The rest of the schedule: WOW

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brucekaupa

brucekaupa

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Just looking at the schedule for the rest of the year. Here are my thoughts.

Yes, we're 3-3. But, the 3 losses were to:
- #1 Ohio State, on the road
- #17 Michigan State, on the road
- #18 Wisconsin, on the road

The rest of the schedule features:
- 1 road game against a ranked team: #14 Purdue
- 3 home games against ranked teams: #1 Ohio State, #17 Michigan State and #23 Illinois
- We skip playing at #23 Illinois and hosting #18 Wisconsin (who made THAT decision?!?)

I'm feeling really good about the last 7 games of the regular season, which are: host #23 Illinois, @ Iowa, @ Penn State, host #17 Michigan State, host Michigan, @ Northwestern and host Penn State. I can realistically (taking realistic reality into account) see the Gopher winning all of those games.

Which leaves us with the next 5 games:
- @ Michigan
- Host Northwestern
- @ Purdue
- @ Indiana
- Host OSU

So, my prediction for how the season will play out from here:
- We'll lose 3 of our next 5, putting our record at 16-7 (5-6) Panic will set in. People will call for Tubby's head, even though we'll still be in the top 25.
- We'll then run the table, finishing the regular season at 23-7 (13-7), good enough for 4th in the Big Ten.

And if we manage to do better than 2-3 over the next five....ooo.

Big Ten championship is out of the question. Ohio State will not be stopped.
 

Don't think Ohio State is a lock for the big ten title yet. They will be in the top 3, but they are like us in a way where they have trouble finishing teams off. See Iowa and Michigan. I can't wait to play them here!!
 

brucekaupa said:
Just looking at the schedule for the rest of the year. Here are my thoughts.

Yes, we're 3-3. But, the 3 losses were to:
- #1 Ohio State, on the road
- #17 Michigan State, on the road
- #18 Wisconsin, on the road

The rest of the schedule features:
- 1 road game against a ranked team: #14 Purdue
- 3 home games against ranked teams: #1 Ohio State, #17 Michigan State and #23 Illinois
- We skip playing at #23 Illinois and hosting #18 Wisconsin (who made THAT decision?!?)

I'm feeling really good about the last 7 games of the regular season, which are: host #23 Illinois, @ Iowa, @ Penn State, host #17 Michigan State, host Michigan, @ Northwestern and host Penn State. I can realistically (taking realistic reality into account) see the Gopher winning all of those games.

Which leaves us with the next 5 games:
- @ Michigan
- Host Northwestern
- @ Purdue
- @ Indiana
- Host OSU

So, my prediction for how the season will play out from here:
- We'll lose 3 of our next 5, putting our record at 16-7 (5-6) Panic will set in. People will call for Tubby's head, even though we'll still be in the top 25.
- We'll then run the table, finishing the regular season at 23-7 (13-7), good enough for 4th in the Big Ten.

And if we manage to do better than 2-3 over the next five....ooo.

Big Ten championship is out of the question. Ohio State will not be stopped.
Click to expand...

I see us going 2-3 over the next 5 and then 5-2 over the last 7. This team is still inconsistent. Gives us a 10-8 Big Ten record.
 

If I had to guess right now I'd say we finish 21-9 (10-8), probably 22-10 after the BTT. Road games are difficult in the Big Ten and we'll drop a couple in addition to the tough one at Purdue. Best case scenario I think is 23-7 (12-6). That would be a pretty special season.
 

I see us running the table the rest of the season, to finish 26-4 (15-3), good for 1st in the Big Ten. :D

Really, I'd like them to keep it in single digit losses prior to the BTT, which would mean at least a 10-8 BT record, which I think is easily doable. Go into the BTT with a 21-9 record at least, and we'd be in good shape I think. As I've said before, I really want this team to at least get the bye in the BTT, might take a few extra wins to do that. Right now we're sitting 6th, so we gotta leapfrog one of OSU, Purdue, MSU, Wisconsin, and Illinois.
 


tO$U is a good ballclub but they have only played one of the upper tier teams thus far (Gophers). They struggled to win at Iowa and at Michigan and almost lost at home to PSU. They have yet to play one of the better teams on the road. They will ose their fair share yet.
 

11 BT wins is the magic number for the Gophers to get to the NCAA tourney IMO. 11 puts us in good shape considering the quality wins we already have, but I don't see how 11-7 and at minimum 22 wins overall in a 68-team field doesn't get us in.

