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Lunardi had us last team in on Monday and still has us as last team in today. That doesn't make a lot of sense. OSU went from a 6 seed to a 7 seed.
 

howeda7 said:
Lunardi had us last team in on Monday and still has us as last team in today. That doesn't make a lot of sense. OSU went from a 6 seed to a 7 seed.
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Lunardi seems to do a deep dive once a week. During the week he might just move a few teams up or down a few spots based on key results.

This was common in previous years where a team accidentally moves up a spot with a loss because he moved someone else down after a bad loss. Seems about once a week he'll review the whole thing based on updated data, but he doesn't seem to do a deep dive every day.
 

Holy Man said:
So, who are you seeing sharing the bubble in the B1G now? I'm assuming you are elevating IU to off the bubble with the MSU win. For that matter, can you see down the line far enough to let us know what other power 5's we might share the bubble with in early March?

I do this every year, but as I look back, grabbing one or both of Utah/DePaul would be looking pretty good right now. Obviously, Butler would have been huge but not as realistic as those two.
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This is "old school" but if you look at RPI rankings, you can get a pretty good idea who else is on the bubble. Even with last year's use of NET, the RPI number was consistent in determining whether teams get in or not to the same degree as previous years.

On the RPI side, Minnesota, Penn State, and Iowa would all be in the same conversation. Purdue's RPI is bad right now and would not be a typical tournament team. Michigan also would not be an typical tournament team by RPI despite a decent NET.

On the NET side, we look a little stronger by pure ranking, but then Iowa looks really good as does Penn State. Bubble teams with us in NET are Purdue and Indiana.
 

UPDATED AFTER MICHIGAN STATE GAME:

Gophers are 11-9, 5-5. 10 games remain. Need 6 wins. Here they are:

Key #1
Win 1 of 3 of @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland (1 win)

Key #2
Win 1 of 3 vs. Penn State & Wisconsin (1 win)

Key #3
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (4 wins)
 
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UPDATED AFTER ILLINOIS GAME:

Gophers are 11-10, 5-6 Big Ten. 9 games remain. The Wisconsin game likely is the swing game in the season. Need 6 wins. Here they are:

Category #1
Win 1 of 3: Wisconsin, @ Penn State, @ Wisconsin

Category #2
Win 1 of 2: Iowa, Maryland

Category #3
Win all 4: Indiana, @ Northwestern, @ Indiana, Nebraska

And yes, I understand sweeping Indiana would be difficult, but it's doable. The reason I'm asking for a sweep is I think the Hoosiers are the most likely Big Ten team to be sharing the bubble with the Gophers at the end of the season, hence a head-to-head sweep would be significant.
 
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Gophers-Badgers will be a "crossroads" game for both teams. Assuming Bucky loses to MSU on Saturday, they'll come into the game at 12-10, 5-6 and on a 3-game losing streak. The Gophers are 11-10, 5-6 and on a 2-game losing streak. The loser is going to have a really steep hill to climb to make the NCAA Tournament.

Hope our guys are as sick and tired as the fans are of the Badgers having our number in both basketball & football. It's time to beat them in an extremely important game for both teams, and it's time to beat them to a pulp. Quite frankly, if the Gophers can't beat this middlin, yuck of a Badger team at Williams Arena -- at this particular time of the rivalry with the Badgers up against it with their recent issues -- I think there's a very good chance the Gophers season goes down the shi**er. Badgers are as vulnerable as they'll ever be. Simply, if Gophers are any good you can not lose this game.
 

Here's how I see it. IL is the best team in the league..... yes, including better than MSU.

remaining games. we need 6 more wins. 9 games left with 5 home games. Stumble and the target gets farther way by leaps and bounds. On a good note, we are done playing IL and MSU. I was higher on Ind. until their last game(they were never in it), they are beatable.


Wisky Win
PSU - Road - this will be tough 50/50
Iowa - Win
Ind. - Win
NW - Road Win
MD - They are playing well. Loss
Wisky - Road - winnable but... Loss
Ind. - Road 50/50
Neb - Win

Crossing both fingers that the shooting slumps end
 

UPDATED AFTER WISCONSIN GAME:

Gophers are 12-10, 6-6 Big Ten. 8 games remain. Need 5 wins. Here they are:

Category #1
Win 1 of: @ Penn State, @ Wisconsin

Category #2
Win 1 of: Iowa, Maryland

Category #3
Win 3 of: Indiana, @ Northwestern, @ Indiana, Nebraska
 

SelectionSunday said:
UPDATED AFTER WISCONSIN GAME:

Gophers are 12-10, 6-6 Big Ten. 8 games remain. Need 5 wins. Here they are:

Category #1
Win 1 of: @ Penn State, @ Wisconsin

Category #2
Win 1 of: Iowa, Maryland

Category #3
Win 3 of: Indiana, @ Northwestern, @ Indiana, Nebraska
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Home against Iowa seems like an easier game than @ Indiana.
 



