Transfer Portal provides few opportunities for high school seniors

[MNSpaniel]

Here's a good article on the transfer portal and how it has caused fewer opportunities for high school kids. Last year 400 fewer high school scholarships were offered to high school kids and they think the number will grow.

Opportunities for high school recruits on the decline in NCAA transfer portal era

In 2021 alone, FBS teams signed 2,215 high school seniors – about 400 fewer than in 2020 and 2019.

www.mlive.com

 

[btowngopher]

Here's a good article on the transfer portal and how it has caused fewer opportunities for high school kids. Last year 400 fewer high school scholarships were offered to high school kids and they think the number will grow.

Opportunities for high school recruits on the decline in NCAA transfer portal era

In 2021 alone, FBS teams signed 2,215 high school seniors – about 400 fewer than in 2020 and 2019.

www.mlive.com

Why would the number grow though unless a ton of FCS guys are transferring up?

 

[MNSpaniel]

It would grow if more college coaches decide it is easier and more reliable to take kids who have proven they can play at the college level instead of taking a risk on a project.

 

[btowngopher]

I’d like to see a G5 school go super heavy on portal players. Why recruit and develop players just to have them transfer to a P5? Let the P5s do that then let the players burn their one free transfer coming to you, instead of leaving.

 

[btowngopher]

It would grow if more college coaches decide it is easier and more reliable to take kids who have proven they can play at the college level instead of taking a risk on a project.

But the pool of players is 85 per team, as they leave they can only really be replaced by more high schoolers, jucos, or FCS players. If teams are just trading around fbs players in the portal someone will come up short and have to bring in non fbs guys.

 

[AZGopher8]

Here's a good article on the transfer portal and how it has caused fewer opportunities for high school kids. Last year 400 fewer high school scholarships were offered to high school kids and they think the number will grow.

Opportunities for high school recruits on the decline in NCAA transfer portal era

In 2021 alone, FBS teams signed 2,215 high school seniors – about 400 fewer than in 2020 and 2019.

www.mlive.com

It is a really challenging time to be a high school student athlete looking to find the right school, coaches, and program. Throw in the transfer portal and the extra year of eligibility for Covid and you can see that significantly limits the opportunities these kids have to earn a scholarship.

Most of these kids have sacrificed throughout their young lives for these opportunities and now their dreams of playing in college on scholarship have to be adjusted to the current market. I hope some level of stability for student athletes can be attained for those still pursuing their dreams.

 

[DarthGopher]

It is a really challenging time to be a high school student athlete looking to find the right school, coaches, and program. Throw in the transfer portal and the extra year of eligibility for Covid and you can see that significantly limits the opportunities these kids have to earn a scholarship.

Most of these kids have sacrificed throughout their young lives for these opportunities and now their dreams of playing in college on scholarship have to be adjusted to the current market. I hope some level of stability for student athletes can be attained for those still pursuing their dreams.

Since they had less than a 2% chance of this happening pre-transfer portal, I also hope they were working as diligently on a plan B. Many of these kids are one bad injury away from being unemployed in their respective sport.

 

[Some guy]

Not sure it is the transfer portal at fault as much as the extra year of eligibility

 

[AZGopher8]

Since they had less than a 2% chance of this happening pre-transfer portal, I also hope they were working as diligently on a plan B. Many of these kids are one bad injury away from being unemployed in their respective sport.

Very true, DarthGopher. And especially in football, where injuries are going to happen, it is just a matter of when and how severe.

I wasn't clear in my original post, but was speaking in general about all sports. So, sports without the same risk of injury of football. However, your point still stands true. An injury, or any number of other events can change the direction of the life of a student athlete. That is why those of us trying to help student athletes attain collegiate scholarships, always start by stressing the importance of academics first.

 

[Holy Man]

It is a really challenging time to be a high school student athlete looking to find the right school, coaches, and program. Throw in the transfer portal and the extra year of eligibility for Covid and you can see that significantly limits the opportunities these kids have to earn a scholarship.

Most of these kids have sacrificed throughout their young lives for these opportunities and now their dreams of playing in college on scholarship have to be adjusted to the current market. I hope some level of stability for student athletes can be attained for those still pursuing their dreams.

