The Elephant in the Room

Killjoy

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I am starting this string because of hwayman's comment in another string that "We won't have any trouble with our scholarship numbers. Between graduation and transfers out, Kill will be able to scholarship guys like Botticelli and other PWO's."

I have found it quite interesting that nobody seems to be concerned that we presently have 22 verbals with several more offers outstanding and yet we have only 14 seniors on scholarships leaving (It may be only 13 if Troy Stoudermire receives another year because of his injury). I also estimate that we have one or two unfilled scholarships to add to this pool. Therefore, if all the 2012 verbals commit, we would need 6 more scholarships than we have to meet our obligation.

First, there are several things that could impact this. One that I believe is that a lot of people were assuming is that there would be several academic causalities since Jerry Kill had indicated that this was a distinct possibility. He is now saying that things are looking better but we won’t know until we know.

Second, Jerry Kill has also indicated that he would expect some significant number of players to transfer for a variety of reasons. I think he might have said it could be up to ten. It is often the case with a new coach and program that this happens but again we don’t know if this will be the case here. Given Coach Kills proclivity to lower expectations I can’t help but wonder if Coach Kill is giving us the worst case here.

Third, Jerry Kill has pointed out often that you don’t how many verbals will actually commit on national signing day which is certainly true.

Fourth, we don’t know how many recruits won't meet the admission requirements. From past experience at the U we know that this has been a problem for some of the verbals.

Fifth, we don’t know if it is Jerry Kill's plans to “Gray Shirt” some of the commits. I have no idea if this is Jerry's plan. This doesn’t sound like Jerry Kill but I certain can’t say that he wouldn’t do it.

In addition, is Jerry going to use the 2012 class to even out the imbalances among the other classes?

I have found that everything that Jerry does is well thought out and is based on years of experience. Therefore it has not been hard to understand either his words or his actions. This includes what kind of recruits he wants. He has made it very clear that he wants them to be athletic, fast, team not ego oriented, a player that won’t quite i.e. mentally tough, and that they want to be at the University of Minnesota. He also has made it clear that that he doesn't pay atention to the ranking services either.

My problem is that up until now I could see the whats, the hows and why of what Jerry was doing. The one thing I can’t figure out though is how is Jerry going to make everything balance out? Will he end up with the right number and kind of recruits that he is planning to have? It is a mystery to me but it should be very interesting to see how he does it.
 

Of all the things I doubt about this coaching staff the ability to have the correct number of guys on scholarship is not one of them.
 

I have found it quite interesting that nobody seems to be concerned that we presently have 22 verbals with several more offers outstanding and yet we have only 14 seniors on scholarships leaving.

There are 16 seniors on scholarship.

Therefore, if all the 2012 verbals commit, we would need 6 more scholarships than we have to meet our obligation.

That's assuming we are currently at the 85 scholarship limit. We aren't. There are plenty of available rides even without some of the expected attrition.
 

You missed the point

Of all the things I doubt about this coaching staff the ability to have the correct number of guys on scholarship is not one of them.

Of course they will get to the right number or even possible less. The rules even allow for over signing which I didn't want to get into. The point is how they get there and manage the process is extremly difficult and challanging. Especially when you are trying to achieve multiple goals that can be inconflict with each other. I personally find this subject a lot more interesting than some of the pissing matches that take place here but to each his own.
 

Just another reason why this offseason will be so intriguing.

I expect Kill and his staff already know who is leaving, they know what their grades will be when they leave, and what the APR hit will be.
They know what positions they can count on being bolstered by incoming recruits and redshirts, and which they need to find JUCO help for.

We'll get the picture next spring when the kids hit the field and show who has developed, who is impressing, why we signed a JUCO at X position, why we didn't at Y.

Just hope for a solid class, defections to be non-impactful, and APR hits to be at a minimum.
 


Kill will almost certainly sign 25 players for the class. I'm not sure there will need to be a bunch of guys leaving in order to accomplish that. There are scholarships open.
 

Scholarship Number

There are 16 seniors on scholarship.



That's assuming we are currently at the 85 scholarship limit. We aren't. There are plenty of available rides even without some of the expected attrition.

Getting the correct number can be difficult. There is no official source that I know of but the scholarship grid at GopherHole shows 16. I believe but cannot say for sure that grid is missing at least two walk on scholarships that Kill handed out recently.

But your point is a good one that there are additional scholarships available. The question is how many. Using the numbers I have don't support your statement that "There are plenty of available rides even without some of the expected attritio." It also appears that Kill is still is giving out offers. If anybody knows where "official" numbers are available I would appreciate knowing where the site is.
 

There are a handful of guys who are still officially part of the team. I am not going to speculate and monger rumors, but just look at the roster, look at players who aren't playing at all (even on special teams), especially those positions which are positions that we are thin. There are about 5-7 guys who their lack of any playing time should make you think twice. I have no inside info and i'm not really looking to speculate about who those players might be (just because it's just a WAG and rumors of kids failing out who aren't failing out, is just wrong).

