The next great Fleck team

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Schnauzer

Schnauzer

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I think a lot about the 2018 season. The Gophers were coming off a shaky 2017 as Fleck's year 0 and had faded, followed by some rough outings in 2018 where I said to myself it might be time to admit Fleck isn't going to work out. But, Along came an upset of Purdue on a very cold semi-snowy day and an overall turn around that ended with a huge win over Wisconsin and another upset over Georgia Tech in a bowl game. Suddenly things looked up. It was pretty clear Tyler Johnson was a star, the running back position was stacked, and the new QB Morgan was hitting receivers by the end of the season. I distinctly remember being optimistic for 2019 and when all the prognostications came out with their typical "We'll just slot the Gophers in at the bottom/mid area of our predictions, like always" - I kept thinking, "just you wait and see" and I was actually right as 2019 was a historic year.

I've waited for that level of optimism since and I feel like things have settled into an off season ritual of thinking the Gophers will be okay next year but not great. I guess I had a lot of optimism for 2020 but that ended up being the goofy covid season. I'm in that same mode again, thinking 7-5ish with potential for a bit better if everything goes right or also possibilities of .500 if injuries and bad surprises spring up.

Anyone see a 2018 style awakening on the horizon?

I guess a couple recent seasons could have rivaled 2019 had some weird losses like Purdue, Northwestern, and Bowling Green had been avoided and 2019 itself had some magic in the other direction with the string of tight wins to start that season that would have made it look different if there would have been losses in place of wins over Fresno State, Georgia Southern, etc.
 


Schnauzer said:
I think a lot about the 2018 season. The Gophers were coming off a shaky 2017 as Fleck's year 0 and had faded, followed by some rough outings in 2018 where I said to myself it might be time to admit Fleck isn't going to work out. But, Along came an upset of Purdue on a very cold semi-snowy day and an overall turn around that ended with a huge win over Wisconsin and another upset over Georgia Tech in a bowl game. Suddenly things looked up. It was pretty clear Tyler Johnson was a star, the running back position was stacked, and the new QB Morgan was hitting receivers by the end of the season. I distinctly remember being optimistic for 2019 and when all the prognostications came out with their typical "We'll just slot the Gophers in at the bottom/mid area of our predictions, like always" - I kept thinking, "just you wait and see" and I was actually right as 2019 was a historic year.

I've waited for that level of optimism since and I feel like things have settled into an off season ritual of thinking the Gophers will be okay next year but not great. I guess I had a lot of optimism for 2020 but that ended up being the goofy covid season. I'm in that same mode again, thinking 7-5ish with potential for a bit better if everything goes right or also possibilities of .500 if injuries and bad surprises spring up.

Anyone see a 2018 style awakening on the horizon?

I guess a couple recent seasons could have rivaled 2019 had some weird losses like Purdue, Northwestern, and Bowling Green had been avoided and 2019 itself had some magic in the other direction with the string of tight wins to start that season that would have made it look different if there would have been losses in place of wins over Fresno State, Georgia Southern, etc.
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I sure hope you're right. Like most fan bases, we all tend to overrate our team in the off-season. Some report will come out of spring ball that a transfer is blowing up, offense looks as good as ever, rinse and repeat. And I'll buy in because I'd rather be an optimist and be wrong than a pessimist and be right.

Huge to have most of our big pieces back from last year and we did seem to have a good portal haul.

The program needs a legit breakthrough season again. We need to beat Iowa. It's time (for both).

Go Gophers!!
 


mngg11 said:
I see it every year, man. Hope springs eternal. We're one or two impact players clicking away from another big run. Just need the pieces to fall into place.
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Right there with you as I am always optimistic things will break right for the program.

Exciting thing about 2026 is we kept the majority of our key pieces, added some nice potential and most importantly Drake looked like he could be be the real deal last year in his first season starting.

If Drake has a big off season and DT can find a way to stay healthy the offense has potential to take a big step up and the D looks solid as well.
 


Honestly if the run game comes back while we have competent QB play, it could be any season.

