The coach who (almost) never punts

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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per Axios Sports:

Kevin Kelley, the unorthodox coach who won nine Arkansas high school state championships while almost never punting, has brought his unique brand of football to college.
  • Kelley is now at Presbyterian College, an FCS school in Clinton, South Carolina. Through two games, his team has yet to punt, while also attempting 13 onside kicks.
  • QB Ren Hefley, a transfer from Michigan who played for Kelley in high school, tossed an FCS-record 10 touchdowns in his debut.
What's next: After games against D-II and NAIA opponents, Presbyterian plays its first FCS opponent this Saturday in Campbell.

Go gophers!!
 


It has to be a very attractive style to play if you are an offensive player at a certain level, or a guy like Ren who wants to put up gaudy QB numbers. Similar to Grinnell College basketball, where their coach only wants them to take 3's or easy lay-ups. I had a family friend who played at Grinnell and had a blast, he'd routinely take 10-12 3's a game. He knew he was D3 level talent, and figured why the heck not.

Go Gophers!!
 

It's an intresting idea, but something like the triple option where if it works ... you dominate, if it doesn't ... i suspect you're just hosed.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
It's an intresting idea, but something like the triple option where if it works ... you dominate, if it doesn't ... i suspect you're just hosed.
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Think football is still just waiting on its "Moneyball" moment. It will happen eventually. It has been seven years since the NY Times released that "you should basically always go for it on 4th and short" article and the message still hasn't stuck: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/upshot/4th-down-when-to-go-for-it-and-why.html
 


I think they will play St. Thomas, that should be interesting. In their first FCS game against Mich Tech, their QB's ran the ball more then the RB's and the QB's ran the ball more then passing with zero TD's.
 

I kinda hope his play style is successful at this level....kinda want to see him get a chance at an FBS school and maybe even P5 to see if it translates once the talent is better.
 

hello-world said:
Think football is still just waiting on its "Moneyball" moment. It will happen eventually. It has been seven years since the NY Times released that "you should basically always go for it on 4th and short" article and the message still hasn't stuck: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/upshot/4th-down-when-to-go-for-it-and-why.html
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That article is missing an important fact.

on average you should go for it on 4th and short. But the odds change if your punter is good, or bad. If your backup left guard is in. Or if their backup nose is in.


all else being equal you should go. Rarely is all else equal.
 




hello-world said:
Think football is still just waiting on its "Moneyball" moment. It will happen eventually. It has been seven years since the NY Times released that "you should basically always go for it on 4th and short" article and the message still hasn't stuck: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/upshot/4th-down-when-to-go-for-it-and-why.html
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I think the big difference is that the baseball season is long enough that there's enough time for all of the unconventional decisions that have a minor benefit to add up and pay off. The football season is small enough and games are decided with few enough plays that you're much less likely to see the results on paper. If you're not seeing the results on paper, a coach's unconventional moves that don't pay off are going to get a lot more attention.
 

Some guy said:
That article is missing an important fact.

on average you should go for it on 4th and short. But the odds change if your punter is good, or bad. If your backup left guard is in. Or if their backup nose is in.


all else being equal you should go. Rarely is all else equal.
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The point of the article is that coaches are too conservative. That's even more true today than it was when that article was published.

NFL offenses are more effective today than they were in 1990. Coaches haven't changed how they respond to any given situation.

For example, if you punt from 4th and 1 on your own 10, a modern NFL offense is still going to score on you most of the time, so you're better off trying to keep the ball.

The problem is that when coaches try to do the 'right' thing, they get blamed for the loss. When they do the 'conventional' thing and lose anyway, then the players weren't good enough. It's an adverse incentive. When someone gets brave enough to start doing the 'right' thing week in and week out, then their team will outperform their talent.

To your point, the odds vary around a mean and calling plays to the mean will lead to a better outcome more often than not. For each time you look at a lineman out on your own team, there's a starting tackle out on the other. Adapting to personnel isn't necessarily the right approach.
 


GoGophersUMN said:
I think the big difference is that the baseball season is long enough that there's enough time for all of the unconventional decisions that have a minor benefit to add up and pay off. The football season is small enough and games are decided with few enough plays that you're much less likely to see the results on paper. If you're not seeing the results on paper, a coach's unconventional moves that don't pay off are going to get a lot more attention.
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The bolded is really the only reason why coaches still punt too often. Far more likely to get criticized for failing when you go for it rather than punt. It's stupid logic, but that's the biggest factor IMO. Glad more coaches are coming around to realizing that sacrificing possession of the ball is often a stupid move.
 



Replacement Gopher said:
This is where I find my opportunity to once again mention PJ punted from the WI 37 on 4th and 2.
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mo busted a 50+-yard run against Ohio state on fourth and short in our own territory trailing by two scores and turned the game around so there's that decision by fleck. I wonder what might have happened if we kept kicking onside kickoffs against Ohio state. the best defense we have is to try and prevent them from getting the ball
 

The prez sez said:
mo busted a 50+-yard run against Ohio state on fourth and short in our own territory trailing by two scores and turned the game around so there's that decision by fleck. I wonder what might have happened if we kept kicking onside kickoffs against Ohio state. the best defense we have is to try and prevent them from getting the ball
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That really got the crowd going.
 


Tommyboy said:
I think they will play St. Thomas, that should be interesting. In their first FCS game against Mich Tech, their QB's ran the ball more then the RB's and the QB's ran the ball more then passing with zero TD's.
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It's the last game of the year -- I'm considering going just to see the guy in action.
 

The prez sez said:
mo busted a 50+-yard run against Ohio state on fourth and short in our own territory trailing by two scores and turned the game around so there's that decision by fleck. I wonder what might have happened if we kept kicking onside kickoffs against Ohio state. the best defense we have is to try and prevent them from getting the ball
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they would have targeted us into submission
 

noamfromm said:
It's the last game of the year -- I'm considering going just to see the guy in action.
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Yes running your QB's 20 times a game and scoring no touchdown is going to work in the FCS. If they cannot score against Michigan Tech who is a bottom Div II school. Lets see what happens this week playing UNI, who only lost by 6 points to Iowa state. Can you say over your head.
 

Any word on this guy's success rate of onsides kicks?

After they changed the rule where you can't OBLITERATE the guys trying to field the onsides kick (due to the Gophers ;)) it seems extra difficult to pull off an onsides kick.
 


Kelley sounds like a Hollywood kind of guy. Isn't USC looking for a coach? @mikebohn
 



A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Any word on this guy's success rate of onsides kicks?

After they changed the rule where you can't OBLITERATE the guys trying to field the onsides kick (due to the Gophers ;)) it seems extra difficult to pull off an onsides kick.
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That's my question. I'm sure answer is out there somewhere but would be surprised if it's over 10 - 15%.
 

If PJ leaves, maybe we can land him as our next head coach.
 

TNGophfan said:
That's my question. I'm sure answer is out there somewhere but would be surprised if it's over 10 - 15%.
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If you don’t have a good kicker in high school, a missed onside kick only really costs you 15 yards or so.

30 vs 45
 

Some guy said:
If you don’t have a good kicker in high school, a missed onside kick only really costs you 15 yards or so.

30 vs 45
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25 yards. It would be opponent's 45 as you kick off from 35.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Don't remind me, I still haven't psychologically recovered.
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Neither have I.
I am not sure I have seen a coach of a team I am invested in make such a poor in-game decision.

Mason continuing to rush two players against Philip Rivers in the Micronpc.com Bowl game is up there, but that was a far less meaningful game and had to do with Xs and Os versus a single decision.
 

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