The myth of losing now to win later.

[EG#9]

This probably won't help, but I see this (incorrect) narrative all over of how the Gophers are somehow secretly in better long term shape than other schools because of their youth. I am sure I will continue to see it, but anyways here's 3 examples of coaches that came in at the same time as Ben Johnson:

Penn State: Penn State brought in the same number of kids as Minnesota did in the 2022 class (5) and had a higher average recruit ranking. Kebba Njie (no.3) and Jameel Brown (no.5) were two of the top 5 highest rated commits of "all time" (I believe it goes back to 2000) for Penn State. None of these kids showed what Payne did for Minnesota, but Njie and Kanye Clary were rotation players. For 2023, Penn State has 3 kids committed, the 32nd rated class in the nation, and their number 2 recruit of "all time"

Iowa State: Iowa State's class ranked ahead of Minnesota's despite bringing in 3 kids as opposed to Minnesota's 5. Their starting PG on a team that had a bunch of huge wins was their freshman in Tamin Lipsey. Lipsey is every bit the building block for ISU that Payne is at Minnesota. The other 2 recruits were the much discussed Minnesota kids in King and Watson. For 2023, ISU has 4 kids committed, the 7th overall class in the nation, their number 1 recruit of "all time" and their number 3 recuit of "all time"

Marquette: Marquette's freshman class ranked below Minnesota's, but they only had 3 kids. However one of those kids ranked just above Payne and another ranked above everyone else in Minnesota's class besides Payne. All 3 played between 8 and 16 minutes per game (per Bref) on a team that won the Big East. For 2023, Marquette has 3 kids signed and the 23rd class in the nation. Unlike PSU and ISU, the majority of their nucleus will be back for 2023 as well.

All of these teams were miles better than Minnesota in '22 and all of these teams have more young talent for the '23 season and beyond.

 

[BleedGopher]

While not specifically in response to your post EG#9, one of my thoughts about our reliance on this freshman class is we (as most fans do) seem to over hype our own forgetting that other teams also have freshmen who are also going to be sophomores next year and seemingly also going to continue developing. Heck, our beloved freshman class (which is likely losing Henley) didn't even have one player on the All Freshman team.

ALL-FRESHMAN TEAM
Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
Jett Howard, Michigan
Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
Braden Smith, Purdue
Connor Essegian, Wisconsin

So that's at least 5 different teams who have at least 1 freshman who had better seasons than any of our freshman (if we are using the All Freshman Team as the criteria).

We have a few nice pieces to work with, but so do many other Big Ten teams.

Go Gophers!!

 

[Wet_Blanket_Guy]

While not specifically in response to your post EG#9, one of my thoughts about our reliance on this freshman class is we (as most fans do) seem to over hype our own forgetting that other teams also have freshmen who are also going to be sophomores next year and seemingly also going to continue developing. Heck, our beloved freshman class (which is likely losing Henley) didn't even have one player on the All Freshman team.

ALL-FRESHMAN TEAM
Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
Jett Howard, Michigan
Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
Braden Smith, Purdue
Connor Essegian, Wisconsin

So that's at least 5 different teams who have at least 1 freshman who had better seasons than any of our freshman (if we are using the All Freshman Team as the criteria).

We have a few nice pieces to work with, but so do many other Big Ten teams.

Go Gophers!!

That says it all. There are two types of freshmen. Really really good freshmen who EARN minutes on top teams (big10 specifically in this response) and then there are our freshmen who were gift minutes out of necessity. Only Payne would play minutes on a good team and those minutes are probably 10 min a game due to turnover issues and foul trouble.

 

[MUgopher32]

While not specifically in response to your post EG#9, one of my thoughts about our reliance on this freshman class is we (as most fans do) seem to over hype our own forgetting that other teams also have freshmen who are also going to be sophomores next year and seemingly also going to continue developing. Heck, our beloved freshman class (which is likely losing Henley) didn't even have one player on the All Freshman team.

ALL-FRESHMAN TEAM
Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
Jett Howard, Michigan
Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
Braden Smith, Purdue
Connor Essegian, Wisconsin

So that's at least 5 different teams who have at least 1 freshman who had better seasons than any of our freshman (if we are using the All Freshman Team as the criteria).

We have a few nice pieces to work with, but so do many other Big Ten teams.

Go Gophers!!

A few of the guys on this list may not even do another year in college though.

 

[Wet_Blanket_Guy]

A few of the guys on this list may not even do another year in college though.

And then there will be more top freshmen…who will likely be better than our sophomores

 

[bga1]

While not specifically in response to your post EG#9, one of my thoughts about our reliance on this freshman class is we (as most fans do) seem to over hype our own forgetting that other teams also have freshmen who are also going to be sophomores next year and seemingly also going to continue developing. Heck, our beloved freshman class (which is likely losing Henley) didn't even have one player on the All Freshman team.

