STrib: Gophers coach Richard Pitino says next team will be most talented

[JimmyJamesMD]

Can I print this post and frame it?

Is this real?

 

[gopherguy15]

I see the negative nancies are out in full force again today. I'm really glad that I don't have an extremely pessimistic viewpoint on every single Gopher topic like some of you. Must be really tough to be a fan. There's a big difference between being a pessimist and a "realist" (an excuse I've heard a lot on these boards). You may think you're a realist, but when every single thing you post is negative, then newsflash, you're teetering towards the pessimist side.

Anyways, after last year's injury-and-suspension-riddle season, we have nowhere to go but up. I like the balance and depth (finally!) that we'll have at our disposal. Sure, there are question marks (players coming back from injury, freshman impact, IW's play, Matz, etc.), but given the makeup of next year's roster (and the addition of Carr the following year), I like the current direction. I think Stull and the two new coaches can (and will) have a big impact on next year's team.

 

[cjbfbp]

I see the negative nancies are out in full force again today. I'm really glad that I don't have an extremely pessimistic viewpoint on every single Gopher topic like some of you. Must be really tough to be a fan. There's a big difference between being a pessimist and a "realist" (an excuse I've heard a lot on these boards). You may think you're a realist, but when every single thing you post is negative, then newsflash, you're teetering towards the pessimist side.

Anyways, after last year's injury-and-suspension-riddle season, we have nowhere to go but up. I like the balance and depth (finally!) that we'll have at our disposal. Sure, there are question marks (players coming back from injury, freshman impact, IW's play, Matz, etc.), but given the makeup of next year's roster (and the addition of Carr the following year), I like the current direction. I think Stull and the two new coaches can (and will) have a big impact on next year's team.

You're missing the point. I'm reasonably optimistic about this season (and I believe that some others who have been critical of Pitino are as well). I simply said that Pitino should be gone if he doesn't make a postseason (notice I said "a postseason," not the NCAA tournament) this coming year. I don't believe that letting him continue after a six-year record of performance like that would be, or should be, well received by the fans. As for those on this site who seem to have unconditional love for Pitino and hope his tenure here continues without reservation, I don't get them at all. He hasn't earned that level of affection.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

I noticed how you qualified it with "regular season." As you well know, the regular season is very important (essentially everything) in college football. In college basketball, the regular season is important insofar as it gets you to the Tournament, ideally with a nice seed. If you win the conference, great, but there is little distinction between 2nd and say, 7th, so long as you make the Tournament. Anyone who would rather finish 4th in the Big Ten and lose in the first round, instead of finishing 7th and winning a Tournament game, is either lying or has an agenda.

Your agenda has been anti-Pitino since year 1 and everyone knows that.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Got it.

Things that should determine whether or not a coach keeps his job are:
- Recruiting rankings
- Good freshmen and sophomores
- Age (They get more time if they are young because they have to learn.)

Things that should not factor in:
- Overall wins and losses
- NCAA tournament appearances
- Track record of success

Things that factor in differently depending on who the coach is:
- Bad luck
- Player transfers
- Recruiting misses

Who said this? Pitino will ultimately be fired or extended based on those factors. Not every coaching situation is cut and dry. Many thought the Gophers overachieved when they won the NIT in year 1. Pitino's struggles in year 3 were partially because Tubby left him nothing for underclassmen and partially because Pitino missed on some early recruits, which was a part of learning on the job.

If you don't think the Gophers future is brighter entering year 6 of Pitino, than it was in year 6 of Tubby, then you're not paying attention. Giving Pitino one year longer than Tubby got for the factors I mentioned in my original post will be the reality.

 

[dpodoll68]

Your agenda has been anti-Pitino since year 1 and everyone knows that.

My agenda is fair and equal treatment. The kid gloves treatment of the current coach (when the previous coach received widespread hatred despite much better results) is both patronizing to a millionaire and a sad commentary on the state of Gopher basketball fans.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

My agenda is fair and equal treatment. The kid gloves treatment of the current coach (when the previous coach received widespread hatred despite much better results) is both patronizing to a millionaire and a sad commentary on the state of Gopher basketball fans.

