The Data Behind Kill and Fleck Two Years In

[GopherWeatherGuy]

If you're going to include Marquis Gray in the 2012 QB list then you should have Seth Green in your 2018 list because he's played the position as much if not more now than Marquis did in 2012.

That's not true.

Gray 2012: Passing - 59 attempts for 472 yards and 5 TDs. Rushing - 72 attempts for 390 yards and 5 TDs.
Green 2018: Passing - 3 attempts for 23 yards and 1 TD. Rushing - 44 attempts for 146 yards and 7 TDs.

 

[37score]

Two freshman quarterbacks? Don't forget Croft and Green. They were both on the roster when Fleck inherited it.

I'm comparing rosters (per the title) at the start of the second year.
Croft is not on the roster.

In my comments, I didn't include Green which I could.

But even with that said, the quantity of talent far favors Kills in a pure depth standpoint.
One could argue the talent levels were very similar and I'd have no issue with that.
But the lack of depth is apparent just in the number differences.

(Especially at DB, OL, DL).

There is simply upperclassmen players now than Kill had in 2012.

 

[caliGopher]

I'm sorry you feel like two freshman QB's is a safer bet than:

2012
Gray, MarQueis SrQB
Leidner, Mitch FrQB
Nelson, Philip FrQB
Shortell, Max SoQB

Please explain where I lied.

I dd not say I disagreed with you assessment on QBs. That said, Gray wasn't exactly like having Peyton Manning on the roster (note: stats are what was on GopherSports' roster pages):

Starting QBs - Advantage Kill
Kill MarQueis Gray 0.9143 2009 QB JR Appeared in 11 games, 1,495 yds, 8 TDs, 10 INTs
Fleck Demry Croft 0.8531 2016 QB R. SO Played in 9 games, started 6, 41.5% Completion 674 yards, 4 touchdowns, 79 rushes, 311 yards .

Here's where you lied:

Of the four classes that Kill inherited from Brewster, he had 48 kids on the roster, 48.5% of the players he inherited.
Of the four classes that Fleck inherited from Kill, he had 47 kids on the roster, 56.5% of the recruited players he inherited.

You and several others like to look at Brewster's class rankings and state emphatically Kill inherited better talent.

Taking the 247 score for the remaining players shows the following in terms of talent:

Kill inherited

Sum total of player rankings Kill had on the team from Brewster's recruits year 1: 39.7553, 48 players
Sum total of player rankings Fleck had on the team from Kill/Claey's recruits year 1: 39.1187, 47 players

average rating of the recruited players on the roster (and mind you some of the ones on Kill inherited list were walk ons):

Kill: .8282
Fleck: .8323

So the had essentially the same number of players inherited, with roughly the same "talent" level, although on average, Fleck inherited better talent.

Another place you have used flawed statistical analysis repeatedly, which is the third type of lie.. Looking at only the aggregate of the defensive points per game statistics and loudly proclaiming: They are the same!

Here's a real look at the data vs. a ball washing (Data through the Indiana game this year, and is apples to apples - it compares Kill's results through 20 games to Fleck's results through 20 games):

Average Points per game:

Kill: 2011, 31.7; 2012, 23.1
Fleck: 2017, 22.8; 2018 28.9

Kill, 11 Non-Conf, 26.8; 12 non-conf, 16.8
Fleck, 17 non-conf, 8.0; 18 non-conf 9.0

Kill 11 Big Ten, 34.1; 12 Big Ten 29.5
Fleck 17 Big Ten, 27.4; 18 Big Ten 40.5

The data shows that year one under Kill, our defense was much worse than Fleck's year one. However, Kill's defense improved significantly in year 2 as measured by average points allowed by 26.97% while Fleck's teams performance was worse by 26.46% in year two. This helps to explain the relatively flat comparison when taken in aggregate and why further diving in to numbers is always a good idea.

When looking at Non-conf numbers, Kill's teams improved significantly in year 2, improving by 37.38%. Fleck's teams were worse by 13%. It's important to note that while a significant percentage decrease in performance, Fleck's delta was only 1.0 points per game. When starting off as low as they did, the percentage can be misleading.

It's in the Big Ten where the data really shows a difference in trend. Kill's teams improved by 13.55%. Fleck's teams have regressed by 46.88% giving up 13 more points per game in year 2.

So, yeah. The same.

More to come.

