State of the offense

EG#9

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I had a chance to watch parts of a number of bowl games over the past couple of weeks and it really had me thinking about the Gophers offense. Most of us are aware that the stats show that are passing offense is anemic, but watching a wide variety of teams play really hammered home how behind we are in my mind.

Wide Receiver: Maybe even more than QB, it stood out to me how unimpressive our group is compared to other teams around the country. Maybe this is a bad take and poor QB play and/or poor scheme is really making our WR's look worse than they are. I saw a lot of teams with a speed guy that could get behind the defense, I see guys with great burst that get a lot of separation, and I see guys breaking tackles and making explosive plays. I think our receivers post Bateman/Johnson have been OK in the B1G West (behind the groups at Purdue and Nebraska, usually on par or above many other schools) but pretty terrible in relation to big time college football as a whole. I think Daniel Jackson is a great technician and a WR most teams would love to have, but we need some guys who win with speed and quickness too.

Quarterback: I know the story was Cole Kramer was getting married, but this was a long time backup QB who was often our #2 QB who threw for like 28 yards on 16 attempts against a MAC team missing both its starting corners. There were many other teams starting QB's making their first start who had not been in college 4/5 years and they were putting up passing stats that belonged in the 2020's as opposed to the 1920's. Athan's season long struggles were well documented, and Tanner's best year post 2019 could be best described as average. To have a QB room that has been this bad for this long is alarming.

Offensive Line: I thnk our pass protection might be a sneaky big problem with this team in recent seasons. We give up so much pressure and it's especially concerning when it comes on a play action pass that comes in a non-obvious situation. Ersery didn't even lay a hand on a Bowling Green pass rusher on the play that resulted in Kramer's interception. Against Illinois, Carroll had a similar whiff in the red zone that forced us to settle for a FG.

Explosive plays: This could go back to the WR issue and be a talent problem. However even at RB, Taylor ran 35 times against a MAC team and his long run was 17 yards! Against real competition, that's not going to be a winning combination. Our longest play of the game was a Kramer scramble for 33 yards. Watching the top teams play and almost every scoring drive seemingly had a play of 25 plus yards.

Scheme: This has been a constant for a number of years, so I don't want to make this a Harbaugh problem but our playbook seems so limited compared to what you see elsewhere. Some of that could be teams opening it up for a bowl game and another part could be just being very familiar with Minnesota's offense and not so familiar with other teams. When you combine this observation with the fact that we look lost any time we are in a must pass and/or hurry up situation and it concerns me that we're spending a whole lof of time on inside zone and not much time on anything else.

I hope PJ/Harbaugh/Simon don't feel like Max Brosmer will fix all that currently ails us.
 

To have a QB room that has been this bad for this long is alarming.

I think almost every team ... doesn't even know what their QB room is like until they hit the field. How many times do we hear about guys who are great in practice? Nobody knows what they got. All you need is one great QB and you're in good shape and almost everyone is one QB down from being not gud, even if they think otherwise.

Otherwise I have trouble buying into any criticism revolving around a bowl game with Cole starting. Should we have been more aggressive (he actually took some shots IIRC) with him and maybe given them the ball back? Outside the first BG TD the game was largely in hand .... I think you keep the game that way, get the win, move on with the rest of the team after that.
 

I had a chance to watch parts of a number of bowl games over the past couple of weeks and it really had me thinking about the Gophers offense. Most of us are aware that the stats show that are passing offense is anemic, but watching a wide variety of teams play really hammered home how behind we are in my mind.

Wide Receiver: Maybe even more than QB, it stood out to me how unimpressive our group is compared to other teams around the country. Maybe this is a bad take and poor QB play and/or poor scheme is really making our WR's look worse than they are. I saw a lot of teams with a speed guy that could get behind the defense, I see guys with great burst that get a lot of separation, and I see guys breaking tackles and making explosive plays. I think our receivers post Bateman/Johnson have been OK in the B1G West (behind the groups at Purdue and Nebraska, usually on par or above many other schools) but pretty terrible in relation to big time college football as a whole. I think Daniel Jackson is a great technician and a WR most teams would love to have, but we need some guys who win with speed and quickness too.

