The Ben Johnson Hire vs. Comparable Hires

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Thank you. Understand better. Of course we seem to have had much less success than ISU and Utah but do see them as much better comps.
 


Smith and TJ have already been head coaches. Sure first year at new school. Would be interesting to see Ben compared to others as well like Gates at Cleveland State, etc
 

Updated through January 20 games. Craig Smith & the Utes struggling.

Second record listed is vs. Power 6 programs.

 



Spottedmuskie said:
Smith and TJ have already been head coaches. Sure first year at new school. Would be interesting to see Ben compared to others as well like Gates at Cleveland State, etc
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Thanks. I knew that, but didn't make that clear with my wording. Now corrected moving forward.
 



GopherBlood666 said:
ISU really struggling after that hot start, Smith can't get anything going this year
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Big XII is definitely the best top to bottom conference this season. ISU has built a great resume, so if they can just go 7-11 in conference play they should get a bid. But that’s going to be tough.
 




Spottedmuskie said:
Wow, whats the word with Utah? Did he bring a few over with him from Utah State? I noticed David Jenkins Jr is getting less and less minutes. The guy used to be really good at South Dakota State
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Am surprised Utes have struggled this much. They look the part of a bottom end Pac 12 team. Right there with Oregon State.
 


builtbadgers said:
Thank you. Understand better. Of course we seem to have had much less success than ISU and Utah but do see them as much better comps.
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Although Utah has had more success than Minnesota in recent years, Utah and Oregon State are the two worst PAC 12 teams this season.
 

I'm going to use a very simple standard for comparison: coaches at power six conference programs who are coaching teams this season with very high player turnover due to transfers (this doesn't include players who left the team but are not listed as players entering the portal). To make this list, the program had to have had at least 8 players transfer from the 2020-2021 team (data from Verbal Commits).

Note that there are quite a few D1 programs that had 8 or more transfers at the end of last season but I limited the list to Power Six conferences. The categories should be self-evident with the winning percentage on the overall season.

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Observations:

1) There are multiple well-known names on this list. Ben Johnson is doing a little better than long-time veteran head coaches Martin and Anderson and much better than veterans Hurley and Crean. He is also doing much better than one of the veteran head coaches who was a primary favorite on this board as a successor to Pitino.

2) There are four first-time D1 head coaches on this list: Ben Johnson, Tommy Lloyd, Micah Shrewsburry, and Tony Stubblefield. Lloyd (who was a long-time assistant and associate head coach at Gonzaga) is leading the list this season (albeit at a program with a long history of substantial success). Shrewsbury was briefly a head coach at an NAIA school I believe and Stubblefield was briefly an interim head coach (2-12 record) at New Mexico State when Lou Henson stepped down for health reasons.
 

cjbfbp said:
I'm going to use a very simple standard for comparison: coaches at power six conference programs who are coaching teams this season with very high player turnover due to transfers (this doesn't include players who left the team but are not listed as players entering the portal). To make this list, the program had to have had at least 8 players transfer from the 2020-2021 team (data from Verbal Commits).

Note that there are quite a few D1 programs that had 8 or more transfers at the end of last season but I limited the list to Power Six conferences. The categories should be self-evident with the winning percentage on the overall season.

View attachment 16677

Observations:

1) There are multiple well-known names on this list. Ben Johnson is doing a little better than long-time veteran head coaches Martin and Anderson and much better than veterans Hurley and Crean. He is also doing much better than one of the veteran head coaches who was a primary favorite on this board as a successor to Pitino.

2) There are four first-time D1 head coaches on this list: Ben Johnson, Tommy Lloyd, Micah Shrewsburry, and Tony Stubblefield. Lloyd (who was a long-time assistant and associate head coach at Gonzaga) is leading the list this season (albeit at a program with a long history of substantial success). Shrewsbury was briefly a head coach at an NAIA school I believe and Stubblefield was briefly an interim head coach (2-12 record) at New Mexico State when Lou Henson stepped down for health reasons.
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Every once in a while someone puts up something of real value. Thanks.
 





Dakota2 said:
Recognition well deserved. Ben has gained a lot of respect in college basketball.
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I was thinking about this the other day. He came in as an underdog, so no reason for other fanbases or coaches to dislike him. No pomp and circumstance, not a crybaby like that Iowa coach, and not a pansy like that duke coach. He is a likeable dude and is in the perfect position to root for. No experience, basically a completely new team, bringing in players from lower tiers, and anything else that is "perceived" as not good enough. Perfect storm for gaining eye popping recognition and respect in a short period of time.
Like you said, (and I am only guessing because I don't anything) he has gained a ton of respect from the coaching community. I hope for him as a person that he succeeds. He deserves it.
 


Note, the second record is vs. Power 6 opponents. So in the Gophers' case, that includes wins over Pitt & Mississippi State.
 
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Look, Ben could have a below average record after 6 years here and it wouldn't necessarily mean he was a bad hire. It's difficult to win at Minnesota as you all know. History suggests Ben will be fortunate to go .500 here and he could still be considered a good hire. I think 40 years in the desert is a good data point not to be ignored. Okay, jump down my throat now.
 