 

[builtbadgers]

So someone tell me exactly what Kill won here in the entire time he was here. It is like those blowing the Pitino horn. Exactly what has he won in 5 years ? Please do not say the NIT ! I like Kill as a person but the reality is he did not get the job done.

 

[37score]

I dd not say I disagreed with you assessment on QBs. That said, Gray wasn't exactly like having Peyton Manning on the roster (note: stats are what was on GopherSports' roster pages):

Starting QBs - Advantage Kill
Kill MarQueis Gray 0.9143 2009 QB JR Appeared in 11 games, 1,495 yds, 8 TDs, 10 INTs
Fleck Demry Croft 0.8531 2016 QB R. SO Played in 9 games, started 6, 41.5% Completion 674 yards, 4 touchdowns, 79 rushes, 311 yards .

Here's where you lied:

Of the four classes that Kill inherited from Brewster, he had 48 kids on the roster, 48.5% of the players he inherited.
Of the four classes that Fleck inherited from Kill, he had 47 kids on the roster, 56.5% of the recruited players he inherited.

You and several others like to look at Brewster's class rankings and state emphatically Kill inherited better talent.

Taking the 247 score for the remaining players shows the following in terms of talent:

Kill inherited

Sum total of player rankings Kill had on the team from Brewster's recruits year 1: 39.7553, 48 players
Sum total of player rankings Fleck had on the team from Kill/Claey's recruits year 1: 39.1187, 47 players

average rating of the recruited players on the roster (and mind you some of the ones on Kill inherited list were walk ons):

Kill: .8282
Fleck: .8323

So the had essentially the same number of players inherited, with roughly the same "talent" level, although on average, Fleck inherited better talent.

Another place you have used flawed statistical analysis repeatedly, which is the third type of lie.. Looking at only the aggregate of the defensive points per game statistics and loudly proclaiming: They are the same!

Here's a real look at the data vs. a ball washing (Data through the Indiana game this year, and is apples to apples - it compares Kill's results through 20 games to Fleck's results through 20 games):

Average Points per game:

Kill: 2011, 31.7; 2012, 23.1
Fleck: 2017, 22.8; 2018 28.9

Kill, 11 Non-Conf, 26.8; 12 non-conf, 16.8
Fleck, 17 non-conf, 8.0; 18 non-conf 9.0

Kill 11 Big Ten, 34.1; 12 Big Ten 29.5
Fleck 17 Big Ten, 27.4; 18 Big Ten 40.5

The data shows that year one under Kill, our defense was much worse than Fleck's year one. However, Kill's defense improved significantly in year 2 as measured by average points allowed by 26.97% while Fleck's teams performance was worse by 26.46% in year two. This helps to explain the relatively flat comparison when taken in aggregate and why further diving in to numbers is always a good idea.

When looking at Non-conf numbers, Kill's teams improved significantly in year 2, improving by 37.38%. Fleck's teams were worse by 13%. It's important to note that while a significant percentage decrease in performance, Fleck's delta was only 1.0 points per game. When starting off as low as they did, the percentage can be misleading.

It's in the Big Ten where the data really shows a difference in trend. Kill's teams improved by 13.55%. Fleck's teams have regressed by 46.88% giving up 13 more points per game in year 2.

So, yeah. The same.

More to come.

So the talent is essentially the same?

 

[37score]

So someone tell me exactly what Kill won here in the entire time he was here. It is like those blowing the Pitino horn. Exactly what has he won in 5 years ? Please do not say the NIT ! I like Kill as a person but the reality is he did not get the job done.

Here are our top 40 wins (By end of Season Sagarin Ratings since most didn't hit AP top 25)

Year Opp Sag Coach
2010 Iowa 21 Horton
2014 Nebraska 29 Kill
2016 Washington State 34 Claeys
2009 Air Force 35 Brewster
2016 Northwestern 35 Claeys
2012 Syracuse 38 Kill
2013 Nebraska 38 Kill
2010 Illinois 39 Horton

We had all of these wins and more.

 

[Mulligan]

So someone tell me exactly what Kill won here in the entire time he was here. It is like those blowing the Pitino horn. Exactly what has he won in 5 years ? Please do not say the NIT ! I like Kill as a person but the reality is he did not get the job done.

A bit harsh, I think. If he didn't have the health problems he very well could have had the program in a solid place. We'll never know, but I was very bummed when he quit because I thought he had us heading in the right direction.