I think the gophers have competent QB play. But we have not run the ball consistently since 2022
 

BleedGopher said:
I sure hope you're right. Like most fan bases, we all tend to overrate our team in the off-season. Some report will come out of spring ball that a transfer is blowing up, offense looks as good as ever, rinse and repeat. And I'll buy in because I'd rather be an optimist and be wrong than a pessimist and be right.

Huge to have most of our big pieces back from last year and we did seem to have a good portal haul.

The program needs a legit breakthrough season again. We need to beat Iowa. It's time (for both).

Go Gophers!!
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Agree most fans do.

Until the Gopher talent level rises they will continue to be a middle of the pack team. PJ has outperformed the relative talent level most of the years he has been here. Unless a big donor come forward and they find a ton of money I would bet they continue on being an 7 or 8 win team and around .500 in the B10, and with the resources the team has I think that is pretty good.

I am hopeful the defense will be good and Taylor stays healthy. If those two things happen I think a 9 win season is possible. I do not have much faith in the WR's or the run blocking, but anything can happen.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
Agree most fans do.

Until the Gopher talent level rises they will continue to be a middle of the pack team. PJ has outperformed the relative talent level most of the years he has been here. Unless a big donor come forward and they find a ton of money I would bet they continue on being an 7 or 8 win team and around .500 in the B10, and with the resources the team has I think that is pretty good.

I am hopeful the defense will be good and Taylor stays healthy. If those two things happen I think a 9 win season is possible. I do not have much faith in the WR's or the run blocking, but anything can happen.
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It wasn't all that many years ago we would have killed for that.
 

Schnauzer said:
I think a lot about the 2018 season. The Gophers were coming off a shaky 2017 as Fleck's year 0 and had faded, followed by some rough outings in 2018 where I said to myself it might be time to admit Fleck isn't going to work out. But, Along came an upset of Purdue on a very cold semi-snowy day and an overall turn around that ended with a huge win over Wisconsin and another upset over Georgia Tech in a bowl game. Suddenly things looked up. It was pretty clear Tyler Johnson was a star, the running back position was stacked, and the new QB Morgan was hitting receivers by the end of the season. I distinctly remember being optimistic for 2019 and when all the prognostications came out with their typical "We'll just slot the Gophers in at the bottom/mid area of our predictions, like always" - I kept thinking, "just you wait and see" and I was actually right as 2019 was a historic year.

I've waited for that level of optimism since and I feel like things have settled into an off season ritual of thinking the Gophers will be okay next year but not great. I guess I had a lot of optimism for 2020 but that ended up being the goofy covid season. I'm in that same mode again, thinking 7-5ish with potential for a bit better if everything goes right or also possibilities of .500 if injuries and bad surprises spring up.

Anyone see a 2018 style awakening on the horizon?

I guess a couple recent seasons could have rivaled 2019 had some weird losses like Purdue, Northwestern, and Bowling Green had been avoided and 2019 itself had some magic in the other direction with the string of tight wins to start that season that would have made it look different if there would have been losses in place of wins over Fresno State, Georgia Southern, etc.
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Weird losses happen to every team from time to time. When you string them together, it becomes a trend.

The best thing you can say about last year was we found a way to not lose the games against Michigan State and Purdue.

We'll be fighting to be at the bottom of the top or the top of the bottom again in 2026.

Our schedule does not appear to include 5 teams in the bottom of the B1G in 2026, which will not help the battle.
 



I think it's going to come down to the depth. That was really what made the difference in 2019, having a roster with so much beyond just a few star players.

The running back room had Ibrahim, Smith and Brooks for a great group. The receiver corp. had Bateman and a healthy Autman-Bell on top of Tyler Johnson. It wasn't just Winfield as a defensive back, we had Chris Williamson, Benjamin St-Juste, plus Jordan Howden and Terell Smith were there.

That level of talent across the board there made 11 wins possible. Building that type of roster depth is imperative for another great run like that, or even just 10 wins and a larger bowl game. Hopefully the transfer portal can help add enough pieces to the puzzle.
 



The fact is that PJ is winning 8 games after we all know we're leaving 2-3 wins on the field. As all of you guys know, the question is how to we bridge that gap and not let those 2-3 wins slip away? I think last year was the most disappointing because aside of Oregon and OSU it was a very favorable schedule to go 10-2.

