The Big Ten Football Food Chain (Tier 3: Minnesota)

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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Minnesota

The arrival of PJ Fleck led many to believe that Minnesota would soon be a legitimate contender within the Big Ten Conference. After coming close with an impressive 11-win season in 2019, Fleck is still searching for his first divisional title as he enters year five. Under Fleck’s leadership, the Gophers have participated in - and won - two bowl games. Unfortunately, the Gophers have also failed to make a bowl game in his other two seasons - though one of those was the oddity of the 2020 season.

There’s still plenty of time for Fleck to turn Minnesota into a legitimate contender, but for now they remain a solid tier three program.

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www.si.com

The Big Ten Football Food Chain

Top to bottom, the Big Ten Conference is one of the toughest conferences in all of college football. While the top spot spot is solidified for now, there is no shortage of legitimate challengers and perennial underdogs fully capable of making a run at the conference title during any given year.
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Go Gophers!!
 



I'm not ready to put Indiana in the same category as Minnesota, NW, MSU yet. They've been terrible for so long and are just starting to show signs taking a step up. But Tom Allen is leading them in that direction and if they can be a 8-10 win program for the foreseeable future, then I can get on board with this. Maybe the Gophers take a step up by then.
 




Wisconsin and Iowa are too high. Tier 2 is Penn State and Michigan. Iowa and Wiscy belong in Tier 3.
 

Ralph said:
Wisconsin and Iowa are too high. Tier 2 is Penn State and Michigan. Iowa and Wiscy belong in Tier 3.
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It's OK to root against your rivals while being realistic about their success. Wisconsin, in particular, is a no-doubt Tier 2.

As for the OP, I'm cool with the U being a Tier 3 football program knocking on the doors of Tier 2. This beats what it has been most of my lifetime.
 

The Gophers are knocking on the door of Tier 2. It's coming!...

Recruiting success is fundamental. PJ Fleck no doubt can recruit. Watch out when he starts getting 6 or more 4 Star players.
 



BleedGopher said:
Unfortunately, the Gophers have also failed to make a bowl game in his other two seasons - though one of those was the oddity of the 2020 season.
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I didn't follow it all that closely, but my impression was that we were very likely to receive an invite if we hadn't announced that we would not accept?
 


Yeah, Iowa and Wiscy are above Minnesota. tOSU reigns supreme.

This is actually pretty well done. Could argue Indiana is tier 4. Could argue Minnesota is there also. No one I'd move up.
 





Ralph said:
Wisconsin and Iowa are too high. Tier 2 is Penn State and Michigan. Iowa and Wiscy belong in Tier 3.
Click to expand...
From a historical perspective, the whole body of work, this is absolutely true. But if that's the lens you're looking through, obviously Nebraska would be much higher as well.

If you're talking today, or just the last couple seasons, this is probably an accurate depiction of the state of things
 

Here is the real tiers (last big ten title):

tier 1 - perennial national contenders
Ohio state (2020)

tier 2 - perennial big ten title contenders
Penn state (2016)
Wisconsin (2012)

Tier 3 - teams that people mistakenly put in tier 2
Iowa (2004)
Michigan (2003)

tier 4 - people who have been in tier 3 at times or have potential to make the jump to tier 3
Michigan state (2015) - if dantonio was still coach they are tier 3
Minnesota (1967)
Northwestern (2000)

Tier 5 - okay
Indiana (1967)
Purdue (2000)
Nebraska (never)
Maryland (never)

tier 6 - bad
Illinois (2001)
Rutgers (never)
 

Some guy said:
Here is the real tiers (last big ten title):

tier 1 - perennial national contenders
Ohio state (2020)

tier 2 - perennial big ten title contenders
Penn state (2016)
Wisconsin (2012)

Tier 3 - teams that people mistakenly put in tier 2
Iowa (2004)
Michigan (2003)

tier 4 - people who have been in tier 3 at times or have potential to make the jump to tier 3
Michigan state (2015) - if dantonio was still coach they are tier 3
Minnesota (1967)
Northwestern (2000)

Tier 5 - okay
Indiana (1967)
Purdue (2000)
Nebraska (never)
Maryland (never)

tier 6 - bad
Illinois (2001)
Rutgers (never)
Click to expand...
Fairly easy with six tiers. Do this in four tiers like the OP and what do you change?
 

Plausible Deniability said:
From a historical perspective, the whole body of work, this is absolutely true. But if that's the lens you're looking through, obviously Nebraska would be much higher as well.

If you're talking today, or just the last couple seasons, this is probably an accurate depiction of the state of things
Click to expand...
Yeah, top two tiers have basically been that way for the past decade or maybe longer. Bottom two are less locked in, which you would expect, fair amount of movement between them.
 

Here are the BIG W-L records for the past five years:
1. OSU 38-3
2. PSU 32-13
3. Wisconsin 31-11
4. Michigan 28-14
5. Northwestern 27-16
6. Iowa 27-17
7. Minnesota 20-23
8. IU 19-24
8. MSU 19-24
10.Nebraska 18-26
11. Purdue 15-28
12. Md 11-30
13. Illini 10-34
14. Rutgers 6-39

Last three years:
1. OSU 22-1
2. Iowa 17-9
3. PSU 17-10
4. Michigan 16-8
5. Wisconsin 15-9
6. Northwestern 15-10
7. Minnesota 13-12
7. IU 13-12
9. MSU 11-14
10. Purdue 10-14
11. Nebraska 9-17
12. Illini 8-18
13. Md 6-17
14. Rutgers 3-24

IMO, the following tiers:
1. OSU
2. PSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern
3. Minnesota, IU, MSU, Nebraska
4. Purdue, Illini, Md and Rutgers
 

It looks right to me. I viewed this as the results I would expect against the other teams when the Gophers are playing them right now.
If we play OSU, I expect a loss and would be totally shocked by a win.
If we play Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and to a lesser extent Penn State, I definitely don't expect a win but one wouldn't surprise me that much.
If we play NW, Indiana or Michigan state, I expect a good game and but our odds of winning or losing are about 50/50.
If we play the remaining teams, I always expect a win and am really disappointed if that is not the outcome.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Fairly easy with six tiers. Do this in four tiers like the OP and what do you change?
Click to expand...
Combine tier 4 and 5 but drop Maryland to tier 6


combine tier 2 and tier 3


1) Ohio state

2) penn state, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan

3) Northwestern, Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State

4) Maryland, Illinois, Rutgers


pretty close to the OP

But Iowa and Michigan aren’t close to Wisconsin and Penn state in my mind.
 

And if you throw Ohio State out, the divisions are extremely balanced. Whichever side OSU is on would balance heavily as the stronger conference.
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
And if you throw Ohio State out, the divisions are extremely balanced. Whichever side OSU is on would balance heavily as the stronger conference.
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This is 100% true

If the divisions were:
Ohio state
Illinois
Rutgers
Maryland
indiana
Purdue
Northwestern

Michigan
Michigan state
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Penn state


the top division would appear to be the better division as they’d win the conference 90% of the time


there have been year where the west has tied the East in head to heads and Franklin still complains his is tougher.
 

Tiers feel about right. If you wanted to look at a stock up/down/even in each tier my opinion would be:
Tier 1
Ohio State - Up - if there is another tier about 1 they would be a contender for it

Tier 2
Wisconsin, Penn State - Even - Very solid programs that have had a lot of success but clearly step below Ohio State on all fronts.
Iowa, Michigan - Down but still very solid tier 2 at this point

Tier 3
Minnesota, Indiana - Up - knocking on the door of tier 2
Northwestern - Even - Tier 3 is probably best bet for them, always good, rarely great
Michigan State - Down - new staff so could fluctuate but on border of moving down to tier 4

Tier 4
Purdue, Nebraska - Up - Feel like best bets to find way to tier 3 at some point
Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois - Even - Programs in need of an identity
 

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