 

[GFBfan]

A bit harsh, I think. If he didn't have the health problems he very well could have had the program in a solid place. We'll never know, but I was very bummed when he quit because I thought he had us heading in the right direction.

He did. Anyone who claims otherwise is a moron.

 

[builtbadgers]

He did. Anyone who claims otherwise is a moron.

So someone who disagrees with you is a moron. Just resorting to name calling. 14-21 in 4 years full, poor quarterbacking. How many rivalry victories. I saw nothing to suggest that we were ever going to step up and equal UW. Like him as a uncle, he knows more football in 10 minutes than i know in 50 years but reality was there was zero recruiting buzz, zero national buzz, little local buzz. It is harder than hell to identify that next great coach in any sport, harder to hire them. It has been 50 years plus since we have unless it is Fleck.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

So someone who disagrees with you is a moron. Just resorting to name calling. 14-21 in 4 years full, poor quarterbacking. How many rivalry victories. I saw nothing to suggest that we were ever going to step up and equal UW. Like him as a uncle, he knows more football in 10 minutes than i know in 50 years but reality was there was zero recruiting buzz, zero national buzz, little local buzz. It is harder than hell to identify that next great coach in any sport, harder to hire them. It has been 50 years plus since we have unless it is Fleck.

If Kill's 8 win seasons weren't an accomplishment, surely Fleck should be exceeding that every year.

 

[CharchyCharch]

So someone tell me exactly what Kill won here in the entire time he was here. It is like those blowing the Pitino horn. Exactly what has he won in 5 years ? Please do not say the NIT ! I like Kill as a person but the reality is he did not get the job done.

Kill was a mediocre qb from having MN win the West. Of course the BT West is a hog trough that Wi feeds on but still Jerry had us close

 

[builtbadgers]

If Kill's 8 win seasons weren't an accomplishment, surely Fleck should be exceeding that every year.

Good year congrats. Lets see in 5 years if Fleck beats UW, does better than 8 wins once, finishes better than 5-3 in the west once. After 5 years we will see if Fleck succeeds. I can not promise you he will but i can promise you Kill did not.

 

[GFBfan]

So someone who disagrees with you is a moron. Just resorting to name calling. 14-21 in 4 years full, poor quarterbacking. How many rivalry victories. I saw nothing to suggest that we were ever going to step up and equal UW. Like him as a uncle, he knows more football in 10 minutes than i know in 50 years but reality was there was zero recruiting buzz, zero national buzz, little local buzz. It is harder than hell to identify that next great coach in any sport, harder to hire them. It has been 50 years plus since we have unless it is Fleck.

Rivalry Victories: Iowa in 2011, Nebraska and Penn State in 2013, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska in 2014. If you don't want to include Neb. and PSU, then he won 3 of 12 as we played I, M and W each year in his first 4. He wasn't involved in the 15 games vs. any of them.
If you saw nothing to suggest we would step up and compete with Wisconsin, then you weren't looking. Yes, we didn't win against them in his time as HC, but each year they were better than the year before against them and in 2014 were only down 3 with over 7 minutes left in the game.
I'm thinking that most people who went to the Citrus Bowl thought he had us on the right path to even more success.

 

[builtbadgers]

Why should the Gophers not expect a Alvarez like career. 1-10, 5-6,5-6 then 10-1 and a Rose Bowl title. Only a couple other.500 type years but 2 more rose bowl wins. That is shooting for the moon but being below average is not acceptable. It is like Pitino in hoops. People act like he is great but 31-59 and a bunch of off court trouble players. He would need to win the conference to even be considered a top 50 coach.

 

[37score]

Rivalry Victories: Iowa in 2011, Nebraska and Penn State in 2013, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska in 2014. If you don't want to include Neb. and PSU, then he won 3 of 12 as we played I, M and W each year in his first 4. He wasn't involved in the 15 games vs. any of them.
If you saw nothing to suggest we would step up and compete with Wisconsin, then you weren't looking. Yes, we didn't win against them in his time as HC, but each year they were better than the year before against them and in 2014 were only down 3 with over 7 minutes left in the game.
I'm thinking that most people who went to the Citrus Bowl thought he had us on the right path to even more success.

If Kill was going to win the West ever, it was going to be in 2016, but Kill had to leave, and that West title wasn't achieved as they lost again that year to Iowa, Wisconsin, as well as Penn State and Nebraska.