IMO if we can win these four games below it puts us in great shape. Can't afford to slip up in any of these games:
vs. NW
@ Iowa
vs. Mich
vs. PSU

This means we would also need to win 4 additional BT games from the following. If we can just win 2 of the road games (an NCAA team should be able to do this) I think we can win 2 of the 3 home games.
@Mich
@NW
@Ind
@PSU
@Pur
vs. Ill
vs. MSU
vs. OSU
 

If we can get by Michigan Saturday I think the sky is the limit for the Gophers.
 




brucekaupa said:
- We skip playing at #23 Illinois and hosting #18 Wisconsin (who made THAT decision?!?)
Click to expand...

Just part of the normal schedule rotation. There are always 2 teams that you play one time because of the 18 game conference schedule. Starting next season it will be 3 teams.
 

I agree with BLIZZARD. Can we win on the road - Michigan can either propel us or if we lose - we will wonder if they can win any road game.
 

11 BT wins is not the threshhold for getting in, but it is the threshhold for getting in comfortably and having a #7 seed or higher, which gives us a good shot to win at least 1 game. The minimum to get in is probably 9-9, 20-10, but that could be play-in game territory.

11-7 has been my goal from the beginning and I think it is probably what will happen. Anything more then that is gravy. I certainly see us losing at least 2 of @Michigan, @NW @ Indiana and @PSU and probably at least 1 of MSU, Ill, OSU at home.
 

josh087 said:
11 BT wins is the magic number for the Gophers to get to the NCAA tourney IMO.
Click to expand...

Depending one what other quality wins the team can rack up, I actually think this:

9-9 Big Ten record: 20-10 overall and on the NCAA bubble (probably in as a #11 or #12 seed, one of the last in); a BTT win or two would help us feel better

10-8 Big Ten record: 21-9 overall almost certainly in NCAA (probably as a #8 or #9); a BTT win or two would cinch the NCAA bid and help in seeding

11-7 Big Ten record: 22-8 overall and NCAA lock city (probably a #7); BTT would be for NCAA seeding and pride

12-6 Big Ten record: 23-7 overall (#5 or #6 seed) and now getting serious about positioning to make a run to the 2nd weekend of NCAA tourney

13-5 Big Ten record: 24-6 overall and we're looking at a #3 or #4 NCAA seed and possibly doing some damage in NCAA tourney

14-4 Big Ten record: 25-5 overall and would likely make us a Big Ten co-champ with someone and get us a #3 NCAA seed (better if we do well at BTT)

My personal guess is we'll be 11-7 and playing for NCAA seeding at the BTT.
 



tjgopher said:
Depending one what other quality wins the team can rack up, I actually think this:

9-9 Big Ten record: 20-10 overall and on the NCAA bubble (probably in as a #11 or #12 seed, one of the last in); a BTT win or two would help us feel better

10-8 Big Ten record: 21-9 overall almost certainly in NCAA (probably as a #8 or #9); a BTT win or two would cinch the NCAA bid and help in seeding

11-7 Big Ten record: 22-8 overall and NCAA lock city (probably a #7); BTT would be for NCAA seeding and pride

12-6 Big Ten record: 23-7 overall (#5 or #6 seed) and now getting serious about positioning to make a run to the 2nd weekend of NCAA tourney

13-5 Big Ten record: 24-6 overall and we're looking at a #3 or #4 NCAA seed and possibly doing some damage in NCAA tourney

14-4 Big Ten record: 25-5 overall and would likely make us a Big Ten co-champ with someone and get us a #3 NCAA seed (better if we do well at BTT)

My personal guess is we'll be 11-7 and playing for NCAA seeding at the BTT.
Click to expand...

Seems about right. I think we all agree that 11-7 puts us in lock status, which was my original point. 10-8 should be good enough, but 11-7 is that magic number that leaves no doubt.
 

At this point and with the resume the Gophers have compiled so far, I feel very comfortable saying 10-8 will make them a lock, no matter what happens in Indianapolis. One thing about this year that's a little different than in recent years is that it appears we have a weak crop of at-large candidates outside of the Power 6. That's going to benefit the major conferences.
 

Guessing (At This Point)

Gophers are 14-4 and 3-3 in B10.

6 home games, 6 road games left.

W 5 of 6 at home and 3 of 6 away.

That would be 22-8 overall and 11-7 in B10.
 

I hope we go 1-0 this week. The team can worry about the rest later.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
Gophers are 14-4 and 3-3 in B10.

6 home games, 6 road games left.

