I come at it more from the angle that the "U" (IMHO) is horrible at negotiation and does not use the leverage it has to come up with a contract that can be viewed in a favorable light from its side. Tubby is coming off two very bad conferences seasons, has a losing Big Ten record, and has not won an NCAA tournament game in 5 seasons. Combine the on court performance with his age and prior contract, and who is going to exceed that deal? I don't believe the "U" had much reason to worry that another school would have come calling on Tubby after the 2012 season.
If Tubby doesn’t want to sign your offer, whatever you think is attainable, then what? Which side, Tubby or us, do you think has more to lose if he doesn’t sign an extension and wait till the end of the next season?
As long as we make the Dance next season, Tubby can get a deal elsewhere that is far sweeter than your offer and move on. Barring any meaningful roster depletion, we will very likely make the Dance next season.
The implication of Tubby not signing an extension now is that he is a damaged good in the recruiting trail “at least” for the 2014 class for which he has no contract. The less than optimal recruiting, however, shouldn’t be much of concern to Tubby because it is very likely that he will be long gone. But, the poor recruiting will matter to us. In other words, we have more to lose than Tubby without any extension. Tubby has more leverage than the U, far more than you think he does. I agree, though you do not, with the U that giving him the extension accounting for all contingencies is less expensive financially and in terms of long term health of the program.
BTW, despite all the happenings here, LSU was still interested in Tubby. For his market value, Tubby still can be a good business at least in the short run for many programs in a slump, which is why LSU made the approach.
My guess is that the LSU offer would be better than ours financially because our compensation seems like the minimum. Tubby did not take it because I am sure it was still good enough for him, and he believed that he would have far better options after the next season. In other words, he weighed flexibility (or the power to renegotiate) more heavily for his decision to sign the extension. I think that was a reasonable trade-off.
P.S. For stock valuation, the future income/profit stream for a stock is a major part of the valuation of a stock. The past performance is not a sole criterion. Unlike stock valuation, the past performance is still important in our case, but the future prospect is similarly valid.