Allshade said:
Look, Ben could have a below average record after 6 years here and it wouldn't necessarily mean he was a bad hire. It's difficult to win at Minnesota as you all know. History suggests Ben will be fortunate to go .500 here and he could still be considered a good hire. I think 40 years in the desert is a good data point not to be ignored. Okay, jump down my throat now.
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The problem with using history to set expectations is things change quickly particularly in the portal era. The U is running out of reasons not to have a competitive basketball program that makes the tournament every year with the new found advantages that we have that we didn’t before between in-state recruiting and the new facilities. It took Pitino 4 years to not just make the tournament but finish 4th in the conference, if a mediocre coach that’s a poor recruiter can accomplish that here pre portal, I have no reason to believe that shouldn’t be the standard in the long term.

I’m behind Ben 100% and I think he’s perfect for the job but expectations should be something like 4 years to make the tournament (3 in my mind), six years to contend for the conference and 8 to win the conference or get to a Sweet 16. For as much as people make this conference out to be a tough climb to the top, Illinois flipped their roster and became an annual contender pretty quickly. It’s not like Underwood set the world on fire in recruiting either, he surrounded Ayo and Cockburn (a pair of top 40-50 recruits) with solid pieces and now they’re a headache every year.

it was hard to win at Baylor until it wasn’t (they went 20 years without a tournament appearance before Drew’s 5th season), hard to win at Texas Tech until it wasn’t, Wisconsin and so on. If Football is a consistent bowl program and division contender, our expectations for Basketball should be even higher
 

GopherNuts said:
The problem with using history to set expectations is things change quickly particularly in the portal era. The U is running out of reasons not to have a competitive basketball program that makes the tournament every year with the new found advantages that we have that we didn’t before between in-state recruiting and the new facilities. It took Pitino 4 years to not just make the tournament but finish 4th in the conference, if a mediocre coach that’s a poor recruiter can accomplish that here pre portal, I have no reason to believe that shouldn’t be the standard in the long term.

I’m behind Ben 100% and I think he’s perfect for the job but expectations should be something like 4 years to make the tournament (3 in my mind), six years to contend for the conference and 8 to win the conference or get to a Sweet 16. For as much as people make this conference out to be a tough climb to the top, Illinois flipped their roster and became an annual contender pretty quickly. It’s not like Underwood set the world on fire in recruiting either, he surrounded Ayo and Cockburn (a pair of top 40-50 recruits) with solid pieces and now they’re a headache every year.

it was hard to win at Baylor until it wasn’t (they went 20 years without a tournament appearance before Drew’s 5th season), hard to win at Texas Tech until it wasn’t, Wisconsin and so on. If Football is a consistent bowl program and division contender, our expectations for Basketball should be even higher.
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Very persuasive analysis you gave. Thanks. I hope Ben gets it done for us.
 

GopherNuts said:
The problem with using history to set expectations is things change quickly particularly in the portal era. The U is running out of reasons not to have a competitive basketball program that makes the tournament every year with the new found advantages that we have that we didn’t before between in-state recruiting and the new facilities. It took Pitino 4 years to not just make the tournament but finish 4th in the conference, if a mediocre coach that’s a poor recruiter can accomplish that here pre portal, I have no reason to believe that shouldn’t be the standard in the long term.

I’m behind Ben 100% and I think he’s perfect for the job but expectations should be something like 4 years to make the tournament (3 in my mind), six years to contend for the conference and 8 to win the conference or get to a Sweet 16. For as much as people make this conference out to be a tough climb to the top, Illinois flipped their roster and became an annual contender pretty quickly. It’s not like Underwood set the world on fire in recruiting either, he surrounded Ayo and Cockburn (a pair of top 40-50 recruits) with solid pieces and now they’re a headache every year.

it was hard to win at Baylor until it wasn’t (they went 20 years without a tournament appearance before Drew’s 5th season), hard to win at Texas Tech until it wasn’t, Wisconsin and so on. If Football is a consistent bowl program and division contender, our expectations for Basketball should be even higher
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GopherNuts said:
The problem with using history to set expectations is things change quickly particularly in the portal era. The U is running out of reasons not to have a competitive basketball program that makes the tournament every year with the new found advantages that we have that we didn’t before between in-state recruiting and the new facilities. It took Pitino 4 years to not just make the tournament but finish 4th in the conference, if a mediocre coach that’s a poor recruiter can accomplish that here pre portal, I have no reason to believe that shouldn’t be the standard in the long term.

I’m behind Ben 100% and I think he’s perfect for the job but expectations should be something like 4 years to make the tournament (3 in my mind), six years to contend for the conference and 8 to win the conference or get to a Sweet 16. For as much as people make this conference out to be a tough climb to the top, Illinois flipped their roster and became an annual contender pretty quickly. It’s not like Underwood set the world on fire in recruiting either, he surrounded Ayo and Cockburn (a pair of top 40-50 recruits) with solid pieces and now they’re a headache every year.

it was hard to win at Baylor until it wasn’t (they went 20 years without a tournament appearance before Drew’s 5th season), hard to win at Texas Tech until it wasn’t, Wisconsin and so on. If Football is a consistent bowl program and division contender, our expectations for Basketball should be even higher
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Sounds reasonable. If we don't see tourney run by year 4, eek.

Year 3 we at the very least should be bubble, but my expectation is tourney team by year 3
 

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