I'd expect a full class this season. I would also expect us to be able to oversign a couple players and count them towards last year's class (these will probably be the JuCo players who are December grads).
 

I would imagine they will sign the full 28 and count 3 back to the previous class. We signed 25 last year, and with Jones, Harris, and Campion all here for spring ball, they should count back to the 2010 class and leave room for 3 from this year to count back for 2011. We will have several from this year's class here for spring ball, including at least Nelson, Leidner, Fruechte, Stokes, and Shabazz (assuming a forthcoming commit) and any 3 of those could be used to fill the 25 counters from 2011. We currently have 22 commits, and I would expect both Stokes and Shabazz to commit, meaning 24 spots accounted for with 4 remaining. I'd love to see Harden and Sam Lee take two of those spots, and leave the last two for some studs and/or under-the-radar types that Kill has up his sleeve.
 



About your point about "gray shirting", don't be surprised to see this technique a bit more. I don't know if that will be this season, however, Bjorklund was a kid was planning on gray shirting last season (until the last minute). It's a smart move for the kids who are a right fit.
 

Show me the math

Kill will almost certainly sign 25 players for the class. I'm not sure there will need to be a bunch of guys leaving in order to accomplish that. There are scholarships open.

I hope you are right but given the reality that people throw out all kinds of things as facts here that aren't, it would be helpful to know exactly how you arrived at your conclusion. Sorry about this but dpodoll has taught me that there is a lot of false statements made here. All kidding aside, I would be very interested in how you arrived at your conclusions.
 

Good Point

There are a handful of guys who are still officially part of the team. I am not going to speculate and monger rumors, but just look at the roster, look at players who aren't playing at all (even on special teams), especially those positions which are positions that we are thin. There are about 5-7 guys who their lack of any playing time should make you think twice. I have no inside info and i'm not really looking to speculate about who those players might be (just because it's just a WAG and rumors of kids failing out who aren't failing out, is just wrong).

I'd expect a full class this season. I would also expect us to be able to oversign a couple players and count them towards last year's class (these will probably be the JuCo players who are December grads).

I appreciate peoples thought on this topic. People seem to be quite comfortable here that there isn't a problem. I also would like to be one of them but I haven't been able to get my head around this topic to feel as comfortable as the rest of you seem to be. Bob's comments may be one of the many variables that will allow this thing to resolve itself.
 

I hope you are right but given the reality that people throw out all kinds of things as facts here that aren't, it would be helpful to know exactly how you arrived at your conclusion. Sorry about this but dpodoll has taught me that there is a lot of false statements made here. All kidding aside, I would be very interested in how you arrived at your conclusions.

Not saying we won't need to have a few guys leave. Just saying it won't have to be a mass exodus of 8 or 10 players. I think in addition to the 16 seniors who leave there are 5-6 open scholarships right now, so that gets you to 21-22 availabilities. You count a few of the new signees to last year and you can get to 25 ok. If we oversign and give a couple of walkon players rides, then you will need a few guys to leave (which a few will). I just don't think there will be a need to see tons of guys go (although that's not to say it won't happen).
 



I would imagine they will sign the full 28 and count 3 back to the previous class. We signed 25 last year, and with Jones, Harris, and Campion all here for spring ball, they should count back to the 2010 class and leave room for 3 from this year to count back for 2011. We will have several from this year's class here for spring ball, including at least Nelson, Leidner, Fruechte, Stokes, and Shabazz (assuming a forthcoming commit) and any 3 of those could be used to fill the 25 counters from 2011. We currently have 22 commits, and I would expect both Stokes and Shabazz to commit, meaning 24 spots accounted for with 4 remaining. I'd love to see Harden and Sam Lee take two of those spots, and leave the last two for some studs and/or under-the-radar types that Kill has up his sleeve.

This is pretty much how I expect it to play out too.
QB-Nelson, Leidner 2-2
RB-Gillum(JUCO), R. Williams 2-4
H-back- M. Williams, Hinds 2-6
WR- Harbison, Fruechte(JUCO) 2-8
OT-Pirsig 1-9
OG-Hayes 1-10
DE-Ekpe(DT), Morris(LB), Davis(LB) 3-13
DT-Hinjosa 1-14
OLB- Lynn, Nicholson, Ballestros, Rallis, 4-18
CB- Murray, Hills, Moss 3-21
S-Baltazar(JUCO) 1-22

6 spots for later additions, I'd love to get 2 more JUCO secondary kids in here to stabilize the defense until some of the young 'uns develop.
 

I will make a bet that at least two of the above listed recruits do not sign with us. I have zero insider information, but that is just the way it usually goes. Also, Kill mentioned that the recruiting site information isn't exactly correct, so who knows what he actually has.
 

