Sunday At-Large Update (12 bids available)

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SelectionSunday

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I'm going to keep it simple this bright & early morning and focus on the Gophers.

If the Gophers win the 8-9 game on Thursday (am assuming that's where we'll be), I think they're a lock. My reasoning is, unlike the 7-10 or 6-11 game, the Gophers are assured of playing a quality opponent (read: top 50-100). A win actually enhances their resume as opposed to simply avoiding a "bad loss" (Iowa or Indiana). I just can't envision any scenario where they'd be left out with the number of top-50 and top-100 wins they'd have and, perhaps most importantly, they would be assured of not having a single bad loss (opponent with a RPI of 101+).

However, if the Gophers lose the 8-9 game -- though their at-large resume would stack up just fine vs. most bubble teams -- I think they're in serious trouble. They will have given the Selection Committee a valid reason to leave them out by blowing their final two opportunities to secure a bid (Michigan, BTT 1st round). I'd put the Gophers' at-large chances at about 25% if they lose on Thursday.

One suggestion: Though I know some Gopher fans despise North Dakota State, I suggest you put that aside for a few days & root like heck for the Bison to win the Summit League Tournament on Tuesday. If the Bison win their semifinal game Monday and then capture the Summit's automatic bid Tuesday, it would assure the Gophers will have (at minimum) three nonconference wins over NCAA qualifiers (also Cornell and Louisville). That certainly can't hurt the Gophers' profile.

Now, on to the at-large update. As of Sunday morning, we're at 24 teams battling for the final 12 at-large bids. In my estimation the Gophers are one of 5 teams that can secure one of the those remaining 12 bids simply by winning one more game.

Ducat Is Punched (4)
112. Cornell (19-9)
115. East Tennessee State (21-10)
132. Radford (18-11)
142. Morehead State (17-15)

Conference Tournament Top Seed (27)
3. North Carolina (25-3)
6. Michigan State (24-5)
7. Memphis (28-3)
8. Kansas (25-6)
9. Louisville (25-5)
12. Washington (23-7)
14. Xavier (24-6)
18. Butler (25-4)
22. BYU (23-6)
24. Siena (24-7)
27. Utah State (26-4)
35. Gonzaga (23-5)
37. LSU (25-6)
53. Western Kentucky (20-8)
62. VCU (22-9)
67. Northern Iowa (21-10)
68. Davidson (25-6)
76. Miami of Ohio (17-11)
78. American (22-7)
84. Stephen F. Austin (17-7)
88. Weber State (20-8)
93. Binghamton (20-8)
94. North Dakota State (22-6)
116. Robert Morris (22-10)
136. Morgan State (19-11)
151. Cal State Northridge (14-13)
201. Alabama State (17-9)

Locks (22)
1. Pitt (27-3)
2. Duke (25-5)
4. Oklahoma (27-4)
5. UConn (27-3)
10. Utah (21-8)
11. Mizzou (24-6)
13. Villanova (25-6)
15. Wake Forest (23-5)
16. Florida State (22-8)
17. Tennessee (19-10)
19. Clemson (23-6)
20. Syracuse (22-8)
21. Illinois (23-8)
23. Dayton (25-6)
25. West Virginia (21-10)
28. UCLA (24-7)
29. Texas A&M (22-8)
30. Marquette (23-8)
31. Purdue (22-8)
33. Cal (22-9)
34. Arizona State (22-8)
36. Texas (20-10)

On the Verge (5) -- a lock with 1 more win
26. Oklahoma State (20-10): vs. Iowa State, Big 12 1st round (Wednesday)
38. Ohio State (19-9): Northwestern (today)
41. GOPHERS (20-9): vs. TBD, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
42. Michigan (18-12): vs. TBD, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
54. Boston College (21-10): vs. TBD, ACC 1st round (Thursday)

On the Bubble (19)
32. Wisconsin (17-11): Indiana (today) -- win today, UW upgrades to "on the verge"
39. Creighton (26-7): season complete
40. Temple (19-11): vs. Saint Joseph's/Charlotte, A-10 quarterfinals (Wednesday)
44. San Diego State (19-8): at UNLV, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
47. Georgetown (16-13): vs. St. John's, Big East 1st round (Tuesday)
48. South Carolina (21-8): vs. TBD, SEC quarterfinals (Thursday)
49. Florida (22-9): vs. TBD, SEC 1st round (Wednesday)
50. St. Mary's (22-5): vs. Portland, WCC Tournament (today)
51. Miami-Florida (17-11): vs. TBD, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
52. Arizona (19-12): vs. Arizona State, Pac 10 quarterfinals (Thursday)
55. UNLV (21-9): San Diego State, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
57. New Mexico (21-10): vs. Wyoming, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
59. Virginia Tech (17-12): at Florida State (today)
61. Penn State (21-10) -- vs. TBD, Big 10 1st round/quarterfinals (Thursday/Friday)
63. Rhode Island (22-9): vs. Duquesne/UMass, A-10 quarterfinals (Thursday)
64. Auburn (20-10): vs. TBD, SEC quarterfinals (Thursday)
65. Maryland (18-12): vs. TBD, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
70. Northwestern (17-11): at Ohio State (today)
71. Providence (18-12): vs. Cincinnati/DePaul, Big East 2nd round (Wednesday)

Next At-Large Update: Monday, March 9th.
 