Widespread hatred? Give me a break. Plenty of people appreciated Tubby for putting some competitive teams on the floor. Plenty of people also realized he mailed it in on the recruiting trail his last few years here and the future was bleak as long as he remained the coach.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Widespread hatred? Give me a break. Plenty of people appreciated Tubby for putting some competitive teams on the floor. Plenty of people also realized he mailed it in on the recruiting trail his last few years here and the future was bleak as long as he remained the coach.

How do you not see the absurdity in firing a coach the year he gets to the round of 32, and then not expecting the new coach to get there once in the same number of years. Dpod and I butted heads about tubby quite a bit before he got fired, but it is tough to argue we haven't substantially lowered the bar.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

How do you not see the absurdity in firing a coach the year he gets to the round of 32, and then not expecting the new coach to get there once in the same number of years. Dpod and I butted heads about tubby quite a bit before he got fired, but it is tough to argue we haven't substantially lowered the bar.

Because if we don't get there this season, I feel strongly we will get at least that far if not further next season. I also feel like with the current roster, Pitino's recruiting ability and the new facilities, the ground has been laid for more consistent/longterm success.

 

[scools12]

My agenda is fair and equal treatment. The kid gloves treatment of the current coach (when the previous coach received widespread hatred despite much better results) is both patronizing to a millionaire and a sad commentary on the state of Gopher basketball fans.

Widespread hatred. That’s funny.

Though I did think Tubby should’ve been fired after 2011 season. Witnessed one of the most pathetic home court performances every by the Gophers in a late season blowout lost to IU. That was enough for me.

I would think Pitino needs a postseason berth to save his job. Another bottom half of the conference finish and no postseason should end it for him at the U.

 

[bizzle22]

Who said this? Pitino will ultimately be fired or extended based on those factors. Not every coaching situation is cut and dry. Many thought the Gophers overachieved when they won the NIT in year 1. Pitino's struggles in year 3 were partially because Tubby left him nothing for underclassmen and partially because Pitino missed on some early recruits, which was a part of learning on the job.

If you don't think the Gophers future is brighter entering year 6 of Pitino, than it was in year 6 of Tubby, then you're not paying attention. Giving Pitino one year longer than Tubby got for the factors I mentioned in my original post will be the reality.

If you think our future is brighter because of recruiting rankings then I got some oceanfront property in Albert Lea to sell you. Kids transfer, get injured, go through a mental breakdown when their girlfriend cheats on them, or don't pan for many reasons. Unlike the stock market, the best predictor of success in college basketball is past success. Tubby never had any super highly ranked recruiting classes, but he still put some good teams on the court. Heck, we were ranked in the top 10 for multiple weeks in his final season. Everybody got so wrapped up in the recruiting rankings and didn't pay attention to what was happening right in front of them.

If we don't make the post-season (It should be NCAA tournament, but NIT might be just enough for him to survive.) then he should absolutely be fired. Making the post-season two times in 6 years would get most coaches fired unless they are at a program like Penn State or Rutgers. Again, as dp has been pointing out -- we fired a coach immediately after he made the NCAA Round of 32. If the next coach can't get us back to that point in six years on the job then it is indisputable that the new coach has taken the program backwards. That's just reality.

 

[dpodoll68]

If you guys think "widespread hatred" is an inaccurate characterization of the general fan sentiment toward Tubby in his latter years here, you didn't visit this message board ca. 2011-2013, have a piss-poor memory, are lying, or some combination of the above. "Thinly veiled contempt" might be the most apt descriptor.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

If you think our future is brighter because of recruiting rankings then I got some oceanfront property in Albert Lea to sell you. Kids transfer, get injured, go through a mental breakdown when their girlfriend cheats on them, or don't pan for many reasons. Unlike the stock market, the best predictor of success in college basketball is past success. Tubby never had any super highly ranked recruiting classes, but he still put some good teams on the court. Heck, we were ranked in the top 10 for multiple weeks in his final season. Everybody got so wrapped up in the recruiting rankings and didn't pay attention to what was happening right in front of them.

