Thoughts on West and Conference as a whole after 2 weeks

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MNVCGUY

MNVCGUY

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2 games in the books and still a ton of unknowns across the conference. Here is my general take on things 2 games in, curious what others are thinking.

In regards to the conference as a whole - Michigan and Penn State are looking like the teams to beat so far. Way too early to count out Ohio State but they have not looked like themselves over the first two games. Guessing they figure it out eventually but right now they seem behind the other two big dogs in the East. East in general is off to a solid start this season.

Looking at the West - Yeah it is wide friggin open again this year. Minnesota and Iowa are the only remaining unbeatens but neither has looked dominant through two weeks.

Minnesota - Defense has been phenomenal, offense is a work in progress. West is there to be won if the offense puts it all together.

Iowa - Offense is still a mess, defense is still good but maybe not as good as they have been in recent years.

Wisconsin - Badgers look ok but they are a tough team to get a real read on to this point. But they certainly have not looked dominant.

I fee like the division is going to come down to those 3 teams again because the rest just feel flawed in fairly significant ways. Illinois doesn't look good, Purdue seems ok, Nebraska is already 0-2 and Northwestern, in spite of the win against UTEP, is going to really struggle this year.

Long way to go and things will almost certainly change and evolve.
 

I tend to agree with most of your thoughts. Gophers need to beat Iowa this year or Iowa will be in Indy IMO. I kind of wish we hosted tOSU and were on the road at Michigan. I'd love to be 5-0 going into the Michigan game and then get a bye week to prepare for Iowa.
 

MNVCGUY said:
2 games in the books and still a ton of unknowns across the conference. Here is my general take on things 2 games in, curious what others are thinking.

In regards to the conference as a whole - Michigan and Penn State are looking like the teams to beat so far. Way too early to count out Ohio State but they have not looked like themselves over the first two games. Guessing they figure it out eventually but right now they seem behind the other two big dogs in the East. East in general is off to a solid start this season.

Looking at the West - Yeah it is wide friggin open again this year. Minnesota and Iowa are the only remaining unbeatens but neither has looked dominant through two weeks.

Minnesota - Defense has been phenomenal, offense is a work in progress. West is there to be won if the offense puts it all together.
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Minnesota offense doesn’t look good. But I think it has more upside than Iowa. Against equal schedules I would pick Mn
MNVCGUY said:
Iowa - Offense is still a mess, defense is still good but maybe not as good as they have been in recent years.
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Defense is good. If they score defensive points they’re really tough to beat. They aren’t the type of team that can go 12-0 even against this schedule. If they go 9-3 the gophers have a chance to win the division.
MNVCGUY said:
Wisconsin - Badgers look ok but they are a tough team to get a real read on to this point. But they certainly have not looked dominant.
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I disagree that the badgers looked okay. This is going to be the worst Wisconsin defense is a long time.
MNVCGUY said:
I fee like the division is going to come down to those 3 teams again because the rest just feel flawed in fairly significant ways. Illinois doesn't look good, Purdue seems ok, Nebraska is already 0-2 and Northwestern, in spite of the win against UTEP, is going to really struggle this year.

Long way to go and things will almost certainly change and evolve.
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I think it’s a two team race. Wisconsin closer to Illinois than IA and MN.
Iowa is the favorite.
 


Good thoughts. It is difficult to tell this early in the season. Gophers' passing game is going to have to improve or we're going to see defenses stack up to bottle up the running game. Kaliakmanis has some talent, but Fleck's approach seems to be to in effect place show bets on the favorite when it comes to the passing game. I use to gripe about the Kill/Limegrover Pop Warner passing schemes, but outside of the seasons when we had Johnson and Bateman, Fleck's approach doesn't seem to be that much different even with a more athletic set of receivers.

I think our defense and Iowa's are comparable, except Iowa always seems to be more disruptive in the front seven.

Didn't see either of the Wisconsin games, but it's probably Year 0.5 East of the St. Croix. They have a good base of talent and Fickell has shown he can coach, but there's a lot of transition going on in schemes (especially on offense). It may take them awhile, but I wouldn't count them out.

