Statistically, Gophers have a 25% chance of winning the West Division

Donate To GopherHole
Go Gophers Rah

Go Gophers Rah

Section 238 Row 21
Joined
Nov 13, 2008
Messages
2,374
Reaction score
195
Points
63
Check out this spreadsheet: http://mostdopesports.wordpress.com/2014/11/16/updated-b1g-west-division-title-routes/

With the two remaining games left for the Gophers, wisconsin, Iowa and Neraska, there are 16 possible outcomes to the Division race: of those, here are the number of ways each team can win the Division and go on to Indy:

wisconsin: 8
Minnesota: 4
Iowa: 3
Nebraska: 1

Maybe someone with better internet skills can post the entire spreadsheet for viewing.
 

58669-so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-c-Sm9B.gif
 

Here is the easiest predictor. We win this Saturday and we have a 50/50 chance of winning the Division. We lose this Saturday and we have a 0% chance of winning the division.
 

This is the plus side of a 2 division conference. We would have 0% chance in the old Big Ten.
 

According to Devondre Campbell, it's a 100% chance. I'll go with him! ;)
 


GopherFanatic19 said:
Here is the easiest predictor. We win this Saturday and we have a 50/50 chance of winning the Division. We lose this Saturday and we have a 0% chance of winning the division.
Click to expand...

That's why 50% + 0% / 2 = 25%. Go figure.
 

I read that with current odd setters its 8%.

Win out and we are in. Simple as that.
 


All you can ask is a chance. Win 2 and it's ours.
 



Gophers win out and they win the division title, simple as that. Given that this is true, calculating the Gophers percent chance of winning the B1G West should be as simple as multiplying the win probabilities of the two games together, assuming they are independent of each other.

In an attempt to be objective let's put the Gophers win probability at 35% in Lincoln this weekend and 25% in Wisconsin the following the weekend. Those two inputs of 35% and 25% will surely be higher than what most computer models expect. And when multiplied together .35*.25 = 8.75%.

That being said, I'm captaining the Gophers bandwagon and think Nebraska this weekend is a coin-flip and at Wisconsin I think we have a better chance than most give us credit for, so I'll call our win probability in that game at 40%. Basic math here: .5*.4 = 20%.

In summary, in my humble opinion our chances of winning the division are less than 1/4 and probably lie somewhere between 8% and 20%.
 

Having control over our destiny is huge. Who wouldn't have taken that before the season began? This team has been through quite a developmental process, mentally and emotionally, this season. I think we are primed, motivated and talented enough to pull this off -- much more so than last season's group.
 

Doesn't the 25% assume each game is a coin-flip, while not taking into consideration favorite/underdog status?

Debbie Downer post of the day.
 

BarnBoy said:
Doesn't the 25% assume each game is a coin-flip, while not taking into consideration favorite/underdog status?

Debbie Downer post of the day.
Click to expand...

Yes. Yes it does. Of course, there are people that will tell you that every game is 50/50 and past results can't be used to predict future results with any degree of accuracy ... :rolleyes:
 



Controlling Destiny

killme said:
Having control over our destiny is huge. Who wouldn't have taken that before the season began?
Click to expand...

Before the season began we were in control over our destiny. We have the most difficult path since both of these games are on the road, but we are one of only two teams that don't need help in the west.
 

BarnBoy said:
Doesn't the 25% assume each game is a coin-flip, while not taking into consideration favorite/underdog status?

Debbie Downer post of the day.
Click to expand...

The 25% isnt the likelihood of the Gophers winning the West. It's the percentage of possibile outcomes that show the Gophers winning the West.
 

The goal right now isn't winning 2 in a row. The goal is simply to beat Nebraska. Do that and it's just really cool to think that the Gophers will have so much at stake in the final game, much more than just the Axe.
 

cjcarter8 said:
The 25% isnt the likelihood of the Gophers winning the West. It's the percentage of possibile outcomes that show the Gophers winning the West.
Click to expand...

Other than the fact that the thread title states explicitly that it relates to their chances of winning the West and not their share of potential outcomes.
 

maroonedinCA said:
Other than the fact that the thread title states explicitly that it relates to their chances of winning the West and not their share of potential outcomes.
Click to expand...

The Badgers have a better chance. There - that is what you were looking for, right?
 


Iowa could be our secret weapon. They have Wisconsin this week, and Nebraska to end the season. If they win out. The possibilities are endless.
 

husker70 said:
Iowa could be our secret weapon. They have Wisconsin this week, and Nebraska to end the season. If they win out. The possibilities are endless.
Click to expand...

Why? We have to win the last 2 no matter what.
 

Spoofin said:
The Badgers have a better chance. There - that is what you were looking for, right?
Click to expand...

Still waiting. You seem to always be all over my posts until I call you out on your lack of any meaningful contribution to the conversation and them you run off. Not able to follow a conversation?
 


maroonedinCA said:
Still waiting. You seem to always be all over my posts until I call you out on your lack of any meaningful contribution to the conversation and them you run off. Not able to follow a conversation?
Click to expand...

Run Off? Funny. Spent an hour studying with my 11-year old. He is more important to me than you. If you must know, where you went wrong was calling out the OP's point of the thread when you knew, they knew, I knew, the girl next door knew, and everyone else knew what he meant. His wording may have not been perfect, but what we all knew what he meant.
 

maroonedinCA said:
Other than the fact that the thread title states explicitly that it relates to their chances of winning the West and not their share of potential outcomes.
Click to expand...

That's true. However, any intelligent human that read the first post would have realized the intent.
 

husker70 said:
Iowa could be our secret weapon. They have Wisconsin this week, and Nebraska to end the season. If they win out. The possibilities are endless.
Click to expand...

Nope. If Iowa wins out, and we lose one of the games, they win the division. Wisconsin can clinch this week with a win and Nebraska beating us. Obviously if we win this week, then nothing is decided until next week. Let's go win this game and know we are playing for a division title next week.
 

Spoofin said:
Run Off? Funny. Spent an hour studying with my 11-year old. He is more important to me than you. If you must know, where you went wrong was calling out the OP's point of the thread when you knew, they knew, I knew, the girl next door knew, and everyone else knew what he meant. His wording may have not been perfect, but what we all knew what he meant.
Click to expand...

So I'm the idiot when the OP made a mistake? And when I simply supported someone else that corrected him? My whole point was that his wording wasn't perfect. I couldn't care less about your interpretation. The OP was wrong. Can you stake your reputation to a few more things that you'll ultimately be wrong about?
 

50/50 chance to win any game = 50% or 1/2

1/2 to win each game -> 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4 = 25%

Mathematically, our chance to win any two games in a row is 25%. There are other factors that can make that number go up or down, but most of those factors are subjective and not quantifiable.
 

cjcarter8 said:
The 25% isnt the likelihood of the Gophers winning the West. It's the percentage of possibile outcomes that show the Gophers winning the West.
Click to expand...

I know that. But look at the title of the post.
 

goldybobblehead said:
Before the season began we were in control over our destiny. We have the most difficult path since both of these games are on the road, but we are one of only two teams that don't need help in the west.
Click to expand...

lol. I should have been more clear: having control over our chances to win the west with 2 games to play...
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom