The 2025 Gophers football season will be a sucsss if?…

The sad part is that so much hinges on one key position. But if Drake is competent (ie....not Kaliakmanis, Croft.....) the team has a shot to be solid. If Drake excels the bar goes up quite a ways but for a redshirt freshman getting first taste of action it is wise to temper expectations.

Since 2019 the team has only failed to reach .500 in conference one time (not counting abbreviated 2020) and that was the AK mess.

Scary putting faith in such a young QB but it's where we are at and the coaches didn't go out desperately searching for another option so hopefully that means they like what they are seeing from Drake and think he is ready to be the guy.
I worry less about Drake as I do supporting cast. OL, WRs ... I've been very skeptical of our WRs outside say one guy at a time, for a long time. Drake can even only do so much.
 

People are way more confidant than I am, but they usually are this time of year.

I look across the team and I see a few standout players but so many positions where as a group ... I just dunno man.
I feel what you're saying.

I was a lurker on this board for a lonnnnng time before I created a profile and we've come so far in terms of our general fan expectations. Some people get criticized for being too optimistic or vice versa being hedge betters, but it seems the overall perception of the health of the program has never been better in the eyes of the fans in the modern era. It's such a nice change from the late Mason/Brewster years of total hopelessness and the "man I hope we can pull a rabbit out of our ass and get to six wins" funk most of us used to feel, even into the Kill years. Hope springs eternal!
 

I feel what you're saying.

I was a lurker on this board for a lonnnnng time before I created a profile and we've come so far in terms of our general fan expectations. Some people get criticized for being too optimistic or vice versa being hedge betters, but it seems the overall perception of the health of the program has never been better in the eyes of the fans in the modern era. It's such a nice change from the late Mason/Brewster years of total hopelessness and the "man I hope we can pull a rabbit out of our ass and get to six wins" funk most of us used to feel, even into the Kill years. Hope springs eternal!
Floor and ceiling have definitely been raised under Fleck.

Mason took a joke of a program and made it respectable

Maturi made a dumb hire and the program took a bit of detour back towards Wacker in the Brester years

Kill got things back to Mason levels and showed a little potential to grow beyond that before his "retirement"

Claeys was never going to be anything more than a one year option.

Fleck has built on the foundation that Mason/Kill/Claeys established and has raised the floor to the point where finishing under .500 in conference play feels like a bad season even though getting to .500 or better in the Big Ten was not a common occurrence under the coaches during the 35+ years before he got here.

Fleck - over .500 in conference games - 4 times in 7 full seasons - 57%
1980 - 2016 - .500 or better in conference - 11 times in 37 seasons - 30% (only 6 (16%) were over .500, the rest were 4-4)

So the Floor has been raised and while we haven't been able to force our way into that next tier up, the program is in a very healthy place and right on par with where our main rivals are in this current college football landscape.
 

I'm thinking the same. Fleck talked in 2019 about that being a season where the program turned the corner. Gophs have had a couple good seasons since, but I think that "corner" is still up ahead for Fleck and Co. This season on paper could be that season. If Drake pans out (I think he will), it should be.
I don’t think it’s fair to expect a redshirt freshman QB in place for your “turn the corner” season. I have high expectations for Drake over the next four years, but I am surprised that so many people expect so much of him this year. For example, Tanner Morgan’s numbers as a redshirt freshman were mediocre and the team went 6-6, and that was a team with Ibrahim, Bateman, Johnson, Winfield, Howden, Cashman, and Coughlin.

I think we will have a good window starting in 2026 when we have a good nucleus of experience among Drake, the OC, and the DC, but I think it is unrealistic to expect Drake to lead the team to a winning B1G season so early in his tenure (please prove me wrong, Drake).
 



Id consider 8-4 (5-4) to be successful in as much as it wouldnt be a disappointment. For it to be successful in the sense that I am really pleased with the outcome, id say 10 wins (including postseason).
 

