Michigan is a good example of this league. They were good in early NC play, beating Gonzaga, Creighton, UNC and dropping a game to Oregon by 1. They have been ranked for several weeks, but they lost 2 road games this week. They will drop out of the polls.
The truth is that they are currently at 0. They haven't lost at home nor won on the road in league play. Take a look at their next 8 games:
1-22 H 30 • Penn St. -5.7, 76-71 71%
1-25 H 31 • Illinois -5.4, 71-66 71%
1-28 A 130 • Nebraska -7.7, 79-71 76%
2-01 N 15 • Rutgers +0.8, 66-65 46%
2-04 H 10 • Ohio St. -0.9, 69-68 54%
2-08 H 9 • Michigan St. +0.1, 75-74 50%
2-12 A 96 • Northwestern -4.5, 71-67 68%
2-16 H 44 • Indiana -6.6, 74-67 75%
It is not out of the question that they could win all 8 of those. Suddenly they would be 10-4 in the league and the pundits would be lauding them as a dark horse contender.
That would be incorrect as well. They would be +2. Good, but nothing special until they continue to win in the final 6.