Not sure what JUCO opportunities are now, but that may be a more traveled route with fewer immediate opportunities at D-1 level. The portal is changing the logistics of roster management, but it should not alter the raw number of opportunities available, and for many, it could help reframe the decision from a mostly sports one to more of an educational one. If the goal is a four year degree at a quality school, doing it JUCO at the beginning, like lots of kids do, may be a better route. If the goal is a college sports career and the lure of the NFL, that probably doesn't work.

 

[MNSpaniel]

But the pool of players is 85 per team, as they leave they can only really be replaced by more high schoolers, jucos, or FCS players. If teams are just trading around fbs players in the portal someone will come up short and have to bring in non fbs guys.

The number of 85 stays the same but the amount of players entering the Transfer Portal is increasing. Maybe earlier you filled in with say five guys. Now you have ten , maybe the next year 12 players and you choose to fill them with portal players where in the past you would have more scholarships and would have offered them to high school kids.

 

[MplsGopher]

There are 65 P5 teams (including Notre Dame) * 85 scholarship players per team = 5,525 P5 scholarship slots.

A large number of the P5 transfers are P5-to-P5.

So those, don't affect anything. It's just shuffling guys around.

And guys who move down to G5 or lower, actually open up additional slots. Not sure what those numbers are.


The ones that "eliminate" opportunities for high school kids hoping to get P5 scholarships, are the G5 and lower (FCS) move-ups via the transfer portal, like a Gibbens.


But I'd like to see the actual numbers on how many guys that is.

 

[MaxyJR1]

Not sure it is the transfer portal at fault as much as the extra year of eligibility

This is the key. The number should not grow once the kids with extra year are out. It will balance out over time. It's a balancing act and will benefit D2, D3, and FCS as they will likely find some trickle down talent.

 

[MNSpaniel]

I guess I don't get it ... Let's just say for instance. We have a normal graduation year. You have 28 new scholarships to offer. However, instead of offering them to high school kids ... you offered half of them portal kids. In the past it would have been almost 100 percent high school kids. I see this happening more often. You can't just figure P5 kids because it is happening at the other levels as well. Maybe some of the other arguments are correct but they don't make sense to me.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

in terms of math, as long as the number of teams remain the same, the number of scholarship players will remain the same.

If some scholarship players are making lateral moves through the portal, that does not change the fact that, as seniors graduate or other players move to the pros or leave football, those players need to be replaced with incoming HS players.

The top HS players will still get scholarships.

if this impacts any group, it will be the 'projects' and marginal recruits. they will either have to look for scholarships at smaller schools or settle for a PWO offer from a larger school.

As Maxy said, this could help a St. Thomas or the NSIC schools if the second-tier recruits are not getting as many P5 or G5 offers.

 

[nsmike]

Another consideration is that a significant number of players in the portal fail to find a landing spot. If they open up a scholarship by entering the portal and fail to land another scholarship position it's a net increase.

 

[FullBanana]

I wonder if PWO to high schoolers will become more and more common. Sign and have to pay a year or two before getting the offer at your current school or through the portal.

 

[btowngopher]

I guess I don't get it ... Let's just say for instance. We have a normal graduation year. You have 28 new scholarships to offer. However, instead of offering them to high school kids ... you offered half of them portal kids. In the past it would have been almost 100 percent high school kids. I see this happening more often. You can't just figure P5 kids because it is happening at the other levels as well. Maybe some of the other arguments are correct but they don't make sense to me.

So just break it down to smaller numbers. Say you have 3 teams with 10 players each. They all graduate 3 guys, so there are 9 new scholarships available total. Team A has 2 guys transfer, team B has 1 transfer, team C has none. Team A now has to fill 5 spots, and they do it with 5 high schoolers. Team B has to fill 4 spots and they do it with all high schoolers. Team C only had to fill 3 spots and they do it with the 2 transfers from A and the 1 from B. So you still had 9 high schoolers come in whether the transfers existed or not.

