Can Whalen win at Minnesota? IMHO, if she shows coaching and recruiting prowess early on, and with her history of winning at all levels she can. But,
the history of successful winning coaches indicates it takes time to build a program to championship level.
It starts with being able to recruit players like Paige Beuckers. Will she stay home? I'd be surprised.
But, not all great players decide to leave. If she does stay home, she may put the Gophers at a faster trajectory into a program with a shot at the Final Four or who knows. It's all about timing.
Connecticut and Notre Dame are two powerhouses with established coaches. It is hard to compete against them in recruiting. Tennessee was another program that reached greatness under Pat Summitt. It wasn't always like that for all these programs. It took some time.
Here are a snapshot of the three winning coaches:
Notre Dame:
Coach - Muffet McGraw, 1987 to present
Record - 886-270
National Championships 2 - 2001, 2018
Number of years coaching before first national championship: 14 years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notre_Dame_Fighting_Irish_women%27s_basketball
Connecticut:
Coach - Gino Auriemma 1985 to present
Record - 1119-297
National Championships 11 - 1995, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Number of years coaching before first national championship: 10 years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connecticut_Huskies_women's_basketball
Tennessee:
Coach - Pat Summitt 1974-2012
Record - 1098-208
National Championships 8 - 1987, 1989, 1991, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2007, 2008
Number of years coaching before first national championship: 13 years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Summitt
BUT,
other coaches have won a National Championship sooner albeit they have not reached the pantheon of greatness that McGraw, Auriemma, and Summitt have achieved.
Brenda Frese at Maryland won the National Championship in 2006,
four years after she left Minnesota. We can only speculate what could have happen had she stayed.
Brenda Frese leaving Minnesota was a big blow. It was tough to see the U letting her get away. I don't know the reason why she bolted. She is one of the coaches to watch.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brenda_Frese
Kim Mulkey at Baylor won her first National Championship in her fifth year in 2005. She won again in seven years later in 2012.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Mulkey
A more contemporary comparison to Whalen is
Dawn Staley. She coached at Temple 2000-2008. She was coaching while playing for the WNBA. She was with the Charlotte Sting between 1999-2005, and then with Houston Comets in 2006. She then went to coach South Carolina in 2008. It
took her
9 years at South Carolina to win her first National Championship in 2017.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawn_Staley#Coaching_career
Will Whalen be like Dawn Staley or Brenda Frese, or something else? Time will tell. All the resources and support are in place for her to pen her chapter and win at Minnesota. The future of Gopher Women's Basketball looks good. Whalen has to be lucky in recruiting great talent early to fast track the program.
It's all about recruiting to reach the pinnacle of success. You have to win consistently and make it far into the NCAA tournament to attract even better players.
NCAA Women's Basketball Championship History -
https://www.ncaa.com/history/basketball-women/d1