The Good, The Bad and The Interesting: The Hey We Don't Suck Edition

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The Good, The Bad and The Interesting: The Hey We Don't Suck Edition
By ZipsOfAkron

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/585396?referrer_id=

Aaaaaand, pause. Heading into the season, we knew there would be plenty of downs, a few ups, some growth and enough hiccups that patience would be required in Gandhi-level proportions. 7 games into the season, that forecast is holding largely true, as the Gophers have come from behind, melted down, lost games they should have won and won games they should have lost. Yet here we are at 5-2 with no bad losses and even a decent win to show for it. Kind of like a normal year, eh?

Now, beneath the surface we know the real story. The Gophers almost gave one up to Nebraska-Omaha, were outplayed end-to-end by Tubby Smith’s Texas Tech team and barely snuck by a pretty bad Missouri State team. So it’s not like we’re lacing up our Final Four sneakers or anything.

BUT. They also looked suspiciously put together against Clemson, took Temple to the final couple minutes and genuinely haven’t sucked yet this season. All I’m saying, you guys, is they’re a winnable neutral-site Oklahoma State game away from conceivably going 10-2 in the non-conference season. That would be an unbelievable start for this team.

I guess this is what passes for optimism these days. Not sucking.

GOOD
: Jordan Murphy is actually really frickin’ good.

So, we all know the story. The Gophers have four true freshmen on the team and they’re all going to be good someday, yadda yadda. Yeah. Wake me up when they’ve arrived, right?

Well, it really looks like one of them already has. We all thought it was going to be Kevin Dorsey, the four-star recruit who was supposed to start out of the gate and provide some lighting in a bottle. He’s been doing his best DeAndre Mathieu impression so far this season (i.e., playing just a little too fast for his own good), so we’re still waiting for his coming out party.

Instead, we’ve been treated to Jordan Murphy, who came in a little under the radar. Originally recruited by Shaka Smart at VCU, he opened up his recruiting after Smart left for Texas and quickly turned to Minnesota. The beginning of the season was fairly innocuous, though he showed flashes of the versatility that made him such an attractive recruit in the first place. But it’s been his last two games that have really stood out, capped by a 24-point, 10-rebound night against Clemson on national television, which really got folks buzzing.

Now, is he a savior? Not yet. But when’s the last time a true Gopher freshman scored 24 points and paired it with 10 rebounds within his first 10 games? That’s exciting stuff for a team desperately seeking go-to guys and a foundation for the next few years. The next few games will be quite telling in the Murphy trend/mirage department.

BAD: We have no rebounding; and it doesn’t look like it’s getting any better

Size and strength were never going to be cornerstones of the 2015-16 Gopher squad. But really, did you expect it to be this bad?

248th – that’s currently where the Gophers check in nationally when it comes to rebounds per game. Minnesota had limited firepower down low to begin with, but Gaston Diedhiou, a guy who was expected to shoulder at least SOME of the load, has basically been AWOL, Bakary Konate is still a foul machine and, well, that’s really the extent of their size. Joey King isn’t a banger, and as much as you’d love to see Charles Buggs down low, that’s just not going to happen.

Murphy has done an admirable job filling in for Diedhiou, but the reality we’re quickly coming to grips with is we just literally don’t have the size to pull down rebounds or hang with some big dudes. Jake White from Omaha had a field day, and Jaron Blossomgame from Clemson, for instance, scored at will near the bucket.

Going forward, shooting around 50% from the field like they did their past two games isn’t going to be sustainable, and it’s the second chance points that teams like Texas Tech and Temple feasted on that will really cause problems. The question is, do they even have the personnel to do anything about it? It’s not looking good.

INTERESTING: The Gophers have 2nd longest home non-conference winning streak in the nation

One fun stat that came out of the ESPN2 broadcast during the Clemson game was a relatively dubious distinction the Gophers currently have, which is owning the second-longest winning streak at home against non-conference teams, a streak now at an unbelievable 47 games. That’s five years worth of games!

I say dubious because the Gophers have garnered the local reputation of playing nobodies at home and feasting on the likes of Coastal Carolina, but it’s still impressive nonetheless, simply considering the law of averages. For those wondering, they last lost to Virginia at home in 2010 during the B1G/ACC Challenge.

Duke currently owns the longest streak at a staggering 120 games in a row.
 

just plain fun to watch and partly because my expectations are fairly neutral this year. Also like all the freshman minutes whatever madness they bring at times.
 

I have a feeling that the bi-polar personality of GH will soon take over this thread and turn it into All Things Bad.

Thanks for the write up, Zips.
 

