These 5 teams could win the Big Ten, but only with a little luck and a lot of help (4. Minnesota)

[BleedGopher]

Per Josh:

4. Minnesota Golden Gophers​

Head Coach: PJ Fleck | Last Season: 8-5 (5-4)

PJ Fleck almost always finds a way to win a game or two that he shouldn’t, but don’t expect those games to come on the road in Columbus or Eugene. The Golden Gophers got a difficult schedule draw with both Oregon and Ohio State on the road, so they may already be out of luck, but Fleck is too good a coach to put Minnesota in the “no chance” tier.

These 5 teams could win the Big Ten, but only with a little luck and a lot of help

Penn State, Oregon, and Ohio State are the front-runners in the Big Ten this season, but these underdogs could shock their way to Indianapolis with a few breaks

victorybellrings.com

Go Gophers!!

 

[WAGopher]

Per Josh:

4. Minnesota Golden Gophers​

Head Coach: PJ Fleck | Last Season: 8-5 (5-4)

PJ Fleck almost always finds a way to win a game or two that he shouldn’t, but don’t expect those games to come on the road in Columbus or Eugene. The Golden Gophers got a difficult schedule draw with both Oregon and Ohio State on the road, so they may already be out of luck, but Fleck is too good a coach to put Minnesota in the “no chance” tier.

These 5 teams could win the Big Ten, but only with a little luck and a lot of help

Penn State, Oregon, and Ohio State are the front-runners in the Big Ten this season, but these underdogs could shock their way to Indianapolis with a few breaks

victorybellrings.com

Go Gophers!!

More talk like this might get the Gophers in the preseason top 25.

 

[FredCoxRocks]

More talk like this might get the Gophers in the preseason top 25.

Now, now...we know those spots are always reserved for Nebraska and Wisconsin.

 

[60's Guy]

More talk like this might get the Gophers in the preseason top 25.

See now, I had a different take...I was pissed he rated us behind Washington, Iowa and Michigan State. Maybe bigger question...did Illinois cancel their season...they will be a tough out.

 

[fmlizard]

There's enough games the Gophers will be favored in (up to 10 of 12) that making the Big Ten title game isn't insane. It would take a lot of luck and consistency to run that part of the table since the Gophers usually don't have a huge margin for bad games against weak B1G teams.

But it's very unlikely to happen without winning one of @ Ohio State or @ Oregon. Then they would probably have to beat a team like that again in Indy.

The "PJ Fleck always finds a way to win a game or two he shouldn't" isn't very accurate to me. He's more notable for consistency against the mid and lower tier than rising up and pulling big upsets.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

dink-o-meter displays no dink found.

 

[TNGophfan]

There's enough games the Gophers will be favored in (up to 10 of 12) that making the Big Ten title game isn't insane. It would take a lot of luck and consistency to run that part of the table since the Gophers usually don't have a huge margin for bad games against weak B1G teams.

But it's very unlikely to happen without winning one of @ Ohio State or @ Oregon. Then they would probably have to beat a team like that again in Indy.

The "PJ Fleck always finds a way to win a game or two he shouldn't" isn't very accurate to me. He's more notable for consistency against the mid and lower tier than rising up and pulling big upsets.

Agree with that. Only exceptions were Penn State and maybe a couple Sconny games.

 

[MNVCGUY]

See now, I had a different take...I was pissed he rated us behind Washington, Iowa and Michigan State. Maybe bigger question...did Illinois cancel their season...they will be a tough out.

Weird article all the way around.....lists Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State as front runners....nothing wrong there.

Then proceeds to list 5 teams that could win the conference but for some reason leaves out the 2 most likely contenders in Illinois and Michigan who both have really nice schedules. I would rank both of those teams ahead of any of the teams he picked in terms of best chances to win the conference this year.

 

[Some guy]

I find it hard to believe that a 2 loss team makes big ten title game but I haven’t checked the whole schedule yet for the conference

There are 9 games on the schedule I expect to win. They might lose one or two but it will be hugely disappointing to lose to:
Buffalo
Northwestern state
Cal
Rutgers
Purdue
Nebraska
Michigan state
Northwestern
Wisconsin

Will be a minor underdog to Iowa assuming Iowa is what Iowa always is.

Long shot games vs Oregon and Ohio state

Probably need 8 wins for me to feel good about the season and 10 wins to feel great about the season

 

[Some guy]

Weird article all the way around.....lists Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State as front runners....nothing wrong there.

Then proceeds to list 5 teams that could win the conference but for some reason leaves out the 2 most likely contenders in Illinois and Michigan who both have really nice schedules. I would rank both of those teams ahead of any of the teams he picked in terms of best chances to win the conference this year.

