STrib: How have the Gophers fared in Big Ten games under coach P.J. Fleck?

[Fleckoff]

per Randy:

A look at how the Gophers have fared against Big Ten teams in coach P.J. Fleck's five seasons:

West

Illinois 3-2
Iowa 0-5
Nebraska 4-1
Northwestern 2-2
Purdue 4-1
Wisconsin 2-3
West total 15-14

East

Indiana 2-0
Maryland 2-3
Michigan 0-2
Michigan State 0-1
Ohio State 0-2
Penn State 1-0
Rutgers 1-0
East total 6-8

Big Ten total 21-22

How have the Gophers fared in Big Ten games under coach P.J. Fleck?

The record vs. the West is best as they head into perhaps the last season in that division.

www.startribune.com

Go Gophers!!

By far the best first five years since Bierman. Warmath's best years were in the 7-9 range

 

[short ornery norwegian]

since we're talking about B1G records here, I did a little research.

I checked for seasons where the Gophers finished with a .500 or better record in conference games.

Mason: 4 of 10 seasons. 40%

Kill/Claeys: 3 of 6 seasons. 50%

Fleck to date: 2 of 5 seasons. 40%.

Look, on the 'eye test,' the Gophers have improved under Fleck.

but now, we come to the real question: how much more can they improve? What is the ceiling for this program under Fleck?

for a long time, the Gophers were in a zone where "win 8 games and go to a Bowl Game" was considered a successful season. But some people said that is not good enough - that the program is capable of more.

I guess we'll have to see what happens in the next 3 to 4 years.

 

[RememberMurray]

since we're talking about B1G records here, I did a little research.

I checked for seasons where the Gophers finished with a .500 or better record in conference games.

Mason: 4 of 10 seasons. 40%

Kill/Claeys: 3 of 6 seasons. 50%

Fleck to date: 2 of 5 seasons. 40%.

Look, on the 'eye test,' the Gophers have improved under Fleck.

but now, we come to the real question: how much more can they improve? What is the ceiling for this program under Fleck?

for a long time, the Gophers were in a zone where "win 8 games and go to a Bowl Game" was considered a successful season. But some people said that is not good enough - that the program is capable of more.

I guess we'll have to see what happens in the next 3 to 4 years.

According to Wiki...

Kill B1G conference record:
2-6, 2-6, 4-4, 5-3, 1-2 (14-21 total in-conference)
TOTAL at or above .500: 2 of 5 (40%)

Jerry Kill - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Claeys B1G conference record:
1-4, 5-4 (6-8 total in-conference)
TOTAL at or above .500: 1 of 2 (50%)

Tracy Claeys - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Wcfan56]

since we're talking about B1G records here, I did a little research.

I checked for seasons where the Gophers finished with a .500 or better record in conference games.

Mason: 4 of 10 seasons. 40%

Kill/Claeys: 3 of 6 seasons. 50%

Fleck to date: 2 of 5 seasons. 40%.

Look, on the 'eye test,' the Gophers have improved under Fleck.

but now, we come to the real question: how much more can they improve? What is the ceiling for this program under Fleck?

for a long time, the Gophers were in a zone where "win 8 games and go to a Bowl Game" was considered a successful season. But some people said that is not good enough - that the program is capable of more.

I guess we'll have to see what happens in the next 3 to 4 years.

You, SON, like too many who are not strong Fleck backers conveniently count the COVI D season in your analysis. No right minded fairness would do so since the other coaches had nothing like it to deal with. Heck, players got do overs. Check Fleck’s record since he hired Joe Rossi minus the exhibition season of 2020 and make your evaluation.

 

[Fleckoff]

since we're talking about B1G records here, I did a little research.

I checked for seasons where the Gophers finished with a .500 or better record in conference games.

Mason: 4 of 10 seasons. 40%

Kill/Claeys: 3 of 6 seasons. 50%

Fleck to date: 2 of 5 seasons. 40%.

Look, on the 'eye test,' the Gophers have improved under Fleck.

but now, we come to the real question: how much more can they improve? What is the ceiling for this program under Fleck?

for a long time, the Gophers were in a zone where "win 8 games and go to a Bowl Game" was considered a successful season. But some peope said that is not good enough - that the program is capable of more.

I guess we'll have to see what happens in the next 3 to 4 years.

Fleck is the only coach in that group to win more than five conference games in a season and he did it twice.

 

[Dakota2]

Barry Alvarez, B1G conference record: in 16 seasons at Wisconsin, Alvarez was 65-60-3 in conference play. That's a winning percentage of 50.8%.

50.8% is good enough to make Alvarez a living legend in Madison.

Does anybody besides me think Fleck will probably top the 50% mark in career winning percentage in conference play by the end of the 2022 season?

Without checking, who would believe Barry didn't win 85% of his Big Ten games?