I don’t think it’s fair to expect a redshirt freshman QB in place for your “turn the corner” season. I have high expectations for Drake over the next four years, but I am surprised that so many people expect so much of him this year. For example, Tanner Morgan’s numbers as a redshirt freshman were mediocre and the team went 6-6, and that was a team with Ibrahim, Bateman, Johnson, Winfield, Howden, Cashman, and Coughlin.

I think we will have a good window starting in 2026 when we have a good nucleus of experience among Drake, the OC, and the DC, but I think it is unrealistic to expect Drake to lead the team to a winning B1G season so early in his tenure (please prove me wrong, Drake).
Why not? Drake has had almost two years in the program. Pretty highly recruited. A pair and a spare behind him. He's ready. I think he will surprise a lot of folks.
 

Floor and ceiling have definitely been raised under Fleck.

Mason took a joke of a program and made it respectable

Maturi made a dumb hire and the program took a bit of detour back towards Wacker in the Brester years

Kill got things back to Mason levels and showed a little potential to grow beyond that before his "retirement"

Claeys was never going to be anything more than a one year option.

Fleck has built on the foundation that Mason/Kill/Claeys established and has raised the floor to the point where finishing under .500 in conference play feels like a bad season even though getting to .500 or better in the Big Ten was not a common occurrence under the coaches during the 35+ years before he got here.

Fleck - over .500 in conference games - 4 times in 7 full seasons - 57%
1980 - 2016 - .500 or better in conference - 11 times in 37 seasons - 30% (only 6 (16%) were over .500, the rest were 4-4)

So the Floor has been raised and while we haven't been able to force our way into that next tier up, the program is in a very healthy place and right on par with where our main rivals are in this current college football landscape.
It's his ninth season. He's beyond being a year or two away from a breakout. Let's get it done, Fleck.
 

I worry less about Drake as I do supporting cast. OL, WRs ... I've been very skeptical of our WRs outside say one guy at a time, for a long time. Drake can even only do so much.
I think I saw something where Fleck said this group of WRs from top to bottom was the best he's had in his time here. Hard to believe considering the TJ/ Bateman/ CrAB years, but maybe he knows something we don't...

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong about that!
 



I think I saw something where Fleck said this group of WRs from top to bottom was the best he's had in his time here. Hard to believe considering the TJ/ Bateman/ CrAB years, but maybe he knows something we don't...

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong about that!
Don't make me bring up Jerry's quote about WRs!

Granted PJ, I trust more if he said that.
 

It's his ninth season. He's beyond being a year or two away from a breakout. Let's get it done, Fleck.
There isn't a breakout coming. There is the hope for more years like we had in 2019 or like what Indiana had last year but in this current landscape there isn't a ton of room for upward mobility for those solid programs like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa who are good but not really positioned to truly compete on that same level as teams like Ohio State and others in that tier.
 

7 wins and a decent bowl win or 8 wins.
A win over OSU or Oregon would be awesome.
 

Floor and ceiling have definitely been raised under Fleck.

Mason took a joke of a program and made it respectable

Maturi made a dumb hire and the program took a bit of detour back towards Wacker in the Brester years

Kill got things back to Mason levels and showed a little potential to grow beyond that before his "retirement"

Claeys was never going to be anything more than a one year option.

Fleck has built on the foundation that Mason/Kill/Claeys established and has raised the floor to the point where finishing under .500 in conference play feels like a bad season even though getting to .500 or better in the Big Ten was not a common occurrence under the coaches during the 35+ years before he got here.

Fleck - over .500 in conference games - 4 times in 7 full seasons - 57%
1980 - 2016 - .500 or better in conference - 11 times in 37 seasons - 30% (only 6 (16%) were over .500, the rest were 4-4)

So the Floor has been raised and while we haven't been able to force our way into that next tier up, the program is in a very healthy place and right on par with where our main rivals are in this current college football landscape.
I keep trying to tell the casual fans of my generation that we've been much better this century than they realize. Brewster skews these numbers, unfortunately. But 1999 is really the dividing line between mediocrity and competitiveness.