Illinois won't win the West, but they could be a headache for anyone. I think Purdue is down, but like Illinois, on any given Saturday, they have enough to win games where they will be dogs. I think Northwestern and Nebraska are going to be hard-pressed to win a conference game.
 


Some guy said:
I think it’s a two team race. Wisconsin closer to Illinois than IA and MN.
Iowa is the favorite.
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I agree with this sentiment and actually was tempted to lump Wisconsin in with the rest of the West but didn't because I am always hesitant to count them out too early. They did a good job battling back against WSU but Mordecai seems like a turnover machine against any kind of solid defense.

And yeah, defensively the Badgers definitely do not look anything close to how good they have looked in recent years.
 

50PoundHead said:
Good thoughts. It is difficult to tell this early in the season. Gophers' passing game is going to have to improve or we're going to see defenses stack up to bottle up the running game. Kaliakmanis has some talent, but Fleck's approach seems to be to in effect place show bets on the favorite when it comes to the passing game. I use to gripe about the Kill/Limegrover Pop Warner passing schemes, but outside of the seasons when we had Johnson and Bateman, Fleck's approach doesn't seem to be that much different even with a more athletic set of receivers.

I think our defense and Iowa's are comparable, except Iowa always seems to be more disruptive in the front seven.

Didn't see either of the Wisconsin games, but it's probably Year 0.5 East of the St. Croix. They have a good base of talent and Fickell has shown he can coach, but there's a lot of transition going on in schemes (especially on offense). It may take them awhile, but I wouldn't count them out.

Illinois won't win the West, but they could be a headache for anyone. I think Purdue is down, but like Illinois, on any given Saturday, they have enough to win games where they will be dogs. I think Northwestern and Nebraska are going to be hard-pressed to win a conference game.
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I actually think Nebraska can play spoiler this year kind of how they almost did against us. They won't be a threat to win the division but like Purdue and Illinois they might win a game they shouldn't along the way to make things interesting.

There doesn't look to be a great team in the West so the any given Saturday thing will apply pretty much every week.

In regards to the Gophers offense I think it is too early to say what we are going to look like. In game one we couldn't run and went to the air 44 times, in game 2 the emphasis was clearly on working on the run game with a great deal of success. I would expect to see them go for a much more balanced attack next week against UNC.
 

I just don’t get how Iowa always figures out a way to win.

Beat Iowa State.

They will probably beat us in Iowa City, and that win combined with an extra loss to the East for us (Mich, OSU, compared to just Penn St for Iowa) will give Iowa the West title.


Four best Fleck years, 2019, 2021-23, all four the West is on the table for Gophers to win, and so far first three they found a way to not win it because couldn’t get it done against Wisc and/or Iowa.

Be a G-D shame if the fourth and final year of the West goes down the same.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I agree with this sentiment and actually was tempted to lump Wisconsin in with the rest of the West but didn't because I am always hesitant to count them out too early. They did a good job battling back against WSU but Mordecai seems like a turnover machine against any kind of solid defense.

And yeah, defensively the Badgers definitely do not look anything close to how good they have looked in recent years.
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I also think Washington state is going to be like the 7-9 range in the pac 12
That’s not a top half wazzu team
 



Iowa and Wisconsin don’t look much different than last year. The much hyped offenses haven’t taken off. Illinois to me is clearly worse than last year on both sides of the ball, they don’t have the run game or the secondary. Purdue is still in the mix I think, I think offensively they have looked as good as anyone in the west, Card is looking like the winner of the transfer QBs that joined the conference. I have to think the defensive minded coach will make some improvements, but the talent level isn’t super high on that side of the ball for them.
 

Yards per play offense and national rank:

Wisconsin: 6.0 (32)
Minnesota: 4.6 (97)
Iowa: 4.3 (106)

Wisconsin's offense has definitely looked the best moving the ball. Their passing game is way ahead of the other two. But they're also turning the ball over way too much.

Yard per play Defense:

Iowa: 4.2 (25)
Minnesota: 4.3 (27)
Wisconsin: 4.5 (38)

This one surprised me. I thought Minnesota would be higher but then again Nebraska was able to move the ball on them somewhat but like Wisconsin turns the ball over too much. I also thought Wisconsin would be lower.