 

[JWG]

So just break it down to smaller numbers. Say you have 3 teams with 10 players each. They all graduate 3 guys, so there are 9 new scholarships available total. Team A has 2 guys transfer, team B has 1 transfer, team C has none. Team A now has to fill 5 spots, and they do it with 5 high schoolers. Team B has to fill 4 spots and they do it with all high schoolers. Team C only had to fill 3 spots and they do it with the 2 transfers from A and the 1 from B. So you still had 9 high schoolers come in whether the transfers existed or not.

Yea, it feels like the impact to high schoolers will be where they get offered vs. if they will. You still have the same # of scholarships. So, if OSU fills half with portal players instead of high schoolers, that still opened up that # of scholarships in those other places. So, maybe it impacts the number of P5 scholarships available as some G5 players portal up, but that means there are G5 scholarships available.

Though, just watching the portal if feels like far fewer play up than play down.

 

[MplsGopher]

I guess I don't get it ... Let's just say for instance. We have a normal graduation year. You have 28 new scholarships to offer. However, instead of offering them to high school kids ... you offered half of them portal kids. In the past it would have been almost 100 percent high school kids. I see this happening more often. You can't just figure P5 kids because it is happening at the other levels as well. Maybe some of the other arguments are correct but they don't make sense to me.

Those 14 portal guys have to come from somewhere.

 

[1983]

I would think the programs that build a foundation of incoming freshman and linking up with areas that those kids come, build relationships with HS coaches, is going to be a better option than running all over chasing portal players. It is a band aid tool for programs.

 

[highwayman]

Not sure it is the transfer portal at fault as much as the extra year of eligibility

I think this is exactly what this is. Let's see what happens next year.

I'm having a math problem here. If the transfers are eating up 400 scholarships, what is happening on the backend of the transfer? Doesn't that open up a scholarship? Someone, please explain.

 

[DarthGopher]

Very true, DarthGopher. And especially in football, where injuries are going to happen, it is just a matter of when and how severe.

I wasn't clear in my original post, but was speaking in general about all sports. So, sports without the same risk of injury of football. However, your point still stands true. An injury, or any number of other events can change the direction of the life of a student athlete. That is why those of us trying to help student athletes attain collegiate scholarships, always start by stressing the importance of academics first.

Yes, I understood what you were saying AZ. So many of these kids get stars in their eyes and they think the fountain of youth (or non-injury) will never run dry. Well, it does one day, and for many, much sooner than they would like.

When Hugh McCutcheon is recruiting for volleyball, it is rumored he asks potential recruits what their plans are outside of volleyball. He tells them they are one bad injury away from being unemployed playing volleyball (hence where I got the saying). So what else do they want to get out of this experience? What other interests do they have? He wants players that are well-rounded in this regard, as they tend to learn more quickly and develop into more complete players. I'd say his approach is quite successful.

I believe this is what Fleck eludes to when he talks about "athletically, intellectually & spiritually" or something to that effect. I know it rubs some people the wrong way as fluffy talk, but he is driving towards something much deeper by doing it. In the long run, the program ends up with stronger recruits who know who they are and why they are there. I don't really see a lot of meatheads in the ranks and nowhere near the disciplinary issues we've seen in years past. Character matters.

 

[DarthGopher]

Not sure it is the transfer portal at fault as much as the extra year of eligibility

Definitely created a bit of a log-jam on the output side, which means the input side is going to be backed up, too. In other words, college athletics are constipated right now, and don't have nearly as big of an appetite.

 

[MaxyJR1]

PWO offers are going to be huge. Come in and prove yourself and we will figure it out year to year.

 

[btowngopher]

I would think the programs that build a foundation of incoming freshman and linking up with areas that those kids come, build relationships with HS coaches, is going to be a better option than running all over chasing portal players. It is a band aid tool for programs.

Maybe, but will these relationships keep the kids from leaving the program? One positive with a transfer coming in is that they only get one free pass, so they have a higher cost if they choose to leave you than the kid you brought in from high school.

 

[Full Speed Ahead]

The 'cruits that get really crushed by the portal system are JC transfers. In the past, JCs could play right away and transfers couldn't, so that made bringing in a JC often worth the risk. Now pretty much any transfer can do that (the one-time rule applies)...