Statistically, Gophers have a 25% chance of winning the West Division

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This thread needs input from Dr. Don to straighten everyone out.
 


DrSwerve1978 said:
50/50 chance to win any game = 50% or 1/2

1/2 to win each game -> 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4 = 25%

Mathematically, our chance to win any two games in a row is 25%. There are other factors that can make that number go up or down, but most of those factors are subjective and not quantifiable.
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So you'd take 4:1 Odds on a $100 bet?
 


maroonedinCA said:
Can you stake your reputation to a few more things that you'll ultimately be wrong about?
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FTR, I staked my <b>GopherHole</b> reputation and if you cant see the sarcasm in that statement than I guess it is lost on you. Hell, it is making a joke at my own expense - you should have loved it.

My reputation and my GH reputation (where I make predictions about games and rankings) are two different things. Since you are so interested in exact accuracy in how things are written, you should get it right. Now, don't you have a Badger game saved on your DVR to go watch?
 




The 25% chance assumes that the Gophers have a 50% chance of winning each of the final two games. All you have to do is multiply the percentage chance of the Gophers winning each game to get the percentage chance of winning the division. The other games really aren't a factor since we have to win both and we don't need anyone else to lose those other games. Thus, 50% * 50% = 25%. Another example, if you think the Gophers have a 60% chance of beating Nebraska and a 30% chance of beating Wisconsin then they have am 18% chance of winning the division.
 

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