2026 is fascinating for many reasons. It's so cliche to say but as others have pointed out I think it really does come down to if we can get consistent push in the run game. Everything else will fall into place.
 



I'll also note there was a change at Defensive Coordinator half-way through the 2018 season. The schemes became simpler and the game slowed down for the D.
 



BilldGopher said:
I'll also note there was a change at Defensive Coordinator half-way through the 2018 season. The schemes became simpler and the game slowed down for the D.
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The secret sauce (to any endeavor) is putting the right guys in the right position to succeed. Simple, yet not. Michelangelo could make a masterpiece from sweat and blood. Bob, maybe not. Then there is the experience factor.

Climbers, canyoneer, adventurers, flyers creed

"Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from surviving bad judgment."
 

I agree with OP that I also felt that the way 2018 season ended it was shaping up to be a better than expected 2019. However, I'm not sure I have that exact feeling for the 2026 season. Don't get me wrong, I think the Gophers have a chance to be good but it's more 'hopeful' in regards to transfer portal and assuming Lindsey progresses than evidence we've seen on the field.

I wish we could have been competitive in our losses to Ohio State, Iowa and Oregon. But we weren't and thus I'm just not seeing any hard evidence at this time that we're due for a 2019 type season.
 

I think 2026 can be a special season. Expectations nationally are going to be low. I've already seen a 5-7 (2-7) prediction for the team.

However, we return a number of key positions, added some portal help, and brought in a huge freshmen class.

If they can find any running game this will be a completely differ team.
 

GophEnEspaña said:
The fact is that PJ is winning 8 games after we all know we're leaving 2-3 wins on the field. As all of you guys know, the question is how to we bridge that gap and not let those 2-3 wins slip away? I think last year was the most disappointing because aside of Oregon and OSU it was a very favorable schedule to go 10-2.

2026 is fascinating for many reasons. It's so cliche to say but as others have pointed out I think it really does come down to if we can get consistent push in the run game. Everything else will fall into place.
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That's been the main thing. In each season since 2019 there's been dropped games that were for sure winnable.
  • 2020 - Wisconsin, lost by 3
  • 2021 - Bowling Green, lost by 4
  • 2022 - Purdue, lost by 10
  • 2023 - Northwestern, lost by 3 (OT)
  • 2024 - North Carolina, lost by 2
  • 2025 - California, lost by 13
Win those, the bowls are better, a Big Ten Championship Game is in play, at least in 2022.
 

mngg11 said:
I see it every year, man. Hope springs eternal. We're one or two impact players clicking a field goal kicker away from another big run. Just need the pieces to fall into place.
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Fixed it for you. Last year our kicking game killed us. I want someone who can routinely hit FGs from 50 yards out.
 

The Gophers are a development team. They don't have the luxury of annually "re-loading" with game ready 5* and high 4* players who were riding the bench, waiting their turn. When I see the rare season in which the Gophers send 3 or 4 kids to the combine and 5 or 6 to post-season talent bowls, I assume the next season will be so-so, as the new, inexperienced pieces grow into place. Conversely, in a year in which we send only 1 or none to the combine, and very few to post-season talent bowls, I assume the next season could be an upgrade as few key players have been lost (even if the body count leaving was high), and that we are bringing back some meaningful experience at multiple positions. So, on the basis of this very simplistic model, I think 2026 holds some real potential.

But schedule is important, too. In 2026, it seemed as though we either lost big or played in closely contested one-score games, many against teams we should have beaten more easily. If the Gophs continue to run the Harbaugh/Fleck offense--low yardage, paucity of explosive plays, low-scoring--I have a bad feeling about one score games this coming year. I think the "tranche" of opponents in games that are arguably "toss-ups" could be a little tougher in 2026. If the Gophs "change their best," and begin to run a more potent offense--one with results that resembles the Ciarocca years--I have a good feeling about "toss up" games. We might even win a few by more than a single score.
 