If the Gophers win the 8-9 game on Thursday (am assuming that's where we'll be), I think they're a lock. My reasoning is, unlike the 7-10 or 6-11 game, the Gophers are assured of playing a quality opponent (read: top 50-100). A win actually enhances their resume as opposed to simply avoiding a "bad loss" (Iowa or Indiana). I just can't envision any scenario where they'd be left out with the number of top-50 and top-100 wins they'd have and, perhaps most importantly, they would be assured of not having a single bad loss (opponent with a RPI of 101+).
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Everything I've read agrees. Win Thursday and we should be in. Lose and then it's ok to hit the panic button.
 

Thanks Selection Sunday. I hope we can seal the deal on Thursday.
 

We just can't have anything funny happen in the major conference tourneys (aka one weak team winning their tourney and getting an automatic bid).
 

"We just can't have anything funny happen in the major conference tourneys (aka one weak team winning their tourney at getting an automatic bid)."

The SEC comes immediately to mind.
 


Win Thursday and we should be in.
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Also, the Rival's guy has us in regardless. Dunno about that. I'm not even feeling that good if we have to play Northwestern again. Should be a nail biter.
 

I have to agree with this assessment. While our resume may still be better then a lot of the bubble teams, even with a loss, I have a bad feeling that the 'how they finished' card would be all the committee would need and it would be hard to argue. I was thinking about a 25% chance if we lose myself. Not odds I'd like. Let's win and we're in. And I like our chances much more against Northwestern even though they're hot lately.
 

SS...quote from Andy Katz, ESPN.com:

"The North Dakota State dream season continues. The Bison beat Centenary 83-77 in the first round of the Summit League tournament in Sioux Falls, S.D., after blowing a 19-point halftime lead. The Bison are in their first year of Division I and won the Summit league with a 16-2 record."

And to top it off, SoDak State upset the #2 seed Oral Roberts in the Summit League Tournament.

Now I look for an NDSU/Oakland final game on ESPN Tuesday night.

GO GOPHERS!!!!!!!!!!
 

SS,
What are your views on Creighton?? Not a very good way to go out of your conference tournament, thats for sure!
 



We have to take care of business, but so much depends on what the other bubble teams do. Let's just root like crazy for all the favorites to win their conference tourneys, and the other bubble teams to stub their toes.
 


SelectionSunday said:
In my estimation the Gophers are one of 5 teams that can secure one of the those remaining 12 bids simply by winning one more game.
Click to expand...

I'm not real optimistic for Thursday, no matter who they play. I'm hoping that it's Northwestern, so after they beat the Gophers I can cheer for them to upset MSU so they make the tourney.

By my count the Gophers have played 5 games down the stretch where they could have absolutely locked up a tournament bid (@ OSU, @ PSU, @ Mich, @ Ill and yesterday). They blew all 5, some in fantastic fashion.

Tubby, his staff, and the players have shown me nothing to think Thursday will be any different.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I'm going to keep it simple this bright & early morning and focus on the Gophers.

If the Gophers win the 8-9 game on Thursday (am assuming that's where we'll be), I think they're a lock. My reasoning is, unlike the 7-10 or 6-11 game, the Gophers are assured of playing a quality opponent (read: top 50-100). A win actually enhances their resume as opposed to simply avoiding a "bad loss" (Iowa or Indiana). I just can't envision any scenario where they'd be left out with the number of top-50 and top-100 wins they'd have and, perhaps most importantly, they would be assured of not having a single bad loss (opponent with a RPI of 101+).

However, if the Gophers lose the 8-9 game -- though their at-large resume would stack up just fine vs. most bubble teams -- I think they're in serious trouble. They will have given the Selection Committee a valid reason to leave them out by blowing their final two opportunities to secure a bid (Michigan, BTT 1st round). I'd put the Gophers' at-large chances at about 25% if they lose on Thursday.

One suggestion: Though I know some Gopher fans despise North Dakota State, I suggest you put that aside for a few days & root like heck for the Bison to win the Summit League Tournament on Tuesday. If the Bison win their semifinal game Monday and then capture the Summit's automatic bid Tuesday, it would assure the Gophers will have (at minimum) three nonconference wins over NCAA qualifiers (also Cornell and Louisville). That certainly can't hurt the Gophers' profile.