Between 1999 and 2016, we were at or above .500 39% of the time. If you remove Brewster's four years, it's 50% for Mason/Kill/Claeys. (And that includes a couple years for Kill to rebuild.) Fleck has also been 50%, so we're at 50% since 1999 if you remove Brewster. (I know ... we can't.)

Between 1979 and 1998, we were .500 or better 20% of the time, with two coaches going 0-fer. Just dreadful.
 



It will be a success if:
- PJ continues to show growth on the offensive side of the ball - modernizing the offense just enough so that we keep defenses honest on defending the pass.
- Drake is able to complete enough passes to allow PJ to be bold and modern. To this end, the season will be a success if Drake shows he's "the guy" to lead the team forward past this year.
- We retain defensive excellence despite the loss of a stellar DC
- We beat Iowa and Wisconsin
 

There isn't a breakout coming. There is the hope for more years like we had in 2019 or like what Indiana had last year but in this current landscape there isn't a ton of room for upward mobility for those solid programs like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa who are good but not really positioned to truly compete on that same level as teams like Ohio State and others in that tier.
I'm one of those guys that pisses off the "if we don't develop into a perrenial top 20 team in five years, fire the coach" people - I'm totally fine with hovering around the 8 win range, particularly when we play 9 conference games, and hoping for a breakout every handful of years. If we play competitive in the losses, particularly against the big name schools, and retain or bring home a trophy or two per year all while fielding a law abiding, studious team with players to look forward to seeing, I'll continue to be all in. Having hope for greatness coming into a season is way better than having hope for mediocrity at best.
 

8-4 would be moderately successful, 9-3 or 8-4 with wins over Wisconsin and Iowa would be a success. The floor should be high given the schedule.
 

I'm one of those guys that pisses off the "if we don't develop into a perrenial top 20 team in five years, fire the coach" people - I'm totally fine with hovering around the 8 win range, particularly when we play 9 conference games, and hoping for a breakout every handful of years. If we play competitive in the losses, particularly against the big name schools, and retain or bring home a trophy or two per year all while fielding a law abiding, studious team with players to look forward to seeing, I'll continue to be all in. Having hope for greatness coming into a season is way better than having hope for mediocrity at best.
Right there with you, don't get me wrong, would love to have a National Championship or bust program like Ohio State but that just isn't realistic with the way the college landscape is configured right now for places like Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin.....

I'm good with what we are getting from Fleck, there is always the hope for more and the potential to get there if things break right but in the end most years at worst we are going to be competitive and at best we could do something special.

And when you factor in a program where the players don't seem to get in trouble often and much of the time they stick around as opposed to jumping ship as soon as they are successful...that makes for an enjoyable team to follow in this messed up college athletics world we are in right now.
 

There isn't a breakout coming. There is the hope for more years like we had in 2019 or like what Indiana had last year but in this current landscape there isn't a ton of room for upward mobility for those solid programs like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa who are good but not really positioned to truly compete on that same level as teams like Ohio State and others in that tier.
I don’t think that anyone cares much about breaking through to compete for the national title. Years like ‘19 regularly would seem to be fine.
 

I'm one of those guys that pisses off the "if we don't develop into a perrenial top 20 team in five years, fire the coach" people - I'm totally fine with hovering around the 8 win range, particularly when we play 9 conference games, and hoping for a breakout every handful of years. If we play competitive in the losses, particularly against the big name schools, and retain or bring home a trophy or two per year all while fielding a law abiding, studious team with players to look forward to seeing, I'll continue to be all in. Having hope for greatness coming into a season is way better than having hope for mediocrity at best.
I would argue that PJ has only had one really good breakout year in almost a decade. Build him a statue is he does it every handful of years, or a bit less.
 

I worry less about Drake as I do supporting cast. OL, WRs ... I've been very skeptical of our WRs outside say one guy at a time, for a long time. Drake can even only do so much.
OL and lack of depth at DL and DB would be my concerns going into season
 

I keep trying to tell the casual fans of my generation that we've been much better this century than they realize. Brewster skews these numbers, unfortunately. But 1999 is really the dividing line between mediocrity and competitiveness.