I have not the slightest doubt Fleck will comfortably surpass the Alvarez record.

 

[Dakota2]

Alvarez won his 3 Rose Bowls, which cemented his legacy. Fry lost his 3 Rose Bowls, but finished 96-61-5 in conference play. Many (most?) people rate Alvarez higher than Fry. Perhaps a close call.

96-61-5 vs 65-60-3 is not a close call, Rose Bowls or not. The Hawks flew high with Fry.

 

[Dakota2]

You, SON, like too many who are not strong Fleck backers conveniently count the COVI D season in your analysis. No right minded fairness would do so since the other coaches had nothing like it to deal with. Heck, players got do overs. Check Fleck’s record since he hired Joe Rossi minus the exhibition season of 2020 and make your evaluation.

The 2020 season is official. It will always be in the books. But football people, fan or foe, understand that fake season of covid protocol virtue signaling has no relevance in evaluating Fleck's record at Minnesota.

 

[Panthadad2]

I don't know why Kill/Claeys and Mason are still in the discussion. Fleck has already had two seasons that surpassed their best in conference play with 6 and 7 wins; or may the better way to look at historically is with records of .778 and .667. Warmath had 8 of 18 seasons at .667 or better and two co-champion/champion conference titles. Fleck has a ways to go.

 

[Taji34]

Obviously, it was a different league when Alvarez took over than it is now but his winning a Rose Bowl when no one gave WI a chance was the turning point for the program.
All else followed that.
But it all started when the new Chancellor Donna Shala, who came from a nonfootball school, recognized the importance of success in sports in the BIG and got a new AD who chose Alvarez.
It is only recently that the administration at MN has paid any real attention to the AD and MN's athletic performance.
This is Fleck's sixth year and given the schedule, not winning the West should have the AD start to look for a replacement.

Let's compare Alvarez's first 5 seasons to Coach Fleck's shall we?

Barry Alvarez:

Year	Overall	Conference	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
1990	1-10	0-8	10th (last)
1991	5-6	2-6	T - 8th
1992	5-6	3-5	T -6th
1993	10-1-1	6-1-1	T -1st	Rose (win)	5	6
1994	8-3-1	5-2-1	4th	Hall of Fame (win)
Overall/Average	29-26-2	16-22-2	~5th	N/A	N/A	N/A

PJ Fleck:

Year	Overall	Conference	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
2017	5-7	2-7	6th (west)
2018	7-6	3-6	T-5th (west)	Quick Lane (win)
2019	11-2	7-2	T - 1st (west)	Outback (win)	10	10
2020	3-4	3-4	4th (west)
2021	9-4	6-3	T-2nd (west)	Guaranteed Rate (win)
Overall/Average	35-23	21-22	~3rd (west)	N/A	N/A	N/A

Looks pretty comparable to me, not to mention the conference is harder to win in nowadays IMO.

At the same point in their careers Fleck has a better winning percentage both overall and in conference. Both had 1 season ranked, of which Barry achieved a higer ranking, but both were in the top 10 and within 5 rankings of each other. The Rose bowl is a more prestigious bowl, and Barry achieved a conference championship (again, I'd argue that's harder to do now than it was then), so he technically achieved a higher high, but he also had lower lows. PJ is a more consistent coach at this point in his career.

Now let's look at Barry's 6th season as Head coach:

Year	Overall	Conference	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
1995	4-5-2	3-4-1	T-7th

Should Wisconsin have fired him after the 1995 season in your opinion?

 

[short ornery norwegian]

According to Wiki...

Kill B1G conference record:
2-6, 2-6, 4-4, 5-3, 1-2 (14-21 total in-conference)
TOTAL at or above .500: 2 of 5 (40%)

Jerry Kill - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Claeys B1G conference record:
1-4, 5-4 (6-8 total in-conference)
TOTAL at or above .500: 1 of 2 (50%)

Tracy Claeys - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Murray, with all due respect, you are counting the same season twice.

that is why my post said Kill/Claeys - because there was one season where Kill started the season and Claeys finished it. It's one season with two coaches - not two separate seasons.

and again - I have said before that the Gophers have improved under Fleck. That is not up for dispute.

the real question comes down to consistency. Can Fleck make the Gophers a consistent winning program, and can he win a division title or even a conference title? those are the real hurdles for this program. and that is still an open question.

If Fleck is as good as some people think, then he will prove it by his record. Or not.

 

[RememberMurray]

Murray, with all due respect, you are counting the same season twice.

that is why my post said Kill/Claeys - because there was one season where Kill started the season and Claeys finished it. It's one season with two coaches - not two separate seasons.

and again - I have said before that the Gophers have improved under Fleck. That is not up for dispute.

the real question comes down to consistency. Can Fleck make the Gophers a consistent winning program, and can he win a division title or even a conference title? those are the real hurdles for this program. and that is still an open question.