Overall I still give the Badgers a slight edge. I think Minnesota and Iowa would have lost at WSU as well. They got a good QB who is tough to defend and B1G teams traveling west to play P5 teams has proven to be very difficult. Wisconsin & Iowa have much easier schedules. Wisconsin also gets Iowa at home.

Wisconsin has to figure out a way to take care of the ball. Minnesota has been a little loose with the ball too. Minnesota and Iowa both just really struggling to move the ball. Minnesota looks far better at running than Iowa. And much more physical. Iowa has a couple TEs and a WR that can make plays down the field but a hobbled QB.

Minnesota has a big test Saturday. Toughest opponent yet for any of the 3. Iowa's test is in 2 weeks at PSU. They're likely going to get thumped. Wisconsin's schedule sets up for them to go on a little run here.
 

btowngopher said:
Iowa and Wisconsin don’t look much different than last year. The much hyped offenses haven’t taken off. Illinois to me is clearly worse than last year on both sides of the ball, they don’t have the run game or the secondary. Purdue is still in the mix I think, I think offensively they have looked as good as anyone in the west, Card is looking like the winner of the transfer QBs that joined the conference. I have to think the defensive minded coach will make some improvements, but the talent level isn’t super high on that side of the ball for them.
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Purdue defense is awful and schedule is also awful
 

People need to remember that division games are a crap shoot as the staffs know and study each other the most. To this point there has been one division game played and MN snuck out a 13-10 victory over Nebraska. Non-conference games get the least amount of detailed preparation by coaching staffs. It's still a wide-open division as teams start to put tendencies on film.
 



MaxyJR1 said:
People need to remember that division games are a crap shoot as the staffs know and study each other the most. To this point there has been one division game played and MN snuck out a 13-10 victory over Nebraska. Non-conference games get the least amount of detailed preparation by coaching staffs. It's still a wide-open division as teams start to put tendencies on film.
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This definitely has the feel of another one of those years where pretty much anyone can beat anyone in the division and there won't really be any sure things in terms of matchups. Lot will come down to who can stay healthy and make plays in those key situations.
 

yeah i tend to agree with most of your thoughts

1A. Iowa: defense is stout yet again. McNamara doesn't seem to have increased the ceiling much but has decreased the the floor so far by not making the crippling mistakes of Petras. That will go a long way
1B. Minnesota: our defense will be tough. can't forget we're missing our do everything LB right now too so they should only get better. Offense just has to do enough. It's going to feel a little like Iowa for us at times but our D is good enough it can beat anyone in the west. Just have to not be the killer
These 2 seem to be the odds on divisional favorites; both still trying to figure out offenses but the least flawed

3. Wisconsin: have taken a step back on both sides of the ball in year one of the transition, which isn't surprising. when it's all rolling, they will have the horses to beat anyone in the West (OSU will still outtalent them later this year) but when it's shit they could lose to Purdue or NE. Maybe they'll get better but there's a gap between them and the top 2 so far
4. Purdue: Seems like a team that when things go right they will have the ability to beat one of the 3 above them, but there's too many flaws defensively. have some fun pieces on offense though and they have a better QB than anyone below them.
5. Illinois: the defense took a massive step back and Altmeyer is a very mediocre QB at best. They should have some pieces offensively to score, but he seems to be the lynchpin that will hold them back.
6. NE: their defense seems to be pretty good but my god their offense is awful. Bad QB play, lack of an identity, scheme makes no sense with their players. Their defense may stifle the likes of Iowa, but don't think they're scoring more than 10 on offense.
7. NW: I'm happy they got a win this week. This team is bad from front to back. If you don't make mistakes you will beat them comfortably (ie what UTEP failed to do with 3 picks, 2 turnovers on downs and a missed FG). They will play sound football fundamentally but just don't have the talent.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
People need to remember that division games are a crap shoot as the staffs know and study each other the most. To this point there has been one division game played and MN snuck out a 13-10 victory over Nebraska. Non-conference games get the least amount of detailed preparation by coaching staffs. It's still a wide-open division as teams start to put tendencies on film.
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a crap shoot is a bit of an overstatement. I get what you're saying about scheme and such, but you also have to have some players. NW is going to struggle this year not because they don't know what's coming, but because they're guys aren't as good as the other teams'.