W 5 of 6 at home and 3 of 6 away.

That would be 22-8 overall and 11-7 in B10.
Click to expand...

That's what I was thinking will happen. Add a win in the big 10 tourney and we should be looking at a decent seeding situation.

Even if we go 10-8, I think a big 10 tourney win will get us in no problem.
 

Josh, I tend to agree with you for the most part (except when you occasionally go off on me and when you talked Ok State up the other day), but what are you talking about? I hope you mean 11 wins including the BTT. There's absolutely no way we need 11 conference wins to make the tournament.

josh087 said:
11 BT wins is the magic number for the Gophers to get to the NCAA tourney IMO. 11 puts us in good shape considering the quality wins we already have, but I don't see how 11-7 and at minimum 22 wins overall in a 68-team field doesn't get us in.

IMO if we can win these four games below it puts us in great shape. Can't afford to slip up in any of these games:
vs. NW
@ Iowa
vs. Mich
vs. PSU

This means we would also need to win 4 additional BT games from the following. If we can just win 2 of the road games (an NCAA team should be able to do this) I think we can win 2 of the 3 home games.
@Mich
@NW
@Ind
@PSU
@Pur
vs. Ill
vs. MSU
vs. OSU
Click to expand...
 

10-8 would be a lock.

josh087 said:
Seems about right. I think we all agree that 11-7 puts us in lock status, which was my original point. 10-8 should be good enough, but 11-7 is that magic number that leaves no doubt.
Click to expand...
 

Which leaves us with the next 5 games:
- @ Michigan
- Host Northwestern
- @ Purdue
- @ Indiana
- Host OSU


A key stretch;
@ Michigan: Lost to them twice last year. By 8 at home and by 28 at Mich.
Host Northwestern and Indiana: these are road games we need to win if we are indeed an upper tier team.
Purdue and OSU: Anything can happen.
We need to beat the teams we are supposed to be better than.
 

11-7 in conference would be a mortal lock.

10-8 in conference is a lock

9-9 in conference and we make it in with a very low seed. There's just no one out there that would threaten us with a bid right now. The field is very weak. Also, the tourney field is expanding. I think we'd have to have an epic meltdown to not make the tourney.
 

I could see Purdue winning the Big Ten this year.
 


A loss at Michigan would be atrocious.

Look, I know that it is tough to play anywhere on the road in the bigten, but we will not and can not lose to Michigan this week. Last years the Michigan losses can be attributed to Sims plain and simple. We had no one that could match up with him. Harris wasn't bad either (understatement). I know that they have played a number of good teams close, but they have looked pretty pathetic in big ten play. This would be a bad one if we don't put up a W.
 

Madman said:
I know that they have played a number of good teams close, but they have looked pretty pathetic in big ten play. This would be a bad one if we don't put up a W.
Click to expand...
They just took undefeated #3 Kansas to OT a week or so ago? They didn't look pathetic then?
 

Showin, you're right! The team I watched last night crap the bed against Northwestern didn't resemble a team that could hang with Kansas. I guess you don't know what you're going to get. I'm with a lot of people in saying that we gotta have Williams in Novak's jock so he doesn't go off behind the arc. Otherwise, I really think we're going to see some gopher domination in the paint.
 

No excuses whatsover to lose to Michigan on Saturday. They played OSU and Kansas tough because they were top 5 teams playing on national TV and got their best shot. They go on the road and get blown out by Indiana and Northwestern. Not that difficult to figure out. They will not get up to play the Gophers like they did for OSU an KU. I would expect a 10-15 point win easy....
 

I'm with you whole heartedly Vandelay. Like I said, I think we can really crush them with some solid interior play. I fully expect Mbakwe to have a big game as I haven't seen Michigan with anyone that can hang with him... not that really anyone can. By the way... Is it a crazy thought that Mbakwe might be a lottery pick next year? He has some glaring holes in his game, but I'm not even joking.... I can see it. Lottery pick or not... I think we should savor every minute of Mbakwe this year because he's a goner after this year in my opinion.
 

I don't expect any road game in the Big Ten to be easy. I would be shocked if we win on the road by 15+ points at any point this season. Just the nature of the "road beast" that is the Big Ten conference.

Last year we won 3 Big Ten roadies, by an average of 5pts per. The year before, 3 Big Ten road wins by an average of around 4pts per. Going out and expecting us to get our biggest road win in 3 years - easily - may be a bit of a stretch.

That said, I expect us to win. But I expect it to be somewhat ugly.
 

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