Why There Could Be A Problem

Below is my analysis of the maximun number of scholarship players that could be retrurning in 2012. It includes Troy Stoudermire and two walks whose names I do not know but have heard received scholarships. Based on this we would be limited to 18 new scholarships in 2012. I am sure we will have more than that but how many more is not known.

Seniors = 1 (Troy Troy Stoudermire)
Juniors = 12
Sophomores = 16
Freshmen = 25
Red Shirt Freshmen = 11
Walk on Scholarship Players = 2

Total Potential Returning Scholarship Players = 67
Maximum Number of Scholarship Players = 85
Potential Minimum Number of New Scholarship Players = 18
 

There were some departures after Coach Kills arrival. Guys like Edwards, Eure, Ragoo. Not sure about Allen. What about the DB that left (Tillman?)

Have those of you that are counting scholarships adding them into the mix of available scholarships for 2012? Are these amongst the number of "open" scholarships that tjgopher is referring to?
 

My original comment (different thread) is based on my belief that up to 10 players will transfer after this season. I think you can go through the roster, see who's not playing, and probably why, and figure it out. Just an opinion, but an educated one...
 


Bayfield

There were some departures after Coach Kills arrival. Guys like Edwards, Eure, Ragoo. Not sure about Allen. What about the DB that left (Tillman?)

Have those of you that are counting scholarships adding them into the mix of available scholarships for 2012? Are these amongst the number of "open" scholarships that tjgopher is referring to?

My analyis included all the factors you have mentioned. It is hard to get a completly accurate number but the number of unused scholarships is less than a handful and maybe no more than two.
 



From Nadines Tally of Coach Kill's press conference notes today.
"There's a lot of good things going on right now. I can't talk a lot about it, because a lot of it deals with recruiting."

Its mid-November, recruiting will pick up and offered players will decide soon. Plus it sounds as if there will be some early de-committs or offers pulled coming on down the pike.

This makes some sense to me since, as a newbie, Coach Kill lacked sufficient knowledge of what he had with the current roster. It doesn't surprise me that some of the offers were conditional based on the performance of players during their Sr. year and what Coach Kill needs after watching his team play out the season.

I need to find my eraser.
 

I would imagine they will sign the full 28 and count 3 back to the previous class. We signed 25 last year, and with Jones, Harris, and Campion all here for spring ball, they should count back to the 2010 class and leave room for 3 from this year to count back for 2011. We will have several from this year's class here for spring ball, including at least Nelson, Leidner, Fruechte, Stokes, and Shabazz (assuming a forthcoming commit) and any 3 of those could be used to fill the 25 counters from 2011. We currently have 22 commits, and I would expect both Stokes and Shabazz to commit, meaning 24 spots accounted for with 4 remaining. I'd love to see Harden and Sam Lee take two of those spots, and leave the last two for some studs and/or under-the-radar types that Kill has up his sleeve.

Sign me up for Will Johnson.
 

MV's article is very interesting, it basically shakes the current recruiting class up in my mind. Alot of it makes sense.

I know alot of starchasers aren't intrigued with Kill's class up to this point, but if things get shaken up like MV thinks it might, we could be in for a very interesting offseason. Add in the late signees Kill's already shown he will go after, and Grayshirt/walk on potential with scholarships to give out. Could be alot of different guys in the mix until it settles out into the fall camp roster.
 

Let things play out. I'm not worried about the recruiting, besides keeping the best players in-state in the state. Outside of that I'll wait and see. As long as they can play on Saturday, that's all I'll care about.
 

Kill just said yesterday in his presser not to believe all of the commits they have received. We don't actually know what the correct number is.
 


What is scary about MV's article? There are a lot of moving parts and I expect there will be movement right up to signing day. This is Kill's first go-round at a BCS school so it's all new to him and we don't know his pattern (heck, he might not know his pattern given this is the first time he's recruited at this level).

I had one thought about Kill's academic push and that's making sure that the kids who transfer are in good standing academically so we won't get an APR hit if they do change schools.
 

What is scary about MV's article? There are a lot of moving parts and I expect there will be movement right up to signing day. This is Kill's first go-round at a BCS school so it's all new to him and we don't know his pattern (heck, he might not know his pattern given this is the first time he's recruited at this level).

I had one thought about Kill's academic push and that's making sure that the kids who transfer are in good standing academically so we won't get an APR hit if they do change schools.

You got it.
The checking on 60 something guys to make sure they're going to class is probably more about limiting APR hits than anything. If guys know they are transferring, Kill wants to make sure the program doesn't suffer for it.

There's nothing scary about MV's article, other than Harbison possibly not being solid.
If anything the coaches went about this the right way when considering their recruiting style of using high school contacts and heavy evaluations, they got a late start, now they have senior year film to look at and better academic pictures. I fully expect a few really nice players to be "found" and JUCOs to be recruited to maximize their impact.
 




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