Who have we played at home in the 47 games? We play in a decent tourney like PR Tipoff, but no big names for NC at home.
 

Who have we played at home in the 47 games? We play in a decent tourney like PR Tipoff, but no big names for NC at home.

We played against Florida St(9-9 in acc and just missed NCAA tournament) in 2013-2014, in 2012-2013 we played a middle of the A10 richmond team. 2011-2012 we played a really bad Va Tech team. So yeah, nobody. I think it might be tough to schedule a team like Pittsburgh as a home and home as not to many teams, of that not quite greatness caliber, want to come into the barn if they can avoid it.
 


I was floored when I saw that stat the other night while watching the game. Sure some (most?) of the non-conference home games have been cupcakes but it's still a great statistic! Only one other team in the country can say they have a better non-conference home record streak and that's Duke. DUKE! Let's take the positive with this one. Pretty freaking awesome!
 

The non-conference home winning streak

Last Home Non-Conference Loss (Nov. 29, 2010): Virginia (114) -- Power 6

Opponents' listed in order of final (or current) RPI.

47 Consecutive Wins
1. South Dakota State (43) – NCAA qualifier
2. Florida State (54) – Power 6
3. South Dakota State (62) – NCAA qualifier
4. North Dakota State (75)
5. Bucknell (89)
6. Richmond (91)
7. **Louisiana Monroe (99)
8. **Kansas City (103)
9. Tennessee State (105)
10. Akron (107) – NCAA qualifier
11. Fairfield (115)
12. Virginia Tech (116) – Power 6
13. Western Kentucky (117)
14. South Dakota State (138)
15. NC Wilmington (146)
16. Lafayette (153)
17. Wofford (153) – NCAA qualifier
18. Montana (183)
19. North Dakota State (183)
20. South Dakota State (183)
21. Toledo (194)
22. Coastal Carolina (196) – NCAA qualifier
23. Cornell (210)
24. **Clemson (212) -- Power 6
25. Omaha (219)
26. Western Carolina (221)
27. North Florida (229)
28. Southern (229)
29. Lehigh (236)
30. **Omaha (242)
31. Texas A&M Corpus Christi (248)
32. Appalachian State (258)
33. New Orleans (260)
34. Eastern Kentucky (262)
35. USC (270) – Power 6
36. American (277)
37. Central Michigan (280)
38. Seattle (280)
39. Mount Saint Mary’s (292)
40. Furman (293)
41. Saint Peter’s (305)
42. North Dakota (310)
43. UMBC (346)
44. Franklin Pierce (351) -- non-Division I

2013-14 Postseason NIT (RPI irrelevant)
45. High Point
46. Saint Mary's
47. Southern Miss
 

Yeah, if we hadn't lost that Virginia game, our streak would be at 68.
 

Last Home Non-Conference Loss (Nov. 29, 2010): Virginia (114) -- Power 6

Opponents' listed in order of final (or current) RPI.

47 Consecutive Wins
1. South Dakota State (43) – NCAA qualifier
2. Florida State (54) – Power 6
3. South Dakota State (62) – NCAA qualifier
4. North Dakota State (75)
5. Bucknell (89)
6. Richmond (91)
7. **Louisiana Monroe (99)
8. **Kansas City (103)
9. Tennessee State (105)
10. Akron (107) – NCAA qualifier
11. Fairfield (115)
12. Virginia Tech (116) – Power 6
13. Western Kentucky (117)
14. South Dakota State (138)
15. NC Wilmington (146)
16. Lafayette (153)
17. Wofford (153) – NCAA qualifier
18. Montana (183)
19. North Dakota State (183)
20. South Dakota State (183)
21. Toledo (194)
22. Coastal Carolina (196) – NCAA qualifier
23. Cornell (210)
24. **Clemson (212) -- Power 6
25. Omaha (219)
26. Western Carolina (221)
27. North Florida (229)
28. Southern (229)
29. Lehigh (236)
30. **Omaha (242)
31. Texas A&M Corpus Christi (248)
32. Appalachian State (258)
33. New Orleans (260)
34. Eastern Kentucky (262)
35. USC (270) – Power 6
36. American (277)
37. Central Michigan (280)
38. Seattle (280)
39. Mount Saint Mary’s (292)
40. Furman (293)
41. Saint Peter’s (305)
42. North Dakota (310)
43. UMBC (346)
44. Franklin Pierce (351) -- non-Division I

2013-14 Postseason NIT (RPI irrelevant)
45. High Point
46. Saint Mary's
47. Southern Miss

In terms of final RPI, five of the bottom seven were played last season. That really was a stinky non-conference home lineup.

