The inability to throw downfield

I'd be interested in knowing how much of the blame for the lack of explosive passing plays goes in the following buckets : 1. lack of talent (specifically speed) at the WR position 2. A poorly constructed offense that either doesn't stress defenses with its route combinations or confuses them with motion/formation/tempo changes or 3. Overall offensive philosophy.

I thought a lot of this was honestly speed until I saw some combine testing. The Big 12 did something new this year and had a pro day/ combine in Dallas where players from all member schools could attend. A lot of the WR times there were not impressive from guys who made explosive plays for schools like Kansas, TCU, West Virginia, K State, etc. At the Gophers pro day, CrAB ran a 4.59 and Corey Crooms ran a 4.63. The best time from a WR who actually got playing time at that Big 12 combine was 4.51 and that was by a Kansas State kid who was only 5'7. These certainly are not wow times for WR's by any means but they were in line and/or faster than many of the times I saw across the country. Looking at the NFL combine and CrAB would have only finished ahead of 2 of the 30 invited participants. Gopher killer Isaiah Williams ran a 4.63 (identical to Crooms) and Keon Coleman ran a 4.61. This was CrAB after multiple serious injuries too. I still think a guy running say 4.45 or better is more of a need than a want, but I think you can make some big plays against all but the Alabama's and tOSU's of the world with guys running in the 4.6 range if your offense is creative enough.

Very wordy way of trying to answer my own question but my own thought is maybe 20% lack of talent/speed, 50% offensive construction and 30% philosophy in that we just don't even try to stress the defense by throwing deep. I am not at all confident in that answer though and am open to other thoughts. If we were trying to get from the middle to the top quarter or FBS teams in explosive plays instead of from at/near the bottom of all FBS teams to the middle of the pack, I'd put significantly more of the "blame" on a lack of speed/talent at WR.

As for Daniel Jackson, I think he's a very good wide receiver who is miscast in trying to make plays outside the numbers/down the side lines. He's a technician who gets open with his route running skills. He's not a guy who is just going to run a 9 route and either out run somebody or box them out and outleap/bully them for a 50/50 ball. He's the guy who makes someone look silly in the red zone in a short area like he did against Nebraska. I don't think the Gophers try to make him their deep option that often, but those who don't think he's very good are probably referring to those types of plays.
 

Football fans are obsessed with The Deep Ball, but how important is it, really?

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Death of the long pass: Are vertical plays trending toward extinction?​

 

There are many reasons we cannot pass the ball and we all know them. One huge problem with Fleck is that there is no interest in having a couple guys via for the starting role. Just get a guy because he is great at an FCS school, call him the starter and go with it. There is something positive about a guy who earns the starting role, leadership and accountability. It might make a difference.
 

Football fans are obsessed with The Deep Ball, but how important is it, really?

--------------------------

Death of the long pass: Are vertical plays trending toward extinction?​

It's really important. The article you linked proves that.
 

Maybe we are ‘hiding’ plays for later in the season. I recall this was an early season excuse for Kill Leidner futility.
 


On the PI call that benefited us ... that pass wasn't likely going to be caught.

I'm not sure that is encouraging to take more shots.

I'd argue the opposite, you need to make passes first ... then stretch the field. UNC seemed to be playing with lots of guys set way back off the line waiting for longer passes. When we went for short quick passes we found more success.

Hit them where they aint.
Brosmer/Jackson drew two penalties on medium long sideline passes. Both were great throws and likely to be caught for big gains without the PI calls.
 

Football fans are obsessed with The Deep Ball, but how important is it, really?

--------------------------

Death of the long pass: Are vertical plays trending toward extinction?​

You better have the threat of a deep pass to keep defenses honest. The Gophers pass game worries no one.
 

Some factors beyond conservative (and occasionally bizarre) scheme affecting success and efficiency:

What are the Minnesota WR drop rate and contested catch rate over the last 10 years. Low single digits or approaching double digits.

What percent of attempts are on third and long.

What percent of attempts are late in the game playing from behind.
 

I'd be interested in knowing how much of the blame for the lack of explosive passing plays goes in the following buckets : 1. lack of talent (specifically speed) at the WR position 2. A poorly constructed offense that either doesn't stress defenses with its route combinations or confuses them with motion/formation/tempo changes or 3. Overall offensive philosophy.

