Sport Analytics says Claeys going for 2 had only 4% swing

[Pompous Elitist]

The way he explained it he could effectively end the game if they make the conversion. If they fail and OSU scores a TD Claeys research showed that the coach will kick the XP 95% of the time to send it to OT, the likely worst case scenario. If they go for two they still have to convert.

Overtime can go on for a long, long time. Injuries can happen, fatigue, etc a factor. Claeyes had a roughly 40% statistical chance of getting the 2 pt conversion and getting it done with. Why not go for it?

The interesting question now is in future games what if we are in OSU's shoes and score a late TD and can kick the XP to go to OT or try the 2 pt conversion. What will Claeys do? I think he will kick the XP...but I don't know that for certain.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

The way he explained it he could effectively end the game if they make the conversion. If they fail and OSU scores a TD Claeys research showed that the coach will kick the XP 95% of the time to send it to OT, the likely worst case scenario. If they go for two they still have to convert.

Overtime can go on for a long, long time. Injuries can happen, fatigue, etc a factor. Claeyes had a roughly 40% statistical chance of getting the 2 pt conversion and getting it done with. Why not go for it?

The interesting question now is in future games what if we are in OSU's shoes and score a late TD and can kick the XP to go to OT or try the 2 pt conversion. What will Claeys do? I think he will kick the XP...but I don't know that for certain.

I disagree. See Michigan last year. He could have kicked a 19 yard field goal to force OT. At home. They went for the win. It didn't work, but I will never fault a coach for playing his hand to win.

 

[SKOOKM]

My guess is that the opponents' win probability would have moved from 2.5% down to around 0.5% - so ballpark it a 2% swing that way if the 2-pt. was successful.

That's probably correct, but also keep in mind that a team that goes from a 2.5% chance of winning to a .5% chance of winning had their odds cut by 80%.

 

[Maroon92]

I hated the call-- make the other team go for two to tie. What I really hated was the play call-- that was close to being a pick and ran back the other way to make it a 5 point game. If you are going to go for two they can't make it a dangerous play where the results would make even a worse outcome

 

[cncmin]

The call was fine to go for 2. Make it and the game's essentially over. Miss it and the other team will tie it IF they score, with greater odds than if the margin were 8 points, but in either case the opposing coach will go for the tie.

The decision to do a short out pattern, on the other hand, was horrible. It nearly resulted in a pick-2 (probably should have), which would have made the ending much more interesting.