Quarterback: I know the story was Cole Kramer was getting married, but this was a long time backup QB who was often our #2 QB who threw for like 28 yards on 16 attempts against a MAC team missing both its starting corners. There were many other teams starting QB's making their first start who had not been in college 4/5 years and they were putting up passing stats that belonged in the 2020's as opposed to the 1920's. Athan's season long struggles were well documented, and Tanner's best year post 2019 could be best described as average. To have a QB room that has been this bad for this long is alarming.

Offensive Line: I thnk our pass protection might be a sneaky big problem with this team in recent seasons. We give up so much pressure and it's especially concerning when it comes on a play action pass that comes in a non-obvious situation. Ersery didn't even lay a hand on a Bowling Green pass rusher on the play that resulted in Kramer's interception. Against Illinois, Carroll had a similar whiff in the red zone that forced us to settle for a FG.

Explosive plays: This could go back to the WR issue and be a talent problem. However even at RB, Taylor ran 35 times against a MAC team and his long run was 17 yards! Against real competition, that's not going to be a winning combination. Our longest play of the game was a Kramer scramble for 33 yards. Watching the top teams play and almost every scoring drive seemingly had a play of 25 plus yards.

Scheme: This has been a constant for a number of years, so I don't want to make this a Harbaugh problem but our playbook seems so limited compared to what you see elsewhere. Some of that could be teams opening it up for a bowl game and another part could be just being very familiar with Minnesota's offense and not so familiar with other teams. When you combine this observation with the fact that we look lost any time we are in a must pass and/or hurry up situation and it concerns me that we're spending a whole lof of time on inside zone and not much time on anything else.

I hope PJ/Harbaugh/Simon don't feel like Max Brosmer will fix all that currently ails us.
There is no doubt the offense has left a lot to be desired and Athan was a pretty massive bust last year.

But specifically to the QB thing....what we have not had at that position is a true difference maker and we are not alone in struggling to find that guy. There are very few really good QBs out there in the college and pro game. The teams that have those guys tend to be the ones that do really well, the ones that don't have to rely on other factors to excel.

The big thing we have going for us on the offensive side of the ball is that we can usually run the ball effectively meaning if we can find the QB and WR to provide a decent passing game we have a shot at having a really good offense.

Post 2019 the offense hasn't been great and 2023 was a disaster on that side of the ball due to injuries and poor QB play. Will be interesting to see what Brosmer brings to the table for 2024 to go along with a healthy Taylor, Jackson, Brockington and others. There is some talent in the skill positions if we can get the needed QB play to really make it all go.
 

I think these are all fair assessments and concerns. I agree that our pass blocking can be rough at times, which sometimes is a reflection of teams knowing when you might be passing or coming heavy after the run.

Accuracy of the QB I think is a huge factor in making WR room better, but I struggle with us not having any big targets in the room.

We will be getting a new TE coach, so that will be interesting to see if there is any other shuffling on the offensive staff.

There is still portal addition room on this roster and Fleck is making offers.
 



When I see some of the other bowl teams play it is like their offense is at a level several times higher than ours for decades.

The only Gopher QB I can think of that had some serious pre-season NFL draft discussion was Liedner. Maybe Weber, but watching him short hop receivers told most anybody that wasn't going to work and Decker was amazing making Weber look better!

More than our offensive scheme we have had some really good college RB's. Mo got yards on nearly every carry, often out of nothing. Cobb was very good. RB's we seem to find.

The bowl teams design plays that worked because they fooled, schemed, tricked, executed a well designed play that made the defense think it was something that it wasn't. We don't do that.

100% biggest part of why stuff works is a really good QB. We need Brosmer to play well enough to be at least a 5th round draft pick and we'll be good on offense.
 

A new offensive line coach will make our QB play better.
A bit of the chicken and egg debate. We only averaged 4.1 per carry, but we couldn't pass the ball and had a bunch of RB injuries. The amount of OL we have the our ability to recruit them I think we are ok with the coach. I'm more concerned with our WR and QB development.
 

