Time to reevaluate

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WilliamsArenaGuy

WilliamsArenaGuy

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Last night was just a disgusting display. There is no explanation for it whatsoever. The problem is what it could lead to. We won't be favored again this year. The probability is higher than not that they lose to NW, then lose as a 10 seed in the first round of the BTT. If that happens, they may miss the postseason altogether.

Knowing how transfers work, there will be some, but will they be the key players?

As someone who has been all in this year and more invested in this team than in years AND was ready to say maybe Johnson can actually do this thing (I have loved this team since the first NE game when everything clicked), I now think this...

If we lose three straight, flame out in the BT tourney in MPLS, miss the postseason AND then Garcia, Fox, Christie and even others transfer, you HAVE to move on and get a new coach. Right????

Johnson deserves another year if it is building off this current season. If they sneak into the NIT and basically all the key players return, then definitely, you have to give him that chance.

But if the nightmare scenario I laid out happens (and it is a distinct possibility), then it's time. Nothing should be guaranteed at this point.
 

WilliamsArenaGuy said:
Last night was just a disgusting display. There is no explanation for it whatsoever. The problem is what it could lead to. We won't be favored again this year. The probability is higher than not that they lose to NW, then lose as a 10 seed in the first round of the BTT. If that happens, they may miss the postseason altogether.

Knowing how transfers work, there will be some, but will they be the key players?

As someone who has been all in this year and more invested in this team than in years AND was ready to say maybe Johnson can actually do this thing (I have loved this team since the first NE game when everything clicked), I now think this...

If we lose three straight, flame out in the BT tourney in MPLS, miss the postseason AND then Garcia, Fox, Christie and even others transfer, you HAVE to move on and get a new coach. Right????

Johnson deserves another year if it is building off this current season. If they sneak into the NIT and basically all the key players return, then definitely, you have to give him that chance.

But if the nightmare scenario I laid out happens (and it is a distinct possibility), then it's time. Nothing should be guaranteed at this point.
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Certainly much to ponder in Dinkytown. Let's hope Ben makes this easy and strings together some victories to close out the year.
 

WilliamsArenaGuy said:
Last night was just a disgusting display. There is no explanation for it whatsoever. The problem is what it could lead to. We won't be favored again this year. The probability is higher than not that they lose to NW, then lose as a 10 seed in the first round of the BTT. If that happens, they may miss the postseason altogether.

Knowing how transfers work, there will be some, but will they be the key players?

As someone who has been all in this year and more invested in this team than in years AND was ready to say maybe Johnson can actually do this thing (I have loved this team since the first NE game when everything clicked), I now think this...

If we lose three straight, flame out in the BT tourney in MPLS, miss the postseason AND then Garcia, Fox, Christie and even others transfer, you HAVE to move on and get a new coach. Right????

Johnson deserves another year if it is building off this current season. If they sneak into the NIT and basically all the key players return, then definitely, you have to give him that chance.

But if the nightmare scenario I laid out happens (and it is a distinct possibility), then it's time. Nothing should be guaranteed at this point.
Click to expand...

Very fair post and analysis. Seeing how Coyle operates, I see no way he makes a move after us sitting at 9-9, but as often happens in Minnesota, we make a move 1-2 years late.

But if everyone comes back that we want to come back, I'm glad Coyle stepped out of character and predicted a preseason Top 25 ranking for the squad. NCAA Tournament or bust next season if Johnson is back.

Go Gophers!!
 

BleedGopher said:
Very fair post and analysis. Seeing how Coyle operates, I see no way he makes a move after us sitting at 9-9, but as often happens in Minnesota, we make a move 1-2 years late.

But if everyone comes back that we want to come back, I'm glad Coyle stepped out of character and predicted a preseason Top 25 ranking for the squad. NCAA Tournament or bust next season if Johnson is back.

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...

Tbh. I think that was a subtle way for Coyle to say next year the final straw
 

WilliamsArenaGuy said:
Last night was just a disgusting display. There is no explanation for it whatsoever. The problem is what it could lead to. We won't be favored again this year. The probability is higher than not that they lose to NW, then lose as a 10 seed in the first round of the BTT. If that happens, they may miss the postseason altogether.

Knowing how transfers work, there will be some, but will they be the key players?

As someone who has been all in this year and more invested in this team than in years AND was ready to say maybe Johnson can actually do this thing (I have loved this team since the first NE game when everything clicked), I now think this...

If we lose three straight, flame out in the BT tourney in MPLS, miss the postseason AND then Garcia, Fox, Christie and even others transfer, you HAVE to move on and get a new coach. Right????

Johnson deserves another year if it is building off this current season. If they sneak into the NIT and basically all the key players return, then definitely, you have to give him that chance.

But if the nightmare scenario I laid out happens (and it is a distinct possibility), then it's time. Nothing should be guaranteed at this point.
Click to expand...
I mean sure....if the team falls apart over the final games and then the whole team leaves it would be silly not to make a change. This year has earned Johnson another year with this squad but if he was going to be starting over from the beginning again next year then it would be better for the program to just end it now and move on.
 




WilliamsArenaGuy said:
They'll probably come out and beat NW Saturday now. 🤪

And that would be great if they did.
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It would be fitting for us to do just that and would be a good sign to bounce back.

Yet another big offseason for Ben - Lot more potential promise this time around though. There are pieces.
 

In general there is too much overreaction on this board. Both ways. No singular game should sway opinion as much as it does here. He didn't deserve a three year extension after keeping it close with Purdue or beating Michigan State. He also didn't deserve to be fired after the game last night. It's why we always need to look at the season/tenure in totality.