If Fleck is as good as some people think, then he will prove it by his record. Or not.

Gotta tell ya, I think you were really straining on this one, SON. It's a pretty obscure stat, and really doesn't mean much. Especially with such small sample sizes.

Percentage of seasons with a .500 record or better in conference.

Not "with a winning record in conference". Nope. Not "winning percentage in conference." Uh-uh. It's "Percentage of seasons with a .500 record or better".

Wow! Seriously? Tell me: have you ever considered writing for the Strib?

At any rate, we'll be sure to revisit this one after the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

 

[RememberMurray]

Let's compare Alvarez's first 5 seasons to Coach Fleck's shall we?

Barry Alvarez:

Year	Overall	Conference	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
1990	1-10	0-8	10th (last)
1991	5-6	2-6	T - 8th
1992	5-6	3-5	T -6th
1993	10-1-1	6-1-1	T -1st	Rose (win)	5	6
1994	8-3-1	5-2-1	4th	Hall of Fame (win)
Overall/Average	29-26-2	16-22-2	~5th	N/A	N/A	N/A

PJ Fleck:

Year	Overall	Conference	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
2017	5-7	2-7	6th (west)
2018	7-6	3-6	T-5th (west)	Quick Lane (win)
2019	11-2	7-2	T - 1st (west)	Outback (win)	10	10
2020	3-4	3-4	4th (west)
2021	9-4	6-3	T-2nd (west)	Guaranteed Rate (win)
Overall/Average	35-23	21-22	~3rd (west)	N/A	N/A	N/A

Looks pretty comparable to me, not to mention the conference is harder to win in nowadays IMO.

At the same point in their careers Fleck has a better winning percentage both overall and in conference. Both had 1 season ranked, of which Barry achieved a higer ranking, but both were in the top 10 and within 5 rankings of each other. The Rose bowl is a more prestigious bowl, and Barry achieved a conference championship (again, I'd argue that's harder to do now than it was then), so he technically achieved a higher high, but he also had lower lows. PJ is a more consistent coach at this point in his career.

Now let's look at Barry's 6th season as Head coach:

Year	Overall	Conference	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
1995	4-5-2	3-4-1	T-7th

Should Wisconsin have fired him after the 1995 season in your opinion?

Great analysis. Great post.

 

[builtbadgers]

96-61-5 vs 65-60-3 is not a close call, Rose Bowls or not. The Hawks flew high with Fry.

Conference titles and Rose Bowl wins are what make champions and HOF members. Fleck will have to win titles. Hope he does it, big fan.

 

[builtbadgers]

Great analysis. Great post.

Anyone wanting Fleck fired even if under .500 this year must not be paying attention. But he will eventually have to win conference titles to make the HOF.

 

[Dakota2]

Conference titles and Rose Bowl wins are what make champions and HOF members. Fleck will have to win titles. Hope he does it, big fan.

Iowa fans went home happy 96 Saturday's. That's a lot of satisfaction. Tough as it must have been to come home whipped three times from Pasadena, they had a lot of respect during Hayden Fry's long tenure.

 

[Some guy]

Let's compare Alvarez's first 5 seasons to Coach Fleck's shall we?

Barry Alvarez:

Year	Overall	Conference	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
1990	1-10	0-8	10th (last)
1991	5-6	2-6	T - 8th
1992	5-6	3-5	T -6th
1993	10-1-1	6-1-1	T -1st	Rose (win)	5	6
1994	8-3-1	5-2-1	4th	Hall of Fame (win)
Overall/Average	29-26-2	16-22-2	~5th	N/A	N/A	N/A

PJ Fleck:

Year	Overall	Conference	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
2017	5-7	2-7	6th (west)
2018	7-6	3-6	T-5th (west)	Quick Lane (win)
2019	11-2	7-2	T - 1st (west)	Outback (win)	10	10
2020	3-4	3-4	4th (west)
2021	9-4	6-3	T-2nd (west)	Guaranteed Rate (win)
Overall/Average	35-23	21-22	~3rd (west)	N/A	N/A	N/A

Looks pretty comparable to me, not to mention the conference is harder to win in nowadays IMO.

At the same point in their careers Fleck has a better winning percentage both overall and in conference. Both had 1 season ranked, of which Barry achieved a higer ranking, but both were in the top 10 and within 5 rankings of each other. The Rose bowl is a more prestigious bowl, and Barry achieved a conference championship (again, I'd argue that's harder to do now than it was then), so he technically achieved a higher high, but he also had lower lows. PJ is a more consistent coach at this point in his career.

Now let's look at Barry's 6th season as Head coach:

Year	Overall	Conference	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
1995	4-5-2	3-4-1	T-7th

Should Wisconsin have fired him after the 1995 season in your opinion?

Being able to tie for a conference title without beating the team they tied with or the team that got third would be a nice way to win the conference. Can’t do that anymore (1993)