The Gophers should win the next three games - agree or disagree?

[magpie]

If history has taught fans anything, let alone Gopher fans, it's that inconsistency or a poor match-up can cause an underdog to win. Heck, a penalty, turnover, or other single play can change the result of a game. The next three games are all winnable -- and losable. The only thing I expect is for Decker to catch a few balls and Tripplett to make a few tackles. I'm hoping for an improved Gopher squad that triumphs, but I would not be upset if we went 2-1 in this stretch.

 

[ncgo4]

This is waaaay tooo much thinking. The only thing that matters is what to we do Saturday against NU!

The keys are: 1. How do we do against NU's passing, 2. Can we stop their QB when he runs? 3. Will our offense finally get it's sh**t together?

The answers to 1 & 2 are that last year we could not and this year I think we will! We're faster and have a better, group of LB's. Four of 'em. We'll stop Kafka, we learned a good lesson last year. The only Q is our offense. I think our new receivers are coming onto their own and I expect we may just say to heck with the run.

Go Gophers!

 

[Gopherprof]

We should definitely win 2 of the 3.

It's hard to win 3 games in a row, particularly when you probably won't be favorites in two of the three. I think we can do it, but I don't think it's a high probability.

If we lose 2 or more, ugh.....

 

[sfbadger]

If you watched Wiscy and Fresno, if Fresno had a decent passing attack, they win in a walk. They are a running team and Wiscy is much better against the run. Fortunately we should be able to move against the W pass defense which is getting banged up.

Against the Badgers:
Fresno Running Game - 39 rushes for 179 yards, no TDs
Fresno Passing Game - 22/36 attempts for 286 yards and 4 TDs

I'd call that a decent passing attack. Top to bottom, the Bulldogs have better receivers than the Gophers. QBs are probably a push, although Colburn does have a higher rating than Weber (and both pale in comparison to Tolzien).

The Gophers have no running game, no run defense, and only one receiver to stop. Looks like yet another group of Gopher seniors that will never touch the axe.

 

[sfbadger]

I don't see anything about Northwestern would led me to believe they are anything but an inferior opponent (as are Wisconsin and Purdue - the Gophers should not be underdogs or even slight favorites in those games - they should be expected to win and do so soundly based on how bad those teams appear to be).

Sagarin Ratings
16 Wisconsin 83.00
37 Northern Illinois 76.75
46 Fresno State 75.85 (with 2 losses!)
49 Minnesota 75.14
101 Syracuse 64.24
102 Wofford 63.91

From the teams the Badgers have played thus far, only Wofford is a more "inferior opponent" than the Gophers. I can't wait to see your fair-weather fans streaming out of your stadiette after the Badger lay a beat-down on them.

 

[sfbadger]

Its always nice to think the Gophers should beat Wiscy but the Badgers always beat the Gophers.

FIFY

 

[WAGopher]

Sagarin Ratings
16 Wisconsin 83.00
37 Northern Illinois 76.75
46 Fresno State 75.85 (with 2 losses!)
49 Minnesota 75.14
101 Syracuse 64.24
102 Wofford 63.91

From the teams the Badgers have played thus far, only Wofford is a more "inferior opponent" than the Gophers. I can't wait to see your fair-weather fans streaming out of your stadiette after the Badger lay a beat-down on them.

Nothing like using crap statistics to make your point worthless. Don't you know that Sagarin's rankings mean very little until later in the year when there is enough data to base all rankings on this year only? Sagarin calls this being Connected and currently they are Unconnected. Come back in a few weeks when they are connected and there will be something meaningful about Sagarin to discuss.

 

[sfbadger]

Nothing like using crap statistics to make your point worthless. Don't you know that Sagarin's rankings mean very little until later in the year when there is enough data to base all rankings on this year only? Sagarin calls this being Connected and currently they are Unconnected. Come back in a few weeks when they are connected and there will be something meaningful about Sagarin to discuss.

Don't you know, there are no "crap statistics," only statistically crappy teams.

And if we wait until later in the year, the Gophers will have gone into their annual slide, and we won't need Sagarin, we can just look at the Gophers abysmal win-loss record. Let's use these stats while we still can!

 

[josh087]

Even if we have an 80% chance of winning each game, that only comes out to a 50% chance of winning all three. ( 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = .051)

You can't look at it this way. Each game is independent of the next one. Each has it's own separate odds.

It's like a coin toss. Each time you toss a coin there is a 50% chance that it will be either heads or tails. If you flip a coin 1,000 times - it is still the same odds each time you flip it. 50%.

Now - do we have an 80% chance of winning each of our next 3? Probably not. I would put Purdue nearest to 80%, with today's game and Wisconsin closer to 50%.

Whatever percentage you want to use for each game - it is independent of the other two.

 

[WAGopher]

Don't you know, there are no "crap statistics," only statistically crappy teams.

And if we wait until later in the year, the Gophers will have gone into their annual slide, and we won't need Sagarin, we can just look at the Gophers abysmal win-loss record. Let's use these stats while we still can!

OK, you use your meaningless stats to describe an unknown Wisconsin team and I'll be happy to let the Gophers prove it on the field, where they were tied far into the 4th quarter with the #7 team in the nation. I'm liking our chances against NU today and the Badgers next week.

 

[tikited]

What everyone is forgetting is this: NW, Wisc., and Purdue fans are thinking the same things we are. NW fans think there is no reason why they shouldn't beat us at home. Wisc. fans feel they are better than us, and it is a win for the taking. Even Purdue looks at us as a winnable game on the road. With the exception of Indiana and Mich.(we don't play them) every other team in the Big Ten still looks at our game with them as one they can't let get away. With that said-I will be expecting us to win all three

 

[sfbadger]

You can't look at it this way. Each game is independent of the next one. Each has it's own separate odds.