This year was a step forward for sure but it still represents a mediocre year by college basketball standards. The problem is mediocre puts you above the 50th percentile by Minnesota standards. Is that good enough and is the trajectory high enough? That's the core issue.
 




golfing18now said:
In general there is too much overreaction on this board. Both ways. No singular game should sway opinion as much as it does here. He didn't deserve a three year extension after keeping it close with Purdue or beating Michigan State. He also didn't deserve to be fired after the game last night. It's why we always need to look at the season/tenure in totality.

This year was a step forward for sure but it still represents a mediocre year by college basketball standards. The problem is mediocre puts you above the 50th percentile by Minnesota standards. Is that good enough and is the trajectory high enough? That's the core issue.
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That's exactly my point. He shouldn't be fired for last night, but it could easily be the start of a disastrous ending. That, coupled with what happened that past two years, would mean it's time to move on. He can make it all moot by winning at least one game and making the NIT. Then fine, we hope for the best next year.
 


BleedGopher said:
Very fair post and analysis. Seeing how Coyle operates, I see no way he makes a move after us sitting at 9-9, but as often happens in Minnesota, we make a move 1-2 years late.

But if everyone comes back that we want to come back, I'm glad Coyle stepped out of character and predicted a preseason Top 25 ranking for the squad. NCAA Tournament or bust next season if Johnson is back.

Go Gophers!!
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I'd be more impressed with an end of season top 25 ranking than a preseason one!
 





MUgopher32 said:
Tbh. I think that was a subtle way for Coyle to say next year the final straw
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Us fans are left guessing, so I guess we guess. That's a good guess.

Like I posted in that other thread, you never want to overreact to one game or even a short winning or losing streak. The part that troubles me is how much whiplash there's been adjusting to whichever Gopher team happens to show up in any one half of basketball. They seem to have two general speeds: unstoppable and sleepwalking. I don't get it.
 

Bad Gopher said:
Us fans are left guessing, so I guess we guess. That's a good guess.

Like I posted in that other thread, you never want to overreact to one game or even a short winning or losing streak. The part that troubles me is how much whiplash there's been adjusting to whichever Gopher team happens to show up in any one half of basketball. They seem to have two general speeds: unstoppable and sleepwalking. I don't get it.
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The answer is that Ben has most of the D1 coaching skills covered at this point except for one - knowing how to motivate his team on a core phycological level - so it can be kinda hit or miss. This is the one area that might take Ben a dozen years to really figure out if he ever does. A mature modern coach will be able to get the players ready using a mix of fatherly respect, fear, friendship, and passion. It is more intuitive for a Painter or Izzo or whoever else you want to throw out there.

Do you pull a kid aside and put your arm around him to instruct, scream at him to get it through his thick skull or lightning rod the kid next to him (because he is the only one on the team that can take being yelled at) to get your point across or instill the confidence needed by a particular player.

Laugh at this if you want but I believe it is his biggest weakness right now. The team has a Sports Psychologist (Carly Anderson) whos job is to help. I just don't think it is working right now.

FWIW
 

WilliamsArenaGuy said:
They'll probably come out and beat NW Saturday now. 🤪

And that would be great if they did.
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If they beat NW, that probably locks up an NIT bid and renders this discussion moot, even if there are core players leaving we don't want to see. But I agree, if they miss the NIT and more than one starter leaves, we should make a run at Muss/Medved/Smith.
 

Unless something completely unexpected happens like a mass exodus of players CBJ will be getting year 4 no matter what.

The AD made that clear with the top 25 talk.
 

It’s not just motivating though. Consistently in the conference schedule we spotted our opponent double digit leads In the first half. The scouting and game planning has been a big issue. In game, and particularly half time adjustments, have lead to quite a few comeback wins and close losses, but it’s been a very consistent issue for the majority of the conference season.
 






howeda7 said:
If they beat NW, that probably locks up an NIT bid and renders this discussion moot, even if there are core players leaving we don't want to see. But I agree, if they miss the NIT and more than one starter leaves, we should make a run at Muss/Medved/Smith.
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Right. That's all it will take. One unexpected win. A trip to the NIT. Then we avoid the nightmare scenario. I'm still rooting for them, to be clear.
 

I think if anyone would have said that, at the end of year 3, we're no better off than where we were when Pitino got fired, mostly everyone would be wanting a change. We've improved, from last year to this year(because it was so brutal last year), but as an overall program, we haven't shown any improvement from the situation that was left.

It's kind of crazy to wait until a fourth year, to maybe make the tournament, but that's where we are. There's just so many better coaches at the mid-major level, that would be a huge upgrade. But we'll roll CBJ out there again next year and hope for the best.
 

howeda7 said:
If they beat NW, that probably locks up an NIT bid and renders this discussion moot, even if there are core players leaving we don't want to see. But I agree, if they miss the NIT and more than one starter leaves, we should make a run at Muss/Medved/Smith.
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I hate to start going down this road as Ben can still make it happen I think, BUT, I don't know how you don't go Medved if the job opens again. What he's doing with that team in Bozeman is impressive.
 


Some aspects of the game are controllable. For example, effort in defense usually yields results. Cause and effect.

On the other hand, shooting varies randomly. Once the ball leaves, it's uncontrollable, within a range of variation. Working on this helps, of course, and experience helps.

Look at Hawkins scoring over 20 a few games ago, but not yesterday. Christie put up good -- even really good -- numbers in some games that alternated with nothing-blah games.

I'm only pointing out this one element, not a bigger point.

Christie is a freshman. This NBA talk has people forgetting that he isn't anywhere near his top yet and still a freshman.
 

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