The Athletic: What are the most dangerous trap games for college football’s Top 25 teams? (23. Illinois - November 2 vs Minnesota)

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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We need to beat Bert, it's time.

Per The Athletic:

23. Illinois (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) — Nov. 2 vs. Minnesota. The Illini surprised the Gophers (3-3) on a 46-yard TD pass last year in the final minute for a one-point victory. Illinois has won three straight in this series, but it will come off consecutive games against Michigan and Oregon. That’s letdown territory, the terrain of which Illinois is all too familiar. Minnesota is capable of making it happen.


Go Gophers!!
 







btowngopher said:
We’ll probably beat them this year. Just cause he wins a few in a row doesn’t mean it’s going to last forever.
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It's more than a few at this point. The last time he was on the other sideline and lost to the Gophers was when he was an LB coach for Iowa in 2000.
 






maroonfive said:
I am not sure we can beat fatty wherever he is coaching.
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Well that’s the problem then. You’ve got to believe you can beat the stinking team that stinking coach is coaching before you beat that stinking coach’s stinking team!

You got to believe maronfive you have got to believe. ;0)
 

Not really sure I agree it is a trap game when it follows two tough games. The letdown part could be in play if they were to say upset Oregon the week before maybe.

Like Indiana, Illinois got a really favorable schedule this year and may definitely be overrated. Their one good win to date is against Nebraska and some of their rating is being fueled by beating a top #20 (at the time) Kansas who has gone 1-5 and was clearly overrated in the preseason polls.

But hey, hopefully they can keep moving up in the pols to make our upset of them even more impressive when it happens :)
 

walrus said:
Well that’s the problem then. You’ve got to believe you can beat the stinking team that stinking coach is coaching before you beat that stinking coach’s stinking team!

You got to believe maronfive you have got to believe. ;0)
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You stinkin little stinker!!!
 



MNVCGUY said:
Not really sure I agree it is a trap game when it follows two tough games. The letdown part could be in play if they were to say upset Oregon the week before maybe.

Like Indiana, Illinois got a really favorable schedule this year and may definitely be overrated. Their one good win to date is against Nebraska and some of their rating is being fueled by beating a top #20 (at the time) Kansas who has gone 1-5 and was clearly overrated in the preseason polls.

But hey, hopefully they can keep moving up in the pols to make our upset of them even more impressive when it happens :)
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I feel like "trap games" are for teams of widely disparate quality. Not really the case here and MN and Illinois are both teams who shouldn't look past anyone ... by default.

Alabama has trap games.... got caught. MN and Illinois do not.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
I feel like "trap games" are for teams of widely disparate quality. Not really the case here and MN and Illinois are both teams who shouldn't look past anyone ... by default.

Alabama has trap games.... got caught. MN and Illinois do not.
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Agree that usually one team is a big favorite over the other when a trap game is involved. Illinois will be favored against us but probably not by a wide enough margin that they should view the game as an easy victory.

The other element of a trap game is usually a game against a weaker opponent falling the week before a big rivalry game or high profile matchup so that a team's attention is diverted away from the current game towards the future game. Illinois has a bye week after they play us.
 

I've always questioned the existence of trap games. Sometimes big upsets happen. But is there any evidence to suggest that a big underdog is more likely to over-perform the analytical models when "trap game" circumstances (like the week before a big game) are present? If so, I've never seen it.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I've always questioned the existence of trap games. Sometimes big upsets happen. But is there any evidence to suggest that a big underdog is more likely to over-perform the analytical models when "trap game" circumstances (like the week before a big game) are present? If so, I've never seen it.
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It’s like momentum.

Momentum and trap games don’t really exist in sports, it’s just that people need a convenient word or phrase to describe streakiness or an unexpected outcome.
 


walrus said:
Well that’s the problem then. You’ve got to believe you can beat the stinking team that stinking coach is coaching before you beat that stinking coach’s stinking team!

You got to believe maronfive you have got to believe. ;0)
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PJ’s got to believe…
 


MNVCGUY said:
Agree that usually one team is a big favorite over the other when a trap game is involved. Illinois will be favored against us but probably not by a wide enough margin that they should view the game as an easy victory.

The other element of a trap game is usually a game against a weaker opponent falling the week before a big rivalry game or high profile matchup so that a team's attention is diverted away from the current game towards the future game. Illinois has a bye week after they play us.
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Depending how the teams look the next few weeks it’s possible we may even be favored.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
How can it be trap game when the opponent is ranked and the opposing coach is 10-0 against the Gophers If anything, the Gophers game is a trap game for Illinois.
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I think that is what the OP is saying. The Gophers game is a trap for ranked Illinois.
 



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