The Law of the Unknown Trajectory

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Clairemont Gopher

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This comes up every year. Some posters are stating or implying that the Gophers would have won yesterday if Denaburg had made his two field goal tries. The truth is that we cannot know this. If he had made the first, the next play would have been a kickoff and the game would have spun off on a path that is unknowable. When this is understood, the life of a fan is much easier, with much less post-game torture.
 


Yep, it's easy to pin it on the kicker because it's a simplistic answer and requires no critical thinking. We would have won if Denaburg hit his tries, but the defense and defensive playcalling was completely inept and created a situation where we had to rely on the kicker to survive. The offense did more than enough for us to not need the kicker, particularly against what was a terrible offense prior to our game.
 

When you take special teams as a whole, that is what put the Gophers in the game, which generated more points than the missed FGs left off the board. There were I believe more return yards than passing yards.
 

Catechol said:
When you take special teams as a whole, that is what put the Gophers in the game, which generated more points than the missed FGs left off the board. There were I believe more return yards than passing yards.
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Which leads to a thought I had yesterday when Koi had the long kick-off return that setup the first TD. Fleck loves to say there is no such thing as momentum. If you don't think that play changed the game, I don't know what to say. It was bigger than winning on one play. It got us in the end zone (even though the offense tried to flub it up), and it got the team thinking we can still win. Maybe they already thought it, but it was big moment.
 


Clairemont Gopher said:
This comes up every year. Some posters are stating or implying that the Gophers would have won yesterday if Denaburg had made his two field goal tries. The truth is that we cannot know this. If he had made the first, the next play would have been a kickoff and the game would have spun off on a path that is unknowable. When this is understood, the life of a fan is much easier, with much less post-game torture.
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True. In one universe the kick’s good. In the rest, the Gophers just poop their pants harder. Infinite timelines, probably similar results.
 

Sparlimb said:
Which leads to a thought I had yesterday when Koi had the long kick-off return that setup the first TD. Fleck loves to say there is no such thing as momentum. If you don't think that play changed the game, I don't know what to say. It was bigger than winning on one play. It got us in the end zone (even though the offense tried to flub it up), and it got the team thinking we can still win. Maybe they already thought it, but it was big moment.
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There is momentum, positive (ask Cignetti) and negative (ask our DC). PJ is just wrong in this. Maybe this is why PJ, when we are cooking, seems to take his foot off the accelerator once we take the lead.
 
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Im pretty sure the trajectory would have been OT if he makes that last kick
The OP is just new age navel gazing.
 

Sparlimb said:
Which leads to a thought I had yesterday when Koi had the long kick-off return that setup the first TD. Fleck loves to say there is no such thing as momentum. If you don't think that play changed the game, I don't know what to say. It was bigger than winning on one play. It got us in the end zone (even though the offense tried to flub it up), and it got the team thinking we can still win. Maybe they already thought it, but it was big moment.
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But based on the law of momentum that play shouldnt have happened because NW’s momentum off of those first couple of drives should have carried them.
 



I believe as a general principle that a team’s chances of winning materially increase if you have a kicker who makes FGs rather than missed them. Every point is precious in close toss-up games. Especially when you have a coach who is conservative and will play for the FG rather than get aggressive on third down.
 

A lot of folks have mentioned it here. I don’t blame the kicker. It’s just like in business. I don’t blame the Frontline folks. It’s the people that managed them that take responsibility if they’re not capable of doing the job, then they shouldn’t be in the position.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
There is momentum, positive and negative. PJ is just wrong in this.
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It’s cognitive therapy psychological self-help motivational speaker-land to go along with goldfish memory.

It’s fine to say it and even believe it but it borders on atheist in foxhole territory. We intuitively understand disregarding recent events doesn’t happen in real life. We as fans are susceptible to momentum swings as well.

Win convincingly (or unconvincingly) vs the skunks and the outlook brightens considerably!
 




PJ thinks of momentum in terms of physics. A football bouncing on the turf will tend to keep bouncing until the friction and transfer of force happening with each bounce brings motion to zero.

Momentum in football is a psychological phenomena that builds upon itself once flipped.

Koi certainly flipped the psyche of the Gophers with that return that was basically sustained from there on for the offensive side of the ball. Actually think it flipped the Defense too but they just didn't have a clue what was happening to them. Sigh.
 


Clairemont Gopher said:
This comes up every year. Some posters are stating or implying that the Gophers would have won yesterday if Denaburg had made his two field goal tries. The truth is that we cannot know this. If he had made the first, the next play would have been a kickoff and the game would have spun off on a path that is unknowable. When this is understood, the life of a fan is much easier, with much less post-game torture.
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There was no chance in hell he was making that first kick. We would have been better off going for it. I don't even think PJ believed he was going to make it
 

Clairemont Gopher said:
I was referring to the first kick.nd not the second. Not sure you got the point.
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Yeah, I know.
Its a silly way to look at things.
Missing a FG cost points and lowered the chances of winning. Turns out we lost by three.
"But we can't know that", while technically true, is just useless Navajo gazing.
Do we not find fault with the defense for giving up 38 points because we don't kniw what would have happened if they'd given up less?
 
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The Anthony smith offsides was HUGE...almost as bad as missed kicks.
 


Word said:
The Anthony smith offsides was HUGE...almost as bad as missed kicks.
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This. Hard to underestimate how impactful that mistake was. Would have been 3rd and 21, with a stopped clock. I cited this very play to our group of friends we breakfasted w/ this morning (we all were at Wrigley yesterday). I also said it was doubly depressing/maddening as it was committed by an upperclassman. experienced, leader.
 

Stuff said:
Yes the loss is not the Kickers fault. There were multiple failures.
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Absolutely true, but the kicker should be relegated to kickoffs the rest of the way. Let Jackson or someone else have a shot. Deneberg almost missed a point after attempt yesterday, which has kind of been lost in everything else.
 

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