will be next year. Shortell vrs Nelson. There is no way that Shortell replaces Gray this year unless Gray keeps turning the ball over or doesn't heal very well. Nest year could be interesting however. I know most people seem to think Nelson will start but I would put my money on Shortell. Max is the best passer on the team, will have game experience, can see the field pretty well for a sophomore and will only get better after the season and 60 more practices in the off season. Also Max runs a lot better than most people think,. You won't see him run this Friday because they don't want to take a chance of him being injured but he runs well enough for this offence.
The REAL Quarterback Controversy
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Gopher07
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I would be very, very surprised if most people think Nelson will start. I think most sane people think Max should be the opening day starter next year because he's gone out and proved himself in game situations and he will have been in the program for 2 years at that point (versus one year for Nelson).
I think, in an ideal world, you see this:
Shortell 2013-2014
Nelson or Leidner 2015-2016
Next man up 2017-2018
Juniors and seniors only, unless we get a coup and pick up some insanely high rated QB.
But for now I'm simply enjoying the ride that is 2012. 2013 is waaayyyy far away.
I think, in an ideal world, you see this:
Shortell 2013-2014
Nelson or Leidner 2015-2016
Next man up 2017-2018
Juniors and seniors only, unless we get a coup and pick up some insanely high rated QB.
But for now I'm simply enjoying the ride that is 2012. 2013 is waaayyyy far away.
Not so fast. I expect Shortell to continue playing well and challenge a healthy Gray for the starting job once Gray is ready. Gray's improvement from last year was vastly overstated by the coaching staff imo, and Shortell just might be a flat out better QB. Our passing game is miles better with Shortell than Gray, and I think our run game is just as good if not better with Shortell as well.
Bob_Loblaw
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I think there could be a debate when Gray comes back. I think our running game is better with Gray because I am not so sure that we can lineup with 1 TE and 1 FB and run the ball like we did against Syracuse. If we can do that against quality opponents, I think Shortell will probably be the guy. However, my feeling is that our running game will need Gray in the Big 10.
That said, Max is playing great. If he continues playing great, it will be really hard to put him back on the bench. I don't think that means that Gray won't see the field, as Kill has always used a running QB in a super-wildcat mode when he was at Northern Illinois. But there could certainly be a QB debate in a couple weeks, if Max continues being effective.
All that said, it's really hard to say if the staff vastly overstated Gray's improvement. Gray struggled for most of the UNLV game, was fantastic against UNH and was hit and miss against Western Michigan. It's hard to say that he was playing bad when he went out. When he got injured, Gray had a 59% completion percentage, 5 TD to 1 INT, 168 passer rating. In contrast, last year, Gray had a 50% completion percentage 1 to 1 TD to INT, and a 114.5 passer rating. Statistically, albeit against poor competition, he was much better this season than last season. So it's kind of hard to gauge exactly where Gray was in terms of development.
station19
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As we all know Gray is the better runner and Max is the better passer.
What's not talked about here, and probably no one here knows is:
Which one makes the best decisions pre-snap(audibles), and and post snap(reads)......that's what makes a real qb.
Fire away.
What's not talked about here, and probably no one here knows is:
Which one makes the best decisions pre-snap(audibles), and and post snap(reads)......that's what makes a real qb.
Fire away.
mnsportsgeek
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We are 4-0 for the first time in 5 years and we have a quarterback controversy. That's messed up.
"Gray, you haven't lost this year but we're sitting you down. That 1 interception you've thrown all year is really killing this team's potential."
You guys are pathetic.
"Gray, you haven't lost this year but we're sitting you down. That 1 interception you've thrown all year is really killing this team's potential."
You guys are pathetic.
Stan The Caddy
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Bob-
I am confused. You say Max is playing great and Gray struggled against UNLV. Hmmmm? Max was 16-30 against Syracuse and Gray was 17-30 against UNLV. It is interesting to see how those similar performances are viewed differently. Max played well for a quarter and half against WMU and for a quarter against Syracuse, that is it.
Gray is the QB and should be the QB. I for one think Nelson will WIN the job next year.
On a side note, I have not seen this posted anywhere on GopherHole, but I was not able to attend on Saturday and watched from home. The BTN sideline guy interviewed Max's dad and mentioned how his son had experience playing as a true freshman. Max's dad shot bak and said he believed ALL freshman should be redshirted and especially at the QB position. It was interesting, you could see he was not thrilled that Max played last year.