Between 1999 and 2016, we were at or above .500 39% of the time. If you remove Brewster's four years, it's 50% for Mason/Kill/Claeys. (And that includes a couple years for Kill to rebuild.) Fleck has also been 50%, so we're at 50% since 1999 if you remove Brewster. (I know ... we can't.)

Between 1979 and 1998, we were .500 or better 20% of the time, with two coaches going 0-fer. Just dreadful.

When you talk about "at or above .500", are you referring to overall won/lost record for each season?
 

The issue with the casual fans in this market is many of them consistently move the goalposts.
"I'll pay attention when they're competitive"
"I'll pay attention when they're ranked"
"I'll pay attention when they beat Wisconsin"
"I'll pay attention when they win all the trophy games"
Just yesterday on KFAN Johnny Athletic said he would pay attention if the Gophers "make it into the top 10" That's setting the bar quite high in order to show interest. Wish they would just admit "I don't like college football"
 
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Conference records.

Seasons at or above .500 (conference records):

FLECK (8 total seasons): 2-7, 3-6, 7-2, 3-4, 6-3, 5-4, 3-6, 5-4 (4 of 8 seasons, 50%)

KILL/CLAEYS (6 total seasons): 2-6, 2-6, 4-4, 5-3, 2-6, 5-4 (3 of 6 seasons, 50%)

MASON
(10 total seasons) 1-7, 2-6, 5-3, 4-4, 2-6, 3-5, 5-3, 3-5, 4-4, 3-5 (4 of 10 seasons, 40%)

--------

if you change the qualifier/cutoff from "at and above .500" to "above .500", you get...

FLECK: 4 of 8 (50% of his seasons)

KILL/CLAEYS: 2 of 6 (33% of their seasons)

MASON: 2 of 10 (20%of his seasons)
 
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8-4 would be moderately successful, 9-3 or 8-4 with wins over Wisconsin and Iowa would be a success. The floor should be high given the schedule.
Assuming Oregon and OSU are in the loss column at 8-4, who are the other two losses if Gophs beat Iowa and Bucky?
 

Assuming Oregon and OSU are in the loss column at 8-4, who are the other two losses if Gophs beat Iowa and Bucky?
My playful but half serious response would be Buffalo and Purdue! This team sleepwalks through at least one "can't miss" game per year which they occasionally lose
 

I feel like the team is talented enough to win 8+ regular season with just average QB play. Now if QB is below average, 8+ is probably going to be tough.

I'll say 8 regular season wins or more.

Most publications aren't all that high on the Gophers (same as it ever was as the Talking Heads once said) but one publication said that anything less than 8 wins will be a disappointment.

So, I feel similar to you. 8 regular season wins will be good enough. 9 regular season wins will be better than good.
 

At this point I’m going into every year hoping for a breakout season, really only disappointed if the floor drops out (a losing record). It’s not a bad place to be for this program.
 

I'm one of those guys that pisses off the "if we don't develop into a perrenial top 20 team in five years, fire the coach" people - I'm totally fine with hovering around the 8 win range, particularly when we play 9 conference games, and hoping for a breakout every handful of years. If we play competitive in the losses, particularly against the big name schools, and retain or bring home a trophy or two per year all while fielding a law abiding, studious team with players to look forward to seeing, I'll continue to be all in. Having hope for greatness coming into a season is way better than having hope for mediocrity at best.
If we continue to win 8-9 in 75% of seasons we will eventually break through
 

Assuming Oregon and OSU are in the loss column at 8-4, who are the other two losses if Gophs beat Iowa and Bucky?
Nebraska
Cal
Rutgers
Michigan state

All power 5 teams that will be between 5-8 wins I think.

Buffalo
Northwestern
Northwestern state
Purdue
I see those 4 as wins

Ohio state and Oregon I see as losses

The 6 games:
Wisconsin
Iowa
Nebraska
Michigan state
Rutgers
Cal

Make or break the season
And I listed them in order of importance
 




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