Using current RPI is a bit troublesome. I don't expect Clemson to finish lower in RPI than UMKC or UL-Monroe. Looks like we scheduled a fair number of teams ranking between 100-200 in past. That's probably a good strategy. Throw a team or two in the top 100, play a holiday tournament, and limit the sub-200 teams to no more than two (three tops) and we're probably good. Sort of what we seem to be doing this year.
 



good read zips. would be huge to get that okie state win. that and clemson would be solid!
 

The Good, The Bad and The Interesting: The Hey We Don't Suck Edition
By ZipsOfAkron

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/585396?referrer_id=


BAD: We have no rebounding; and it doesn’t look like it’s getting any better

Forgot one that is just as bad (maybe worse): We rank in the 300s in 3 point field goal defense. Texas Tech has shot over 30% in only 2 of their 6 games this season but they shot 50% against us. In fact, three teams have shot 50% against us and another shot 43.5%. Three opponents had double digit numbers in three pointers made. One of the most gratifying things about the Clemson win is that it was achieved despite Clemson making 14 threes. We play Indiana twice so I hope we do something different in those games. They've made 86 three pointers in their first 8 games.

As for rebounding, we had been out rebounded in every game this year until Clemson, but we did manage to out rebound Clemson by 7.
 

Forgot one that is just as bad (maybe worse): We rank in the 300s in 3 point field goal defense. Texas Tech has shot over 30% in only 2 of their 6 games this season but they shot 50% against us. In fact, three teams have shot 50% against us and another shot 43.5%. Three opponents had double digit numbers in three pointers made. One of the most gratifying things about the Clemson win is that it was achieved despite Clemson making 14 threes. We play Indiana twice so I hope we do something different in those games. They've made 86 three pointers in their first 8 games.

As for rebounding, we had been out rebounded in every game this year until Clemson, but we did manage to out rebound Clemson by 7.

it seems like no matter who our coach is, we defend the 3 very poorly
 

it seems like no matter who our coach is, we defend the 3 very poorly

If we had any three point defense, we would have beaten Virginia and this great streak would be even better.

Seems like with guards with better quickness, three point defense would be better, but not so just yet. On paper, with bad three point defense and bad rebounding, that might be the worst possible defensive combination.

Great read, Zips, but I might disagree on the "bad loss" assessment. Texas Tech is not a good team and that may end up being a below 100 RPI loss and "bad."
 



it seems like no matter who our coach is, we defend the 3 very poorly

Opponent three point percentage from Tubby's first year through last year.

2007-08 88th 33.6%
2008-09 247th 35.5%
2009-10 169th 34.1%
2010-11 177th 34.6%
2011-12 185th 34.6%
2012-13 170th 33.9%
2013-14 170th 34.4%
2014-15 287th 36.8%

Somewhat remarkable consistency from Tubby's third year through Pitino's first year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/opponent-three-point-pct?date=2015-04-06

Although I have to question somewhat how much these stats say about how well a team defends three pointers, because I think good 3 point defense is based more on keeping opponents from shooting 3's because the perimeter is well guarded and every potential 3 point shooter has a defender in his face, as opposed to having teams make a low percentage of the 3's they take.

We rank in the 200's in most of these years for opponent 3's attempted, and 342 out of 345 in 2010-11 (but #3 in opponent two point percentage), where being ranked #1 means you had the fewest 3 pointers attempted against you. Part of this could be due to Tubby's affinity for big men, making it tough for opponents to score inside. We were top 60 in the country for Tubby's first 4 years for opponent two point percentage, and have recently fallen to around 100. So it seems fair to say that we've prioritized protecting the paint more than the perimeter.
 

If we had any three point defense, we would have beaten Virginia and this great streak would be even better.

Seems like with guards with better quickness, three point defense would be better, but not so just yet. On paper, with bad three point defense and bad rebounding, that might be the worst possible defensive combination.

Great read, Zips, but I might disagree on the "bad loss" assessment. Texas Tech is not a good team and that may end up being a below 100 RPI loss and "bad."

Certainly not always the case - but being poor at rebounding can contribute to defending the 3 poorly and vice versa.
 

If we had any three point defense, we would have beaten Virginia and this great streak would be even better.

I remember that game....wasn't Virginia 13-19 from 3 or something ridiculous?

Just looked it up...they were 10-13. I guess I was close?
 


In terms of final RPI, five of the bottom seven were played last season. That really was a stinky non-conference home lineup.