ALL-FRESHMAN TEAM
Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
Jett Howard, Michigan
Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
Braden Smith, Purdue
Connor Essegian, Wisconsin

So that's at least 5 different teams who have at least 1 freshman who had better seasons than any of our freshman (if we are using the All Freshman Team as the criteria).

We have a few nice pieces to work with, but so do many other Big Ten teams.

Go Gophers!!

It is going to boil down to Ben doing enough this coming year to hold everyone in there (7+ Big Ten wins). Then he has to get solid recruiting classes every year and develop those kids into good teams that play on both ends of the floor.

I hope Ben can get in Henley's head in the next couple of days. There is a kid with really good potential that would not have played 10 minutes per game on a good team this past year. If he stays the course it can all pay off and his opportunity here is clearer than anywhere else. I'd like to see us go with him at the 3 if Battle leaves, Christie or Carrington at the 2 and find a good seasoned PG with quickness. Pair that with Payne and Garcia and this club isn't far off, especially if Ihnen and Fox can contribute. Ihnen, Fox and JOJ would be pretty darn good depth players on a solid team (if healthy).

 

[Bad Gopher]

While not specifically in response to your post EG#9, one of my thoughts about our reliance on this freshman class is we (as most fans do) seem to over hype our own forgetting that other teams also have freshmen who are also going to be sophomores next year and seemingly also going to continue developing. Heck, our beloved freshman class (which is likely losing Henley) didn't even have one player on the All Freshman team.

ALL-FRESHMAN TEAM
Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
Jett Howard, Michigan
Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
Braden Smith, Purdue
Connor Essegian, Wisconsin

So that's at least 5 different teams who have at least 1 freshman who had better seasons than any of our freshman (if we are using the All Freshman Team as the criteria).

We have a few nice pieces to work with, but so do many other Big Ten teams.

Go Gophers!!

Smith is one of those 3-star Purdue players I talked about in that other thread who are performing at a high level. Starting on a national title contender, as a freshman, no less! Those players are out there, but you have to find them and develop them. That's actually good news for programs like the Gophers!

 

[CentralGopher]

While not specifically in response to your post EG#9, one of my thoughts about our reliance on this freshman class is we (as most fans do) seem to over hype our own forgetting that other teams also have freshmen who are also going to be sophomores next year and seemingly also going to continue developing. Heck, our beloved freshman class (which is likely losing Henley) didn't even have one player on the All Freshman team.

ALL-FRESHMAN TEAM
Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
Jett Howard, Michigan
Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
Braden Smith, Purdue
Connor Essegian, Wisconsin

So that's at least 5 different teams who have at least 1 freshman who had better seasons than any of our freshman (if we are using the All Freshman Team as the criteria).

We have a few nice pieces to work with, but so do many other Big Ten teams.

Go Gophers!!

We’ve all seen teams with one great player that weren’t very good teams. I’m fine with not having a player on the list as long as the sum of the freshmen we have is better than the sum of the players these other teams have. Not saying we will or won’t have a better team overall but that using this list of all freshmen players is misleading at best.

 

[Wet_Blanket_Guy]

It is going to boil down to Ben doing enough this coming year to hold everyone in there (7+ Big Ten wins). Then he has to get solid recruiting classes every year and develop those kids into good teams that play on both ends of the floor.

I hope Ben can get in Henley's head in the next couple of days. There is a kid with really good potential that would not have played 10 minutes per game on a good team this past year. If he stays the course it can all pay off and his opportunity here is clearer than anywhere else. I'd like to see us go with him at the 3 if Battle leaves, Christie or Carrington at the 2 and find a good seasoned PG with quickness. Pair that with Payne and Garcia and this club isn't far off, especially if Ihnen and Fox can contribute. Ihnen, Fox and JOJ would be pretty darn good depth players on a solid team (if healthy).

Agree that Henley (if he stays should slide over to the 3 and start if we don’t get better in the portal). I feel CBJ has been told it’s NCAA bubble or he’s packing

 

[Bad Gopher]

Agree that Henley (if he stays should slide over to the 3 and start if we don’t get better in the portal). I feel CBJ has been told it’s NCAA bubble or he’s packing

At the least, he knows he's recruiting for his job. On the other hand, every coach is recruiting for their job every year...or at least should be, right? Maybe Ben has already been recruiting for his job the whole time, and this is as good as he can do.

 

[fmlizard]

"Losing now to win later" doesn't work in college sports where success breeds more success and failure breeds more failure. Even if it sorta works, it's highly unreliable in the transfer portal era, when your long-term investments can just walk out the door at any time.

Losing a bunch in order to get better only works in pro sports where there's a draft, and you can keep your young players on their rookie contracts for at least 4-5 years.