 

[builtbadgers]

Rivalry Victories: Iowa in 2011, Nebraska and Penn State in 2013, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska in 2014. If you don't want to include Neb. and PSU, then he won 3 of 12 as we played I, M and W each year in his first 4. He wasn't involved in the 15 games vs. any of them.
If you saw nothing to suggest we would step up and compete with Wisconsin, then you weren't looking. Yes, we didn't win against them in his time as HC, but each year they were better than the year before against them and in 2014 were only down 3 with over 7 minutes left in the game.
I'm thinking that most people who went to the Citrus Bowl thought he had us on the right path to even more success.

Just agree to disagree. I do not count Penn st. or Nebraska plus he caught Penn State with the Sandusky travesty. I just have different standards for what i think great coaching is. It is only my opinion and i do not think my opinion is more valuable than yours. Moving here part time from California i have always been amazed by how little success fans here expect. Not a single football or hoops coach in nearly 50 years that even remotely touches greatness. It is always some injury excuse or health or blown call. Why not expect and demand greatness. I have 5 decades of giving financial support to the programs and the hiring of coaches rivals anywhere for ineptness.

 

[GFBfan]

Why should the Gophers not expect a Alvarez like career. 1-10, 5-6,5-6 then 10-1 and a Rose Bowl title. Only a couple other.500 type years but 2 more rose bowl wins. That is shooting for the moon but being below average is not acceptable. It is like Pitino in hoops. People act like he is great but 31-59 and a bunch of off court trouble players. He would need to win the conference to even be considered a top 50 coach.

Takes more than a good HC to accomplish that. Barry didn't do it on his own, he had the financial support to make it happen as well as the support of the Ath. Dir and President.
That has not been the case at the U for a long time and wasn't while Kill was the HC. I would say that the support and financial commitment has improved greatly since PJ arrived and started even before he got here with the building of the Athletes Village.

 

[builtbadgers]

Takes more than a good HC to accomplish that. Barry didn't do it on his own, he had the financial support to make it happen as well as the support of the Ath. Dir and President.
That has not been the case at the U for a long time and wasn't while Kill was the HC. I would say that the support and financial commitment has improved greatly since PJ arrived and started even before he got here with the building of the Athletes Village.

Agree. It started with a chancelor who knew enough that it was a financial arms race and that they had to hire Pat Richter, a businessman with a steep knowledge in sports and the culture. He had tremendous recommendations to hire Alvarez who had the connections to not only big time programs but great young asst. coaches. Then they got Strong, Nicholas and Kellner and Kohl to provide tremendous funding and facilities. Finally the Kohl Center was promised if they could get Bennett whom Nicholas and Kohl demanded and Richter loved. Al Macguire and Bob Knight and Gene Keady heavily endorsed Bennett when Richter did the proper research for a complete build. Here the administration, the AD and thus the boosters here all failed a half century. If the top had been keen the boosters would have followed in force because everyone loves a winner. Instead the hires were mangled in so many ways. Coyle has a chance to prove he can do it. Fleck may just be a great hire, same for Hockey. He would not have hired Pitino although that could still work.

 

[WoodburyTim]

Good year congrats. Lets see in 5 years if Fleck beats UW, does better than 8 wins once, finishes better than 5-3 in the west once. After 5 years we will see if Fleck succeeds. I can not promise you he will but i can promise you Kill did not.

A very strange hypothetical gotcha tone to this post.

The posters on this board never fail to amaze.

 

[builtbadgers]

I actually meant good year. 8 wins is good.

 

[#2Gopher]

So someone tell me exactly what Kill won here in the entire time he was here. It is like those blowing the Pitino horn. Exactly what has he won in 5 years ? Please do not say the NIT ! I like Kill as a person but the reality is he did not get the job done.

Kill did succeed in a sense. His health steered his life differently as we all know. Success is measured in more ways than winning. Kill was doing some good things here. What we don't know if how successful he would have been if his health scare didn't get in the way. The job is never done by the way. You quitting builtbadger?

 

[CharchyCharch]

Kill did succeed in a sense. His health steered his life differently as we all know. Success is measured in more ways than winning. Kill was doing some good things here. What we don't know if how successful he would have been if his health scare didn't get in the way. The job is never done by the way. You quitting builtbadger?

Kill is a good man and a good coach but any more success with the Gophs and Kill and Co. would have headed out for the next pay raise. The jerk store comments those 2 made when they left displayed they were never SOLID GOLD.