A new offensive line coach will make our QB play better.
I'll disagree with that take. Our guy has put several guys in the NFL. Our O-Line is pretty solid.
We don't often start with 5 stars. Carroll wasn't playing at Notre Dame and he's all Big Ten at Minnesota.
Roy is highly rated...let's see how that goes. Daniel was highly rated and was a high draft pick.
 

I had a chance to watch parts of a number of bowl games over the past couple of weeks and it really had me thinking about the Gophers offense. Most of us are aware that the stats show that are passing offense is anemic, but watching a wide variety of teams play really hammered home how behind we are in my mind.

Wide Receiver: Maybe even more than QB, it stood out to me how unimpressive our group is compared to other teams around the country. Maybe this is a bad take and poor QB play and/or poor scheme is really making our WR's look worse than they are. I saw a lot of teams with a speed guy that could get behind the defense, I see guys with great burst that get a lot of separation, and I see guys breaking tackles and making explosive plays. I think our receivers post Bateman/Johnson have been OK in the B1G West (behind the groups at Purdue and Nebraska, usually on par or above many other schools) but pretty terrible in relation to big time college football as a whole. I think Daniel Jackson is a great technician and a WR most teams would love to have, but we need some guys who win with speed and quickness too.

Quarterback: I know the story was Cole Kramer was getting married, but this was a long time backup QB who was often our #2 QB who threw for like 28 yards on 16 attempts against a MAC team missing both its starting corners. There were many other teams starting QB's making their first start who had not been in college 4/5 years and they were putting up passing stats that belonged in the 2020's as opposed to the 1920's. Athan's season long struggles were well documented, and Tanner's best year post 2019 could be best described as average. To have a QB room that has been this bad for this long is alarming.

Offensive Line: I thnk our pass protection might be a sneaky big problem with this team in recent seasons. We give up so much pressure and it's especially concerning when it comes on a play action pass that comes in a non-obvious situation. Ersery didn't even lay a hand on a Bowling Green pass rusher on the play that resulted in Kramer's interception.
Ersery?
Really??
He’s being called out for one snap???
Despite being first team All-B10 and being ranked the Best B10 OL this season by PFF. No this is not my opinion, this is based on cumulative data; that’s why you don’t cherry pick data (one snap), as it leads to an invalid hypothesis.

He’s going to play on Sundays, be a high round draft pick and if he doesn’t get hurt, will likely be in the running for All-American status in 2024. He’s a fing stud and it wouldn’t surprise me, if he was the most coveted returning player on our roster by other

From the article which appeared on Gophersports.com, which I posted in a thread.

Four Named to AP All-Big Ten Teams - University of Minnesota Athletics

Ersery, Kesich, Nubin named to First team, while Jackson earned Second Team honors.

The Associated Press announced its AP All-Big Ten Football Teams today and four Gophers were honored. Offensive tackle Aireontae Ersery, defensive back Tyler Nubin and kicker Dragan Kesich were named to the First Team, while receiver Daniel Jackson was placed on the Second Team.

Ersery has started all 12 games this year at left tackle. According to PFF, he allowed just three sacks and 13 total pressures in 779 snaps on offense. He is the Big Ten's top-graded lineman at 81.0. That grade also ranks eighth among FBS tackles and 16th for all offensive linemen. Ersery also leads the Big Ten, is sixth among FBS tackles and 14th overall along the o-line with a run block grade of 80.6.
Against Illinois, Carroll had a similar whiff in the red zone that forced us to settle for a FG.

Explosive plays: This could go back to the WR issue and be a talent problem. However even at RB, Taylor ran 35 times against a MAC team and his long run was 17 yards! Against real competition, that's not going to be a winning combination. Our longest play of the game was a Kramer scramble for 33 yards. Watching the top teams play and almost every scoring drive seemingly had a play of 25 plus yards.

Scheme: This has been a constant for a number of years, so I don't want to make this a Harbaugh problem but our playbook seems so limited compared to what you see elsewhere. Some of that could be teams opening it up for a bowl game and another part could be just being very familiar with Minnesota's offense and not so familiar with other teams. When you combine this observation with the fact that we look lost any time we are in a must pass and/or hurry up situation and it concerns me that we're spending a whole lof of time on inside zone and not much time on anything else.

