Although there's no question that getting either Henderson or the combo of Allen/Okuyemi would make this in-state class an unqualified success (I'd love to get ALL of them), I think we need to take a step back and really think about what's implied by saying that we HAVE to get one or the other in order or it's a failure.
Let's Compare the last four classes of MN commits to the current group we're going after:
2009
Alipate - 3-star (5.7)
Campion - 3-star (5.7)
Garin - 3-star (5.7)
Hageman - 3-star (5.7)
Olson - 3-star (5.6)
Rengel - 2-star (5.4)
2008
Maresh - 4-star (5.8)
Salamon - 3-star (5.5)
Grant - 2-star (5.4)
Nance - 2-star (5.4)
2007
Jacobs - 4-star (5.8)
Tate - 3-star (5.7)
Davis - 3-star (5.6)
Orton - 3-star (5.6)
Bunders - 3-star (5.5)
McGarry - 2-star (5.4)
Wynn - 2-star (5.3)
2006
McWhirter - 3-star (5.6)
Becker - 3-star (5.5)
Weber - 3-star (5.5)
Brinkhaus - 2-star (5.3)
Ellestad - 2-star (4.9)
For reference, Allen is a 3-star (5.6) and Okuyemi is a 3-star (5.5).
We already have two of the top three 2010 MN recruits committed, and both are Rivals 4-star (5.8) guys. To me, that's a successful in-state class already -- this year's MN class seems a bit thin once you get past Allen/Okuyemi the rest of the top 10 are 2-star guys (not that I think they're bad players, just not highly touted). Getting any of the three remaining top 5 guys would make a good in-state class even better. Getting Henderson would automatically make this the best in-state class we've had in my lifetime.
But, let's try to keep some perspective, here. Brew & Co are working hard to get talent in here, no matter where they're from. He's pushing hard to get the top in-state talent locked up, and he's had success for 2010 by getting two 4-star MN guys to commit already. If the other three decide to go elsewhere, it's doesn't mean that they think they're too big for the program or that Brew isn't locking up the borders. Henderson, like Floyd, is one of the top recruits in the country, period. The fact that MN is still in the picture speaks volumes for Brew's ability to recruit. Allen and Okuyemi would both be solid gets, but if they decide to go elsewhere I won't hold that against Brew and call this in-state class a failure.