WhoFellDownTheGopherHole?
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The problem is that it's no longer just 'fun to speculate'. It has now become a legitimate question and it is going to have to be answered, probably within the next two weeks.
popeyoung5
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If Max plays really well the next two games and You are facing the Badgers who are weakest in pass defense? Great problem to have.
Gray 2011: 50.7 completion percentage, 8 TDs, 8 Int, 4.9 yards per carry
Gray 2012: 59.1 completion percentage, 5 TDs, 1 Int, 5.2 yards per carry
Yep, vastly
Ogee Ogilthorpe
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Ummm... Both quarterbacks have led the team to two wins with no losses, and one of them did it against what most would consider better competition. It's that much of a stretch that people are at least THINKING about it? OH, the injustice of it all!!!!!!
Holy crap. You're not seriously comparing the stats of the games against UNLV and UNH to the stats from last year, are you? That's impressive, I have to admit.
Ogee Ogilthorpe
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There's another way to look at it as well.
For a Quarterback, at the end of the day, isn't it about PRODUCTION?
I haven't done the math but I'd be curious to see a comparison of the two QB's in two areas:
Yards Gained from Scrimmage per Possession/Series
Points per Possession/Series
Isn't that really the nuts and bolts of it? Passing the ball or running the ball, which QB moves the team down the field, flips the field in terms of field position for the defense, and either scores or gets the team in position to score?
I see things very much the same as Stan. Gray is our QB for sure when healthy. I too, was surprised at how annoyed dad was that Max played last year. (not too bright on camera) I also think Nelson will overtake Max next year...if, Max is here. If Max plays well at Iowa and Gray starts vs NW...dad, who already has got issues, is going to be livid. It's a long season.
Bob_Loblaw
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I just thought Shortell played better against Syracuse than Gray played against UNLV.
#1: Gray had a key interception, Max did not.
#2: Max had some problems with accuracy for a stretch against Syracuse, but I thought he was good for 3/4's of the game. I can't think of any wide open TD passes that Gray missed against UNLV.
#3: I think Syracuse has a better pass defense than UNLV.
For those reasons, I thought Shortell played better against Syracuse than Gray played against UNLV. I'm not anti-Gray, I was on here defending his play after that game. I don't think he played that well and I think he probably gives us the best chance to win. I just think that if Shortell plays well and we continue winning, it is silly to dismiss him as a starter.
Bob_Loblaw
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This is from ESPN, using their drive summaries.
With Gray:
32 drives for 886 yards and 74 points.
27.7 yards per drive
2.31 points per drive
With Shortell:
22 drives for 738 yards and 45 points.
33.5 yards per drive
2.0 points per drive.
All in all, it's pretty close. You can obviously try to advocate reasons why someone's numbers appear better or worse than reality. However, all in all, they are pretty similar.
Gray 2011 non-conference: 51.0 completion percentage, 3 TDs, 3 Int, 4.9 yards per carry, 1 rushing TD (1-3 record)
Gray 2012 non-conference: 59.1 completion percentage, 5 TDs, 1 Int, 5.2 yards per carry, 2 rushing TDs (2-0 record)
Yep, vastly
Oh wait, you're probably going to whine about including USC.
Gray 2011 non-conference without USC: 49.2 completion percentage, 3 TDs, 2 Int, 5.5 yards per carry, 1 rushing TD (1-2 record)
Gray 2012: 59.1 completion percentage, 5 TDs, 1 Int, 5.2 yards per carry, 2 rushing TDs (2-0 record)
Yep, vastly
The real problem is that some people think it is going to be answered here. As far as I know coach Kill still doesn't come to this site for football advice.
MNVCGUY
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The real problem is that some people think it is going to be answered here. As far as I know coach Kill still doesn't come to this site for football advice.
Wait just a damn minute...I have a source in the athletic department that says Coach Kill bases all of his decisions on what is said on this board.
Ogee Ogilthorpe
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I took a look at it after my post last night as well. The points numbers aren't exactly what I came up with but I'm guessing you included the three OT numbers in Gray's average. Yes, they scored, but it's hard to objectively credit 17 points on three drives when given the ball on the 25 for each of them.
I also wondered about what to do with missed FG's. Not either QB's fault that the kicker missed FG's on their "scoring drives". Wouldn't have affected the data much as I think Wettstein missed a few on both QB's efforts.