I hope PJ/Harbaugh/Simon don't feel like Max Brosmer will fix all that currently ails us.
 



I think these are all fair assessments and concerns. I agree that our pass blocking can be rough at times, which sometimes is a reflection of teams knowing when you might be passing or coming heavy after the run.

Accuracy of the QB I think is a huge factor in making WR room better, but I struggle with us not having any big targets in the room.

We will be getting a new TE coach, so that will be interesting to see if there is any other shuffling on the offensive staff.

There is still portal addition room on this roster and Fleck is making offers.

I think part of the pass blocking issue we saw is teams run blitzing at will on early downs knowing there was low probability of getting burned in the passing game. When the QB can't accurately connect on a quick intermediate crossing route, the options go way down. Pass blocking on 3rd and long with a subpar passing game is no picnic.
 

Compare the first half offense to the second half offense, in more than a couple 2023 games.

NW, ILL, MSU.

First half - relatively prolific.
Second half - morbid.


Why?

The answer to that is your core, fundamental answer.

Fleck and his control/meddling/constraining of the offense.

End.Of.Fing.Story.


It’s on him.


If he is capable of changing that, we can improve.
If he can’t, we can’t.
 

I think part of the pass blocking issue we saw is teams run blitzing at will on early downs knowing there was low probability of getting burned in the passing game. When the QB can't accurately connect on a quick intermediate crossing route, the options go way down. Pass blocking on 3rd and long with a subpar passing game is no picnic.
Agreed, when we call a play for a quick pass to the TE because we know they're going to blitz and the TE is open and QB STILL can't make that throw ... there's no reason for the defense to quit blitzing, so now the OL is outnumbered constantly.

Dude makes that throws the blitzing dies down and protection looks a hell of a lot better.
 

Nor sure if this pasted graphic will be legible here, but...

Interesting that PFF graded Minnesota's offense #4 in the conference in aggregate pretty much fully based on the strength of the run game. Passing alone was graded #11.

As much as we fans bitch about offense, the defense may have had a bigger impact on the won-loss record at #11 in aggregate. Run defense and tackling at #14 were the worst graded in the conference (kinda important for defense) while pass rush was surprisingly decent at #4 and coverage at #10. It's almost like Rossi mailed it in early as the last four games were very rough on defense.

Edit add: Special teams were graded #13 in conference. Not a surprise.

1704384175183.png
 



^^ also glosses over 2nd half offense
 

^^ also glosses over 2nd half offense

Take a look at the split stats for the QB in 2023.

1704385283262.png

Any fan who watched the games knew that AK had trouble completing drives when it counted most in the second half. I recall one good drive near the end of the Nebraska game to go ahead, but not much else good late in close games. A little better play from the QB late in the IL and NW games results in two more wins. If Rutgers gets just the first half version of AK, they get the steal of the century.
 

I’m telling you, it was Fleck.

He is responsible for how bad the offense was in the 2nd half, which is the story of the offense this year.

No he didn’t make AK miss throws. Not saying that. That’s on AK.

But he stepped on the throat of calling pass plays in the 2nd half. His boot.

Would guess we had far more 3rd and longs in 2nd half, because of that (after two low yardage run calls).
 

I’m telling you, it was Fleck.

He is responsible for how bad the offense was in the 2nd half, which is the story of the offense this year.

No he didn’t make AK miss throws. Not saying that. That’s on AK.

But he stepped on the throat of calling pass plays in the 2nd half. His boot.

Would guess we had far more 3rd and longs in 2nd half, because of that (after two low yardage run calls).

AK only had 10 more pass attempts in the first half than second half for a 51.7%/48.3% mix. That's hardly stepping on the throat of calling pass plays in the 2nd half. You almost need to commend (or criticize) the OC and Fleck for sticking with the pass game that much when the QB hasn't shown he can make plays when it counts.
 

Nor sure if this pasted graphic will be legible here, but...

Interesting that PFF graded Minnesota's offense #4 in the conference in aggregate pretty much fully based on the strength of the run game. Passing alone was graded #11.