It's like a coin toss. Each time you toss a coin there is a 50% chance that it will be either heads or tails. If you flip a coin 1,000 times - it is still the same odds each time you flip it. 50%.

Now - do we have an 80% chance of winning each of our next 3? Probably not. I would put Purdue nearest to 80%, with today's game and Wisconsin closer to 50%.

Whatever percentage you want to use for each game - it is independent of the other two.

Do they not offer a statistics course at Minnesota? Time to crack open a stats book, Einstein. His math is perfectly correct for independent events. If you have an 80% chance of winning each game, you have a 51.2% chance of winning all three. Using your percentages it's only 20%.

 

[RodentRampage]

You can't look at it this way. Each game is independent of the next one. Each has it's own separate odds.

It's like a coin toss. Each time you toss a coin there is a 50% chance that it will be either heads or tails. If you flip a coin 1,000 times - it is still the same odds each time you flip it. 50%.

Now - do we have an 80% chance of winning each of our next 3? Probably not. I would put Purdue nearest to 80%, with today's game and Wisconsin closer to 50%.

Whatever percentage you want to use for each game - it is independent of the other two.

Yes, the games are independent, but you have to look at the statistics this way, it's how statistics works.

Since you brought up coin flips, let's look at coin flips. You're going to flip the coin three times. Each flip as a 50% chance of coming up heads. What is the chances of all 3 flips coming up heads? It's a 1/8 chance, 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8.

The coin flips, just like the games are independent events. The way you calculate the probability of a series of independent events is to multiply the probabilities, this is Statistics 101. Multiplying the probabilities in no way treats them as dependent events.

 

[Clyde Tester]

- Based on season-to-date performance I believe the Gophers should be considered a better team than Northwestern, Wisconsin and Purdue.

I continue to believe the above after the win at NW. There is no reason we should not be considered a better squad than both Wisconsin and Purdue.

- If the Gophers do lose one of the next three games, is there anyone here who won't be VERY disappointed? If expecting a win against three seemingly inferior teams is setting expectations too high, what sort of expectations do you have? If not now, when can you EVER have high expectations of this team?

Standing by this as well.

You can now throw out all of the statistical nonsense about how tough it is to win three straight games...we're now just talking about winning two straight (these two are statistically independent of the NW win). The Gophers are currently 3 point favorites at home against the Badgers. This is a very winnable matchup and a Gopher Victory sets up nicely for the 3-0 run.

I'm pumped about the win at NW - it was nice to be able to step away from the TV happy about the win instead of mad that they pissed it away...

Big game Saturday!!!!!

 

[Clyde Tester]

I posted this in the Doogie thread but it really belongs in this dialogue as well:

In the next three games:
3 wins - shows progress and reason to believe that this team has improved and is focused. I 100% guarantee that Brewster expects this result of himself and his team - so we as fans should realistically hope (if not expect) this happens.
2 wins - the "typical" result for the program - nothing to question Brew over but nothing to be excited about. An average result.
1 win - serious reason to doubt the direction of the program - Brewster on a spicy chili hot seat
0 wins - I refuse to consider this as an option.

1 out of 1 complete!!!

 

[Clyde Tester]

I agree the Gophers have a very good chance of winning the next three games, and if they don't, I will be disappointed. They have so much experience back this year, and if you can't beat NW, Purdue and Wisconsin this year, when will you?

Obviously the way they play in these games will also say a lot. It isn't just about the final score. But this program has raised its expectations. It's time for them to deliver. They need to find a way to win each of the next three.

They have a real opportunity to raise the profile of the program. If they win these next three and go 8-4 and go to a bowl game, that will be big for recruiting when you add it in with the new stadium.

This posting remains right on I think.

 

[Clyde Tester]

What everyone is forgetting is this: NW, Wisc., and Purdue fans are thinking the same things we are. NW fans think there is no reason why they shouldn't beat us at home. Wisc. fans feel they are better than us, and it is a win for the taking. Even Purdue looks at us as a winnable game on the road. With the exception of Indiana and Mich.(we don't play them) every other team in the Big Ten still looks at our game with them as one they can't let get away.

But they are all wrong.

 

[Clyde Tester]

I posted this in the Doogie thread but it really belongs in this dialogue as well:

In the next three games:
3 wins - shows progress and reason to believe that this team has improved and is focused. I 100% guarantee that Brewster expects this result of himself and his team - so we as fans should realistically hope (if not expect) this happens.
2 wins - the "typical" result for the program - nothing to question Brew over but nothing to be excited about. An average result.
1 win - serious reason to doubt the direction of the program - Brewster on a spicy chili hot seat
0 wins - I refuse to consider this as an option.

We're now in the "average result" category and teetering on the brink of a complete program disaster should Purdue find a way to win. I think the Gophers will beat Purdue but after the Wisconsin loss I have to admit that anything is possible this Saturday.

Even if they do end up 2-1 in this 3-game stretch, I'm pretty disappointed as the Wisconsin game was a winnable game. But if they do go 2-1 then a strong finish is still possible given a few very winnable games outside of PSU/OSU/Iowa. Wins against Purdue, Mich St, Illinois and SDSU would leave the Gophers with a 7-5 record (but given the Gophers Big 10 record under Brew is there any reason to believe that we'll win all three against Purdue, Mich St and Illinois? I think we should be the realist in me says it likely won't happen). Anything less than that would be very disappointing for all involved (fans/players/coaches).

So I'm hoping for the best (7-5) but preparing for the worst (6-6 or even 5-7 if there is a total meltdown).

Let's beat Purdue this weekend and head out on the road with a win in the rear view mirror!!!