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Didn't see that odds were in another thread. Mods move this if you'd like.
 


And now it's 4.


12:00 PM SAN JOSE STATE
MINNESOTA -4 -4
O/U: 51 51
 

Sounds like it's time to bet the kid's college fund on the locals :)
 




Coolew01 said:
-3.5 gophers
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You're right. Looks like only the Mirage is "holding the line". (Yeah, I know, sorry about that. :eek: )


SAN JOSE STATE
MINNESOTA -3.5 -3.5 -4 -3.5

O/U: 50.5 51.5 51
 

This must be a reaction to the QB announcement with a couple days lag.
 




Dr.Don said:
No, it is just Vegas wanting more money bet on Minnesota.
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He probably was referring to the money that started to move to SJSU could have been influenced by the Gophers QB situation. That resulted in the Books reacting the way you described.

Just a thought Don.
 

Iceland12 said:
You're right. Looks like only the Mirage is "holding the line". (Yeah, I know, sorry about that. :eek: )


SAN JOSE STATE
MINNESOTA-3.5 -3.5 -4 -3.5

O/U:50.551.5 51
Click to expand...

I think the has been moving
 

Injuries determine the opening line. After that, it is where the money is going. If too much betting on SJSU at +5.5, they will lower the line to encourage more money on the Gophers. Hence you see the movement going on in Vegas.
 



Dr.Don said:
Injuries determine the opening line. After that, it is where the money is going. If too much betting on SJSU at +5.5, they will lower the line to encourage more money on the Gophers. Hence you see the movement going on in Vegas.
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That's pretty true isn't it? Though with opening lines coming out on Monday and a lot of teams not confirming injuries until Press Conferences on Tuesday there's got to be some lag time.

Bookies have to balance the money that way wouldn't they? Some of the big Vegas Sportsbooks now that say they don't do that anymore. They are always trying to have the line reflect what they think the public thinks will be the outcome. The Mirage says that's what they do now. They're not trying to balance the money anymore. They want the line to reflect what the public is thinking. During a trip to Vegas for March Madness a couple of years back, I overheard some guys at the Sportsbook at Sunset Station. They were worried that they were getting way to much money on one of the California teams. They were talking about what they could do and one guys said that he called some other books "and they were having the same problem."

Don't know if he was trying to lay-off some money or just trying to figure out the market. We watched and the line didn't move much at all. Maybe it was just to damn late for it to make any difference.
 

Dr.Don said:
Injuries determine the opening line. After that, it is where the money is going. If too much betting on SJSU at +5.5, they will lower the line to encourage more money on the Gophers. Hence you see the movement going on in Vegas.
Click to expand...

I get that. I only meant that the bettors preferences changed to SJSU when it was confirmed that Nelson was out. The line then moved to even out the money as you describe.
 

Opening lines from -3 to -5.5. Now settling in at 3.5 - 4.

12:00 PM SAN JOSE STATE
MINNESOTA -3.5 -3.5 -4 -4 -3.5
O/U: 50.5 51.5 51 50.5

If you are a "math, betting and football guy" take a look at this site. It features all the Betting line movements for the game, from "Offshores" to Casinos from Reno to Vegas. Way to much information.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/[email protected]/date/09-21-13/time/1200
 

Iceland12 said:
That's pretty true isn't it? Though with opening lines coming out on Monday and a lot of teams not confirming injuries until Press Conferences on Tuesday there's got to be some lag time.

Bookies have to balance the money that way wouldn't they? Some of the big Vegas Sportsbooks now that say they don't do that anymore. They are always trying to have the line reflect what they think the public thinks will be the outcome. The Mirage says that's what they do now. They're not trying to balance the money anymore. They want the line to reflect what the public is thinking.
Click to expand...

I think that's just a more politically correct way of saying they are doing basically the exact same thing. Unless they go out and poll the non-betting public, or some dis-interested experts or something, their best data point on what the public 'thinks' is how betting is going. If it is going long one way, it is indicative that the public thinks the line is wrong, and thus should be moved...
 

tato2001 said:
I think that's just a more politically correct way of saying they are doing basically the exact same thing. Unless they go out and poll the non-betting public, or some dis-interested experts or something, their best data point on what the public 'thinks' is how betting is going. If it is going long one way, it is indicative that the public thinks the line is wrong, and thus should be moved...
Click to expand...

Seems reasonable; could be. Don't know how "P.C." enters into it though. Some bookmakers have been very vocal about how that's NOT how they do it. They just want the money to balance on the two teams period. Travel out there 2-3 times a year and don't bet nearly enough to care one way or another.
 

Now that Grigsby did not make the trip, I think it's another reason to bet the kid's college fund on the Gophers.
 

Iceland12 said:
Seems reasonable; could be. Don't know how "P.C." enters into it though. Some bookmakers have been very vocal about how that's NOT how they do it. They just want the money to balance on the two teams period. Travel out there 2-3 times a year and don't bet nearly enough to care one way or another.
Click to expand...

I just mean it sounds a little better to describe the process as seeking to reflect the public opinion than describing it as 'we just want to get balanced action so we can make money on the vig with little if any risk to ourselves.' Really the same thing, but I think amongst the public at large it's not that great to remind people that they have a system that effectively guarantees they make money in the long run (even though people know that's true at heart).

Sort of like how casinos advertise "Highest payout on slots!" vs. advertising "We take 30 cents out of every dollar you put into this machine!" Both can be true, but...

Anyways, I actually find a line on a game like this interesting (precisely because it does give a little insight into public opinion). I think I take the Gophers here, but it's close. My thinking is San Jose State = California team, prolly a fair amount of press for a smaller school, lots of gamblers prolly know a bit about them. Big offense makes them popular, Gophers are probably a favorite pick amongst regular gamblers to get upset. I guess I'm saying I wouldn't have been too surprised to see the Gophers as slight dogs based on the action casinos see. I try to look for those mis-pricings and if that had occurred, I would take the Gophers in a hearbeat.
 

Back up to Gophers -4.5 now.

12:00 PM (337) SAN JOSE ST AT (338) MINNESOTA -4.5
 

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