As much as we fans bitch about offense, the defense may have had a bigger impact on the won-loss record at #11 in aggregate. Run defense and tackling at #14 were the worst graded in the conference (kinda important for defense) while pass rush was surprisingly decent at #4 and coverage at #10. It's almost like Rossi mailed it in early as the last four games were very rough on defense.

Edit add: Special teams were graded #13 in conference. Not a surprise.

View attachment 29345

I love information like this, thanks for sharing. I follow Parker Fleming (@statsowar) on twitter and a couple of his recent data viz graphs are relevant to this discussion.

First, our run defense last year combined average fits with bad tackling: https://x.com/statsowar/status/1742626199862640758?s=20

And here's a graph of QB's average depth of target and % of catchable passes thrown: https://x.com/statsowar/status/1742314315762561078?s=20

We tried to throw further down the field than average, but the passes were catchable a below average amount of time. This has obvious game-state effects, but also considerably reduces how explosive the offense is. Certainly pressure plays a factor here, so I'm not looking to re-litigate AK's play, just pointing out how the offense was designed/called.
 

Post 2019 the offense hasn't been great and 2023 was a disaster on that side of the ball due to injuries and poor QB play. Will be interesting to see what Brosmer brings to the table for 2024 to go along with a healthy Taylor, Jackson, Brockington and others. There is some talent in the skill positions if we can get the needed QB play to really make it all go.

I still think the team needs to recruit a quality transfer receiver. Much of the time, it seemed like Jackson was the only dependable WR we had. I think there will be more receptions available next season. I don't think Fleck would have gone after a QB who averaged 41 passing attempts per game last season, and I don't think that QB would have come here, if the plan was to have the QB average 22-24 passes per game next season.
 

Ersery?
Really??
He’s being called out for one snap???
Despite being first team All-B10 and being ranked the Best B10 OL this season by PFF. No this is not my opinion, this is based on cumulative data; that’s why you don’t cherry pick data (one snap), as it leads to an invalid hypothesis.

He’s going to play on Sundays, be a high round draft pick and if he doesn’t get hurt, will likely be in the running for All-American status in 2024. He’s a fing stud and it wouldn’t surprise me, if he was the most coveted returning player on our roster by other

From the article which appeared on Gophersports.com, which I posted in a thread.

Four Named to AP All-Big Ten Teams - University of Minnesota Athletics

Ersery, Kesich, Nubin named to First team, while Jackson earned Second Team honors.

The Associated Press announced its AP All-Big Ten Football Teams today and four Gophers were honored. Offensive tackle Aireontae Ersery, defensive back Tyler Nubin and kicker Dragan Kesich were named to the First Team, while receiver Daniel Jackson was placed on the Second Team.

Ersery has started all 12 games this year at left tackle. According to PFF, he allowed just three sacks and 13 total pressures in 779 snaps on offense. He is the Big Ten's top-graded lineman at 81.0. That grade also ranks eighth among FBS tackles and 16th for all offensive linemen. Ersery also leads the Big Ten, is sixth among FBS tackles and 14th overall along the o-line with a run block grade of 80.6.
Totally agree - every stud player gets beat from time to time.

In high school, I made multiple solo tackles on a guy who would go on to play D1 football and play in the NFL. Using the same logic, I should have also been in the NFL. Thankfully for my intramural flag football team, I did not have to miss any games because of scheduling conflicts.
 

AK only had 10 more pass attempts in the first half than second half for a 51.7%/48.3% mix.
This doesn’t seem even plausible let alone real.

Anyone watching the team this year can tell you it felt like the offense always died in the 2nd half.
 

I love information like this, thanks for sharing. I follow Parker Fleming (@statsowar) on twitter and a couple of his recent data viz graphs are relevant to this discussion.

First, our run defense last year combined average fits with bad tackling: https://x.com/statsowar/status/1742626199862640758?s=20

And here's a graph of QB's average depth of target and % of catchable passes thrown: https://x.com/statsowar/status/1742314315762561078?s=20

We tried to throw further down the field than average, but the passes were catchable a below average amount of time. This has obvious game-state effects, but also considerably reduces how explosive the offense is. Certainly pressure plays a factor here, so I'm not looking to re-litigate AK's play, just pointing out how the offense was designed/called.
Fits with bad tackling? Catchable passes?

