Tweaked (and final) Preseason Field of 68 Projection

[SelectionSunday]

Decided to tweak preseason Field of 68 projection one more time, as a few things have happened since Oct. 16, most notably some key transfer waivers that were approved. Next projection will be December 1.

FIELD OF 68 (11/3/19)
An * denotes locked into the field (most prolific NCAA qualifying program in conference since 2000)

America East (1): *Vermont

American (4): *Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Wichita State

ACC (6): *Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia

Atlantic Sun (1): *Florida Gulf Coast

Atlantic 10 (2): Davidson, *VCU

Big East (5): Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, *Xavier

Big Sky (1): *Montana

Big South (1): *Winthrop

B1G (7): Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, *Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big XII (6): Baylor, *Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Big West (1): *Hawaii

Colonial (1): *NC-Wilmington

Conference USA (1): *Western Kentucky

Horizon (1): *Milwaukee

Ivy (1): *Penn

MAAC (1): *Iona

MAC (2): Bowling Green, *Kent State

MEAC (1): *NCCU

Missouri Valley (1): *Northern Iowa

Mountain West (2): *San Diego State, Utah State

Northeast (1): *LIU

Ohio Valley (1): *Belmont

Pac 12 (4): *Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, Washington

Patriot (1): *Bucknell

SEC (7): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, *Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Southern (1): *Wofford

Southland (1): *Stephen F. Austin

SWAC (1): *Texas Southern

Summit (1): *South Dakota State

Sun Belt (1): *Georgia State

West Coast (2): *Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

WAC (1): *New Mexico State
__________________________

Last 4 In: Bowling Green (last team in), Tennessee, Wichita State, Wisconsin

First 4 Out: Creighton (first team out), Iowa, LSU, Missouri State

8 to Watch: College of Charleston, Dayton, Liberty, Marquette, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Penn State, South Alabama

Non-Major 7 At-Larges (4): Bowling Green, Davidson, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
________________________________

Final 4: Kansas, Maryland, Michigan State, Seton Hall

National Champion: Michigan State
___________________________

NIT Champion: Oklahoma

 

[alchemy2u]

Ouch, no Gophers....


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[upnorthkid]

Seton Hall eh? Interesting

 

[whogoofed]

No Minnesota and Wisconsin in? Highly suspicious. Cannnot take seriously.

 

[gopherguy15]

Interesting. What have you heard about Bowling Green?

 

[SelectionSunday]

Interesting. What have you heard about Bowling Green?

Favorite to win the MAC. Have about 4 games on their non-conference schedule that could help them build an at-large resume. ... @ LSU, vs. Western Kentucky (Paradise Jam), potentially Cincinnati and/or Nevada/Grand Canyon also at Paradise Jam. That's provided BG has a pretty dominant year in the MAC like Buffalo had last season, far from a shoo-in.

MAC hasn't had an at-large bid in a long time, but it's on a bit of an upswing. In this preseason projection I account for at least a a couple upsets in conference tournaments (bid-stealers), so that's why I have teams like Bowling Green and Utah State as at-larges instead of auto qualifiers.

 

[Holy Man]

I hope you're wrong on the Gophers. Not even on the watch list is discouraging.

 

[golfing18now]

How many of your pre-season field of 68 hit last year? Do you track?

 

[OSUfan]

Colgate instead of Bucknell, Bradley instead of Northern Iowa, and Harvard instead of Penn.

 

[SelectionSunday]

How many of your pre-season field of 68 hit last year? Do you track?

Don’t track it like my end of season one , but it’s usually somewhere between 38-42.

 

[Mulligan]

Don’t track it like my end of season one , but it’s usually somewhere between 38-42.

So there's a chance

 

[SelectionSunday]

So there's a chance

I correctly picked the Gophers to finish 7th in the Big Ten last season, but I was incorrect about them making the NCAA Tournament. ... in the preseason I had them out. So there's more than a chance!

 

[alchemy2u]

Don’t track it like my end of season one , but it’s usually somewhere between 38-42.

So, you typically miss about 38-44% of the teams that make the tournament. OK...


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[SelectionSunday]

So, you typically miss about 38-44% of the teams that make the tournament. OK...


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For the preseason Field of 68 projection, yes. Unlike a final pre-Selection Sunday posted projection, the preseason projection you don't get 32 gimmes (conference automatic qualifiers).

I'll give myself a reminder to post how many of the 68 (preseason) I got right shortly after the bracket is released.

 

[upnorthkid]

For the preseason Field of 68 projection, yes.

How are percentages for at larges? Would imagine small one bid conferences are tough

 

[SelectionSunday]

How are percentages for at larges? Would imagine small one bid conferences are tough

Are you asking preseason or pre-tournament final projection? I only track my pre-tournament at-large selections.

 

[alchemy2u]

For the preseason Field of 68 projection, yes. Unlike a final pre-Selection Sunday posted projection, the preseason projection you don't get 32 gimmes (conference automatic qualifiers).

I'll give myself a reminder to post how many of the 68 (preseason) I got right shortly after the bracket is released.

Yea, I know that most of the misses are the small schools or fringe teams. It is hard to get them all right, but if you miss big time on a team like the Gophers we will hold it against you...lol. So this year if they become a 4-6 seed and you don’t even have them as a possible last team out.


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