IceBoxGopher said:
That's been the main thing. In each season since 2019 there's been dropped games that were for sure winnable.
  • 2020 - Wisconsin, lost by 3
  • 2021 - Bowling Green, lost by 4
  • 2022 - Purdue, lost by 10
  • 2023 - Northwestern, lost by 3 (OT)
  • 2024 - North Carolina, lost by 2
  • 2025 - California, lost by 13
Win those, the bowls are better, a Big Ten Championship Game is in play, at least in 2022.
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There aren’t many teams that go unbeaten in close games.

In games of 9 or less:
2019 6-1
2020 2-2
2021 3-3
2022 3-1
2023 3-2
2024 3-4
2025 4-1

Winning those games makes a huge difference




Here is fleck regular season records
5-7
6-6
10-2
3-4
8-4
8-4
5-7
7-5
7-5

Change these 6 games
2021 - beat bowling green and you’re 9-3,.
2022 - don’t fumble vs Iowa and you’re 9-3
2023 - sucked ass but beat northwestern in overtime and you’re 6-6 in the worst season since 2018
2024 hit a field goal vs Carolina and don’t fumble vs Rutgers and you’re 9-3
2025 play below average on defense vs northwestern OR make field goals and you’re 8-4

Now flecks regular season records would be
5-7
6-6
10-2
3-4
9-3
9-3
6-6
9-3
8-4

I don’t think too many people are as upset ^^if that’s what we had going
 
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The schedule is once again, very favorable prognostically coming into the year
Miss OSU and Oregon
Michigan in retool mode. PSU in rebuild mode.
Zero reason this couldn't be one of those years. Nothing on the schedule that is chalked as an absolute, no doubt about it you're losing this game kind of one (like what OSU and Oregon were) which increases your margin.
 

upnorthkid said:
The schedule is once again, very favorable prognostically coming into the year
Miss OSU and Oregon
Michigan in retool mode. PSU in rebuild mode.
Zero reason this couldn't be one of those years. Nothing on the schedule that is chalked as an absolute, no doubt about it you're losing this game kind of one (like what OSU and Oregon were) which increases your margin.
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I agree with everything except the bolded

The reasons why it might not be this year are:
Can’t run the ball
Sophomore slump for the QB
DC
 

Some guy said:
I agree with everything except the bolded

The reasons why it might not be this year are:
Can’t run the ball
Sophomore slump for the QB
DC
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i mean sure. this is the same thing that could be said for every team. but on paper there's no immediate reason purely from a schedule standpoint, which is really all we know right now
 

IceBoxGopher said:
I think it's going to come down to the depth. That was really what made the difference in 2019, having a roster with so much beyond just a few star players.

The running back room had Ibrahim, Smith and Brooks for a great group. The receiver corp. had Bateman and a healthy Autman-Bell on top of Tyler Johnson. It wasn't just Winfield as a defensive back, we had Chris Williamson, Benjamin St-Juste, plus Jordan Howden and Terell Smith were there.

That level of talent across the board there made 11 wins possible. Building that type of roster depth is imperative for another great run like that, or even just 10 wins and a larger bowl game. Hopefully the transfer portal can help add enough pieces to the puzzle.
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Coney Durr as well
 


Gophergrandpa said:
But schedule is important, too. In 2026, it seemed as though we either lost big or played in closely contested one-score games, many against teams we should have beaten more easily.
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Have you got Biffs' next edition of Grays Sports Almanac: Complete Sports Statistics 2001-2040 after using your time machine?

Sorry to see that 2026 was a less-than-stellar season. I'm still going to keep my season tix to hope for a better season in 2027.:p
 

GophEnEspaña said:
The fact is that PJ is winning 8 games after we all know we're leaving 2-3 wins on the field. As all of you guys know, the question is how to we bridge that gap and not let those 2-3 wins slip away? I think last year was the most disappointing because aside of Oregon and OSU it was a very favorable schedule to go 10-2.

2026 is fascinating for many reasons. It's so cliche to say but as others have pointed out I think it really does come down to if we can get consistent push in the run game. Everything else will fall into place.
Click to expand...
Every year there are games MN could have won and games they could have lost. No different than any other team.
 

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