These are some dude sitting back going “yep looks good” “nope don’t like it”.

Tough for me to accept subjective derivative stats from someone who isn’t an expert.

EDIT - first graph says no such thing. It’s just opponent YAC vs YBC, quite a reach to claim that’s what that says.
 


The offense will be 26% better just based on a competent QB. I'm confident we will have one
#ItsScience
 

You simply can’t win with poor QB play. We had guys wide open all over the field in the North Carolina game and each pass was an adventure. This game was an eye opener for me as I thought we had our guy. Our professional counterparts are demonstrating what happens with an abysmal Qb behind center. We could have easily been 7-5 if we had better than 53% accuracy from QB position
 

going back to the OP -

watching the Bowl Games and comparing those offenses to MN, the one word that really jumped out to me was.....

Creativity.

Creativity is a mindset - a philosophy. It says "we are going to use our personnel in different and creative ways in order to make it harder for the other team to know what's coming."

which is almost the antithesis of the Fleck approach - "do the same thing over and over again."

I always go back to a quote from Tom Kelly. when asked what his role was as Manager of the Twins, Kelly said (paraphrasing) "my job to to put players in a situation where they have the highest possibility of success and the lowest risk of failure."

in other words, if player X doesn't run a certain pass route well, you don't ask him to run that route. you find a different route he runs well and have him do that. and you take that approach to all of your players. don't force a square peg into a round hole just because that's what the scheme says you should do.
 

going back to the OP -

watching the Bowl Games and comparing those offenses to MN, the one word that really jumped out to me was.....

Creativity.

Creativity is a mindset - a philosophy. It says "we are going to use our personnel in different and creative ways in order to make it harder for the other team to know what's coming."

which is almost the antithesis of the Fleck approach - "do the same thing over and over again."

I always go back to a quote from Tom Kelly. when asked what his role was as Manager of the Twins, Kelly said (paraphrasing) "my job to to put players in a situation where they have the highest possibility of success and the lowest risk of failure."

in other words, if player X doesn't run a certain pass route well, you don't ask him to run that route. you find a different route he runs well and have him do that. and you take that approach to all of your players. don't force a square peg into a round hole just because that's what the scheme says you should do.
I tell this story a lot of times, but Kirk C had an interview years ago after I think it was we beat Indiana on a long TD pass. (It was a game that wasn't well attended but IMO was a turning point for the program's attitude at that time.)

Anyway Kirk was asked about calling the play and he said "Players make plays. I don't call that play unless they have shown me they can make it."
 

You simply can’t win with poor QB play. We had guys wide open all over the field in the North Carolina game and each pass was an adventure. This game was an eye opener for me as I thought we had our guy. Our professional counterparts are demonstrating what happens with an abysmal Qb behind center. We could have easily been 7-5 if we had better than 53% accuracy from QB position
Agreed, it was a bummer after that game.

Also showed me NC wasn't all that great either and that played out too. They beat us bad but they had chances to beat us worse and just didn't do it... and they left ways to let us in that game too ... we just dorked that up.
 

Agreed, it was a bummer after that game.

Also showed me NC wasn't all that great either and that played out too. They beat us bad but they had chances to beat us worse and just didn't do it... and they left ways to let us in that game too ... we just dorked that up.
Agree Slab, we were still in that game in the second half despite ourselves!
 

going back to the OP -

watching the Bowl Games and comparing those offenses to MN, the one word that really jumped out to me was.....

Creativity.

Creativity is a mindset - a philosophy. It says "we are going to use our personnel in different and creative ways in order to make it harder for the other team to know what's coming."

which is almost the antithesis of the Fleck approach - "do the same thing over and over again."

I always go back to a quote from Tom Kelly. when asked what his role was as Manager of the Twins, Kelly said (paraphrasing) "my job to to put players in a situation where they have the highest possibility of success and the lowest risk of failure."

in other words, if player X doesn't run a certain pass route well, you don't ask him to run that route. you find a different route he runs well and have him do that. and you take that approach to all of your players. don't force a square peg into a round hole just because that's what the scheme says you should do.
Hey don’t use reason and logic here! That’s not allowed!
 




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