these issues. Several commissioners said they would be OK with playing games even if there were no students on campus. Some said it might even be safer covid-wise as opposed to having a full campus.
and - the interesting part - a few commissioners suggested that they could see their conferences going ahead and playing games even if one or two members said they were not going to play. the PAC-12 guy said it would have to be all or nothing, but other commissioners, including some Group of 5 leagues, said they could have a season as long as most of the teams were willing to play.
that could be very interesting or very messy. How do you draw up a schedule on that basis? Play some teams twice like HS's will when they have an odd number of teams in the conference?
2020 is going to be one wacky year.
Pompous Elitist
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Where there is a will there is a way. Sometimes trying to get to perfect is the enemy of the good. Sure, team outbreaks may throw a wrench in records for some teams, as there may be forfeits and diff rescheduling conference games .We are used to the postseason being an ungodly unfair mess in CFB anyway. Why change now.
The bigger question in my mind is whether some players will refuse to play, and the optics around it all. It’s sure to be controversial (playing).
If there is a zero risk mindset it means there is no school ever
GoGophersUMN
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If 1 school doesn't play, they can play a round robin with a normal schedule length. If a few more don't play they could still do a round robin and play fewer games. Assuming the playoff and selection process are somewhat similar to normal, I think they'd be okay with conferences playing fewer than 12 games to avoid having unbalanced schedules from having to play one or two teams twice and the rest once. If less than 10 teams would play I'm guessing they wouldn't go ahead with the season.
If 11-13 teams will play and 1-3 won't, which 1-3 of those could matter too. I'm guessing it's a very different decision if Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan won't play than it is if Rutgers, Northwestern, and Maryland won't play.
Which is why there is already risk being introduced as a few things begin to open. Given the data up to this point, it makes sense. There will not be a zero risk mindset unless all hell breaks loose and the virus starts killing anyone who gets it. But, since that isn't close to being the case, it is likely more and more risk will be introduced as the spring moves forward, more data will be collected, and more decisions will be made on the school year. Kevin Warren said on Monday the next six weeks are vital in data collection. Coyle said today that June will be an extremely important month.
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PhillyGopher
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MplsGopher
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Exactly, higher education leaders aren't going to allow the pleasure of college sports if they aren't going to be ensured that they will survive this.
They badly need to have students on campus.
They'll get their students, and they'll release the sports hostage.
They badly need to have students on campus.
They'll get their students, and they'll release the sports hostage.
Pompous Elitist
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Personally, and I realize this is just me and my tolerance for risk, would be seriously upset if were a college student looking at a lost year of school, delayed income, increased debt burden. Some foundational classes can be done online but the important stuff like networking, relationship building, hands on workshops and labs, internships are being delayed or possibly ignored and deleted altogether which cannot be ok. Those are serious issues for a population with fairly low risk from SARS-COV2. Obviously some people have a lower risk threshold than others as with anything else. Are we delaying the inevitable?
Has Rutgers ever decided to start playing?
Bad Gopher
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I talked to my senior daughter about this Friday, and she's open to the idea--especially if her sport is in jeopardy and they'd grant her another year of eligibility.
MplsGopher
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Open to the possibility of simply not enrolling for this coming school year, you mean?
Seems like a smart choice to me.
But if enough students do this, schools might get desperate. They might threaten students that they'll lose credits/lose their active student status if they don't enroll. They need tuition money to survive.
It could get really, really ugly.
Bad Gopher
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Yes, taking a semester or year off. One of the factors is that there's an internship requirement for graduation, and Boston Scientific has deferred the internship she was a candidate for. An extra semester or year would give her the chance for that one or a substitute internship. If schools start putting screws to students as you describe, they're putting many of them in a double bind.
The good news: was watching Face the Nation this morning, and most of these big schools and systems have huge endowments. The UVA president was on, and they have $10 billion endowment fund. If there was ever a time to dip into it, now would be that time.
MplsGopher
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Big public schools and privates with reasonable endowments should be able to survive a one year blip in enrollment. But a lot of other schools may not be able. It's all risk, you never know what one bad year might do in a domino effect.
Good point about internship requirements!
I just really think, sans a turn for the very worst, that we're going to see students physically on campus, even if at a limited or less than full capacity, this fall.
Economics is going to win out. If we let the virus rip through unabated, it would "only" kill 500-600k, I think. That's terrible, of course, but people are going to decide that it isn't worth fundamentally altering our way of life.
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Most of the living population of the USA and other developed nations have never lived through a crisis where their personal safety was threatened in the way it is on a daily basis in most of the world.
We're going to be crazy risk averse in this. Zero risk. The real economy will get wrecked, campus won't open, and the historians will call this the mega panic that killed culture, replacing it with fear and a drastically accelerated corporate monoculture.