Jaykay said:
Home against Iowa seems like an easier game than @ Indiana.
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Agree. Any home game is easier than a road game minus Nebby and NW. Iowa got lit up tonight and although they're tough, very beatable at home.
 

Using SS's original matrix at the start of this thread. (Reformatting for my own enjoyment).


Need 8 wins, here they are:

Key #1 (Sweep these 4)
Indiana, Northwestern, @Indiana, Nebraska

Key #2 (Win 2)
Penn State, Wisconsin, @Penn St, @Wisconsin

Key #3 (Win 2)
Win 2 of @ Rutgers, @ Ohio State, Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland






Updated. 5 to go.
 

Face The Facts said:
Using SS's original matrix at the start of this thread. (Reformatting for my own enjoyment).


Need 8 wins, here they are:

Key #1 (Sweep these 4)
Indiana, Northwestern, @Indiana, Nebraska

Key #2 (Win 2)
Penn State, Wisconsin, @Penn St, @Wisconsin

Key #3 (Win 2)
Win 2 of @ Rutgers, @ Ohio State, Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland






Updated. 5 to go.
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I really believe the gophers will beat Iowa. I think they’ll win @ PSU or @ wisco. Sweeping those 4 will be tough but winning another one from Key # 2 will more than make up for a misstep from Key # 1
 

Here are current records of some Big Ten teams vs. opponents in or under consideration for my Field of 68. As of Friday morning I consider Purdue, the Gophers, Indiana, and Michigan to be bubble teams to varying degrees. Wisconsin could join that group soon if they're not careful.

Ohio State (6-7)
Wisconsin (6-7)
Purdue (6-8)
GOPHERS (5-8)
Indiana (4-7)
Michigan (5-9)

Here's the Gopher breakdown:

vs. Oklahoma (L)
@ Butler (L)
@ Iowa (L)
Ohio State (W)
@ Purdue (L)
@ Michigan State (L)
Michigan (W)
Penn State (W)
@ Rutgers (L)
@ Ohio State (W)
Michigan State (L)
@ Illinois (L)
Wisconsin (W)
 



Ok so 6-1 the rest of the way makes them a lock and 5-2 puts them on the bubble, right?
 

UPDATED AFTER PENN STATE GAME:

Gophers are 12-11, 6-7 Big Ten. 7 games remain. Need 5 wins. Here they are:

Category #1
Win 2 of: Iowa, Maryland, @ Wisconsin

Category #2
Win 3 of: Indiana, @ Northwestern, @ Indiana, Nebraska
 

bfast said:
Ok so 6-1 the rest of the way makes them a lock and 5-2 puts them on the bubble, right?
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5-2 a lock.

There are going to be a lot of at-larges with 11, 12, 13 losses. If Gophers are 17-13, 11-9 heading to Indy, they won’t need to win any games there, though it would be nice. 16-14, 10-10 and they’ll need to win 2. Need to be 3 games over .500 somehow.
 

SelectionSunday said:
UPDATED AFTER PENN STATE GAME:

Gophers are 12-11, 6-7 Big Ten. 7 games remain. Need 5 wins. Here they are:

Category #1
Win 2 of: Iowa, Maryland, @ Wisconsin

Category #2
Win 3 of: Indiana, @ Northwestern, @ Indiana, Nebraska
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There are at least eight games left to play -- 7 for regular season and then the Big10 tournament. Let's say they go 4-3 in the regular season, and 1-1 for the BIG playoffs, so 5-4 overall. Does the five wins still get them into the dance?
 

SelectionSunday said:
5-2 a lock.

There are going to be a lot of at-larges with 11, 12, 13 losses. If Gophers are 17-13, 11-9 heading to Indy, they won’t need to win any games there, though it would be nice. 16-14, 10-10 and they’ll need to win 2. Need to be 3 games over .500 somehow.
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I commented on this when the Gophers released their schedule several months ago - the failure to schedule the maximum allowable number of games may come back to haunt us at selection time. If we had scheduled another beatable opponent at home, a 10-10 Big Ten finish would have yielded a 17-14 overall record and may have been a difference maker.
 


Using SS's original matrix at the start of this thread. (Reformatting for my own enjoyment).


Need 8 wins, here they are:

Key #1 (Sweep these 4)
Indiana, Northwestern, @Indiana, Nebraska

Key #2 (Win 2)
Penn State, Wisconsin, @Penn St, @Wisconsin

Key #3 (Win 2)
Win 2 of @ Rutgers, @ Ohio State, Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland


Need to win 5 of 6?
 

UPDATED AFTER IOWA GAME:

Gophers are 12-12, 6-8 Big Ten. 6 games remain. Need 5 wins. Here they are:

Category #1
Win all of: Indiana, @ Northwestern, @ Indiana, Nebraska

Category #2
Win 1 of: Maryland, @ Wisconsin
 
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Most of you said the same thing last year at this time. Beat Purdue twice and an NCAA game to end the season. Just saying.
 

It's not over until it's over.
Seems every year the bubble is really weak.

But yesterday was a gut punch.
 

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