- Oct 8, 2011
- Reaction score
I get where you are coming from but the talent pool has already been concentrated, they just now have to outbid each other in the open as opposed to behind closed doors.From my standpoint, you're right on some things but its oversimplified. Those teams, if you're referring to Bama, OSU, Clemson, etc, having 4 and 5 stars is correct. The issue is the next tier after that. We battle to try pull a couple 4 stars every year. The next tier of programs, who will likely be predominantly in the South because of the boon CFB is there, will start paying the next swath more heavily (Bama, OSU and co paying the 5 stars then the group of 4 stars they want) which is going to wean talent away from the middle of the crop and concentrate it places. There's no point whatsoever for a MN to pay one 4 star guy to bring him in. you won't win more games that way and you won't generate revenue from one guy. So it's going to hurt the middle tier programs from that standpoint.
Secondarily, the high concentration of talent places is going to hurt fan interest. Why watch your team if they're going to never have a chance to win? I would foresee this really hurting the G5 and lower tier P5 teams. The P5 teams who get to revenue share will be fine in their AD, but the G5 teams are going to be left out in increasing numbers (for example, the likelihood Cinci is going to keep that level of senior talent around is going to get less and less, because guys will be offered NIL with the chance to transfer when they show they're good). It's a double edged sword in that it isn't just going to concentrate the talent coming out of high school, it's also going to hit you when they set foot on campus and we've now made it legal and unenforceable where prior you at least took the risk that you could get hit with sanctions, post season bans, etc that would dissuade you from making it so widespread to every single player.
The playing field wasn't level before, but you've tipped the scales more heavily in favor of the haves. Schools at the level of MN, Iowa, Colorado, Washington, etc who are good at many things but not consistently "great" are going to be the ones who take the biggest hit and that is going to lead to college sports becoming less fun. It will be interesting to see what comes of it all as it goes forward but it worries me about the direction. Maybe the people who gave Ewers money, saw him sit on the pine (did this play a role in him transferring as they're telling him he needs to start now?), and possibly flame out will scare them off of the big money. We'll see but I hope so.
And obviously you can tell I'm biased in writing this because I foresee this hurting the team I follow and I fully admit that. I also dislike, generally speaking, that college sports has simply moved towards making revenue rather than about representing your school, amateurism, etc. and that is not at all the fault of the players that it got there.
G5 teams were stuck on the outside looking in before this and that won't change with NIL. The college football landscape has been unbalanced for a long time now with most of the power concentrated in a handful of schools. The pool of teams with a legit shot to win the NC each year is pretty small and I don't see that changing anytime soon.