Using current RPI is a bit troublesome. I don't expect Clemson to finish lower in RPI than UMKC or UL-Monroe. Looks like we scheduled a fair number of teams ranking between 100-200 in past. That's probably a good strategy. Throw a team or two in the top 100, play a holiday tournament, and limit the sub-200 teams to no more than two (three tops) and we're probably good. Sort of what we seem to be doing this year.

Yep, I threw in the current RPIs of the teams we've played this season just to put a number by their name. I think ULM might have a pretty decent chance of staying in the top 100? They knocked off the preseason Sun Belt favorite (UL-Lafayette) last night.
 

Here's a 'good' that's been on my mind since the Clemson game:

Inbounding the ball at crunch time.

Did anyone else see how well we did at NOT turning over the ball? How even when fouled Dorsey maintained control of the ball? We're all excited about Murphy (as we should be), but I don't want to think about all the times a game slipped away because we couldn't stand the fullcourt pressure at the end and get the damn ball in (I'll spare you particular reminders). Our 4 star recruit has impressed me - Dorsey is going to be really good, and 3 years playing with Mason...well, I look forward to seeing him over the next few games because I think he's going to have a big game soon.
 

Thanks for all of the research in to the non-conference win streak SS and others. It's crazy that the streak is near 70 if they don't lose that Virginia game which was one of those strange losses where we seemed in total control for awhile and then just went in the tank.

I enjoyed the piece, but I am certainly not ready to say the Gophers are above the "suck" level...that loss to Texas Tech and much of the Missouri State game is enough ammunition for me to believe this team could still lose a lot of games. The rebounding stats are interesting in that they are so bad, you wonder if the team is just better off going really small with a more polished player in the lineup and trying to create mismatches on the other end of the court. Given that Barkary is improving, I think I'd still run him out there with the long term future of the team being the focus.

Great stuff on the 3 point defense in this thread Cayman. Was the year the Gophers gave up close to the most 3 attempts in the nation, the year they went zone paying both Colton and Ralph in a 2-3? I remember Colton having to get out and guard a corner and really struggling to do so (understandably so). Hopefully, at some point we will have a team and/or defensive concept that defends the 3 better.
 

it seems like no matter who our coach is, we defend the 3 very poorly

The Ghost of Gangelhoff at work. Her favorite is the near-half court shot right before half time.
 

Cool to see how the % is all within ~3%, but the ranking changes 200 places. Thanks.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

Good article. Too bad the local writers can't write something reasonable like this
 

I remember that game....wasn't Virginia 13-19 from 3 or something ridiculous?

Just looked it up...they were 10-13. I guess I was close?

It seemed like they were 49-50 and that Farrakhan's grandson hit about 25 in a row. He looked like an NBA all star that night.

Forgive the digression, is it me or does it seem like all of our sports teams lead the country in nondescript opposing players having career or at least season best games against us? It seems like every month there is a nobody who is never to be heard from again (unless we trade for him) who goes off against one of our teams.
 

it seems like no matter who our coach is, we defend the 3 very poorly

It also seems like no matter who our coach is we mostly run a perimeter weave and are allergic to back door cuts.
 

Here's a 'good' that's been on my mind since the Clemson game:

Inbounding the ball at crunch time.

Did anyone else see how well we did at NOT turning over the ball? How even when fouled Dorsey maintained control of the ball? We're all excited about Murphy (as we should be), but I don't want to think about all the times a game slipped away because we couldn't stand the fullcourt pressure at the end and get the damn ball in (I'll spare you particular reminders). Our 4 star recruit has impressed me - Dorsey is going to be really good, and 3 years playing with Mason...well, I look forward to seeing him over the next few games because I think he's going to have a big game soon.

This is an interesting point and something I've noticed as well. At least by using the eye test, "dumb" turnovers really seem to be down this year, which is curious considering how young the team is and how early on we are in the season. In fact, the Gophers are currently third among conference teams in turnover margin, which is something.

Also, free throw percentage is way up, which should heal some ulcers.
 

In all these years of watching Gophs get torched behind the arc I've always wondered about this- is our perimeter d that bad, or are there some strange mystical forces at work guiding these opposing players shots in that are coming into the game sporting a 27% average and suddenly go 4-6... There must be some advanced analytics that could illuminate this enigma (or maybe our perimeter d just sucks that bad year over year).
 

when you lose to something called south dakota at home,,, we suck
 

when you lose to something called south dakota at home,,, we suck

There is plenty of irony in the title of this thread and how they played today, that's for sure.
 

I have a feeling that the bi-polar personality of GH will soon take over this thread and turn it into All Things Bad.

Thanks for the write up, Zips.

Didn't take very long.
 




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