If we don't make the post-season (It should be NCAA tournament, but NIT might be just enough for him to survive.) then he should absolutely be fired. Making the post-season two times in 6 years would get most coaches fired unless they are at a program like Penn State or Rutgers. Again, as dp has been pointing out -- we fired a coach immediately after he made the NCAA Round of 32. If the next coach can't get us back to that point in six years on the job then it is indisputable that the new coach has taken the program backwards. That's just reality.

He didn't? According to 247, his first recruiting class was ranked 26th in the country. His second was ranked 10th in the country. Tubby was recruiting very well when he arrived on campus, then it tailed off dramatically.

Higher rated recruits = a higher likelihood of winning. That's a fact.

 

[cjbfbp]

Correct. And it's why we all know that Steve Alford and Sean Miller are superior coaches to Jay Wright. Those actual basketball games and national championships don't mean anything if you can't bring in a top 10 recruiting class.

That's amusing and too-the-point as well. I looked through the RSCI rankings for the past four years or so the other day. I was surprised how few highly ranked players Villanova actually recruited. Mikal Bridges, who is expected to be a top 10 pick in the 2018 draft, was in the top 100 but he wasn't high in that group. Dante Divincenzo, who had the great NCAA tournament and is expected to be a 1st rounder as a soph, wasn't in the top 100.

 

[alchemy2u]

If you guys think "widespread hatred" is an inaccurate characterization of the general fan sentiment toward Tubby in his latter years here, you didn't visit this message board ca. 2011-2013, have a piss-poor memory, are lying, or some combination of the above. "Thinly veiled contempt" might be the most apt descriptor.

Let me nominate this for most outlandish post of the week! Typical over exaggeration by those that want to prop up Tubby and cut down the current coaches. It is just a beating drum from the same few posters.



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[cjbfbp]

Because if we don't get there this season, I feel strongly we will get at least that far if not further next season. .

Sorry, that's not good enough. If he doesn't make a postseason (at least the NIT - and probably win a game or two in that tournament), he should be fired - period. If he can't do better than that after six years, he's not the guy. Are you afraid all the players will leave? Why? We only lost one player when Tubby was fired.

 

[Cayman]

Sorry, that's not good enough. If he doesn't make a postseason (at least the NIT - and probably win a game or two in that tournament), he should be fired - period. If he can't do better than that after six years, he's not the guy. Are you afraid all the players will leave? Why? We only lost one player when Tubby was fired.

To be fair, there is the possibility of the rule change where, if your coach is fired, you are allowed to transfer without sitting out. That might lead to more transfers. We also lost both of Tubby's incoming 2013 recruits. I think they both left before Pitino was even hired. Granted they weren't great players, but Pitino has gotten at least one 4 star commit each of the last 4 recruiting cycles, so it's possible we end up in a situation where we have a top 100 commit who ends up being one of the biggest prizes of the 2019 spring recruiting scene, where all the high majors with an open spot are looking for the best player available, so he leaves us and reopens his recruitment. We have 4 scholarships for 2019, and, assuming we don't get Matthew Hurt, it looks like at least 2 of them would be going to out of state players who are committing more to Pitino than to the school, and could decommit if Pitino is fired.

I'm not saying that Pitino absolutely needs to be retained to preserve what I imagine will be another solid but not incredible recruiting class, but even if no one on the current roster transfers, I think there's a decent possibility of a lost year of recruiting in which Pitino's hypothetical replacement has to scramble and fill a class with JuCo's, lightly recruited freshmen, and maybe a decent grad transfer. That's probably worth it if you believe Pitino is just never going to get it done, but I think it's fair to think that the roster will indeed take a hit in the short run if he's fired, either from transfers or decommits.

I do think that if we get some positive karma from last year and avoid the injury bug, Pitino will earn himself a 7th year and all of this will be moot.

 

[cjbfbp]

I do think that if we get some positive karma from last year and avoid the injury bug, Pitino will earn himself a 7th year and all of this will be moot.

Agreed. But, fear of the future is never a good reason to keep a coach who isn't doing the job, particularly for an institution that didn't let those concerns stand in the way of firing a 9-4 football coach and a basketball coach who earned 5 postseasons in 6 years.