I thought a lot of this was honestly speed until I saw some combine testing. The Big 12 did something new this year and had a pro day/ combine in Dallas where players from all member schools could attend. A lot of the WR times there were not impressive from guys who made explosive plays for schools like Kansas, TCU, West Virginia, K State, etc. At the Gophers pro day, CrAB ran a 4.59 and Corey Crooms ran a 4.63. The best time from a WR who actually got playing time at that Big 12 combine was 4.51 and that was by a Kansas State kid who was only 5'7. These certainly are not wow times for WR's by any means but they were in line and/or faster than many of the times I saw across the country. Looking at the NFL combine and CrAB would have only finished ahead of 2 of the 30 invited participants. Gopher killer Isaiah Williams ran a 4.63 (identical to Crooms) and Keon Coleman ran a 4.61. This was CrAB after multiple serious injuries too. I still think a guy running say 4.45 or better is more of a need than a want, but I think you can make some big plays against all but the Alabama's and tOSU's of the world with guys running in the 4.6 range if your offense is creative enough.

Very wordy way of trying to answer my own question but my own thought is maybe 20% lack of talent/speed, 50% offensive construction and 30% philosophy in that we just don't even try to stress the defense by throwing deep. I am not at all confident in that answer though and am open to other thoughts. If we were trying to get from the middle to the top quarter or FBS teams in explosive plays instead of from at/near the bottom of all FBS teams to the middle of the pack, I'd put significantly more of the "blame" on a lack of speed/talent at WR.

As for Daniel Jackson, I think he's a very good wide receiver who is miscast in trying to make plays outside the numbers/down the side lines. He's a technician who gets open with his route running skills. He's not a guy who is just going to run a 9 route and either out run somebody or box them out and outleap/bully them for a 50/50 ball. He's the guy who makes someone look silly in the red zone in a short area like he did against Nebraska. I don't think the Gophers try to make him their deep option that often, but those who don't think he's very good are probably referring to those types of plays.
I was wondering the same thing EG#9. Thanks for your analysis! I still think it's mostly a lack of speed. Well, I think we should include quickness and explosiveness because these things are usually closely related to speed. We've seen the same problems with other historically "boring" offenses in our region like Iowa, WI and NE. There is a reason we produce a lot of good TEs up north, but not a lot of great receivers. TE is a very technical position that also heavily involves blocking. Having elite speed and quickness is not as important.

Most of our receivers are not very fast, which is why we have historically relied more on the run. We have a lot of really big guys up north. Lean into what you have and then supplement as much as possible for speed from the south. The problem is the best guys down there are staying close to home except when they go to a blue blood program up north which is not us! This is well know by many including on this board. I'm not saying anything new, right?

I'm glad we're seeing schools like Wisconsin and Iowa experiment with more modern offenses. If it works, we'll be forced to change too. Even if it does work, they still won't look like the best schools from the south. Just watch some of their games against overmatched opponents. They just run circles around them. Short pass, long pass, it doesn't matter. They just blow up angles and go to the house! Some of the SEC teams were up by 40 at HALF TIME this weekend! Iowa worked hard to get 40. Tennessee put it into cruise control and got 70. Watch some of the highlights. Insane! Our receivers don't look that fast even vs. overmatched foes and that's the same for our neighboring schools. We just eventually pound them into dust because we have more size and strength. Look at some of the situations the Iowas and Michigan States of the world got themselves into in the old CFP when they overperformed in the Big Ten and ended up facing a team with elite speed and quickness from the south. Those stout defenses didn't look so hot when a guy could just outrun their angles or blow their doors off with quickness. Those embarrassments are still burned into my brain!!!

My hope is the overwhelming money in the Big Ten will eventually even the playing field to some degree and lure a few more higher end, super fast/quick guys up north. I actually think their is some modest evidence this is happening already. Some of those guys would rather get a modest bag to play immediately up here rather than wait another year to get off the bench down there. Unfortunately, no matter how modern our offense, I still don't think we'll get the best of them. As Ryan Burns from Gopher Illustrated often reminds us, we have the worst 300 mile recruiting radius of any P5 program. It is what it is...
 






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