I came up with about 2 pts/possession for Gray and 2.5 for Shortell, but as i said, I only included the regulation scores where they may have actually had to drive more than 0 yards to come up with points. Another factor that could have been included was 3-and-outs.
After posting I realized it was kind of an exercise in futility no matter how you do it for the games so far. Pretty hard to compare efforts against the defenses of UNLV, UNH, WMU, and Syracuse. Not exactly an apples to apples comparison.
Bob_Loblaw
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Again...you asked for the numbers, you got the numbers and didn't like them and then you ragged on the comparison. It was YOUR comparison. I think we both know you would have thought it was a bit more apples-to-apples
The FG Issue: Wettstein missed 3 FGs for Gray drives and 2 for Wettstein drives . . .so, no impact (Gray's drives were about 3:2 to Shortell's).
The UNLV OT Issue: You really wish that wouldn't have happened. It's weird. The fact remains, we won that game 30-27. It did change the numbers for Gray. However, it was part of the game. You can't ignore because you simply don't like it. Rabe has 2 of his TDs that game, we scored 30 points. . .there is no way around it. I think we all still count all of Wells' INTs right? As far as it throwing off your averages, yeah, but it's part of the game. Other things can throw off the averages as well, like Shortell given the ball at the 30 after the INT last week or Gray getting it at the 8 after Carter's INT against Western Michigan. Cherry picking what you don't like about stats because it didn't fit your argument is silly. You not counting Gray's points is like me saying "Well, Shortell's TD against UNH was against backups and the game was already over, I decided to ignore the official statistics and not reward him with those points". It sounds absolutely absurd. I could make silly arguments like: Gray played on the road in the first game of the year. We have been told how much the crowd helped the Gophers against Syracuse, well, Gray didn't get that at UNLV. You could also say that we dominated UNH so badly that we didn't run our entire offense and Gray was punished for Gillum's fumble. But again, that's silly.
It is an exercise in futility because it didn't come out to support your argument. You want so badly for the data to show that Max and our entire offense has been way better than our offense with Gray. Right now, the data just doesn't.
Bob_Loblaw
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As far as 3 and outs:
Gray 6 - Shortell 4
So again, that fits in perfectly to the 3:2 ratio of Gray drives to Shortell drives.
Gray 6 - Shortell 4
So again, that fits in perfectly to the 3:2 ratio of Gray drives to Shortell drives.
OP: "The REAL Quarterback Controversy"
Is a made up argument for people who know nothing, about nothing, and is good fodder for the message board.
No matter what is said here, none of us are at practice everyday, with the team members 24/7, with personal biased opinions, and means nothing.
Think of Shakespeare:
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing. — Macbeth (Act 5, Scene 5, lines 17-28)
Is a made up argument for people who know nothing, about nothing, and is good fodder for the message board.
No matter what is said here, none of us are at practice everyday, with the team members 24/7, with personal biased opinions, and means nothing.
Think of Shakespeare:
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing. — Macbeth (Act 5, Scene 5, lines 17-28)
Lakeville Goldy
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If Shortell has the same game he had against Syracuse this weekend, I think there is no question that Gray starts when healthy (hopefully NW)
If Shortell lights up Iowa, I don't know if it's automatic that Gray is named starter when he comes back. You don't like to see people lose jobs over injury, but they don't hold positions anymore. It at least gives them an opportunity to not rush Gray back.
And consider if Gray isn't ready for NW and Shortell lights them up, too. Every game Gray is out will give Shortell that much more chance to hold on to the starting role (or lose it). And I hope Shortell does so well that he makes it virtually impossible for Gray to start. Nothing against Gray - I was hoping Gray did so well there would be no talk of Shortell, but it would mean the team is doing extremely well, which is what we all want.
If Shortell lights up Iowa, I don't know if it's automatic that Gray is named starter when he comes back. You don't like to see people lose jobs over injury, but they don't hold positions anymore. It at least gives them an opportunity to not rush Gray back.
And consider if Gray isn't ready for NW and Shortell lights them up, too. Every game Gray is out will give Shortell that much more chance to hold on to the starting role (or lose it). And I hope Shortell does so well that he makes it virtually impossible for Gray to start. Nothing against Gray - I was hoping Gray did so well there would be no talk of Shortell, but it would mean the team is doing extremely well, which is what we all want.