 

[Gopher Teeth]

At the least, he knows he's recruiting for his job. On the other hand, every coach is recruiting for their job every year...or at least should be, right? Maybe Ben has already been recruiting for his job the whole time, and this is as good as he can do.

I don’t think effort is the issue for Ben, in fact in the last two games he looked like he is ready to collapse from exhaustion. I just think he had some idealistic ideas on how things would be, which is not surprising for an inexperienced coach, but he is finding some of those things don’t work that way.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

I would like to see Ben succeed in basketball. Well, he has had success financially so there is that but 999 times out of 1000 a person must have success prior to a payoff but here we are.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Smith is one of those 3-star Purdue players I talked about in that other thread who are performing at a high level. Starting on a national title contender, as a freshman, no less! Those players are out there, but you have to find them and develop them. That's actually good news for programs like the Gophers!

Great point and I think Ben has shown he has a good eye with Henley, only SDSU was his other offer and spotting Evans early and JOJ, whose only other P6 offer, was Clemson.

Payne due to his size and Carrington being Mr. Buckets would have been auto offers for and Gopher coach

 

[MNVCGUY]

At the least, he knows he's recruiting for his job. On the other hand, every coach is recruiting for their job every year...or at least should be, right? Maybe Ben has already been recruiting for his job the whole time, and this is as good as he can do.

This off season will tell us a lot because we are at the point now where the team is going to have to start winning more for Johnson to keep his job. So the pressure will be on him to find the right players to go with the guys already in place to make improvements next year.

 

[Bad Gopher]

Great point and I think Ben has shown he has a good eye with Henley, only SDSU was his other offer and spotting Evans early and JOJ, whose only other P6 offer, was Clemson.

Payne due to his size and Carrington being Mr. Buckets would have been auto offers for and Gopher coach

I've felt that way, too. We were in on those guys early, as we were with Chrstie. It's just that it hasn't been as good as others (Smith of Purdue, for example). Clem's Gophers of '89 and '90 had a bunch of those guys: Lynch, Coffey, Bond, Lewis--three of which ended up in the NBA. That's excellent development! ...which is the other piece of this.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I've felt that way, too. We were in on those guys early, as we were with Chrstie. It's just that it hasn't been as good as others (Smith of Purdue, for example). Clem's Gophers of '89 and '90 had a bunch of those guys: Lynch, Coffey, Bond, Lewis--three of which ended up in the NBA. That's excellent development! ...which is the other piece of this.

Yup, It will be interesting to see how our group of Freshmen develop compared to others

With the 2025 MN recruits stacked, I hope Ben takes the leap next season or make the change then, so the new coach can build some bridges

 

[WindyCityGopher]

Great point and I think Ben has shown he has a good eye with Henley, only SDSU was his other offer and spotting Evans early and JOJ, whose only other P6 offer, was Clemson.

Payne due to his size and Carrington being Mr. Buckets would have been auto offers for and Gopher coach

And now Henley is gone (who knows, more may follow) and Evans never came. You have to have more than a good eye in this new world, you have to be able identify and develop and, probably most importantly, retain the talent you bring in and develop, or else your just doing it for the benefit of another program.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

And now Henley is gone (who knows, more may follow) and Evans never came. You have to have more than a good eye in this new world, you have to be able identify and develop and, probably most importantly, retain the talent you bring in and develop, or else your just doing it for the benefit of another program.

Well, what’s the alternative then?

It would be interesting to know what the mean is for decommits and portal transfers for players who had multiple seasons left for P6 teams - may provide some perspective.

 

[Bad Gopher]

I don’t think effort is the issue for Ben, in fact in the last two games he looked like he is ready to collapse from exhaustion. I just think he had some idealistic ideas on how things would be, which is not surprising for an inexperienced coach, but he is finding some of those things don’t work that way.

Worn down and a good 20 pounds heavier than when he was hired. I don't want to see him on the Gardenhire plan, but so far, that's the way it's looking. Success or failure aside, this feels more and more unsustainable in all facets.

 

[forever a gopher]

Take Connor Essegian at WI - ranked #226 overall (edit: as a recruit out of HS). He had a dud of a game against the Gophers, but put up a nice stat line this year as a TR FR at a place that traditionally doesn't give freshman much run: 12pts/ 38% 3PT / 87% FT.

To assume that our freshman will somehow pan out better than others just because they're being given minutes on a bad team is silly.

 

[WindyCityGopher]

Worn down and a good 20 pounds heavier than when he was hired. I don't want to see him on the Gardenhire plan, but so far, that's the way it's looking. Success or failure aside, this feels more and more unsustainable in all facets.

Unfortunately I’m also worn down and a good 20 pounds heavier than when he was hired. This isn’t turning out well for any of us.

 

[Otis]

This only works in draft sports, pool, cards and sandbagging golf.

There is no incentive to lose in college sports in any year.