The Road to Selection Sunday: Field of 68 Projection -- Big Ten Likely to Get 6 Bids

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Heading into conference tournament play, it appears the Big Ten has four locks for the NCAA Tournament. ... Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin and Illinois. The main question to be answered Thursday through Sunday at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is, will Michigan, Michigan State and/or Penn State be able to join the NCAA party?

http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1358
 

At the beginning of the season most everyone on GH felt this would be the year we did not have to sweat out selection sunday. Looks like everyone was right.
 

Chicago Trib (Today) On B10 "Bubble" Teams

Outside of Ohio State, Purdue and Wisconsin, teams will need to make a solid -- or even spectacular -- run the Big Ten tournament. Shannon Ryan breaks down the bubble teams and whether they'll make the NCAA tournament. Sorry, Penn State fans.

As with the also-rans, the only way the Nittany Lions are in is if they win the title game.

Illinois (19-12, 9-9, RPI 43, SOS 15)

The Illini aren't impressing anyone with a 3-7 road record and no top-50 RPI wins since January, but they've done enough by simply not blowing opportunities against Iowa and Indiana at the end of the regular season. Three victories against top-50 RPI teams (North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan State) help their profile.

Prediction: IN

Michigan (19-12, 9-9, RPI 53, SOS 19)

The Wolverines have made late games matter. Michigan potentially swiped a spot that could have gone to other Big Ten bubble teams by finishing a sweep of Michigan State and beating Minnesota in a week span. Michigan's 5-5 road record will be noted favorably by the selection committee.

Prediction: IN

Michigan State (17-13, 9-9, RPI 46, SOS 9)

Not many teams can claim three victories over top-50 RPI opponents as the Spartans can. And teams that the selection committee will compare them to won't have gleaming records either. But an atrocious overall record is a dagger, and the Spartans probably will have to collect a few victories in Indy.

Prediction: Out.

Minnesota (17-13, 6-12, RPI 63, SOS 30)

Losing nine of 10 games -- with the lone victory coming at Iowa -- is what we call a nosedive. Unless the Gophers make a run to the conference tournament title game -- and that may not even matter -- it's NIT time for them. With Al Nolen in the lineup, Minnesota's story might have been different.
Prediction: Out.
 

Sparty vs. Penn State resume. ... eerily similar

Wonder why she takes the pot shot at Penn State? Penn State certainly deserves mention as a NCAA at-large possibility moreso than the Gophers. In fact, Penn State's resume is eerily similar to Michigan State's.

Similar RPIs (Sparty #48, Penn State #54), same (D-I) overall & conference records (16-13, 9-9), both have strong overall SOS rankings (Penn State #7, Sparty #9), both beat Wisconsin at home, both have 3 top-50 wins & both have 9 top-100 wins. Where I give MSU a slight edge is that one of its top-50 wins (Washington, in Maui) came away from home. All of Penn State's top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Illinois, MSU) were in Happy Valley.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Wonder why she takes the pot shot at Penn State? Penn State certainly deserves mention as a NCAA at-large possibility moreso than the Gophers. In fact, Penn State's resume is eerily similar to Michigan State's.

Similar RPIs (Sparty #48, Penn State #54), same (D-I) overall & conference records (16-13, 9-9), both have strong overall SOS rankings (Penn State #7, Sparty #9), both beat Wisconsin at home, both have 3 top-50 wins & both have 9 top-100 wins. Where I give MSU a slight edge is that one of its top-50 wins (Washington, in Maui) came away from home. All of Penn State's top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Illinois, MSU) were in Happy Valley.
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I dunno. I think B10 deserves 4 or 5 spots, tops. Illinois and/or Michigan = 4th and/or 5th.
 


4 or 5 is certainly a possiblity, especially if Michigan and MSU lose their tourney openers.

There will be plenty of undeserving teams getting bids this year. Any coach that complains about not getting in this year is utterly clueless.
 

My one non-Gopher wish for the week is that VT be on the First Four Out so we can be treated to Seth Greenberg whining about the injustice of it all once again.
 

That would be funny, Howeda. Won't be surprised at all if Greenberg's Hokies gag vs. Georgia Tech in the 1st round of the ACC tourney.

But in fairness, if Va Tech simply wins that game, I think they're likely to get in even with a loss to FSU in the quarterfinals.
 

SelectionSunday said:
That would be funny, Howeda. Won't be surprised at all if Greenberg's Hokies gag vs. Georgia Tech in the 1st round of the ACC tourney.

But in fairness, if Va Tech simply wins that game, I think they're likely to get in even with a loss to FSU in the quarterfinals.
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They don't deserve it. Duke takes a dive just to help them out and they proceed to get run out of thier own gym by a below-average BC team and follow that with yet another loss, nevermind losing twice to UVa. I think taking them over a team like Missouri State would be joke.
 



Missouri State

Missouri State will be an interesting case for the selection committee. Haven't really beaten anyone, but they were the regular-season champ of what is usually a pretty decent league (not so much this year). Tough call, though there are several other bubbling non-Big 6ers I'd take (if they don't win their conference tourney) before Missouri State, most notably tonight's Gonzaga/St. Mary's loser, Richmond, Butler and VCU.
 

MSU probably has a good chance to make it because of izzo not because they deserve it. I hope PSU makes it to save their coaches job and because they will really be bad next year. I hope michigan doesn't make it simply because they are michigan.
 

Penn State's the team I'm adopting in Indianapolis after the Gophers get eliminated (either Thursday or Friday). I'd like to see Battle and Brooks get a chance to play in the NCAA. It will be especially easy to root for them if they play Bucky in the quarterfinals.
 

SS,

Was there a winner in any of the conference tournaments last night that would be considered bid stealers?
 



No.

If VCU beat ODU it likely would have been a bid-stealer. However, I still think VCU has a chance to be an at-large to become the 3rd team (also George Mason) from the Colonial.

In the WCC, Gonzaga and St. Mary's likely will both get in, but for the bubble teams it was probably better that Gonzaga won because they have a better resume than St. Mary's.

The game to monitor tonight is Butler-Milwaukee. Bubble teams need Butler to win. Technically, a Butler win tonight adds an at-large spot back to the field, as the only way #1 seed Milwaukee (currently slotted into the field) is getting into the tournament is as an automatic qualifier. Butler has a good shot at being an at-large if it loses.

For what it's worth, Milwaukee swept the season series with Butler. But then again, College of Charleston swept the season series vs. Wofford and we all saw how that worked out last night.
 

Right now it appears there will be 7 Big Ten teams making the tourney, including PSU and MSU (contrary to the predictions of the Chicago Tribune). The Big Ten tourney has (for the most part) played out to maximize the bids that the Big Ten gets, so what appeared to be 4 or 5 making it a week ago is now looking more like 7. Hey, each team that makes the NCAA tourney is worth $222K to the Big Ten (revenue that is split evenly among the schools), and every round a team advances is worth another $222K, so how the conference tourney has played out has been helpful to the conference in general.

The other factor that has helped the Big Ten is there have been very few "bid stealers" this year - honestly, I can't think of a single conference title game that's truly been a bid stealer (i.e., a team that's a lock for an at-large losing to a team that requires an auto-bid to make it). Maybe the A-10, getting Richmond/Dayton in counts as a bid stealer, but even with that factored in, it looks like the B1G will get 7 teams in the tourney. I think a significant part of why the bubble is being perceived as especially weak is because there haven't been the typical number of bid "stealing" conference tourney champs to shrink the number of at-large spots for bubble teams.
 

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