If Illinois is 5-0 they’re going to make the playoff
4th and 5th games are huge and would mean they’re going to clean up against bottom half

Michigan is probably going to win 8 games but I have a hard time seeing 10+

 

[MNVCGUY]

If Illinois is 5-0 they’re going to make the playoff
4th and 5th games are huge and would mean they’re going to clean up against bottom half

Michigan is probably going to win 8 games but I have a hard time seeing 10+

I could easily see Illinois having a season like Indiana did last year with their schedule.

As for Michigan....a ton will of course hinge on their hotshot young QB. Of the big 3 (Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon) they only face OSU. If things break right for them I could see them being in the mix for the title.

 

[WAGopher]

I find it hard to believe that a 2 loss team makes big ten title game but I haven’t checked the whole schedule yet for the conference

There are 9 games on the schedule I expect to win. They might lose one or two but it will be hugely disappointing to lose to:
Buffalo
Northwestern state
Cal
Rutgers
Purdue
Nebraska
Michigan state
Northwestern
Wisconsin

Will be a minor underdog to Iowa assuming Iowa is what Iowa always is.

Long shot games vs Oregon and Ohio state

Probably need 8 wins for me to feel good about the season and 10 wins to feel great about the season

10 wins is probably the ceiling this year. But if we beat one of the O’s, I’ll be ticked if we drop one to Iowa, or any of the other beatables.

 

[mngg11]

10 wins is probably the ceiling this year. But if we beat one of the O’s, I’ll be ticked if we drop one to Iowa, or any of the other beatables.

That's exactly what will happen, and you, me, and the rest of us know it. We'll do something like pulling a win out of our asses in the Horseshoe and then allow 250+ rushing yards to Iowa, or lose to Michigan State by 30 and then beat Oregon 27-24. This team is always weird.

 

[Some guy]

I could easily see Illinois having a season like Indiana did last year with their schedule.

As for Michigan....a ton will of course hinge on their hotshot young QB. Of the big 3 (Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon) they only face OSU. If things break right for them I could see them being in the mix for the title.

The way teams I see in contention don’t really play each other this year I think it’ll take 8-1 to have a shot at a title
Maybe have 4 teams at 8-1 or better

 

[MNVCGUY]

The way teams I see in contention don’t really play each other this year I think it’ll take 8-1 to have a shot at a title
Maybe have 4 teams at 8-1 or better

If it does play out the OSU, PSU and Oregon are the top 3 then PSU holds the key to the conference this year since they are the only one that plays the other 2 and OSU/Oregon don't meet in the regular season.

Oregon and OSU could run the table in their other games.

 

[Some guy]

If it does play out the OSU, PSU and Oregon are the top 3 then PSU holds the key to the conference this year since they are the only one that plays the other 2 and OSU/Oregon don't meet in the regular season.

Oregon and OSU could run the table in their other games.

Correct
I also for some reason in my brain assume USC will be good and their schedule only has one of those 3 on it as well.

Michigan plays USC and only one of Oregon/Penn State/Ohio state

Illinois doesn’t play Michigan, Penn state, or Oregon

Minnesota doesn’t play USC, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State


I haven’t run the permutations and haven’t seen anyone else run them but I assume there are some 4 way tie scenarios for second place where nobody has played more than one other team in the tie

 

[MNVCGUY]

Correct
I also for some reason in my brain assume USC will be good and their schedule only has one of those 3 on it as well.

Michigan plays USC and only one of Oregon/Penn State/Ohio state

Illinois doesn’t play Michigan, Penn state, or Oregon

Minnesota doesn’t play USC, Michigan, Illinois, Penn State


I haven’t run the permutations and haven’t seen anyone else run them but I assume there are some 4 way tie scenarios for second place where nobody has played more than one other team in the tie

Fixed the Minnesota section as we don't play PSU not OSU.

USC is a wild card but hasn't been up to their old standards for a while. Illinois and Michigan both caught a break only playing 1 of the Big 3 which is why I think both of them could be in the mix.

If Illinois is good though they could have a special year with their schedule.

 

[Some guy]

Fixed the Minnesota section as we don't play PSU not OSU.

USC is a wild card but hasn't been up to their old standards for a while. Illinois and Michigan both caught a break only playing 1 of the Big 3 which is why I think both of them could be in the mix.

If Illinois is good though they could have a special year with their schedule.

Yup. And the no round robin means we could have 1 team at 9-0 and 6 teams between 7-2 and 8-1

Could be a fun season.



Conference title games are strange now. It is as likely to be the best team against the 6th best team as it is to be best vs second best due to schedule imbalance.

But that was always the case kind of. In East vs west it was often the best team vs the 3-5th best team