The part that will make the West particularly wide open is that there's no grade A QB in the whole division. If just one of these teams aside from NW had a high tier QB (and I'm not saying all American/1st rounder guy like Caleb Williams, more like a Jalon Daniels at Kansas or Sam Hartman at ND), they would take the division comfortably. Mistakes will be what decides most of these games as well as big moments like AK had against WI last year.
 

upnorthkid said:
a crap shoot is a bit of an overstatement. I get what you're saying about scheme and such, but you also have to have some players. NW is going to struggle this year not because they don't know what's coming, but because they're guys aren't as good as the other teams'.

The part that will make the West particularly wide open is that there's no grade A QB in the whole division. If just one of these teams aside from NW had a high tier QB (and I'm not saying all American/1st rounder guy like Caleb Williams, more like a Jalon Daniels at Kansas or Sam Hartman at ND), they would take the division comfortably. Mistakes will be what decides most of these games as well as big moments like AK had against WI last year.
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Truthfully, it's Iowa, Wisconsin and MN as the favorites until you factor in cross over games.
 

Some guy said:
Purdue defense is awful and schedule is also awful
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They did much better against VT, not that VT is good. I don’t expect them to win the West, but they are the defending champs and I think they are being written off too soon. Their schedule isn’t much different than ours as far as conference play.
 

Feels like more of the same to me. Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota are basically equal. It will come down to who plays well against each other to decide the West.

What PJ has to do: BEAT BURT, BEAT IOWA
 

Things will become more clear in a week or two.
Can the MN defense slow down the NC offense?
Can IA beat teams that have an offense that can score against them?
Will Fickell tell Tressel to fix the defense or hit the road?
How long will Ruhl stick with a turnover-machine QB?
 

btowngopher said:
They did much better against VT, not that VT is good. I don’t expect them to win the West, but they are the defending champs and I think they are being written off too soon. Their schedule isn’t much different than ours as far as conference play.
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Yes the D looked better week 2, but VT was 3-8 last year and they were playing in bad field conditions.

Their schedule is much more difficult than the gophers IMO
It isn’t just the opponents, it is also the order of the opponents. They may roll into MN already with 7 losses.
 

Agree it is too early to write off Purdue, and frankly feel the same way about Illinois as well.

If we go down and lose to a basketball school by a score of 23-34 ... does that mean we should pack it in for the year?
 

I mostly agree. It's still early, but it appears like the bar to win the West is lower that it has ever been (and it has been pretty low post 2019). I won't rule out Wisconsin simply because @Washington State is clearly the toughest game any of the West contenders have played to date (assuming Nebraska is not a contender thus eliminating their games against Minnesota and Colorado). Everybody seems flawed and a step (or more) below their 2022 team.

So what does Minnesota need to improve on the rest of the way and clear this low bar and finally win the Big Ten West? To me, it's going to come down to a consistent passing game that also mixes in a few explosive plays that have been largely absent to date. I am just not sure our line is physical enough to sustain enough drives/score enough points playing the way we did against EMU or for much of last season. If we can run to set up the pass, I actually really like Tyler's chances of creating some explosive runs...he's just got to hold on to the ball. My hot take on defense is that Baranowski and Lindenberg have a chance to be the best pair of LB's in Fleck's tenure by late in the season assuming Baranowski continues to improve and Lindenberg is all the way healthy. My main concerns on defense to date our how we will hold up against a team with a good passing offense (not much of a concern in the B1G West) and our defensive tackle depth. With Jeffries reportedly out for the season, there's just not a lot behind Baugh and Eastern and we are going to ask those guys to play a lot of snaps against physical football teams. Baugh is a smaller guy and Eastern is getting his first extended action. It would be great if Logan Richter could step up here.
 

I think everyone is on point, many similarities in these teams. I do feel that they have the best QB to throw (or potential anyway) than they have had in a long, long time. Receivers are deepest since I can remember and while they don’t have Tyler and Bateman they are deeper than that time. OC’s have to better figure out how to use all this talent, they seem to have found their run game. I hope they can because this could be a very good team if they do.
 

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