Now, on to the at-large update. As of Sunday morning, we're at 24 teams battling for the final 12 at-large bids. In my estimation the Gophers are one of 5 teams that can secure one of the those remaining 12 bids simply by winning one more game.

Ducat Is Punched (4)
112. Cornell (19-9)
115. East Tennessee State (21-10)
132. Radford (18-11)
142. Morehead State (17-15)

Conference Tournament Top Seed (27)
3. North Carolina (25-3)
6. Michigan State (24-5)
7. Memphis (28-3)
8. Kansas (25-6)
9. Louisville (25-5)
12. Washington (23-7)
14. Xavier (24-6)
18. Butler (25-4)
22. BYU (23-6)
24. Siena (24-7)
27. Utah State (26-4)
35. Gonzaga (23-5)
37. LSU (25-6)
53. Western Kentucky (20-8)
62. VCU (22-9)
67. Northern Iowa (21-10)
68. Davidson (25-6)
76. Miami of Ohio (17-11)
78. American (22-7)
84. Stephen F. Austin (17-7)
88. Weber State (20-8)
93. Binghamton (20-8)
94. North Dakota State (22-6)
116. Robert Morris (22-10)
136. Morgan State (19-11)
151. Cal State Northridge (14-13)
201. Alabama State (17-9)

Locks (22)
1. Pitt (27-3)
2. Duke (25-5)
4. Oklahoma (27-4)
5. UConn (27-3)
10. Utah (21-8)
11. Mizzou (24-6)
13. Villanova (25-6)
15. Wake Forest (23-5)
16. Florida State (22-8)
17. Tennessee (19-10)
19. Clemson (23-6)
20. Syracuse (22-8)
21. Illinois (23-8)
23. Dayton (25-6)
25. West Virginia (21-10)
28. UCLA (24-7)
29. Texas A&M (22-8)
30. Marquette (23-8)
31. Purdue (22-8)
33. Cal (22-9)
34. Arizona State (22-8)
36. Texas (20-10)

On the Verge (5) -- a lock with 1 more win
26. Oklahoma State (20-10): vs. Iowa State, Big 12 1st round (Wednesday)
38. Ohio State (19-9): Northwestern (today)
41. GOPHERS (20-9): vs. TBD, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
42. Michigan (18-12): vs. TBD, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
54. Boston College (21-10): vs. TBD, ACC 1st round (Thursday)

On the Bubble (19)
32. Wisconsin (17-11): Indiana (today) -- win today, UW upgrades to "on the verge"
39. Creighton (26-7): season complete
40. Temple (19-11): vs. Saint Joseph's/Charlotte, A-10 quarterfinals (Wednesday)
44. San Diego State (19-8): at UNLV, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
47. Georgetown (16-13): vs. St. John's, Big East 1st round (Tuesday)
48. South Carolina (21-8): vs. TBD, SEC quarterfinals (Thursday)
49. Florida (22-9): vs. TBD, SEC 1st round (Wednesday)
50. St. Mary's (22-5): vs. Portland, WCC Tournament (today)
51. Miami-Florida (17-11): vs. TBD, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
52. Arizona (19-12): vs. Arizona State, Pac 10 quarterfinals (Thursday)
55. UNLV (21-9): San Diego State, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
57. New Mexico (21-10): vs. Wyoming, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
59. Virginia Tech (17-12): at Florida State (today)
61. Penn State (21-10) -- vs. TBD, Big 10 1st round/quarterfinals (Thursday/Friday)
63. Rhode Island (22-9): vs. Duquesne/UMass, A-10 quarterfinals (Thursday)
64. Auburn (20-10): vs. TBD, SEC quarterfinals (Thursday)
65. Maryland (18-12): vs. TBD, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
70. Northwestern (17-11): at Ohio State (today)
71. Providence (18-12): vs. Cincinnati/DePaul, Big East 2nd round (Wednesday)

Next At-Large Update: Monday, March 9th.
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Wowsers. Now this is one sweet post.
 



GoGoGophers said:
I'm not real optimistic for Thursday, no matter who they play. I'm hoping that it's Northwestern, so after they beat the Gophers I can cheer for them to upset MSU so they make the tourney.

By my count the Gophers have played 5 games down the stretch where they could have absolutely locked up a tournament bid (@ OSU, @ PSU, @ Mich, @ Ill and yesterday). They blew all 5, some in fantastic fashion.

Tubby, his staff, and the players have shown me nothing to think Thursday will be any different.
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I'm so very glad to have you on our side. :rolleyes: Go Gophers.
 

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