 

[cjbfbp]

Agreed. But, fear of the future is never a good reason to keep a coach who isn't doing the job, particularly for an institution that didn't let those concerns stand in the way of firing a 9-4 football coach and a basketball coach who earned 5 postseasons in 6 years.

P.S., as far as that possible rule allowing players from programs with fired coaches to have unrestricted transfers-out, I think the NCAA would have a tough time passing that one unless they also allowed the reverse: unrestricted transfers-in.

 

[bizzle22]

To be fair, there is the possibility of the rule change where, if your coach is fired, you are allowed to transfer without sitting out. That might lead to more transfers. We also lost both of Tubby's incoming 2013 recruits. I think they both left before Pitino was even hired. Granted they weren't great players, but Pitino has gotten at least one 4 star commit each of the last 4 recruiting cycles, so it's possible we end up in a situation where we have a top 100 commit who ends up being one of the biggest prizes of the 2019 spring recruiting scene, where all the high majors with an open spot are looking for the best player available, so he leaves us and reopens his recruitment. We have 4 scholarships for 2019, and, assuming we don't get Matthew Hurt, it looks like at least 2 of them would be going to out of state players who are committing more to Pitino than to the school, and could decommit if Pitino is fired.

I'm not saying that Pitino absolutely needs to be retained to preserve what I imagine will be another solid but not incredible recruiting class, but even if no one on the current roster transfers, I think there's a decent possibility of a lost year of recruiting in which Pitino's hypothetical replacement has to scramble and fill a class with JuCo's, lightly recruited freshmen, and maybe a decent grad transfer. That's probably worth it if you believe Pitino is just never going to get it done, but I think it's fair to think that the roster will indeed take a hit in the short run if he's fired, either from transfers or decommits.

I do think that if we get some positive karma from last year and avoid the injury bug, Pitino will earn himself a 7th year and all of this will be moot.

I honestly don't think anyone would be leaving if Pitino were not to remain our coach in 2019-2020. At least not anyone who wasn't going to leave anyways.
McBrayer, Murphy, Stull, and Stockman would be out of eligibility.
Omersa, Oturu, and Kalscheur -- all hometown recruits who would have playing time open up for them based on who is graduating.
Carr and Willis -- would be looking at a second transfer.
Coffey -- isn't going anywhere. His dad has disagreed with how Amir has been used at times so if anything he might welcome a new voice if we go through another unsuccessful year.
Hurt -- probably wouldn't have many options unless he wanted to go the mid-major route.
Curry -- not sure, but he seems to like it here.
Washington -- If he has a bad year and his PT dips I could see him leaving anyways, but Kimani was the main connection to him and he didn't leave when Kimani jumped ship. Going to have every opportunity to entrench himself as the starting PG for the next three years.
2019 recruits -- impossible to know since we don't know who they are, but if this class includes some local guys they are much more likely to stick with their commitments. Also may depend if the new coach keeps the assistants with whom they've developed relationships. Not to mention that the new coach would maybe have their own recruiting connections and could flip guys late. But impossible to know. Also depends how quickly the hire goes down. Coyle has generally handled coaching hires pretty swiftly.

 

[bizzle22]

He didn't? According to 247, his first recruiting class was ranked 26th in the country. His second was ranked 10th in the country. Tubby was recruiting very well when he arrived on campus, then it tailed off dramatically.

Higher rated recruits = a higher likelihood of winning. That's a fact.

That was basically due to a flaw in the 247 ranking system. The ranking system gives points based on the number of recruits you get.

For example, Duke's 2009 recruiting class had an average rating of .9916. Our 2009 recruiting class had an average rating of .8512. Ours was ranked 10th and Duke's was ranked 20th. Doesn't make sense right? The reason was that Duke's class included 2 players and ours included 9. To take it a step further, our 2011 class had an average rating of .9376 (significantly higher than our 2009 class) and was ranked 54th in the country. Only included two players.

This is a great example of why it is silly to pay attention to recruiting rankings.

