MisterGopher
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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6741983/2025/10/23/college-football-coach-firings-success/
In the SEC, where several teams expect 10-win seasons every year, the math just doesn't work out. Justin Ford / Getty Images
Almost overnight, 8-4 became the new 10-2 in college football, and it is really messing with everyone involved.
Especially in the SEC, where they’re finding out being NFL Lite might not be as cool as it sounds.
It’s getting harder to win. Meanwhile, patience for perceived underperformance is as thin as ever. Expectations and related decision-making have not adjusted to a world where many schools that were accustomed to being the baddest bully on the block moved into much tougher neighborhoods.
Former Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby predicted this problem during the last round of conference realignment, when Texas and Oklahoma jumped from the Big 12 to the SEC and USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington went from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten.
“I think there are some in the larger conferences that will clearly be marginalized, and the money won’t be worth it because they’ll be traditional losers on a regular basis,” Bowlsby told the Associated Press in 2023. “And I think there will be institutions that have been traditional winners that will turn into institutions that are playing in the middle of the pack most of the time, that’s going to be a big adjustment.”
What Bowlsby missed was how the transfer portal and name, image and likeness compensation would create a path for the sport’s traditional have-nots to change their lots in life. In a system where players have almost total agency over where they play, prestige and legacy get nudged aside by money on the decision tree, and a lot more schools can get into the game.
:
Turns out, Bowlsby was right. And it’s no surprise college football is grappling with adjusted standards for success. It’s only been the old way for about 100 years, with a few slight modifications.
The last couple of years have been a shock to the system, and it’s pretty clear that few were prepared for the consequences.
In the SEC, where several teams expect 10-win seasons every year, the math just doesn't work out. Justin Ford / Getty Images
Almost overnight, 8-4 became the new 10-2 in college football, and it is really messing with everyone involved.
Especially in the SEC, where they’re finding out being NFL Lite might not be as cool as it sounds.
It’s getting harder to win. Meanwhile, patience for perceived underperformance is as thin as ever. Expectations and related decision-making have not adjusted to a world where many schools that were accustomed to being the baddest bully on the block moved into much tougher neighborhoods.
Former Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby predicted this problem during the last round of conference realignment, when Texas and Oklahoma jumped from the Big 12 to the SEC and USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington went from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten.
“I think there are some in the larger conferences that will clearly be marginalized, and the money won’t be worth it because they’ll be traditional losers on a regular basis,” Bowlsby told the Associated Press in 2023. “And I think there will be institutions that have been traditional winners that will turn into institutions that are playing in the middle of the pack most of the time, that’s going to be a big adjustment.”
What Bowlsby missed was how the transfer portal and name, image and likeness compensation would create a path for the sport’s traditional have-nots to change their lots in life. In a system where players have almost total agency over where they play, prestige and legacy get nudged aside by money on the decision tree, and a lot more schools can get into the game.
:
Turns out, Bowlsby was right. And it’s no surprise college football is grappling with adjusted standards for success. It’s only been the old way for about 100 years, with a few slight modifications.
The last couple of years have been a shock to the system, and it’s pretty clear that few were prepared for the consequences.