 

[Angrygopher1]

I honestly don't think anyone would be leaving if Pitino were not to remain our coach in 2019-2020. At least not anyone who wasn't going to leave anyways.
McBrayer, Murphy, Stull, and Stockman would be out of eligibility.
Omersa, Oturu, and Kalscheur -- all hometown recruits who would have playing time open up for them based on who is graduating.
Carr and Willis -- would be looking at a second transfer.
Coffey -- isn't going anywhere. His dad has disagreed with how Amir has been used at times so if anything he might welcome a new voice if we go through another unsuccessful year.
Hurt -- probably wouldn't have many options unless he wanted to go the mid-major route.
Curry -- not sure, but he seems to like it here.
Washington -- If he has a bad year and his PT dips I could see him leaving anyways, but Kimani was the main connection to him and he didn't leave when Kimani jumped ship. Going to have every opportunity to entrench himself as the starting PG for the next three years.
2019 recruits -- impossible to know since we don't know who they are, but if this class includes some local guys they are much more likely to stick with their commitments. Also may depend if the new coach keeps the assistants with whom they've developed relationships. Not to mention that the new coach would maybe have their own recruiting connections and could flip guys late. But impossible to know. Also depends how quickly the hire goes down. Coyle has generally handled coaching hires pretty swiftly.

Hurt could possibly graduate after this year and transfer it we do not get his brother. He may want to get his master's at a high end D1 school, maybe a Catholic school.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

That was basically due to a flaw in the 247 ranking system. The ranking system gives points based on the number of recruits you get.

For example, Duke's 2009 recruiting class had an average rating of .9916. Our 2009 recruiting class had an average rating of .8512. Ours was ranked 10th and Duke's was ranked 20th. Doesn't make sense right? The reason was that Duke's class included 2 players and ours included 9. To take it a step further, our 2011 class had an average rating of .9376 (significantly higher than our 2009 class) and was ranked 54th in the country. Only included two players.

This is a great example of why it is silly to pay attention to recruiting rankings.

So you're saying number of recruits doesn't matter? So if a team just landed the #1 recruit every year, they would have the highest average and therefore should have the #1 recruiting class? That doesn't make any sense.

Simple statistics have proven that recruiting rankings do matter. It's silly to disregard math.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Sorry, that's not good enough. If he doesn't make a postseason (at least the NIT - and probably win a game or two in that tournament), he should be fired - period. If he can't do better than that after six years, he's not the guy. Are you afraid all the players will leave? Why? We only lost one player when Tubby was fired.

I'm not afraid of players leaving at all and never mentioned that. I think if they do miss the NIT, Pitino could be in trouble. I was more so talking about missing the NCAA. I think next year's team is at least a NIT team, and a bubble NCAA team. Like I mentioned, I also believe the foundation is there for a lot of future success. Why would I want to start over again? This is Minnesota and it means taking another chance on a young coach who likely needs to prove himself at this level. Tubby only came here because he was on his way to being fired at Kentucky.

 

[bizzle22]

So you're saying number of recruits doesn't matter? So if a team just landed the #1 recruit every year, they would have the highest average and therefore should have the #1 recruiting class? That doesn't make any sense.

Simple statistics have proven that recruiting rankings do matter. It's silly to disregard math.

Never said it should only be based on average, though I'll almost always take a higher average rating in a class over a higher ranked class. I'm simply saying that there is a clear flaw (that I think most anyone who follows recruiting is aware of) in the 247 team rankings. If you have a year with more scholarships available then you'll automatically be ranked higher in the rankings because you get more points in the ranking system for having more recruits. A class of one 4* and four 3* will rank ahead of a class of just two 4*, even though I think most would rather fill two of two available scholarships with 4* players than one of five.

I never said recruiting rankings don't matter at all. Just that they shouldn't be a factor in determining job performance. And as far as determining whether or not the future is brighter, I think the future looks bright when you have an established coach who has repeatedly shown he can get teams into the tournament and win a game there. If he has a highly ranked class coming in then all the better, but if you have the coach in place who can get it done then your future is bright. I go back to my Jay Wright vs Steve Alford example -- Alford has had the better ranked recruiting classes of the two in each of the last four years, but I'm still picking Nova over UCLA and it's not even close. Going by your logic the future is brighter at UCLA than it is at Nova.